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Offline Rama Set

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Re: Trump
« Reply #7060 on: November 20, 2020, 10:36:09 PM »
gg c/o gg

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Trump
« Reply #7061 on: November 20, 2020, 10:50:31 PM »
They didn't recount at all the votes and compare them with the computer's total tally. They only picked out a small percentage of paper ballots that they had and counted them, extrapolating that everything else would be the same. They just selected from the pile of ballots that they had, ignoring that some may have been added or removed to the total tally. Quite flawed.

patently false.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/georgia-election-recount-audit-pace-deadline/
"The hand recount of nearly 5 million votes stems from an audit required by a new state law and wasn't in response to any suspected problems with the state's results or an official recount request. The law requires the audit to be done before the counties' certified results can be certified by the state.

Sterling said counties are on a "good pace" for completing the audit in its scheduled time and stressed that elections officials who have become a target of Mr. Trump's ire on Twitter are "diligently following the law." More than 4.9 million ballots have been hand audited so far, with "tens of thousands" left, he said."

Wrong. It was a "risk-limiting" audit.

Why Georgia’s Unscientific Recount ‘Horrified’ Experts - https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/georgia-recount/

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The series of events leading to the “audit” began with a flurry of attacks from within the GOP leveled at Raffensperger, launched not even a week after Election Day, urging everything from his resignation to a complete recount done by hand of all ballots from the Nov. 3 election.

In a surprise move, Raffensperger announced on Nov. 11 that he would order the count. He used what Gregory Miller, chief operating officer of OSET Institute, a nonprofit organization that researches and develops election technology, called “pretzel logic.” The state was obligated by law to perform a “risk-limiting audit”—a means of determining accuracy by counting a random sample chosen according to mathematical formulas. The technique has been tried in a small but growing number of states in recent years, and the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine concluded in a 2018 report that all states “should mandate risk-limiting audits.” But Raffensperger decided to forego choosing a sample of ballots, insisting instead that counting all of the nearly five million ballots by hand, in less than a week, would be necessary to fulfill the obligation.

Georgia came to the idea of conducting risk-limiting audits last year, after federal judge Nina Totenberg ordered the state to overhaul its entire elections system due to outdated technology plagued by computing vulnerabilities. The state is one of only a handful that uses the same system statewide, whereas most states use a patchwork of voting methods; in addition, the voting machines then in use did not print out paper ballots.

But as state officials debated how to comply with the judge’s order, experts urged the state to abandon digital voting altogether, to adopt voting by hand-marked paper ballots, and to follow up elections with risk-limiting audits.

The latter received the imprimatur of the National Academies for a reason. For decades, many states have performed audits by hand-counting ballots in a fixed percentage of precincts. But a fixed percentage “may not provide adequate assurance with regard to the outcome of a close election,” according to the 2018 report. Risk-limiting audits, on the other hand, examine “randomly selected paper ballots until sufficient statistical assurance is obtained,” as the report’s authors wrote. The so-called risk limit refers to the largest possible chance that the audit will not correct an inaccurate result. For example, a 10 percent risk limit means an audit has a 90 percent chance of identifying the correct result of an election. The formulas underpinning the audit determine how many ballots will need to counted to reach that limit.

In the end, Georgia lawmakers decided to ignore most expert advice, and spent $107 million on a new computerized voting system, including voting machines that print out paper ballots—the object of this week’s count. They did, however, agree to carry out a version of risk-limiting audits, with the guidance of a nonprofit organization called Voting Works.

Raffensperger’s surprise announcement claimed that the race was so close that mathematical formulas suggested that up to 1.5 million ballots would need to be randomly pulled, and that counting all 5 million by hand would be easier. This appeared to satisfy GOP critics, while also complying with state law regarding risk-limiting audits. One problem: state law also doesn’t allow for changing the election outcome based on the audit results.

The secretary of state called it “an audit, recount and recanvass, all at once.” The issue, Miller noted in a widely-read essay, was that each of these concepts has a different definition, and different legal and technical implications. (A recount, for example, is conducted by scanners, not by hand.)

Philip B. Stark, the U.C. Berkeley statistics professor widely recognized as the creator of risk-limiting audits, called the state’s decision a “FrankenCount” in an email. “Part of me is delighted that the idea has caught on,” he added in a call. “Part of me is horrified—they’re misrepresenting what it can do.”

