[garygreen]

I don't think "we know people who do weird voodoo shit with cats" is a bridge too far.

"my friend 'went to a voodoo ritual'" is already a bridge too far for me to take anything that follows at face value

[Action80]

^Basement staircases are probably "a bridge too far" as well.

[Tom Bishop]

So much passion.

[Rushy]

I don't think "we know people who do weird voodoo shit with cats" is a bridge too far.

"my friend 'went to a voodoo ritual'" is already a bridge too far for me to take anything that follows at face value

I don't think your lack of friend diversity should reflect upon Action69's story.

[Rushy]

Poll update:

National: Harris +2.2 -- This Day In History:  October 3, 2020: Biden +7.8 | October 3, 2016: Clinton +3.2
Arizona: Trump +1.7
Nevada: Harris +1.1
Wisconsin: Harris +0.8
Michigan: Harris +0.7
Pennsylvania: Tie
North Carolina: Trump +0.6
Georgia: Trump +1.5

[Lord Dave]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fox-news-proposes-dates-possible-second-trump-harris-debate-2024-10-09/

Trump turns down fox news invite for debate with Harris.  Apparently he doesn't want a rematch even on a safe network like Fox.  Weird, right?

[rooster]

Where do these polls happen? I've always wanted to be Polled.

[Rushy]

Where do these polls happen? I've always wanted to be Polled.

You have to be the kind of person that always answers when random phone numbers call you.

Poll update:

National: Harris +1.8 -- This Day In History: October 11, 2020: Biden +10.3 | October 11, 2016: Clinton +6.0
Arizona: Trump +0.5
Nevada: Trump +0.2
Wisconsin: Harris +0.3
Michigan: Trump +0.9
Pennsylvania: Trump +0.4
North Carolina: Trump +0.5
Georgia: Trump +0.5

[Tom Bishop]

It sounds like the party's over for Kamala.

https://unherd.com/newsroom/the-kamala-harris-honeymoon-is-coming-to-an-end/

This is the race Democrats feared. Less than a month before the US election, Donald Trump is regaining the slight edge he held before Democrats convened in Chicago to nominate Kamala Harris. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average in battleground states, Trump trailed Harris from late August until late September. Now, though, he’s back on top at 48.4 to 48.1. His lead may be fractional — and Harris is up two points in the popular vote — but the numbers have Kellyanne Conway feeling good.

Alongside a picture of the RCP numbers, the pollster argued this week that Trump is “in his best polling ever era, even as media outlets are likely undercounting his voters — again”. On CNN, Harry Enten crunched the numbers too. “Let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020. What happens then?” he asked on Tuesday. “Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes.”

In his Wednesday column, Charles Blow of the New York Times lamented that FiveThirtyEight now gives Harris and Trump “close-to-even chances” of winning. “The campaign doesn’t need a post-joy strategy,” he wrote, “but it definitely needs an in-addition-to-joy strategy.” FiveThirtyEight‘s win probability chart mirrors RCP‘s battleground chart in that as Harris’s DNC bump has waned, Trump’s numbers have gone up, closing the gap significantly in just the last few weeks.

[Lord Dave]

It sounds like the party's over for Kamala.

https://unherd.com/newsroom/the-kamala-harris-honeymoon-is-coming-to-an-end/

This is the race Democrats feared. Less than a month before the US election, Donald Trump is regaining the slight edge he held before Democrats convened in Chicago to nominate Kamala Harris. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average in battleground states, Trump trailed Harris from late August until late September. Now, though, he’s back on top at 48.4 to 48.1. His lead may be fractional — and Harris is up two points in the popular vote — but the numbers have Kellyanne Conway feeling good.

Alongside a picture of the RCP numbers, the pollster argued this week that Trump is “in his best polling ever era, even as media outlets are likely undercounting his voters — again”. On CNN, Harry Enten crunched the numbers too. “Let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020. What happens then?” he asked on Tuesday. “Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes.”

In his Wednesday column, Charles Blow of the New York Times lamented that FiveThirtyEight now gives Harris and Trump “close-to-even chances” of winning. “The campaign doesn’t need a post-joy strategy,” he wrote, “but it definitely needs an in-addition-to-joy strategy.” FiveThirtyEight‘s win probability chart mirrors RCP‘s battleground chart in that as Harris’s DNC bump has waned, Trump’s numbers have gone up, closing the gap significantly in just the last few weeks.

And?  Do you have a point?

[Tom Bishop]

And?  Do you have a point?

Yes

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1845452116090835138

[Lord Dave]

And?  Do you have a point?

Yes

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1845452116090835138

Clinton was up 10 points in 2016 and still lost.  Your polls are meaningless.

[Tom Bishop]

It is correct that the people polled tend to vote differently than the people who vote. However, Trump is beating those prior trends.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/12/polls-trump-vs-harris-biden-clinton/75532448007/

[Rushy]

Clinton was up 10 points in 2016 and still lost.  Your polls are meaningless.

Keep in mind that Trump outperformed his polls in both 2016 and 2020. While it's possible that Harris can break the trend and outperform her polls, I don't think it's probable. As it stands right now, a neck-and-neck polling situation for Harris means Trump wins by about three points. Her campaign knows this is the case but her supporters seem to bury their heads in the sand.

[Lord Dave]

Clinton was up 10 points in 2016 and still lost.  Your polls are meaningless.

Keep in mind that Trump outperformed his polls in both 2016 and 2020. While it's possible that Harris can break the trend and outperform her polls, I don't think it's probable. As it stands right now, a neck-and-neck polling situation for Harris means Trump wins by about three points. Her campaign knows this is the case but her supporters seem to bury their heads in the sand.

But those polls are national polls and that could mean she loses the popular vote but wins the EC.  It's not how many vote for you, it's only those who win in battleground states.

[Rushy]

But those polls are national polls and that could mean she loses the popular vote but wins the EC.  It's not how many vote for you, it's only those who win in battleground states.

Harris is currently losing in every swing state polling average except Wisconsin.

[honk]

Of course there's no way to prove this, but I'd be willing to bet that Trump's standing in the polls improving isn't a case of Kamala losing popularity so much as it is Trump gaining popularity - or more precisely, regaining popularity that he's lost. This has happened before - Republicans make noise about abandoning Trump in the wake of a scandal or bad news, he loses support, and eventually the Republicans come crawling back to him. Clearly, Kamala's best chance of winning is to damage Trump close enough to the election that he won't recover his support in time. Less an October surprise than a very early November surprise.

[garygreen]

genuine question(s) for trump voters -- why do you want to vote for trump? what is the thing about him that you believe will benefit you and/or the nation? or, if you like: why should i vote for trump, too?

these are not meant to be sarcastic questions at all, and i'm not gonna argue with your answers. just curious.

[juner]

Weird, right?

no

[Tom Bishop]

There is a pretty simple explanation for why Kamala's popularity dropped after her recent media tour.

https://twitter.com/TiffanyFong_/status/1845927364594913744