[AATW]

Those people are authorities in their field.

I didn’t think you liked listening to authorities?
And your definition of an authority does tend to be whoever tells you what you want to hear or believe.

Biden vs Trump was a foregone concussion.
Harris vs Trump is harder to call. It does feel that the momentum is with Harris - as honk said Trump’s main attack vector is now his weakness. Now he is the rambling old dude.

But there’s a long way to go, a lot can happen.
Obviously if Trump loses bigly again he’ll claim without evidence it was all rigged against him again.

[AATW]

Biden had a younger woman of color as his VP.

He had a younger Indian woman as his VP. She only became black recently, remember?

[Tom Bishop]

Those people are authorities in their field.

I didn’t think you liked listening to authorities?

Someone is saying that Rasmussen Reports is lying to us or skewing the facts, so it had better be someone who knows what they are talking about. Our wiki cites plenty of authorities for its points that another authority is wrong, and I generally expect the same thing in any argument. 

If I go to Ramussen Reports their presidential polling from yesterday says that Trump is winning the polls 49/46. A week ago he was winning 49/45. So Kamala's jump since the DNC event may not be that impressive. They point out that their polling has been consistent while liberal pollsters are skewing their polls by polling fewer Republicans. Why should I believe that this long-established polling organization is misinformation?

You gotta have something better than "honk said so".

[garygreen]

Those people are authorities in their field.

ahahahahhahhhhahahaaahahahahahaha

Those [NYT] surveys, however, have attracted scrutiny from an array of pollsters either due to their lack of transparency about the sampling methodology or from oversampling Democrats.

cool, let's examine these claims.

1) lack of transparency about sampling methodology.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/times-siena-poll-methodology.html

and there's literally a section at the bottom of the poll data itself called "full methodology" that describes...well, i don't wanna give it away. but it has to do with the full methodology of the polling.

2) oversampling democrats.




lol i know numbers are tough for you, but notice how they didn't oversample democrats at all. by self-reporting, they spoke to an equal number. by L2 data, they spoke to more republicans than democrats. your source simply doesn't understand the difference between weighted and unweighted values. probably because he doesn't understand nyt's methodology. lmao this is way too funny.

3) bonus claim: "Exit polls from the 2020 election may provide a benchmark for estimating the partisan affiliations of voters."

ahahahahhahhhhahahaaahahahahahaha yeah demographics never change over time, that's why we just use polling demographics from 1776 or whatever.

fam you really gotta stop taking people at their word simply because you both vote for the same party.

[Rushy]

I think it's important to remember that candidates typically poll best during and immediately after their convention. I expect Harris' numbers to keep climbing for the next few weeks (polls are lagging indicators!), then around the middle of October we should start seeing numbers closer to a "settled state". Trump also had an assassination attempt pump his numbers, so his will probably settle out far lower than Harris'.

We're still not seeing Harris poll at numbers anywhere close to Biden's 2020 performance or Hillary's 2016 performance. That is still troubling for Democrats as none of the polls are pulling her out of the margin of error.

For reference, Harris is currently +2.0 nationally. These are the historical numbers: August 23, 2020: Biden +7.8 | August 23, 2016: Clinton +5.5

[AATW]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy5ekxlwzgo

Interesting. RFK was splitting the "mental" vote which will now all be behind Trump. Could have some impact.

[Rushy]

I'd imagine the majority of Kennedy's voters only do so because it's a "I don't like either of these options  " protest vote. I expect Stein's percentage to receive an increase, and maybe Trump will get a small bump from the true "I love Kennedy's policies!" nutters.

[Tom Bishop]

your source simply doesn't understand the difference between weighted and unweighted values.

Still waiting for an authority to be cited.

RFK Jr.

Dems are currently in confusion and denial on what this means.

Not only has RFK endorsed Trump, he is actively campaigning for him now and appeared with Trump in a rally. Trump has offered him a role in his administration to lead up task forces to fulfill his pet projects on big pharma and JFK disclosure which RFK Jr.'s supporters were voting for him on. If RFK Jr. supports were hooked to Kennedy for those topics, they will obviously now be voting for Trump.

https://twitter.com/BehizyTweets/status/1827131693326860539

[Tom Bishop]

CNN has a feeling that this might be bad for Kamala.

https://twitter.com/_johnnymaga/status/1827121488085848444

[Lord Dave]

your source simply doesn't understand the difference between weighted and unweighted values.

Still waiting for an authority to be cited.

RFK Jr.

Dems are currently in confusion and denial on what this means.

Not only has RFK endorsed Trump, he is actively campaigning for him now and appeared with Trump in a rally. Trump has offered him a role in his administration to lead up task forces to fulfill his pet projects on big pharma and JFK disclosure which RFK Jr.'s supporters were voting for him on. If RFK Jr. supports were hooked to Kennedy for those topics, they will obviously now be voting for Trump.

https://twitter.com/BehizyTweets/status/1827131693326860539

Huh.

So Trump promised RFK a job, power, authority, and money in exchange for his support.

Tom... what's that called again?