Stark told me that a risk-limiting audit, to be effective, must have “trustworthy ballots.” This means, among other things, that each county would have canvassed its results, and ensured that the number of ballots tallied before uploading results to the state matched the number of voters who turned up at the polls. This would have avoided the “discovery” of thousands of ballots in several counties during the hand count that had not been included in statewide results. In the current climate, this has added fuel to allegations of wrongdoing—even though it didn’t change the election’s outcome. After all was said and done, Biden was still the winner, by 12,284 votes—less than 500 votes different from the tally compiled by machine.

Stark also questioned Raffensperger’s claim regarding the necessary sample size, which Voting Works had estimated at 1.5 million. Stark said a risk-limiting audit “could have been done with 2,500 ballots, according to my methods and my calculations.”

On-the-ground observers of the count included Harri Hursti, an election cybersecurity expert who has studied elections in five countries, including the US. “This whole thing was originally called a risk-limiting audit, then a hand recount, then an audit—I don’t know what it is; I don’t think anyone else knows,” he said.

Hursti noted that he had looked at the software being used to manage the hand count, an easy thing to do, given that Voting Works uses open-source code. He had seen more than a dozen changes to the code since the count began—a security concern, he said, since no entity had approved the original software or the changes.

Hursti also noted that staffers and volunteers in different counties—and sometimes in the same county—were following different procedures for counting the ballots. “Hand recounts only work when people are trained in and apply consistent methodologies,” said Richard DeMillo, computer science professor and interim chairman of the School of Cybersecurity and Privacy at Georgia Tech. “You could look at live feeds [of the hand count] and see that this is not the case.”

As Miller wrote in his essay, “audits must be sufficiently well-organized and rigorous that they do not potentially risk becoming yet another ‘political football’ for partisans to argue over; the whole point of a post-election audit is to produce clear evidence that reduces uncertainty—not to give politicians a fresh set of new ‘irregularities’ to argue about.”

By Tuesday, the state appeared to have done a legal analysis of its effort; Gabriel Sterling, the state’s voting system manager, announced that the hand count would not in any way change the election’s results, for legal reasons. “What was the exercise about?” asked Marilyn Marks in response. Marks is executive director of the Coalition for Good Governance, an organization whose ongoing lawsuit against the state led to Judge Totenberg’s 2019 order. “Why take a week to do this, at a high cost and exposing so many workers to Covid?” Calls and emails requesting comment to the Secretary of State, Gabriel Sterling, and Voting Works were not returned.

On Thursday evening, with the hand count done, a federal judge denied a petition by attorney L. Lin Wood for a Temporary Restraining Order on the state certifying its election results, which took place Friday. After certification, President Trump can legally ask for a recount, which again means tallying up all votes by scanner.

In the end, the path Georgia has taken is a loss for the concept of a genuine risk-limiting audit, said Miller. “This may not matter—except to those who want to preserve risk-limiting audits as an important means of trusting the vote,” he said. “On Jan. 5, we will undoubtedly see incredibly close races—with attendant calls for recounts … Will they apply regulations to ensure verification, accuracy and ideally, transparent elections—or will it fuel the same sort of distractions they’re seeing now?”
« Last Edit: November 20, 2020, 10:56:43 PM by Tom Bishop »
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Offline Rama Set

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Re: Trump
« Reply #7062 on: November 20, 2020, 10:57:56 PM »
No. They counted every ballot by hand. Risk-limiting audits normally use the procedure of testing a smaller number of ballots, but in this case a complete hand count was done instead.

https://apnews.com/article/ap-explains-georgia-audit-or-recount-9adf1d0ed50f8788572b4f7e0f04027e

“ Georgia election officials say they will be reviewing every ballot to start. They say it will be easier for county officials to manage because the large number of ballots and the close margin are likely to result in a tally of every ballot anyway.”

Re: Trump
« Reply #7063 on: November 20, 2020, 10:59:13 PM »
Tom. Did you even read the article you posted or did you just look for keywords again and bolded the parts which you think make your case? ???
"On a very clear and chilly day it is possible to see Lighthouse Beach from Lovers Point and vice versa...Upon looking into the telescope I can see children running in and out of the water, splashing and playing. I can see people sun bathing at the shore
- An excerpt from the account of the Bishop Experiment. My emphasis

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Offline Rama Set

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Re: Trump
« Reply #7064 on: November 20, 2020, 11:01:50 PM »
Tom. Did you even read the article you posted or did you just look for keywords again and bolded the parts which you think make your case? ???

This is standard Bom Tishop. Rushing to own the libs but self-owning in the process.

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Trump
« Reply #7065 on: November 20, 2020, 11:06:34 PM »
Yep. I read it.

"The state was obligated by law to perform a 'risk-limiting audit'—a means of determining accuracy by counting a random sample chosen according to mathematical formulas."

