How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« on: January 08, 2020, 01:26:58 PM »
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/glacier-national-park-is-replacing-signs-that-predicted-its-glaciers-would-be-gone-by-2020/ar-BBYJejT?li=BBnbcA1

"The signs at Glacier National Park warning that its signature glaciers would be gone by 2020 are being changed. The signs in the Montana park were added more than a decade ago to reflect climate change forecasts at the time by the US Geological Survey, park spokeswoman Gina Kurzmen told CNN."

So here, there is the clear admission that climate change predictions are based on computer modeling which is based on whether a one or zero is entered when some keyboard warrior (who is probably heavily invested in oil/coal/gas) decides to enter it.

Why are we still listening to this non-science?
« Last Edit: January 09, 2020, 12:08:22 PM by totallackey »
I didn't say (conversion of) thermal energy wasn't involved at all.
A rocket does not create thrust by converting thermal energy.

Offline ChrisTP

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Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2020, 01:55:48 PM »
Climate change isn't based on a computer model and it is a reality, even if it's difficult to predict/forecast. The climate is changing, this is something we can observe.
Tom is wrong most of the time. Hardly big news, don't you think?

Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2020, 12:07:13 PM »
Climate change isn't based on a computer model and it is a reality, even if it's difficult to predict/forecast. The climate is changing, this is something we can observe.
I should have wrote predictions are based on computer modeling.

Sorry...allow me to change that.
I didn't say (conversion of) thermal energy wasn't involved at all.
A rocket does not create thrust by converting thermal energy.

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Offline Rama Set

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Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2020, 12:27:49 PM »
And the computer modeling is based on data from observation.

Offline somerled

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Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2020, 01:50:23 PM »
So the original computer model based on data from observations was obviously wrong. Simple case of cherry picking the wrong data .

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Offline Rama Set

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Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2020, 01:53:22 PM »
A local phenomenon not occurring based on a global model is hardly a sign that the entire enterprise is a farce.

Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2020, 04:44:31 PM »
And the computer modeling is based on data from observation.
So the observations must be based on all factors, something which is not happening.
I didn't say (conversion of) thermal energy wasn't involved at all.
A rocket does not create thrust by converting thermal energy.

Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2020, 10:03:18 PM »
Climate change isn't based on a computer model and it is a reality, even if it's difficult to predict/forecast. The climate is changing, this is something we can observe.
I should have wrote predictions are based on computer modeling.

Sorry...allow me to change that.
Correct. As is the weather forecast.
And they get it wrong too. The weather and climate and complex are chaotic (in the mathematical sense).
That doesn't mean that the science is completely wrong even if the models are imperfect.
The debate about human caused climate change is all but over in science

https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus-intermediate.htm
« Last Edit: January 09, 2020, 11:10:28 PM by AllAroundTheWorld »
If you are making your claim without evidence then we can discard it without evidence.

Nearly all flat earthers agree the earth is not a globe.

Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #8 on: January 10, 2020, 11:40:40 AM »
Climate change isn't based on a computer model and it is a reality, even if it's difficult to predict/forecast. The climate is changing, this is something we can observe.
I should have wrote predictions are based on computer modeling.

Sorry...allow me to change that.
Correct. As is the weather forecast.
And they get it wrong too. The weather and climate and complex are chaotic (in the mathematical sense).
That doesn't mean that the science is completely wrong even if the models are imperfect.
The debate about human caused climate change is all but over in science

https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus-intermediate.htm
Don't you think it is curious they would disregard mainstream science in placing the blame on humanity?
I didn't say (conversion of) thermal energy wasn't involved at all.
A rocket does not create thrust by converting thermal energy.

Offline somerled

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Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2020, 11:46:16 AM »

Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #10 on: January 10, 2020, 10:33:04 PM »
Don't you think it is curious they would disregard mainstream science in placing the blame on humanity?
Who do you mean by "they"? Politicians? As in, why aren't they doing more to change things, despite the science?
I guess because it's difficult and expensive and unpopular. People don't want to give up their cars or meat.
And quite honestly if you've travelled to India or China (I pick those as they are two of the biggest polluters, partly because of their population) is is tempting to think we're screwed anyway and it doesn't matter what we do.
But climate change is a fact - I'm mid-40s and even in a timespan of 30+ years there's been a noticeable difference, yesterday it was almost T-shirt weather in London, that would have never happened in January in London when I was a kid.
And the scientists who know what they're talking about pretty much agree that we are causing it.
If you are making your claim without evidence then we can discard it without evidence.

Nearly all flat earthers agree the earth is not a globe.

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Offline Rama Set

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Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #11 on: January 11, 2020, 12:29:07 AM »
I remember reading a quote from the chinese equivalent of Minister of the Environment in the early 2000s, around the time when they were pushing to get a refridgerator in the home of everyone in china.  He was asked about why they weren't learning from the mistakes made by western nations when it came to pollution and he basically said that they were entitled to make the same mistakes that the west made.  With a mentality like that its not hard to understand why change is slow and often painful for humans.

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Offline Toddler Thork

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Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2020, 04:30:48 PM »
I remember reading a quote from the chinese equivalent of Minister of the Environment in the early 2000s, around the time when they were pushing to get a refridgerator in the home of everyone in china.  He was asked about why they weren't learning from the mistakes made by western nations when it came to pollution and he basically said that they were entitled to make the same mistakes that the west made.  With a mentality like that its not hard to understand why change is slow and often painful for humans.
I think he was probably saying "you knew and made those 'mistakes' anyway because of the economic advantages and we're not going to hobble ourselves either".

