[Action80]

After the many years of the naysaying and the supposed "deboonking", flat earth is enjoying an evident resurgence.

The globesters are out of ammunition. They will soon start Armageddon.

[markjo]

After the many years of the naysaying and the supposed "deboonking", flat earth is enjoying an evident resurgence.

The globesters are out of ammunition. They will soon start Armageddon.

Oh?  Then why did several prominent FE’ers like Jeranism renounce FE after the Final Experiment?
https://www.unilad.com/technology/space/flat-earth-explained-jeranism-antarctica-273856-20241219

[AATW]

After the many years of the naysaying and the supposed "deboonking", flat earth is enjoying an evident resurgence.

Is it? If it’s evident then there should be some evidence. Is there?

[Pete Svarrior]

Is it? If it’s evident then there should be some evidence. Is there?

Yeah. It's fairly easy to observe the shift in public conversation around the subject. Shall we fast-forward past the conversation where you proudly declare yourself not to want to look, demand that I look for you, and I refuse and call you lazy?

Oh?  Then why did several prominent FE’ers like Jeranism renounce FE after the Final Experiment?

Oh no, not Jeran. Whatever will actual FE'ers do now that he's not here to shit everything up?

But, to answer your question of "why": he probably decided you lot are easier to scam these days, so he switched target audiences. I don't know enough about social media marketing to tell you if that's good business.

[AATW]

Yeah. It's fairly easy to observe the shift in public conversation around the subject.

Over what time period? Over 20 years? Well sure. 20 years ago this wasn't even a thing - or not one that I'd ever heard anything about.
There wasn't a public conversation around the subject.
Now it's a thing. So no argument there.
I just wondered what recent change prompted this thread.

I have looked for data and struggled to find anything which backs up the "exponential growth" you have talked about.
I mean, that was possibly true at some point but if it had continued to be the case then it would now be pretty much the mainstream view.
But it isn't.

[Action80]

Is it? If it’s evident then there should be some evidence. Is there?

AATW to lazy to look at the numbers for this site:

FORUM STATS

You take a look and see.

It seems the most users ever at this site was yesterday at 11:40:33.

Today, 2306.

[Crudblud]

And yet the most recent post on the FE section is weeks old, and most threads there don't even get to the double digits in replies. The most popular thread on the forum is easily the Trump thread, which is approaching 13000 replies over the course of a decade, and that mostly consists of the same half dozen people trading inane barbs over and over again. Whether or not flat earth theory is popular, this place remains niche at best.

[Action80]

Is the amount of posts (new or not) as relevant to popularity as the number of visitors?

The forum in which the post is located does not impact the patently obvious flatness of the earth beneath our feet. It is like you are claiming the Trump thread could only exist on a ball, which is ridiculous.

I have looked for data and struggled to find anything which backs up the "exponential growth" you have talked about.

Page views here are certainly "exponentially," higher than in past years.

Just finished the 1^st Quarter and we have approximately 42 percent page views for all of last year.

[AATW]

Is it? If it’s evident then there should be some evidence. Is there?

AATW to lazy to look at the numbers for this site:

Oh dear Lord.
Please tell me that this whole thread isn't just predicated on that. I noticed that some time ago - posts are down but last year a massive increase in page views.
I asked Pete about that and he said:

Also, back to the question of page visits - Google Analytics seems to think our page visits have been slowly decreasing, but not significantly so. Definitely not a 5x increase on there. Similarly, there has not been an increase in search traffic to the forum - that's basically a constant stream.

Of course, the former only captures people who allow Google Analytics to run, but the proportion of real humans there tends to stay pretty steady. So, my current hunch is that the huge increase SMF is seeing is purely bots.

So...

[Action80]

So buttons on your underwear...you think all the page views are due to bots?

Sour grapes.

[AATW]

So buttons on your underwear...you think all the page views are due to bots?

Obviously not all - I mean, we are viewing pages now. But Pete thinks that explains the increase in views.
It's not my view, it's his. You can read his answer as well as I can.

[WTF_Seriously]

.... this place remains niche at best.

Perhaps.  But you must remember....

I hope you understand we're maintaining a valuable resource here....

