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Messages - garygreen

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Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Coronavirus Vaccine and You
« on: September 17, 2021, 01:58:02 PM »
Quote from: Tom Bishop
okay libs, so you're saying AIDS is a deadly disease, yet all these so-called AIDS deaths list pneumonia as the primary cause of death?????????? wow doctors must all be liars and HIV is harmless.

how do you not understand how primary/secondary causes of death work

Arts & Entertainment / Re: FES Book Club
« on: September 17, 2021, 02:43:38 AM »
i forgot to post when i finished the honourable schoolboy, part 2 of le carré's smiley v. karly trilogy. i enjoyed this one much more than tinker tailor. i especially liked the westerby plot and the ensuing deep dive into the life of a field operator. plus all the southeast asia shit.

my only beef with the book in general was that it was at least twice as long as it should have been. i dunno who edited it, but they did a shit job in that regard imo.

also tiu is a spider bastard.

john le carre died. damn. rip in peaces.

Damn. He got me in to reading for fun... 13 year old me was all about Le Carré, Follet, Higgins

if you have any recommendations on good spyshit, holler at ya boy

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Coronavirus Vaccine and You
« on: September 15, 2021, 08:46:51 PM »
guys just give it up. tom has already proven that everyone in 2020 died of a motorcycle accident. he found a website that says so.

checkmate, atheists.

Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: September 13, 2021, 12:03:34 AM »
go chefs

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: September 11, 2021, 02:05:49 PM »
lmao somebody tell me more about how biden is disrespectful because he looked at his watch once

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: President Joe Biden
« on: September 02, 2021, 08:01:13 PM »
i didn't realize that this thread was reserved exclusively for saying that biden is bad, but okay.

biden is a do-nothing, waste-of-time president for a do-nothing, waste-of-time party that has nothing but rhetoric to offer anyone. who cares many times he checks his watch.

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: President Joe Biden
« on: September 02, 2021, 02:28:21 PM »
the gop: putting a piece of cloth in front of my face is an unconstitutional violation of my inalienable human right to FREEDOM!!! how DARE you!!!

also the gop: you are required to allow another human being to live inside you no matter what.

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: August 26, 2021, 01:03:46 PM »

or, in other words, "this lawsuit is so without merit that you should be disbarred for bringing it in the first place."

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: The Taliban Won
« on: August 25, 2021, 06:22:49 PM »
No other way?

hey i'm just going with what turnip said. he was quite clear that this was his plan and his timetable. biden tried to stop all this from happening, but he couldn't.

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: The Taliban Won
« on: August 25, 2021, 02:12:28 PM »
on a side note, i'm really enjoying how i spent literally 20 years hearing nothing but shrieking from conservatives like "muslims are so awful and don't respect human rights and nancy pelosi wants sharia law in america!!!!!!!1111", and now you dummies can't stop talking about how awesome the taliban is and omg sharia law is great because women are sluts who need to be put in their places.

i wish y'all would pick one side of literally any issue and stick to it for more than a day.

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: The Taliban Won
« on: August 25, 2021, 01:53:22 PM »
this couldn't have turned out any other way because, as turnip points out, the entire thing was his idea. this was his plan. biden wanted to stop the process, but he had no choice because turnip had already set everything in motion and it could not be stopped.

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: August 15, 2021, 08:30:52 PM »
tl;dr: i repeated frank's work from scratch today, and it's terrible. perhaps he was once a talented chemist, but he's clearly an awful statistician. his claim that he can predict election turnout is utterly bogus — he simply fits a line to 2020 county level voter turnout data within a state, then says "wow this line predicts 2020 county level voter turnout in this state!" well, no shit.

all the voter data i used can be found here.

the first point frank makes is to show a plot like this and talk about how it's impossible for the registered voters curve to so closely match all the bumps and wiggles of the turnout curve. he also shows a plot of population vs age census data and shows that the same bumps and wiggles are present. he never says why it should be impossible, he just shows and says what are the odds???

pretty good odds, actually. just think about it — are 55-year-olds significantly more or less likely to vote than 56-year-olds? of course not. the voter participation rate doesn't swing wildly over small age differences. so, if there are more 56-year-olds than 55-year-olds, and if the voter participation rate is the same between both ages, then we should expect to see more total ballots from 56-year-olds.

to give some intuition for this, let's imagine that voter participation doesn't vary with age at all; that is, everyone is equally likely to vote regardless of age. here's what frank's plot for hamilton county, ohio, would look like if the voter participation rate were 80%.

in other words, frank's plot isn't showing anything impossible. he's simply demonstrating that the null hypothesis — that voter participation doesn't vary on short timescales — is consistent with his data. 55-year-olds are just as likely to vote as 56-year-olds. nothing surprising there.

