1

Flat Earth Investigations / Re: What is the true map of the earth?

« Last post by DuncanDoenitz on Today at 01:40:03 PM »

Tom,

Maggie Teneva.  I think you misunderstand; I wasn't implying satire or humour with regard to Maggie, I was just making the point that the article was about making air-journeys more enjoyable, and its relevance to flight cancellations was a single line in the summary implying that cancellations were frequent, but without any evidence or analysis. 

Continental Airlines.  The article is 12 years old, and refers to Boeing 757s.  Almost no-one uses 757s for transatlantic travel these days and, unless I am missing your point, it confirms my assertion that jetstreams impede, rather than assist, westbound travel. 

"ETOPS stops".  There is no such thing.  ETOPS refers purely to the aircraft's range from a suitable diversion airport at cruising speed on a single engine. 

East-to-west winds.  You earlier drew a distinction between "jetstreams" and "winds"; I am throwing it back at you.  Your graphic, and the Wikipedia article from which it is drawn, is about wind; specifically trade-winds.  The whole point of trade winds is that they assist sailing ships, which generally operate at sea level.  They are part of a Hadley Cell, in which the high altitude component flows away from the equator and the low altitude element towards the equator, forming the trade wind.  I reiterate that jetstreams are almost exclusively a west-to-east phenomenon. 

Cancelled/rescheduled flights.  I would refer you again to the LATAM Santiago/Melbourne service as an example.  Three months of scheduled flights, 3 times per week, only one flight cancelled.  Of the remainder, every flight left Santiago on the day planned, most within an hour of the scheduled departure time.  Not replanned.  Not rescheduled.  Not removed. 

2

Flat Earth Investigations / Re: What is the true map of the earth?

« Last post by Tom Bishop on Today at 10:42:20 AM »

The quote from Maggie teneva (who she?) is simply a throwaway line at the end of an article about entertaining your kids on longhaul.

Are you claiming that she is joking? She is clearly not, even if the article is about childcare on an airplane. It is not a satire article. She is known as a travel writer. penncapital-star.com -- "Travel writer Maggie Teneva posits these and other benefits derived from exploring the world outside our own cocoons"

The "stopping for fuel" link doesn't go anywhere.

Did you try googling the text?

I got results for the page and was able to put it into web archive to see the content: https://web.archive.org/web/20120114084248/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203436904577152974098241982.html

The Continental Airlines example is undated, has no reference, and (if true) sounds like poor planning by  the airline in not using aircraft with apprpriate capacity/range.

Well yes, that's what the article says. The planes were traveling a distance within the distance of the Boeing 757's 4100 miles range. The planes were within their range, but still ran out of fuel. This proves that the flights as they are claimed to exist are dependent on a balance of physical phenomena.

Here is a related graphic:

ETOPS is not a restriction; it is a relaxation of previously existing routes that require aircraft to route within 1-hour flying time of a suitable diversion airfield.  In the case of the Airbus A350, this can now be extended to 5hrs 30min at single engine cruise speed (frightening but true), meaning that only Antarctica is off limits (unless, of course, one of the ice-runways is the destination). 

The USAF, being outwith ICAO regulations, is not limited by ETOPS.  The United States maintains "landing strips on certain uninhabited islands in remote locations" for military operational, security and diplomatic purposes. 

Aircraft often divert from route for reasons of security, medical or technical emergency, but beyond the apocryphal stements you have made, I challenge you to identify a single recent occurance made purely for a splash and dash.  Any commercial aircraft diverting from its planned route purely for a fuel stop would find its captain and dispatcher having a series of one-way conversations with management. 

Planes also make ETOPS stops when they run out of fuel due to winds. According to the above graphic, there were 14 Continental trans-Atlantic non-stops stopping for fuel between Jan 1 to Jan 8, 2012. They took off and thought they had enough fuel according to weather radar, but were mistaken on how the wind conditions would change.

And yes, jetstreams are a perpetual phenomenon, but no they are not alway at the extreme stengthsyou suggest, and almost without excdeption are a west-to-east direction.  Apart from local eddies there is absolutely no, general, assistance, anywhere on Earth, to westbound travel. 

Incorrect. Maps of the Trade-winds show that winds can travel in both Easterly and Westerly directions in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres:

Your statement "Flights are canceled all the time, especially long haul flights" is simply untrue.  For example, I've just looked at data on FR24 for LATAM's Santiago-Melbourne service LA804/805; run with a Boeing 787 Dreamliner.  The service operates 3 times a week in each direction and between 15 Feb and today, 12 weeks, 36 planned return trips; one cancellation.