[Tom Bishop]

The participation in the forum is not connected to the interest in FE. People are absolutely still interested in debating others who they perceive as wrong. This site still gets thousands of views a month. The TFES Wiki is responsible for the drop in forum participation. In the first few years from its inception and resurgence TFES had nothing, which was more welcoming to casual speculation and debate by the public normies. As the content of the Wiki grew, the discussion waned, in perfect lockstep.

People have realized that there is content there that they would have to catch up on and rebut. They can't, so they don't. The average person wasn't educated much about science or astronomy and can't really contribute to discussions on the three body problem and the astronomy problems pointed out. They are only capable of observing this content in awe and wonder as a spectator sport rather than one they are capable of participating in.

In the last several years, when we do happen get a new poster off the street, they are often posting something which they obviously haven't read the Wiki on, and subsequently and coincidentally stop posting once it is pointed out to them. My criteria for success has always been to give people enough valid science content on FE so that they: Stop. Posting. This was a triumphant mission success. The waning of people posting here is a truly wonderful relief, and represents the bulldozing of TFES over its opponents. I bask in this success every day.

Many of the RE'ers who do still post and argue come from a previous era when TFES had nothing, and have a series of arguments which they know trumps the vaguely defined FE model they were introduced to. But now TFES does have content, and this introduces new roadblocks to the psychology of someone deciding if they want to stick around and argue this. People aren't arguing against TFES anymore for the same reason they aren't big forums with people arguing against Geocentricity: There is pre-existing content there which they would have to rebut, and which they are incapable of doing easily. FE has turned into a more mature science which is beyond the grasp of a normal person to address.

[Pete Svarrior]

Over what time period?

Probably 100 years or so, but of course it's been a continuous upward trend over the last 20, and particularly accelerated in the last 10. Over the last 5, it's been slower, but steadily trending up. It kind of doesn't matter what time period you pick - it's lookin' pretty good.

Over 20 years? Well sure. 20 years ago this wasn't even a thing

Incorrect. You just happened not to be involved.

- or not one that I'd ever heard anything about.

Look, I don't mean this to sound too mean, but what you do or don't hear about is not really that significant. If it makes you feel any better, I don't know much about football, and the offside offence is something I can't even make a coherent joke about. If I worked the way you do, I could extrapolate and say that since I know jack about it, football is not "even a thing". But the truth is much simpler - what you and I see is rarely a good litmus test.

I just wondered what recent change prompted this thread.

My guess would be TikTok. It's the current mainstay of FE proliferation among younger people, and people are doing great there - probably similar in success to what this place has been 10 years ago.

I mean, look, we're nowhere near the majority viewpoint, that much is obvious. But if it pushes us from the current extremely-well-documented 10-20% of the population (depending on which countries you inspect) to 12-22%, that's a good, steady pace.

I have looked for data and struggled to find anything which backs up the "exponential growth" you have talked about.

But you don't need to look - I've done the looking for you. I have, time and time again, shown you studies which clearly indicate it. And it's the fact that you've not responded to that at all that makes me thoroughly unwilling to engage with you in any discussion of verifiable facts. You don't respond to verifiable facts. You just repeat your claim.

I dunno... would it help if I sent you the same list of links again? Intuitively, I don't think it would, because you never respond to the data within. You just keep saying you haven't seen it, but you truly obviously have - I made sure of that. I don't know how to fix your problem of not reading the studies that have been readily presented to you, or of not internalising the information that's presented to you. I can't fix your zealotry. I can't fix the attitude of you just pretending you're amnesiac about any information that confronts your preferred worldview.

Which brings me back to my usual conundrum - I don't think you're a drooling, mouthbreathing moron. I think you've seen the studies I gave you earlier, and I think you've read them - so your claim of not knowing about them falls apart. But that only leaves the possibility of you being malicious - and I don't want to make that accusation lightly.

[AATW]

Probably 100 years or so

OK, well that is unarguable. But Action seems to have started this thread on the basis of the page views going up on here recently, which we talked about before and you agreed it was most likely bots. So my response to Action starting this thread on that basis is: lol.

of course it's been a continuous upward trend over the last 20, and particularly accelerated in the last 10. Over the last 5, it's been slower, but steadily trending up.