next, frank talks about his so-called "key" to predicting voter turnout in a state. he shows a plot like the first figure and says that every county in a state has the same proportion of ballots received vs registered voters. in other words, for every county, the red line has the same proportional difference to the black line. here's an example for hamilton county:

frank says the curve on the right is identical for all ohio counties, but that's not correct. here's the same plot for hamilton and franklin counties. they're similar, but not identical.

he then makes these proportional difference curves for every county in ohio. i was too lazy to download every county voter roll, but here are the curves for a random-ish sample of ohio counties large and small:

here's where shit really goes awry. he fits a polynomial curve to these data (fyi there is absolutely nothing special about a sixth order polynomial), but he doesn't specify how. not a huge deal, i assume he just minimizes mse or rms or some other loss function and fits a curve. the way i did it was much simpler: find the average voter participation per age. lol that is literally all he's actually done. see for yourself:

this is exactly the "6th order polynomial" he shows at around 11:43 of the lindell video. it's just the average voter participation across all age groups. i added the 2-sigma standard error in blue shading to mine, but otherwise they're the same curve.

he concludes by basically saying that this is incredible because you can use this line to predict 2020 voter turnout for any county in ohio — for each age you simply multiply the number of registered voters by the average turnout rate for that age...lmao no fucking shit, dude. you fit a curve to a bunch of data, and now you're acting shocked that the curve fits your data lolololololol. that's not prediction. that's just working forward to an average, then working backward to the original number, all with the same data.

the best part is that in the lindell video he says explicitly that each state has its own curve. the same curve doesn't work for all states. lol so it has absolutely no predictive power whatsoever.

end note: i still am not sure how this information would be useful to anyone who wants to rig the election with fake ballots. the data he and i are using includes the vote tallies. so if the extra votes don't show up in the tallies, then what difference does it make about all these age differences? none of this makes sense. anyone who falls for it is simply failing to think critically.

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: August 09, 2021, 06:14:11 PM »
lmao kevin seefried is a different person, and he was arrested and indicted.

i guess fanone must've gotten those tattoos on his neck after his work as an fbi plant on jan 6.

very obviously a different person, and it took me like 2 minutes to verify that.

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trans athletes
« on: July 16, 2021, 10:55:02 PM »
The issues are in your head. Not your body.

your head is part of your body, you nut.

either way, the point is that you have been arguing that being trans is a psychological issue with respect to one's genetics. that's why you use words like "delusional" — you're saying it's a delusion about one's genetics. any way you slice it, your argument is "some medical treatments are bad because they defy your genetic code."

I have no idea what you are talking about

really? it's not that complicated, but i can try to dumb it down for you.

i'm trying to figure out why you think it's okay to use medicine to fix things about ourselves in some cases — even when those things are caused by our genetic code — but not okay in other cases.

alice wants to have a double-mastectomy to make her look more like a man, even though her genetic code says she is a woman.
bob wants to have laisik eye surgery to make his vision better, even though his genetic code says he is nearsighted.

i'm still waiting for someone to explain an actual qualitative difference between these two scenarios without simply bleating "but..but..alice's genetic code!"

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trans athletes
« on: July 15, 2021, 09:34:19 PM »
Requiring glasses is a physiological problem. Therefore spectacles will help.

awesome, sounds like we're in complete agreement that treating physiological problems is helpful.

However, if you identified as short-sighted and even though you aren't and absolutely insisted that you required glasses, those glasses wouldn't help you. In fact ... they'd make your vision worse.

i'm not talking about anyone's identity. i'm talking simply about a person having a physiological problem and then treating it. your argument was that that's bad because you can't go against your dna or whatever — your dna says you are a boy, so it's bad to make yourself look like a girl, change your hormones, etc.

i'm just trying to figure out why it super duper matters what my dna says in one case but not others. like, i can fry my fucking eyeballs with lasers and you're cool with that, even though my dna says i am nearsighted. but i can't use lasers to make myself look different because that goes against my dna and is suddenly bad for some reason?

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trans athletes
« on: July 15, 2021, 07:30:05 PM »
wearing spectacles doesn't resolve the underlying disorder, therefore wearing glasses is bad you should just go see a therapist about getting over your vision issues

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trans athletes
« on: July 02, 2021, 03:37:32 PM »
if you're a genetic essentialist, i don't see how it's deniable. how is "your genes say you are a boy so you have to be a boy" qualitatively different than "your genes say you are nearsighted so you have to be nearsighted."

our genes encode many things that humans choose to resist/alter/deny/compensate for/whatever. you're welcome to draw an arbitrary line in the sand about which encodings you think are acceptable to resist, i guess. have at it.

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trans athletes
« on: July 02, 2021, 02:52:18 PM »
Hot takes have landed.

i can't wait until all the "omg but you have to do what your genes say!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111111222222223333333" people find out about eyeglasses.

Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Coronavirus Vaccine and You
« on: June 21, 2021, 06:43:51 PM »
total suppression

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