Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - AATW

Pages: < Back  1 ... 196 197 [198] 199 200 ... 235  Next >
3941
Flat Earth Investigations / Re: NASA Live Stream
« on: May 13, 2018, 07:36:13 AM »
what if satellites are ground-based and just made like they were space-based with positional tracking and propaganda.
Then I'd ask you what these dishes are pointing at.

http://sawyertravel.blogspot.co.uk/2009/03/our-satellite-dish.html

And if you're going to say "how do you know they're pointing at anything?" I have 2 points:

1) Why would satellite providers send you a disk for free as Sky do if those dishes don't actually point at anything. What a ridiculous waste of money, why would they do that?
2) I have personal experience of my signal being blocked by a neighbour putting up scaffolding, I know how precisely these dishes must be pointed to receive a signal and how they stop working if they don't have clear line of sight to the satellite. Someone else in another thread suggested the signals could be something else in the sky but offered no explanation or suggestion as to what technology could make an object hover in a stationary position for years on end. What would power it? What would stop it moving?

3942
I believe his argument is that if there is a bulge to the earth, because of centripetal acceleration, then naturally the water should have gone to the equator since that is easier to move than the land.
There's a bulge because as the earth cooled it was spinning, the centripetal force made the earth bulge slightly.
But at that stage of the earth's history there was no water, the crust was just cooling molten rock.
I haven't watched the rest of the video but the first point is pretty silly and shows no understanding of the theories about the history of the earth's formation.
He seems to imagine an earth as it is now bulging because of the centripetal force, that isn't what happened.

3943
Occam's razor isn't hard baked into the scientific method, it is just a guideline. If it were then we wouldn't have Relativity or Quantum Theory which may be many things but simple isn't one of them. If you agree it is flawed in the sense that it is not some universal law that the simplest explanation is always the correct one then why do you have a Wiki page about it (which honestly isn't well written, you can write a page like that to back up any idea if you word it in the right way). More work on the Wiki?

3944
You may not like it, but the conclusions in the Occam's Razor page in our Wiki are the simplest explanations.
And the only things wrong with that are

1) Simplest is subjective. There is no objective "simplometer" you can use to determine which is the simplest.
2) That page has been written with a FE slant, so of course you make it sound like your explanation is the simplest.
3) Occam's razor is not a fundamental law of the universe, it's just a guideline.

3945
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Stand up proof
« on: May 12, 2018, 12:58:14 PM »
The amount and height of swells on the ocean varries throughout the day and by location. If we were set up a timelapse a video camera we would see that sometimes one can see more or less of that hotel throughout the day.

Except...

Quote
Whenever I have doubts about the shape of the earth I simply walk outside my home, down to the beach, and perform this simple test. The same result comes up over and over throughout the year under a plethora of different atmospheric conditions.
—Tom Bishop

https://wiki.tfes.org/Experimental_Evidence

Doesn't seem to have been a problem for you.

Quote
This is why the experiments are performed on large bodies of standing water, as there can be issues with waves and swells on ocean conditions.

But your experiment wasn't on standing water, it was across a bay open to the ocean...
Are we expected to believe that over a stretch of 23 miles there was no wave or swell over 20 inches high?

3946
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Stand up proof
« on: May 12, 2018, 12:19:20 PM »
You may use a telescope to modify your perspective angles and push back that point where the rail road tracks meet together, but so too does Rowbotham describe that you can use a telescope to reverse the sinking ship effect on flat bodies of water, showing the effect is not due to any curvature of the earth and more to do with angular limits of the scene. A telescope cannot see behind a hill of water.
Right. Which brings us back to the original experiment which started this thread. The pictures are taken by zooming so why hasn't the zoom "restored" the distant objects



With a viewer height of 2 feet quite a lot of the hotel is occluded, from 6 feet it isn't. On a flat earth it should be the same.
And if you're going to talk about waves and vanishing points then you'll have to explain why this is the explanation for the observation at 2 feet looking at a hotel 11 miles away, but in your experiment you claim that with a viewer height of 20 inches (again, less than 2 feet) and looking at a distant beach 23 miles away (i.e. more than 11) you can see the beach "all the way down to the shoreline.