This is covered on the https://wiki.tfes.org/Issues_in_Flight_Analysis page

Terminology

Airliners call a cancelled flight "rescheduled":

  “ How often are flights cancelled/diverted?

Not often. Flights are more often rescheduled than cancelled or diverted. In the event that a flight is cancelled whether under the airline's control or caused by a severe weather or air traffic disruptions, many airlines will rebook your flight or cancel your remaining flight(s). ”

Removed

Oh Great: United Airlines Redefines “Cancelled” - Suggests that cancelled flights are alternatively called "removed" to improve cancellation stats.

3

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump

« Last post by honk on Today at 01:19:48 AM »

Again, I still don't understand exactly how wanting someone who has been charged with multiple crimes to have their day in court is wanting to "eliminate due process;" much less how having that same person entirely avoid having their day in court by being elected president and then abusing their office to make their legal problems go away is totally fine.

4

Flat Earth Investigations / Re: What is the true map of the earth?

« Last post by DuncanDoenitz on May 13, 2024, 08:23:31 PM »

They don't. Flights are canceled all the time, especially long haul flights. See this quote by travel writer Maggie Teneva:

“Long-haul flights are often associated with long layovers and delays or cancellations.”

If there are unexpected changes to the jet stream or winds mid-flight, a non-stop flight might even stop for fuel:

“ Dozens of Continental Airlines flights to the East Coast from Europe have been forced to make unexpected stops in Canada and elsewhere to take on fuel after running into unusually strong headwinds over the Atlantic Ocean.

The stops, which have caused delays and inconvenience for thousands of passengers in recent weeks, are partly the result of a decision by United Continental Holdings Inc., the world's largest airline, to use smaller jets on a growing number of long, trans-Atlantic routes. ”

Per ETOPS, plane flight routes are required to be in vicinity of airports or landing strips for unexpected stops like that. Even long haul flights over oceans need the capability to make detour routes to islands with landing strips in case something like the above happens. The US Military is even known to maintain landing strips on certain uninhabited islands in remote locations for ETOPS purposes.

The quote from Maggie teneva (who she?) is simply a throwaway line at the end of an article about entertaining your kids on longhaul. 

The "stopping for fuel" link doesn't go anywhere. 

The Continental Airlines example is undated, has no reference, and (if true) sounds like poor planning by  the airline in not using aircraft with apprpriate capacity/range.   

ETOPS is not a restriction; it is a relaxation of previously existing routes that require aircraft to route within 1-hour flying time of a suitable diversion airfield.  In the case of the Airbus A350, this can now be extended to 5hrs 30min at single engine cruise speed (frightening but true), meaning that only Antarctica is off limits (unless, of course, one of the ice-runways is the destination). 

The USAF, being outwith ICAO regulations, is not limited by ETOPS.  The United States maintains "landing strips on certain uninhabited islands in remote locations" for military operational, security and diplomatic purposes. 

Aircraft often divert from route for reasons of security, medical or technical emergency, but beyond the apocryphal stements you have made, I challenge you to identify a single recent occurance made purely for a splash and dash.  Any commercial aircraft diverting from its planned route purely for a fuel stop would find its captain and dispatcher having a series of one-way conversations with management. 

And yes, jetstreams are a perpetual phenomenon, but no they are not alway at the extreme stengthsyou suggest, and almost without excdeption are a west-to-east direction.  Apart from local eddies there is absolutely no, general, assistance, anywhere on Earth, to westbound travel. 

Your statement "Flights are canceled all the time, especially long haul flights" is simply untrue.  For example, I've just looked at data on FR24 for LATAM's Santiago-Melbourne service LA804/805; run with a Boeing 787 Dreamliner.  The service operates 3 times a week in each direction and between 15 Feb and today, 12 weeks, 36 planned return trips; one cancellation.  And the flight times:

Santiago-Melbourne; quickest 12.55 (16 Feb), longest 14.45 (1 March). 
Melbourne-Santiago; quickest 11.38 (12 March), longest 12.35 (23 March). 


Action80;  You haven't said when your flight was, or whether it was over land or sea, but its not unusual.  Over land there is normally good radar coverage and separation is normally monitered by ATC controllers.  Oceanic; aircraft are cleared to fly a route between specific waypoints, but the principal separation is made by altitude.  Separation used to be 1000feet but for the last 20 years or so this was reduced to just 500feet, with a strict regime of altimeter-inspections and aircrew compliance.  At about a mile, a 500foot difference would probably be indistinguishable. 