Read that? OBLIGATED BY LAW. They can't just choose to do something else. They had to do it.

They agreed to do it:

"They did, however, agree to carry out a version of risk-limiting audits, with the guidance of a nonprofit organization called Voting Works."

Some confusion on exactly what they did:

“This whole thing was originally called a risk-limiting audit, then a hand recount, then an audit—I don’t know what it is; I don’t think anyone else knows”

Even if they did a different kind of recount, it wouldn't affect the election's results for legal reasons. The law says it has to be a risk-limiting audit:

"By Tuesday, the state appeared to have done a legal analysis of its effort; Gabriel Sterling, the state’s voting system manager, announced that the hand count would not in any way change the election’s results, for legal reasons."

« Last Edit: November 20, 2020, 11:18:04 PM by Tom Bishop »
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Online Lord Dave

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Re: Trump
« Reply #7066 on: November 20, 2020, 11:07:57 PM »
Quote
Its not if the investments keep failing.

Real estate is one of the safest investments. Property tends to always retain the bulk of its value, even if the market is low.
Yes but a plot of land is worthless if you do nothing with it.
So you build a building.  But if you can't upkeep that building or its existence is not profitable (like a hotel or casino) then its a net loss regardless of its assessed value.

Re: Trump
« Reply #7067 on: November 20, 2020, 11:20:35 PM »
Read that? OBLIGATED BY LAW.

capital letters don't actually make your argument better.

here is georgia's recount law — https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2019/title-21/chapter-2/article-12/section-21-2-495/

please show me where it mentions risk-whatever audits.

oh and here's the word straight from raffensperger: https://sos.ga.gov/index.php/elections/historic_first_statewide_audit_of_paper_ballots_upholds_result_of_presidential_race

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Today, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced the results of the Risk Limiting Audit of Georgia’s presidential contest, which upheld and reaffirmed the original outcome produced by the machine tally of votes cast. Due to the tight margin of the race and the principles of risk-limiting audits, this audit was a full manual tally of all votes cast. The audit confirmed that the original machine count accurately portrayed the winner of the election. The results of the audit can be viewed HERE , HERE , and HERE .

« Last Edit: November 20, 2020, 11:26:45 PM by garygreen »
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Offline Roundy

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Re: Trump
« Reply #7068 on: November 20, 2020, 11:26:29 PM »
Tom. Did you even read the article you posted or did you just look for keywords again and bolded the parts which you think make your case? ???

This is standard Bom Tishop. Rushing to own the libs but self-owning in the process.

It's these little moments that kind of make arguing with him worth it from time to time.
Go kicking and screaming, lol, it all means the same on January 21st.

Before this is over I'm betting you eat those landslide words :)

Another gullible, delusional "Independent" ::)

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Offline Rama Set

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Re: Trump
« Reply #7069 on: November 20, 2020, 11:27:37 PM »
Tom is clearly just ignoring the part where it explicitly says the did a hand count of every ballot in their risk-limiting audit. Not sure why, it only makes him look delusional or stupid.

Tom. Did you even read the article you posted or did you just look for keywords again and bolded the parts which you think make your case? ???

This is standard Bom Tishop. Rushing to own the libs but self-owning in the process.

It's these little moments that kind of make arguing with him worth it this entire election cycle.

Fix’d

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Trump
« Reply #7070 on: November 21, 2020, 12:33:31 AM »
Read that? OBLIGATED BY LAW.

capital letters don't actually make your argument better.

here is georgia's recount law — https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2019/title-21/chapter-2/article-12/section-21-2-495/

please show me where it mentions risk-whatever audits.

oh and here's the word straight from raffensperger: https://sos.ga.gov/index.php/elections/historic_first_statewide_audit_of_paper_ballots_upholds_result_of_presidential_race

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Today, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced the results of the Risk Limiting Audit of Georgia’s presidential contest, which upheld and reaffirmed the original outcome produced by the machine tally of votes cast. Due to the tight margin of the race and the principles of risk-limiting audits, this audit was a full manual tally of all votes cast. The audit confirmed that the original machine count accurately portrayed the winner of the election. The results of the audit can be viewed HERE , HERE , and HERE .

It says in a link on that page you linked that they were doing narrow audits:

https://sos.ga.gov/admin/uploads/RLA_Public_Notice_11092020.pdf



It appears that they are claiming to have done the risk limiting audit, as well as a hand count, which they added on to be thorough.