Why aren't waves and vanishing points an issue for you?

Quote
Experiments > Non-Experiments

Agreed. How funny then that every time you're show experiments which don't show what you want them to show you just shout "FAKE!" or dismiss them on spurious grounds, while refusing to do any experiments yourself.

3947
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Stand up proof
« on: May 11, 2018, 10:01:44 PM »
It appears that now you are talking about a different experiment than the first "stand up proof" experiment in the Metabunk link. In that link the author "proves" his claim by sitting down and standing up at the shore of a beach.
That was the original experiment, later on in the thread someone posts the pictures I’m referencing. It is basically the same experiment, just with pictures taken at 3 different heights and the first one taken at 6 feet instead of 2 as with the original experiment.

Quote
You appear to be saying "Okay okay you got me... but explain THIS picture." Is that right? To add on top of that you attempt an attack on another experiment performed 10 years ago?
You appear to be dodging the issue, as usual.
Even in the original experiment the initial photo is taken at 2 feet.
Fun fact 20 inches is less than 2 feet.

So please explain how in these photos taken from 2 feet your explanation for the occlusion is waves and swells, but in The Bishop Experiment you claim to be able to see across a 23 mile expanse of sea and see the distant beach “all the way down to the shore line” from a viewer height of 20 inches.
When your experiment was conducted is irrelevant, were waves different 10 years ago?

3948
I've given a whole list of things above that would have to be true in order for the earth to be flat.
Possible? I guess so, again in the purest sense. Plausible in any way? Not remotely.
Right, and we've generated similar lists as an argument against the Earth being round. The Wiki page on Occam's Razor is a good example of a mediocre argument (though not one I'm looking to outright remove - enhance, perhaps). I don't like that format, since it doesn't add much to the discussion; or, at the very least, it carries little persuasive power. You and I will probably find different things to be highly implausible.
The Occam's Razor page is weak. If you want me to go through it then I can but as you say, it's not based on observations, it's just saying "wow, NASA claim to be able to send rockets into space, I don't believe that's possible so isn't it simpler to think they can't?". I mean, what kind of argument is that?! It's too subjective.
If you can point me in the direction of a better link then I'd like to have a look.

3949
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Stand up proof
« on: May 11, 2018, 05:35:01 PM »
40 foot high waves? The Metabunk author is just standing up and sitting down at the shore of the beach.
Look at the picture I linked to. In that example he takes 3 photos from 6 feet, 40 feet and 80 feet.
So even if we accept that 6 feet waves are occluding the distant hills in the first photo, that cannot be the explanation for the second and 3rd.
And how come waves and swells aren't an issue in your Bishop experiment when your eye level is allegedly 20 inches.

Your claim is that in the photo I linked to waves are the explanation for occlusion with a viewer height of 6 feet, but in the Bishop Experiment you claim:

Quote
With a good telescope, laying down on the stomach at the edge of the shore on the Lovers Point beach 20 inches above the sea level it is possible to see people at the waters edge on the adjacent beach 23 miles away near the lighthouse. The entire beach is visible down to the water splashing upon the shore. Upon looking into the telescope I can see children running in and out of the water, splashing and playing. I can see people sun bathing at the shore and teenagers merrily throwing Frisbees to one another. I can see runners jogging along the water's edge with their dogs. From my vantage point the entire beach is visible.

You don't see any problem here?

