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Messages - garygreen

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1
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: Today at 01:33:08 AM »
hello yes i am an STUIPD eagles fan ha ha

LOL! i got you good.

2
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Flat Earth AI Poems by ChatGPT
« on: January 24, 2023, 01:10:34 AM »
write an epic poem in the Homeric tradition called "Tom Bishop Tom Bishop What Is He Your Leader?"

Tom Bishop, Tom Bishop, what is he, your leader?
A man of strength and courage, feared by all creatures.
With a heart of gold and a will of steel,
He stands tall, a hero among men.

He roamed the land, seeking adventure and fame,
Fighting monsters and beasts, putting them to shame.
His sword, a mighty weapon, forged in the fire,
Could cut through armor as if it were mere wire.

He sailed the seas, facing storms and high waves,
Conquering all who dared to stand in his way.
His ship, a sleek vessel, built for speed and grace,
Was the envy of all who saw it in its race.

He climbed the peaks, scaling cliffs and high walls,
Defying death and fate, he stood tall and never falls.
His shield, a shining emblem, bore the mark of the brave,
And all who saw it knew that he was not to be depraved.

Tom Bishop, Tom Bishop, what is he, your leader?
A man of strength and courage, feared by all creatures.
With a heart of gold and a will of steel,
He stands tall, a hero among men.

But his deeds have not gone unnoticed,
For the gods above have taken notice,
They have chosen him to lead the mortals,
And guide them to glory and victory,

Tom Bishop, Tom Bishop, what is he, your leader?
A god among men, and a god among gods,
With his wisdom and his strength,
He will lead his people to greatness.

Tom Bishop, Tom Bishop, what is he, your leader?
A man of strength and courage, feared by all creatures.
With a heart of gold and a will of steel,
He stands tall, a hero among men.

So let us sing his praises,
And tell the tales of his deeds,
For Tom Bishop, our leader,
Will forever be remembered.

3
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: January 15, 2023, 03:29:49 AM »

4
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: January 09, 2023, 11:03:13 PM »
the final wpa/epa plot for the 2022 nfl regular season.


5
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Just Watched
« on: January 06, 2023, 03:49:08 AM »
the wolf of wall street

tbh i don't get why this movie was so highly acclaimed. the first two hours were just the same scene over and over again. jordan narrates himself doing coke and banging hookers. that's really all that happens. things pick up a little bit in the final act, but then the movie just sort of ends.

that said — i actually found it to be pretty entertaining. the cast is great. the script prefers to show and not tell. and it's absolutely hilarious at times. i think each individual scene is fantastic. it's just that there are way too many of them, and they're all the same.


6
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Died Suddenly
« on: January 05, 2023, 01:56:55 AM »
That's not the right link though. The data is from https://goodsciencing.com/covid/athletes-suffer-cardiac-arrest-die-after-covid-shot/

It shows that over 1000 athletes have died since the introduction of the vaccine, not 16.

if you have to lie to make your point, then it isn't a good one.

for one thing, you don't know anything about the medical histories of the deceased people in your lying source. you just assert that they must have died due to being vaccinated. that's extremely dishonest.

for another, here are some of the cases your dishonest source calls "athletes."

  • Nik Mohd Faiz Nik Mohd Azmi (37), amateur runner and university lecturer
  • Oscar (14), Cyclist suffered a cardiac arrest while riding his mountain bike.
  • Princess Bajrakitiyabha (44), of Thailand suddenly collapsed while jogging with her dogs.
  • Unnamed male (49) table tennis player suddenly collapsed during a competition.
  • Gary Tiller (62), Curling player who represented Newfoundland province.
  • Anuj (16), playing cricket with his friends in Uttar Pradesh, India
  • Laurent Fellon (61 motherfucking years old), French Moto3 (motorcycling) race winner, double Moto2 world champion and, from 2017, a MotoGP frontrunner. He had been suffering from cancer for a few months and has now died.
  • Franck Anne (47), trotter driver and owner, breeder trainer of trotters in France.

apparently an athlete is "anyone who does anything." lol these lying idiots clearly just did a news search for anyone who had a cardiovascular issue and then declared that they got sick because of the vaccine because they are too young, even though they count people literally in their 60s. and then they get even more dishonest by comparing their results to an IOC study that confines itself to actual athletes under 35. and oh by the way, it concludes that "SCD occurs more frequently in young athletes, even those under the age of 18 years, than expected and is predominantly caused by pre-existing congenital cardiac abnormalities."

you are a liar. your source is a liar. you literally cannot even have this discussion without lying over and over and over again. just stop.

7
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: December 10, 2022, 07:26:12 PM »
"Federal official", of course, means a legitimate one. Fraud has occurred in the past and the official was not removed via impeachment. Here is an example of a state senator removed directly by a judge after a heinous Democrat vote fraud scheme:

https://web.archive.org/web/20201114182126/https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1994-02-20-1994051024-story.html

    PHILADELPHIA -- Saying Philadelphia's election system had collapsed under "a massive scheme" by a Democratic candidate to steal a state Senate election in November, a federal judge took the rare step of invalidating the election and ordered the seat filled by the Republican candidate.

    In making such a sweeping move, Judge Clarence C. Newcomer of U.S. District Court in Philadelphia did for the Republicans what the election had not: enabled them to regain control of the state Senate, which they lost two years ago.