5

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Covid-19 vaccine two shots

« Last post by Lord Dave on May 13, 2024, 05:38:02 PM »

The vaccine was created to modify political views and eventually control the mind; ironically, the people most likely to take the vaccine were the least in need of mind control. They were already subservient to big brother. You wouldn't notice any difference in their behavior before and after taking the vaccine.

And those most needing identification are the rebels.  The outliars.  The lone wolves.  And the ones most likely to complain and not wear facial ID blocking masks.

6

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Covid-19 vaccine two shots

« Last post by Rushy on May 13, 2024, 03:00:42 PM »

The vaccine was created to modify political views and eventually control the mind; ironically, the people most likely to take the vaccine were the least in need of mind control. They were already subservient to big brother. You wouldn't notice any difference in their behavior before and after taking the vaccine.

7

Flat Earth Investigations / Re: What is the true map of the earth?

« Last post by Action80 on May 13, 2024, 02:43:49 PM »

Why are westbound transatlantic routes located hundreds of km away from eastbound routes?

I would say it is a good thing the routes are spaced so far apart.

I can remember traveling to Mexico City at 14 and the captain came over the radio, informing the passengers to look out the port windows to see another jet passing in the opposite direction. It is rather strange and frightening to see another jet pass by so closely at 35k ft.

8

Flat Earth Investigations / Re: What is the true map of the earth?

« Last post by Tom Bishop on May 13, 2024, 02:58:06 AM »

You're talking about the jetstreams as being a constant phenomenon.

Correct. The jetstreams are present year-round.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a9181/how-the-dual-jet-stream-sparks-this-weird-summer-weather-15634917/

"The jet stream is a year-round feature of our atmosphere, but the double jet stream phenomenon is more common in winter."

https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/jet-stream-weakening

"In the UK, we feel the influence of the polar jet stream (which is also sometimes called the ‘mid-latitude’ or the ‘eddy-driven’ jet stream), which forms due to the difference in the temperatures between the pole and equator. On its northern side lies colder air, and on its southern side warmer air – so its position is important for what type of weather we experience in the UK. It waxes and wanes with the seasons, being strongest in winter, but is a year-round phenomenon."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_stream

"The northern hemisphere polar jet flows over the middle to northern latitudes of North America, Europe, and Asia and their intervening oceans, while the southern hemisphere polar jet mostly circles Antarctica, both all year round."

They aren't, they are variable, in location, direction and velocity.  Like I said, its just a wind.  If its above 60 kts, as you say, they term it a jetstream, but its still just a wind. 

And you are absolutely correct that favourable jetstreams (like other winds) are exploited for the purpose of speed and economy, but if the jetstream is absent, or unfavourable, the flights still occur.

They don't. Flights are canceled all the time, especially long haul flights. See this quote by travel writer Maggie Teneva:

“Long-haul flights are often associated with long layovers and delays or cancellations.”

If there are unexpected changes to the jet stream or winds mid-flight, a non-stop flight might even stop for fuel:

“ Dozens of Continental Airlines flights to the East Coast from Europe have been forced to make unexpected stops in Canada and elsewhere to take on fuel after running into unusually strong headwinds over the Atlantic Ocean.

The stops, which have caused delays and inconvenience for thousands of passengers in recent weeks, are partly the result of a decision by United Continental Holdings Inc., the world's largest airline, to use smaller jets on a growing number of long, trans-Atlantic routes. ”

Per ETOPS, plane flight routes are required to be in vicinity of airports or landing strips for unexpected stops like that. Even long haul flights over oceans need the capability to make detour routes to islands with landing strips in case something like the above happens. The US Military is even known to maintain landing strips on certain uninhabited islands in remote locations for ETOPS purposes.

Just look at the post-Covid-resurrected Qantas/LAN services between Chile and Australasia; they take place on schedule every time, eastbound and westbound.  They can't be that anomalous can they? 

Now try Googling Air France flight AF174 on 8 May.  (Or here's a link);

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af174?utm_campaign=website&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sendgrid.com#351eba3d

Airbus A350 F-HUVC departed Paris CDG as AF174 for Mexico City but developed a problem over Newfoundland and returned to CDG.  Flight tracking data shows that the return leg was performed almost completely along the same route and at a similar altitude as the outbound leg.  Pretty dumb with a 300mph wind wasn't it, or maybe the airline actually knew the windspeed?