We could all stop using cars tomorrow ... but we're not going to are we?
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Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2020, 05:24:09 PM »
We didn’t know they were mistakes for a lot of that time to be fair. But now we do and we are continuing to do so because, yeah, having a car is convenient, sausages and burgers are yummy. We know these things are bad for both us and the planet but we don’t care, or not enough. I guess because right now in the UK climate change has mostly made it nicer (bar the odd flood here and there, but mostly there)
If you are making your claim without evidence then we can discard it without evidence.

Nearly all flat earthers agree the earth is not a globe.

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Offline Rama Set

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Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #14 on: January 11, 2020, 08:41:01 PM »
I remember reading a quote from the chinese equivalent of Minister of the Environment in the early 2000s, around the time when they were pushing to get a refridgerator in the home of everyone in china.  He was asked about why they weren't learning from the mistakes made by western nations when it came to pollution and he basically said that they were entitled to make the same mistakes that the west made.  With a mentality like that its not hard to understand why change is slow and often painful for humans.
I think he was probably saying "you knew and made those 'mistakes' anyway because of the economic advantages and we're not going to hobble ourselves either".

We could all stop using cars tomorrow ... but we're not going to are we?

At the time they were talking about using fridges that emit CFCs... so no, it wasn't what you were saying.

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Offline Toddler Thork

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Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #15 on: January 11, 2020, 09:45:57 PM »
I remember reading a quote from the chinese equivalent of Minister of the Environment in the early 2000s, around the time when they were pushing to get a refridgerator in the home of everyone in china.  He was asked about why they weren't learning from the mistakes made by western nations when it came to pollution and he basically said that they were entitled to make the same mistakes that the west made.  With a mentality like that its not hard to understand why change is slow and often painful for humans.
I think he was probably saying "you knew and made those 'mistakes' anyway because of the economic advantages and we're not going to hobble ourselves either".

We could all stop using cars tomorrow ... but we're not going to are we?

At the time they were talking about using fridges that emit CFCs... so no, it wasn't what you were saying.

Why do you hate the West? Go and live in China if you think they are a morally superior wonderful bunch of people.
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Offline Rama Set

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Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #16 on: January 12, 2020, 05:36:25 AM »
I was saying that China were being doofuses for feeling entitled not to learn from terrible mistakes.

Offline ChrisTP

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Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #17 on: January 12, 2020, 06:38:05 PM »

We could all stop using cars tomorrow ... but we're not going to are we?
I did. Or rather, I never started (because cycling is cheap and I live in various big cities). I’m no vegan either but I’d like to think since half my food consumption is huel that I’m pretty clean as far as population goes (not because I care, to be clear, huel is easy and healthy and I’m too lazy about making food). But it’s not enough because it’s not the every day people that are causing the most pollution and climate problems, It’s larger industrial companies as well as huge tankers and aircrafts.

I think most of the problem is that lives are short and no one really cares for the long term sustainability of the human race and care even less about the long term for other animals. It’s a sad truth.

But hey, the U.K. is becoming more and more like a holiday with this weather. :p
« Last Edit: January 13, 2020, 09:22:21 AM by ChrisTP »
Tom is wrong most of the time. Hardly big news, don't you think?

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Offline Toddler Thork

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Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #18 on: January 14, 2020, 12:23:36 PM »

We could all stop using cars tomorrow ... but we're not going to are we?
I did. Or rather, I never started (because cycling is cheap and I live in various big cities). I’m no vegan either but I’d like to think since half my food consumption is huel that I’m pretty clean as far as population goes (not because I care, to be clear, huel is easy and healthy and I’m too lazy about making food). But it’s not enough because it’s not the every day people that are causing the most pollution and climate problems, It’s larger industrial companies as well as huge tankers and aircrafts.

I think most of the problem is that lives are short and no one really cares for the long term sustainability of the human race and care even less about the long term for other animals. It’s a sad truth.

But hey, the U.K. is becoming more and more like a holiday with this weather. :p
I'm awarding you 637 virtue points after you thoughtfully signalled some of your virtues to us all. Well done on arriving everywhere smelling like an armpit in order to save planet earth. We are all very grateful. And might I also thank you for eating dust for dinner, leaving more food for the rest of us; very thoughtful. I'm glad I don't have to share a toilet with you. Nice pop at rich people ... I love envy and pointing at other people accusing them of wickedness, makes me feel all warm and superior inside. And then we finished off predicting the end of humanity because there's nothing like a little doom porn to help me chuck my load into some all natural recycled tissue paper.

Whoa hang on ... its heaven calling ... they're missing an angel! Go you! Good job champ!  :D
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Offline ChrisTP

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Re: How many times must you be wrong before you lose your card?
« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2020, 05:49:06 PM »
I just basically said I dont care about the planet but I'm lazy and cheap which happens to help the planet, but not anywhere near enough to matter. There's no virtue signaling going on there, just me saying individual carbon footprint means nothing and that we're all doomed because of large companies, of which we individuals have no real control over.

If my cheap and lazy life makes you feel bad about how your life is affecting the planet then I can't really help you with that. I'm not contributing to climate change in a similar way a homeless person isn't lol.
Tom is wrong most of the time. Hardly big news, don't you think?