Has it? Continuous? Over 20 years I'd agree there's been a massive growth but I'm not convinced it's been continuous and I'm not convinced it's continuing.
As I said I have struggled to find decent data on that but if you have any then I'd be interested to see it.
By what metric is it continuing to trend upwards and what data can you point to which demonstrates that?

Incorrect. You just happened not to be involved.

You're being a bit pedantic. That's like someone saying that 30 years ago the internet wasn't a thing and me saying "well aktualley...."
Because sure, the internet did exist then, I was using it - but I did Computer Science at Uni, I'm an outlier. I checked and apparently about 16 million people were online in 1995. So it was certainly becoming a thing and growing exponentially. But most people outside of the tech world didn't use it. It wasn't ubiquitous like it is now.
So fine, I'm sure FE was a "thing" 20 years ago, but it was very niche. I'd argue it still is in a way, but it's certainly far more in the public consciousness now than it was 20 years ago. No argument there.

Look, I don't mean this to sound too mean, but what you do or don't hear about is not really that significant.

Not as an individual but I'd suggest public awareness of FE is significantly higher than it was 20 years ago. Can we agree that?
Now all I need is to see some data to demonstrate that it is continuing to grow. I'm not even sure what a good metric of that is. Belief in FE? Awareness of it?

My guess would be TikTok. It's the current mainstay of FE proliferation among younger people, and people are doing great there - probably similar in success to what this place has been 10 years ago.

OK. I don't know how to easily measure that. I had a quick look and found this data on the flatearth hashtag
https://ads.tiktok.com/business/creativecenter/hashtag/flatearth/pc/en?countryCode=US&period=7
That's a bit of a blunt metric though. I'm too old for TikTok so I don't really know how to get meaningful data from it.

But you don't need to look - I've done the looking for you. I have, time and time again, shown you studies which clearly indicate it.

You've shown me a couple of one off surveys. You don't need to post any links, I know which ones you mean.
What I'm not seeing - and I don't think exists - is a set of surveys over time which demonstrate a continuous and continuing growth.
Every 10 years there's a census in the UK which means you can quite easily track population growth and demographic change over time.
I'm not sure that level of data exists for FE. Which isn't a criticism, it just makes it harder to assess how it has grown over time and whether it is continuing to.

It's certainly true that conspiracy theories in general have gained popularity over the last couple of decades - fuelled by the internet and, honestly, people's ignorance.
I found this from a 2021 survey into conspiracy theories more generally:

https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/conspiracy-vs-science-survey-us-public-beliefs

10% agreed that the earth was flat, 9% unsure.
But compare that with 9% who believed that vaccines inject microchips and 19% who were unsure if they did.
Sheesh!

I dunno... would it help if I sent you the same list of links again?

If they contain different data to these then maybe. But I think these are the ones we've talked about before:

https://www.gallup-international.bg/en/40990/how-many-people-believe-in-flat-earth-and-everything/
https://www.sciencealert.com/one-third-millennials-believe-flat-earth-conspiracy-statistics-yougov-debunk
https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2024/09/10/how-many-people-think-the-earth-is-flat-and-doesnt-move/

I've never said I haven't seen those. What I've said is I don't think that demonstrates a continued and continuing growth.
It's just a couple of snapshots of opinions in specific places and times. If you had a comparable survey every year for the last 20 years then it would be easy to track the growth of FE belief over time, I'm just not sure that exists.

FE belief has definitely grown over the last 20 years. You think that's good, I think it's lamentable. I just don't know if it's continuing to grow or whether it's had its day.
I'm not even saying it isn't growing. I just think it's a bit complicated to measure.

[AATW]

As the content of the Wiki grew, the discussion waned, in perfect lockstep.

And as we all know, correlation is the same as causation

People have realized that there is content there that they would have to catch up on and rebut. They can't, so they don't.

lol

[markjo]

As the content of the Wiki grew, the discussion waned, in perfect lockstep.

And as we all know, correlation is the same as causation

Correlation is not causation, but it is a good place to start looking.