The Jet Stream can change in nature within hours. This is why those non-stop flights stopped for fuel in the previous quote I gave. Those planes didn't take off knowing that the winds would be unfavorable. Planes have a network which tracks the Jet Stream to follow the best path in real time. If that was the path it took, then it is simply because the flight logistics people determined that it was the best path at that specific time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_stream

"Jet streams may start, stop, split into two or more parts, combine into one stream, or flow in various directions including opposite to the direction of the remainder of the jet."

In this case, the jet stream probably just moved out of the way and the plane had enough fuel in its wings to take a long trip back, or there was a favorable path at a lower altitude.

Most typically, the planes take different routes on the return trip:

https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/29729/why-are-westbound-transatlantic-routes-located-hundreds-of-km-away-from-eastboun

Why are westbound transatlantic routes located hundreds of km away from eastbound routes?

Looking at flights between NY and London (click to see route):

BA 185 (EGLL - KEWR)
United 941 (EGLL - KEWR)
United 16 (KEWR - EGLL)

The FlightAware anticipated routes are quite similar in both directions, but the actual routes for past flights are really remote from each other:



The two westbound routes are either 800 km north or 1,000 km south of the eastbound route (the dotted line shows the shortest path).

Why are the two westbound routes different and so remote from each other? Why this difference of about 1,800 km?

Why BA 185 route seems to be composed of two arcs?

Did the pilots changed their mind in flight because of the jet streams? Is it related to ETOPS constraints, or alternate airport at Santa Maria? or something else?

9

Flat Earth Investigations / Re: What is the true map of the earth?

« Last post by DuncanDoenitz on May 12, 2024, 09:09:48 PM »

You're talking about the jetstreams as being a constant phenomenon.  They aren't, they are variable, in location, direction and velocity.  Like I said, its just a wind.  If its above 60 kts, as you say, they term it a jetstream, but its still just a wind. 

And you are absolutely correct that favourable jetstreams (like other winds) are exploited for the purpose of speed and economy, but if the jetstream is absent, or unfavourable, the flights still occur.  Just look at the post-Covid-resurrected Qantas/LAN services between Chile and Australasia; they take place on schedule every time, eastbound and westbound.  They can't be that anomalous can they? 

Now try Googling Air France flight AF174 on 8 May.  (Or here's a link);

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af174?utm_campaign=website&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sendgrid.com#351eba3d

Airbus A350 F-HUVC departed Paris CDG as AF174 for Mexico City but developed a problem over Newfoundland and returned to CDG.  Flight tracking data shows that the return leg was performed almost completely along the same route and at a similar altitude as the outbound leg.  Pretty dumb with a 300mph wind wasn't it, or maybe the airline actually knew the windspeed? 

10

Flat Earth Investigations / Re: What is the true map of the earth?

« Last post by Tom Bishop on May 12, 2024, 07:48:49 PM »

A jetstream is just a wind, and I accounted for it in my calculation.  A look at any jetstream map will show that they are predominently westerly in the southern hemisphere, which corresponds with my previous statement and, if it is assisting the eastbound flight will it not be hindering the westbound which is occuring simultaneously and at similar latitudes? 

We've also done Jeran's thing before.  Simultaneous to the "supersonic" speeds is a series of altitude changes which an F-16 would struggle with.  Its just a batch of missing data on aircraft position; when it recovers the position data it integrates the delta-position over time to determine speed.

The speeds you provided for the Southern Hemisphere flights were too low. You stated "40 kts acting as a headwind hampering LAN801 and assisting LAN804". Jet streams are far faster, and we know that long haul flights take advantage of the Jet Stream.

https://skybrary.aero/articles/jet-stream

"To be considered a Jet Stream, the accepted minimum speed limit is 60 knots. The speed of the Jet Stream is typically 100 kts (nautical miles per hour) but can reach 200 kts over North America and Europe in the winter. Speeds of 300 kts are not unheard of, particularly over south-east Asia."

Commercial flights would fly at the the plane's cruising speed + the Jet Stream speed. See this article from a Northern Hemisphere event over the Atlantic Ocean:

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/jet-stream-flights-speed-of-sound/index.html

'In February 2019, a Virgin Atlantic plane flew at 801mph from Los Angeles to London, reaching its top speed over Pennsylvania thanks to a 200mph jet stream – although it slowed down to a mere 710mph once it hit the ocean. The aircraft – a Boeing 787 Dreamliner – usually has a cruising speed of around 560mph. Virgin founder Richard Branson described it as flying “faster than any other commercial non-supersonic plane in history.”'