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Offline Roundy

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #200 on: December 19, 2013, 06:03:09 AM »
I predict Eagles vs Chiefs in the Superbowl.  The NFL loves a good story.
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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #201 on: December 19, 2013, 04:05:15 PM »
I'll back off my 'maybe the greatest defense ever' comment and settle in at 'top 5 pass defense ever.'

http://www.footballperspective.com/new-york-times-post-week-15-2013/
Quote
The league average Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt this season is 5.97, which would also be an N.F.L. record. (The previous high was 5.93, set last season.) The Seahawks have allowed just 3.40 ANY/A, easily the best in the league (San Francisco and Carolina are second and third at 4.62 and 4.73). But since the ANY/A league average has been rising for years, we cannot just compare Seattle to teams of yesteryear. We also need to measure how far from the league average each pass defense has performed.

The simplest way to measure deviation from the average is to measure the standard deviation among all pass defenses in the N.F.L. In 2013, the standard deviation of the ANY/A ratings of the 32 teams is 0.93. As a result, Seattle’s pass defense is 2.76 standard deviations above the 2013 mean of 5.97. If the Seahawks can maintain that level of dominance, it will rank as the fourth best season since 1970.

By this method, the top pass defense was fielded by Tampa Bay in 2002, the year the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl. In 2002, Tampa Bay allowed 2.34 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt; that season, the league average was 5.35 and the standard deviation was again 0.93. As a result, the Tampa Bay pass defense was 3.22 standard deviations better than average. In the postseason, the Buccaneers allowed just three touchdowns while scoring four touchdowns on interception returns.
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Offline Rama Set

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #202 on: December 19, 2013, 05:08:36 PM »
Great for a rookie can still be seen as average. But Brady's body of work for his career is exceptional.
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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #203 on: December 19, 2013, 07:07:41 PM »
I'll back off my 'maybe the greatest defense ever' comment and settle in at 'top 5 pass defense ever.'

http://www.footballperspective.com/new-york-times-post-week-15-2013/
Quote
The league average Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt this season is 5.97, which would also be an N.F.L. record. (The previous high was 5.93, set last season.) The Seahawks have allowed just 3.40 ANY/A, easily the best in the league (San Francisco and Carolina are second and third at 4.62 and 4.73). But since the ANY/A league average has been rising for years, we cannot just compare Seattle to teams of yesteryear. We also need to measure how far from the league average each pass defense has performed.

The simplest way to measure deviation from the average is to measure the standard deviation among all pass defenses in the N.F.L. In 2013, the standard deviation of the ANY/A ratings of the 32 teams is 0.93. As a result, Seattle’s pass defense is 2.76 standard deviations above the 2013 mean of 5.97. If the Seahawks can maintain that level of dominance, it will rank as the fourth best season since 1970.

By this method, the top pass defense was fielded by Tampa Bay in 2002, the year the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl. In 2002, Tampa Bay allowed 2.34 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt; that season, the league average was 5.35 and the standard deviation was again 0.93. As a result, the Tampa Bay pass defense was 3.22 standard deviations better than average. In the postseason, the Buccaneers allowed just three touchdowns while scoring four touchdowns on interception returns.
Huh, that is pretty damn convincing. But if this Seahawks D is going to be remembered as one of the best ever (and it is obviously quite good) it's going to have to dominate the playoffs and win the Superbowl. It may not be fair, but that's one of the keys to leaving a legacy on defense (76 Steelers, 85 Bears, 00 Ravens, 02 Bucs)

And, looking at their schedule, the only great offense they beat was the Saints (in impressive fashion). If they can maintain passing defensive dominance against Brady or Manning (Or a healthy Rodgers), then I'll consider them an all-time great passing D.
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Offline Sean

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #204 on: December 22, 2013, 10:08:10 PM »
Just saw Flacco fall for no reason. Unable yo really watch the game, just bits while at work, looks like his knee is hurting?
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Offline Sean

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #205 on: December 23, 2013, 12:49:20 AM »
Patriots are handling Baltimore quite nicely.
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Offline junker

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #206 on: December 23, 2013, 02:25:57 AM »
Great win, NE.

More importantly, Seattle lost.  Assuming SF handles their business tomorrow, the NFC West will come down to the last week.  If Seattle biffs it against STL, then SF has a chance at the division since they would hold the tie break.  If that happened, I would guarantee a return trip to the SB for the 49ers.

Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #207 on: December 23, 2013, 03:44:20 AM »
well that was pretty devastating.
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Offline Rama Set

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #208 on: December 24, 2013, 01:38:23 AM »
With Romo out I give Dallas a shot at beating Philly.
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Offline Roundy

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #209 on: December 24, 2013, 01:46:01 AM »
With Romo out I give Dallas a shot at beating Philly.

Ha!  That's kind what I thought... without Romo in there who can we count on to choke when it really matters?  But really their defense should do that job for us.  It is awful.  They won't be able to keep up.
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Offline Rama Set

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #210 on: December 24, 2013, 01:49:14 AM »
With Romo out I give Dallas a shot at beating Philly.

Ha!  That's kind what I thought... without Romo in there who can we count on to choke when it really matters?  But really their defense should do that job for us.  It is awful.  They won't be able to keep up.

S'truth. Chip Kelly is probably fapping over the terribleness of Dallas' defense. Hope it is pathetically close before Dallas flushes the game away after one too many suppositories.
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Offline junker

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #211 on: December 24, 2013, 06:06:30 AM »
A very interesting week 17 is ahead of us.

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Offline Sean

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #212 on: December 24, 2013, 03:28:43 PM »
Patriots will take the #1 seed.
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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #213 on: December 24, 2013, 04:20:40 PM »
Patriots will take the #1 seed.

False.

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Offline Sean

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #214 on: December 24, 2013, 07:39:15 PM »
Denver will lose... Probably not, but its more likely than New England losing.
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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #215 on: December 24, 2013, 09:05:21 PM »
Denver will lose... Probably not, but its more likely than New England losing.

The odds say otherwise, my good man.

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Offline Roundy

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #216 on: December 24, 2013, 09:38:41 PM »
Don't be surprised if the Eagles slip into the Superbowl.  Seriously, nobody in the NFC is playing better right now.

Also, I can't imagine either the Broncos or the Patriots losing this weekend.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2013, 09:40:23 PM by Roundy »
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Offline Sean

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #217 on: December 24, 2013, 09:53:23 PM »
I don't need odds, i have gut, junker.
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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #218 on: December 24, 2013, 10:13:32 PM »
Don't be surprised if the Eagles slip into the Superbowl. 

You need to make it to the playoffs first ;)

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Offline Roundy

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #219 on: December 24, 2013, 10:54:26 PM »
Don't be surprised if the Eagles slip into the Superbowl. 

You need to make it to the playoffs first ;)

As far as I'm concerned this game this weekend is a playoff game.

I would never put it past the Cowboys to upset us and get in themselves.  But it's just one of four we need to win to get there.
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