CNN has a feeling that this might be bad for Kamala.

https://twitter.com/_johnnymaga/status/1827121488085848444

Would they vote for Trump tho?

[Tom Bishop]

Would they vote for Trump tho?

Trump has offered him a role in his administration to lead up task forces to fulfill his pet projects on big pharma and JFK disclosure which RFK Jr.'s supporters were voting for him on. If RFK Jr. supports were hooked to Kennedy for those topics, they will obviously now be voting for Trump.

[Lord Dave]

Would they vote for Trump tho?

Trump has offered him a role in his administration to lead up task forces to fulfill his pet projects on big pharma and JFK disclosure which RFK Jr.'s supporters were voting for him on. If RFK Jr. supports were hooked to Kennedy for those topics, they will obviously now be voting for Trump.

So what you're saying is that RFK's voter base is only interested in the things Trump is promising that RFK will be allowed to investigate.

How shallow.
Also what would you call the first part of the post?

[honk]

The president doesn't need a task force or a commission to declassify documents. He can simply give the order and it's done. In fact, according to Trump himself, all he has to do is think about declassifying a document for it to be official. There's also the very obvious fact that he could have declassified any of these documents during his first term in office - and as it happens, he had said he would, only to apparently change his mind. Giving RFK Jr. a meaningless job doesn't change anything. It's entirely up to the president whether these documents are declassified at all, and I think you'd have to be very gullible to think that this time Trump will totally follow through on declassifying the files after he already broke his word on this same subject.

Also, Vance's incredible visit to a donut shop has to be seen to be believed:

[Tom Bishop]

Actually this RFK-JFK task force announcement about falls in line with what Trump is saying in that 2018 link:

"Trump announced on Thursday that the public must wait another three years or more before seeing material that must remain classified for national security reasons — more than five decades after Kennedy was killed Nov. 22, 1963 in Dallas, Texas."

It has been six years since that announcement and now it's time to see the rest of those files. RFK is telling his supporters to vote for Trump if they want to see him head up that effort, and the efforts to end corruptions in the involved organizations. He has recently been stating in public that he will work to end the Deep State with Trump.

RFK Jr.'s supporters really have two options: Vote for Trump and see RFK Jr. head up commissions on Big Pharma and JFK, the two main pet projects RFK Jr. has been campaigning on, or not vote for Trump and risk a Harris win and see nothing. RFK Jr. will not be in a Harris Administration. So, obviously, RFK Jr.'s supporters will be voting Trump.

Again, what RFK Jr. is doing here is more than just endorsing Trump, he is actively campaigning for him. He is telling his supporters that through Trump can they see his platform succeed.

https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/1827762158341644409

Also what would you call the first part of the post?

It's called winning.

[garygreen]

your source simply doesn't understand the difference between weighted and unweighted values.

Still waiting for an authority to be cited.

i dunno, i feel like the nyt is a pretty solid authority on "how does the nyt do polling." but that's me.

or do you need an authority to tell you that 207 is equal to 207?

[honk]

Actually this RFK-JFK task force announcement about falls in line with what Trump is saying in that 2018 link:

"Trump announced on Thursday that the public must wait another three years or more before seeing material that must remain classified for national security reasons — more than five decades after Kennedy was killed Nov. 22, 1963 in Dallas, Texas."

It was Trump's decision to make everyone wait another three years before declassifying the documents. Nobody made him do it. He had the power to declassify the documents at any point during his presidency, and he said he would do it before breaking his word and saying "nope, actually we need to wait another three years before they can be released." And if Trump is reelected, he will once again have the power to declassify the documents at any point - or refuse to do so and keep them classified, like he did in his first term. He doesn't need a task force to do it, and he doesn't need to give RFK Jr. a made-up position to do it. All he has to do is give the order. It is literally that simple. I don't know why Trump decided not to declassify the documents in his first term (Trump doesn't give a shit about national security), but anyone who seriously cares about declassifying them would be out of their mind to trust Trump on this.

[Tom Bishop]

Is Kamala promising anything about JFK disclosure or Big Pharma? No? Then she won't be getting RFK's voters.

[markjo]

Is Kamala promising anything about JFK disclosure or Big Pharma? No? Then she won't be getting RFK's voters.

Kamala has already taken on big pharma:
https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/kamala-harris-pharma-healthcare-president-ira/722286/
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/15/statement-from-vice-president-kamala-harris-on-lower-prescription-drug-prices/

As for JKF disclosure...  Is that really one of the bigger problems facing voters today?

[honk]

Is Kamala promising anything about JFK disclosure or Big Pharma? No? Then she won't be getting RFK's voters.

Yeah, you're probably right. Anyone dumb enough to support a crank like RFK Jr. for president probably doesn't have the critical thinking skills to realize that the president can very easily declassify any files he want, that RFK Jr. is being offered a meaningless sinecure to court his voters, and the fact that Trump already said he'd declassify the files and broke his word in his first term.

[honk]

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trumps-arlington-cemetery-campaign-event

Just an insane story all around.