3950
That actually makes sense IF you can demonstrate that your methodology is less likely to lead to a false conclusion or cannot lead to a false conclusion.
Can you?
I doubt you'll entertain it, but I can certainly try. One of the main reasons the legal system has to rely upon reasonable doubt is that we can't (or at least really don't want to) try to reproduce a murder over and over until we're sure that we reproduced the perfect murder. Even if we take the absurdity of that proposal out of the equation, common law has its benefits when trying to figure out things that happened in the past. The Zetetic approach is that of one who is not concerned much with time. I'm not in a rush, and the Earth is unlikely to suddenly change shapes [or, rather, if it does, I'll have more important concerns to deal with], and outside of some violent individuals sending me the occasional death threat, the Earth being flat has very little impact on my life.

There is no reason for me not to take my time, and to carry on expanding my worldview rather than settling on a false conclusion.
Hmm. We need to be careful here because we are on the verge of having a sensible debate.

I do see the difference between trying to determine what has happened and trying to determine the truth about, say, the shape of the earth.
But there are common threads. In order to determine what is true we have to look at evidence. In my example that would be witness testimony, forensic evidence and so on. For something like the shape of the earth that would be experimental data. Observations.

But in both cases the evidence only adds to the probability that the theory is correct. Nothing is definitive in the purest sense.
I've given a whole list of things above that would have to be true in order for the earth to be flat.
Possible? I guess so, again in the purest sense. Plausible in any way? Not remotely.

3951
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Stand up proof
« on: May 11, 2018, 02:00:41 PM »
Those are called waves and swells.
That doesn't explain this picture:

https://www.metabunk.org/attachments/20170313-094520-f0g0s-jpg.25848/

As I showed elsewhere, waves can only block more than their own height if they are higher than your eye level:


And given that in the picture on metabunk the middle part of the image is 40 foot high, unless you're suggesting the waves are that high, that explanation doesn't work.

EDIT: Also, how come waves and swells don't get in the way when you're doing your (strangely undocumented) Bishop Experiment where over a 20 mile expanse of water you claim to be able to see the distant beach all the way down to the shoreline.

3952
I don't particularly care - if your methodology leads you to a false conclusion, then I have little interest in it and will pursue alternatives.
That actually makes sense IF you can demonstrate that your methodology is less likely to lead to a false conclusion or cannot lead to a false conclusion.
Can you?

3953
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Testable difference between FE and RE
« on: May 11, 2018, 01:23:36 PM »
Wow. So you've proven it definitively...and yet, somehow, pretty much everyone on earth disputes that.
Maybe your "proof" isn't quite as watertight as you think?
Knowledge takes time to propagate; and given how rapidly the FE movement is growing, we're doing quite well. Nonetheless, thank you very much for your concern trolling. It's always entertaining.
You say that. Einstein's theories superseded hundreds of years of Newtonian mechanics and fairly quickly revolutionised our understanding of lots of things.
They became adopted because they work. They explain observations, they make predictions which have been confirmed by experimentation.
GPS wouldn't work if they didn't take into account relativistic time dilation effects, for example.

Rowbotham was writing long before Einstein and his ideas have not caught on because they are, to use a technical term, complete horseshit.
You claiming they are proven carries no weight when practically no-one agrees with you.

It is quite endearing that you think your ideas are catching on. The internet has allowed crazies to talk to one another far more efficiently but this is never going to be a mainstream thing. A couple of hundred people in a Jury's Inn in Birmingham where one of the speakers was an NHS Manager does not have the markings of a movement which is sweeping the...disc.

3954
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Testable difference between FE and RE
« on: May 11, 2018, 11:59:13 AM »
You just need to provide your current proof of the shape of the earth and there would be no need for further discussions.
It's already out there and we've discussed it to death - I agree that there is no need for further discussions, but there's no pleasing the malcontents. They'll always demand more; or, as you just did, they'll simply pretend that it never happened.
Wow. So you've proven it definitively...and yet, somehow, pretty much everyone on earth disputes that.
Maybe your "proof" isn't quite as watertight as you think?

3955
Okay. Let's say I didn't shoot Tom. What does it matter that 10 people claim they saw me (you could easily round up 10 angry RE'ers to say something incriminating about me - some people really dislike me)?