The people counting in this "we hand counted" venture don't seem to have pencils, computers, or any type of recording device and must memorizing the counts as they go in their heads:

Video: https://twitter.com/TalkMullins/status/1328171368563822594

« Last Edit: November 21, 2020, 12:45:40 AM by Tom Bishop »
"The biggest problem in astronomy is that when we look at something in the sky, we don’t know how far away it is" — Pauline Barmby, Ph.D., Professor of Astronomy

Re: Trump
« Reply #7071 on: November 21, 2020, 12:40:26 AM »
So now that tour primary narrative has been shut down, were just making up a new one about memorizing counted ballot numbers in lieu of recording things?

Just want to make sure I'm following
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Offline Rama Set

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Re: Trump
« Reply #7072 on: November 21, 2020, 12:41:20 AM »
Surely if the entire process can’t be captured in a single tweet it must be flawed.

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Offline Clyde Frog

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Re: Trump
« Reply #7073 on: November 21, 2020, 12:48:38 AM »
If the margin of victory is very narrow and/or errors are found, you need to take a larger sample of votes to ensure your risk-limiting audit results in an accurate determination. That sample can very well be a full recount of every single vote. Given how close GA was, I'm not surprised that they did a risk-limiting audit and in doing so, recounted 100% of the votes.

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Re: Trump
« Reply #7074 on: November 21, 2020, 12:49:31 AM »
The people counting in this "we hand counted" venture don't seem to have pencils, computers, or any type of recording device and must memorizing the counts as they go in their heads:

Video: https://twitter.com/TalkMullins/status/1328171368563822594



A random person on Twitter posting a random thirty-second clip of a bunch of people sitting at tables and looking at papers is not a reliable record of the auditing process. We don't know what happened thirty seconds before this clip began; we don't know what happened thirty seconds after it ended.
ur retartet but u donut even no it and i walnut tell u y

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Trump
« Reply #7075 on: November 21, 2020, 01:00:21 AM »
A lot of chicanery going on in Georgia. Mixed, probably purposely misleading, information about a "risk-limiting audit" and a "full hand count". The recount looks questionable in the video because it probably was.

Georgia Elections Officials Instructed by State to Report Original Vote Totals and NOT Recount Totals - https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/report-georgia-elections-officials-instructed-state-report-original-vote-totals-not-recount-totals/

Attorney Linn Wood:

https://twitter.com/LLinWood/status/1328921766799011841



https://twitter.com/jennybethm/status/1328888692547538945

« Last Edit: November 21, 2020, 01:54:02 AM by Tom Bishop »
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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Trump
« Reply #7076 on: November 21, 2020, 01:23:29 AM »
Oh no, you're doing it wrong. You're not supposed to find Dominion Voting Machine Votes for Trump. You're fired!

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger Wants Elections Director to Step Down After Floyd County “Finds” 2600 Uncounted Ballots - https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/georgia-secretary-state-brad-raffensperger-wants-elections-director-step-floyd-county-finds-2600-uncounted-ballots/

Quote
As reported by TGP’s Kristinn Taylor, the statewide recount of votes on the presidential election over the weekend revealed that in Floyd County, Georgia over 2,600 votes were not counted due to a server error, allegedly by a Dominion tabulating machine.

The statewide recount is still ongoing in several counties, the deadline for completion is 11:59 p.m. Wednesday.

The found votes reportedly favor President Trump almost two-to-one, cutting Joe Biden’s approximate 14,000 vote lead by about 800 votes.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger on Monday evening immediately called for the elections director to step down.

Journalist Claire Simms:

https://twitter.com/Claire_FOX5/status/1328462537311055875



Another Elections Official fired for not following protocol:

DeKalb County, Georgia Elections Manager Fired After Series of Errors in Audit of Ballots - https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/dekalb-county-georgia-elections-manager-fired-series-errors-audit-ballots/
« Last Edit: November 21, 2020, 01:43:26 AM by Tom Bishop »
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Offline Rama Set

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Re: Trump
« Reply #7077 on: November 21, 2020, 01:55:50 AM »
Old news. GA goes for Biden.

Re: Trump
« Reply #7078 on: November 21, 2020, 02:01:48 AM »
Old news. GA goes for Biden.

GA went for Biden
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Re: Trump
« Reply #7079 on: November 21, 2020, 02:15:08 AM »
The people counting in this "we hand counted" venture don't seem to have pencils, computers, or any type of recording device and must memorizing the counts as they go in their heads:

no, they just aren't stupid enough to tally each individual ballot one-at-a-time.

you just separate all the ballots into bins for each candidate, then count the bins. lol i don't know why you would think anyone needs to have a computer with them to separate ballots into bins. you don't need to write anything down to place a ballot for candidate A into a stack of ballots for candidate A.
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