    Judge Newcomer ruled Friday that the Democratic candidate, William G. Stinson, had stolen the election from Bruce S. Marks in North Philadelphia's 2nd Senatorial District through an elaborate fraud in which hundreds of residents were encouraged to vote by absentee ballot even though they had no legal reason -- such as a physical disability or a scheduled trip outside the city -- to do so.

you started this by agreeing with trump's assertion that part or all of the constitution should be suspended:

Trump is correct[...]Large parts of the Constitution can be discarded because they are not applicable to an illegitimately elected President.

how does the stinson case demonstrate that any part of the constitution can be — or should be — discarded in instances of election fraud? was the pennsylvania state constitution suspended in any fashion?

your article actually seems to imply that there is, in fact, a constitutional remedy that is available and has been used before. maybe trump should try taking some of his iron clad evidence to the courts? really odd that he hasn't already. what's he waiting for?

8
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: December 06, 2022, 09:46:42 PM »
the state of the nfl going into week 13:




9
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: December 06, 2022, 05:32:17 PM »
The impeachment process is a process granted to legitimate Presidents, not illegitimate ones. An illegitimate President would not be granted that process. The process of impeaching the President assumes by default that it is a legitimate President.

my dude if you wanna have this discussion, please read more about how impeachment works. it is not a process that is "granted" to presidents at all. as honk points out, there is a constitutional remedy for fraudulent presidental elections — the house can bring charges against the president, and the senate can try him or her on those charges. the end.

10
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Terrible Political Memes
« on: November 25, 2022, 05:39:14 PM »

11
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: November 16, 2022, 11:19:19 PM »
yeah i think i might be able to whip something like that up. i could maybe make a gif that goes from week 1 to current that shows all the teams moving around wpa/epa space.

12
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: November 15, 2022, 05:48:47 PM »
the state of the nfl going into week 11




13
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: November 14, 2022, 12:12:18 AM »
lmao fuck the bills

14
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: November 13, 2022, 12:21:37 AM »
here's my first shot at a prediction model. it's just a vanilla logistic regression trained on three features for every nfl game since 2002: pythagorean expectation for each team, and a binary variable for home/away. it performed well on held-out validation data, and the fact that it seems to track the vegas odds so closely is very encouraging.

the left panel shows you my model's prediction vs the chance to win implied by the moneyline odds. the right panel shows you the difference between the predicted odds and the implied odds — this is the per-unit expected value of a bet for each team. positive numbers are good. you can multiply a team's per-unit EV by the size of a bet to get the average return on that bet (e.g., 0.05 * $100 = $5, so you should expect an average return of $5 for that bet).


15
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: November 06, 2022, 02:57:19 PM »
the state of the nfl going into today's games. go chefs.


16
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: October 29, 2022, 04:43:26 PM »
i changed some of the aesthetics on these plots to make them easier to read. i also made a new plot that is pretty interesting imo. this is average team wpa vs average team epa across all non-special-teams plays this season.

one way to read this plot is to look at vertical slices of ~constant epa per play. for example, the raiders and the giants both have the same average epa per play, but the giants have positive wpa per play while the raiders have negative wpa per play. in other words, both the raiders and the giants are equally effective at playing football, but the giants are performing better in situations that have a greater impact on the outcome of the game. and that is nicely reflected in their relative win percentages.

i'll leave it up to the reader to decide if that disparity is the result of things like poor situational coaching, team chemistry, "clutch" factor, momentum, or simply random variation.


17
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: October 26, 2022, 12:34:46 AM »
i made a goof. i incorrectly filtered out some plays on my last plot that skewed the results. here is a better set. for reference, wpa is contextual and considers every play, e.g. scoring a touchdown when you're tied increases your odds of winning more than scoring when you're down by 69. epa, however, does not care about context, e.g. scoring a touchdown always adds the same expected value. to reduce systematic error due to game situations, epa only considers plays where the score is close (within 2 scores) and time is not a factor (more than 2 minutes remaining).

in other words, epa is "how good are you at moving/stopping the handegg in typical situations," and wpa is "how good are you at improving your odds of winning handegg games."

why bother with two metrics? well, let's say patrick mahomes throws an interception to end a game against the bills (yikes!). wpa is sensitive to the fact that this interception ended the game, so it penalizes this pic more than one thrown in, say, the first quarter of the game. but is mahomes (or any quarterback) really more likely to throw a pic in the 1st quarter than the 4th? if you think so, then wpa is your stat. if, however, you think player performance does not drastically change with respect to situation, then you wanna look to epa.


18
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: October 25, 2022, 05:44:16 PM »
here's the state of the nfl today. fyi, negative numbers are good for defense, so the upper right quadrant is the good quadrant, and the lower left is the bad one. the jets are probably frauds. philly's defense has to come back down to earth sometime, but their offense may be legit. the giants may be getting mildly lucky.



The primary peak sitting at ~ -0.75 EPA seemed a bit weird that it was so consistent

i was puzzled by that, too, but i guess when you think about all the incompletions and run/pass plays that only go for a few yards or less, probably most nfl plays have a slightly negative EPA. i think the other thing that's happening is that it's difficult to judge the relative heights of the primary peaks with respect to each team. i'd expect buffalo and kc to have smaller peaks there than, say denver and carolina.


19
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: October 21, 2022, 04:47:59 PM »
thanks fam

i got the data from some shit called the nflverse, but i made the plot myself. lol most of my time has been spent tweaking the colors. it needs a caption for sure.

i'm most surprised that nfl passing across the board is dominated by low epa plays. the distributions in general are a lot more similar than i would have expected. like i think if you just showed me one of the distributions at random, i wouldn't have any idea if it was associated with a good offense or a bad one. i'm looking into the data more carefully to see if i'm making an error in the way i group them. lol that is entirely possible.

20
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: October 20, 2022, 11:29:22 PM »
i found a treasure trove of high-quality nfl data. i made a plot. it's not especially informative, but it looks neat imo. go chefs.


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