Really? How is that is possible? You are so very charming.

Quote
If your methodology leads to a false conclusion, then frankly I don't want to hear much about it.

Well, the more relevant question is whether there is ANY methodology which CANNOT lead to a false conclusion.
I'd say no, no there isn't.
If you know of one then let's hear it.

The legal process is, in theory, about discerning truth. Inherent in it is the admission that it is imperfect, hence reasonable doubt.
But there is no perfect system and as evidence stacks up for something it becomes less and less reasonable to doubt it.
It might not be a perfect way of determining what is true but it's probably the best we can do.

Can I definitively say that the earth is round? In the truest sense, no. But is there any reasonable doubt? None at all.

3956
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Stand up proof
« on: May 11, 2018, 09:49:31 AM »
I am wondering about the 'troll' theory, although not wanting to be rude to Tom, of course. Some of the replies are preposterous in a cleverly funny sort of way. OTOH Tom is a member of the board of the FE organisation, surely he would not be risking his reputation with other members. The video of the recent conference suggested the members were entirely serious.
The possibilities with Tom are:

1) Troll
2) Not a flat earth believer but just enjoys debate, likes debating from an impossible to defend standpoint.
3) A true believer who is a mess of cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias.

Can't quite decide which.

And just to add the strength of evidence should not be assessed by how easy it is to dismiss - any evidence can be dismissed - but how probable or valid those dismissals are. So in my example is it possible that all 10 witnesses mistook the shooter for Pete? Yes, it's possible. And is it possible that he just happened to handle the gun before the shooting. Again yes, it's possible. But are these things probable, especially in combination? As I've said elsewhere, there's a reason courts convict if something is proven beyond reasonable doubt. There will always be some doubt.

3957
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Stand up proof
« on: May 11, 2018, 09:33:33 AM »
As I've said in other threads, all evidence is easily dismissed.

"Pete shot Tom, 10 witnesses saw him do it"
"Could they all be mistaken? Maybe it was just someone who looked like Tom"
"Pete's fingerprints were on the gun..."
"How do you know Pete didn't handle the gun earlier in the day, dropped it and then someone else with gloves on picked it up and shot Tom?"

The dismissals can get increasingly ridiculous and desperate, but they are easy to do. It's not an indication that the evidence is not strong.

3958
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Distances between cities
« on: May 11, 2018, 09:06:50 AM »
Most of these discussions do not end with us crying "fake". It is possible to create a reasoned argument that is difficult to dispute. You just are not smart enough.
You don't have to be smart to dispute evidence as I've shown above. You just have to be determined to cling to your beliefs.
Your last sentence adds weight to my theory that you are just a troll and don't believe any of this.

But if you are serious then it's weird how you think of yourself as smart when you spent two days not being able to understand a simple experiment with a laser and a boat - talking to me in a condescending way and saying it was me who didn't understand it...before you finally realised I was right.
And then what did you do...?
Yep, called it fake.

Your starting point was "the earth is flat so the experiment must be flawed".
You posted a video which had a bunch of spurious objections to it.
I explained patiently why all those objections were spurious.
And when you finally understood the experiment and realised your objections were wrong...you just declared it fake and ran away.

But yeah, you're definitely the smart one in this conversation...

3959
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Distances between cities
« on: May 11, 2018, 08:56:41 AM »
And here Tom is once again refusing to believe things which show him to be wrong.
 
I have only been here 24 hours, but I looked at some older threads and I admit there does appear to be a pattern. Now this relates to the question of irrationality, which I raised in a separate thread. Is ignoring contrary evidence itself evidence of irrationality? Irrationality is maintaining contrary patterns of belief. So ignoring evidence does not necessarily entail irrationality. If you haven’t seen the evidence, you haven’t acquired a contrary belief.

OTOH, why is the person ignoring the evidence? If they felt it was easily refuted, they would refute it immediately. The fact that they don’t, suggests that they consciously or unconsciously accept the evidence.  There is the famous story (possibly apocryphal) of the man who refused to look through Galileo’s telescope, for fear that it might confirm a theory he did not want to believe.

I shall persist a bit longer. My goal is to understand why FEers maintain their belief system, in the face of what appears to be massive contrary evidence. Note I haven’t considered any evidence that requires complex scientific instrumentation, or accepting the statements of the scientific establishment. Just people looking at their watches at airports, plotting reported flight times on flat paper, etc.

What makes it irrational is the selective way evidence is ignored.
Tom has said a few times recently "if the evidence of a round earth is so strong, why can't you provide any irrefutable proof?"
And the answer is if someone is willing to stretch credulity to breaking point you can refute any evidence.
I said in another thread that there's a reason why in a UK court a case must be proven beyond reasonable doubt, it is impossible to prove anything absolutely outside of the limited language of mathematics.
So a ridiculous conversation which I imagined in another thread could go:


"I don't believe kangaroos exist"
"What? But every biologist recognises that kangaroos exist."
"That is just argument from authority, that doesn't prove anything."
"But...ok, I've seen a kangaroo!"
"Liar! You're part of the great kangaroo conspiracy. Or maybe you just think you have"
"What?! Ok, look. Here's a photo I took of a kangaroo."
"Looks fake to me, your Photoshop skills are quite impressive though."
"Fine...here's some film of one then from a nature documentary."
"Yeah, made by people who want to perpetuate the great kangaroo myth. Have you heard of CGI?"
"Right! Look. We're at a zoo, there's a kangaroo..."
"...Looks animatronic to me..."


Point being, if someone is determined enough to dispute or dismiss or call fake anything which shows them to be wrong about something then they'll never accept anything as definitive proof.
And that's what Tom does. It's what you have to do if you want to cling on to flat earth belief.
The story about Galileo is interesting, on the Wiki page about Rowbotham there is a similar story:

Quote
When finally pinned down to a challenge in Plymouth in 1864 by allegations that he wouldn't agree to a test, [Rowbotham] appeared on Plymouth Hoe at the appointed time, witnessed by Richard A. Proctor, a writer on astronomy, and proceeded to the beach where a telescope had been set up. His opponents had claimed that only the lantern of the Eddystone Lighthouse, some 14 miles out to sea, would be visible. In fact, only half the lantern was visible, yet Rowbotham claimed his opponents were wrong and that it proved the Earth was indeed flat

It's hard to reason with people like that. I do it because I don't think this nonsense should be left unchallenged.

Someone said to me that this is different from other conspiracy theories. You can believe that the moon landings were faked but in doing so you don't have to deny the very nature of reality itself as you have to if you're going to believe in a flat earth.

3960
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Distances between cities
« on: May 11, 2018, 07:11:11 AM »
This was obvious, I don't know why you were warned.
Agreed. Junker, that was ridiculous.
The quote was completely relevant to the discussion and backed up Tonto's claim that Tom accepted the accuracy of Doppler radar.
And he didn't just quote it, he also explained why it was relevant.

Quote
"Flight times and (great circle) distances were obtained from various online databases and calculators."
Discredited.

And here Tom is once again refusing to believe things which show him to be wrong. Lazy.
The point is, you dispute those online calculators, but the results show them to be accurate.
I've flown a lot over the last few years with work. If you're on a long haul flight you can see the "time to destination", it shows you where you are, what is nearby, how fast you're going, how long it is to your destination. Are you suggesting that all this is inaccurate? That they don't really know how fast they're going? How close they are to arriving? How, then, do they keep on arriving on time? And yes, yes, I know flights can be delayed sometimes. But once they're in the air in my experience they mostly get you there in the time they say they're going to.

Just claiming the airline industry don't know how fast they're going or where they are or how far they're travelling because the distances prove you wrong make you look like an idiot.

Pages: < Back  1 ... 196 197 [198] 199 200 ... 235  Next >