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Offline la xasop

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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #20 on: July 02, 2016, 02:51:41 PM »
The election is hinging on five key seats:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-03/election-2016-five-seats-making-the-result-too-close-to-call/7564542

Apparently pre-poll votes should be finished counting within the next hour or so, but postal votes may not be counted for another few days. Depending on just how close these seats are, we may not know the result until the middle of next week.
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Offline la xasop

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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #21 on: July 02, 2016, 03:23:46 PM »
And counting has stopped for the night. It won't resume until Tuesday. Until then, we don't have a government.

Meanwhile, here's a decent summary of where we're at:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-03/election-result-what-happens-now/7564250

Tonight was certainly interesting. We got victory speeches from both major parties and still nobody knows who the winner is (or if there even is one). I'm giving up trying to understand politicians.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2016, 03:25:45 PM by Parsifal »
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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #22 on: July 02, 2016, 09:22:38 PM »
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-03/election-result-what-happens-now/7564250
"Green says the Coalition will win more seats than Labor, so a Labor majority government is not a possibility."

I don't think the ABC understands how possibilities work.
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Offline la xasop

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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #23 on: July 03, 2016, 05:53:22 AM »
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-03/election-result-what-happens-now/7564250
"Green says the Coalition will win more seats than Labor, so a Labor majority government is not a possibility."

I don't think the ABC understands how possibilities work.

That statement makes perfect sense to me. ???

Also, this election has achieved nothing Turnbull wanted it to and made the Senate even worse for him. The trigger for the double dissolution was some legislation he wanted to pass which was being blocked by the crossbench (i.e., parties which are not the Coalition or Labor and independents) in the Senate. That stems from the fact that the Coalition didn't control a clear majority in the Senate.

Well, now Turnbull has gone and dissolved the entire Senate, and the result is that he looks to have an even bigger Senate crossbench to contend with (we'll know for sure in a couple of weeks once all the votes are counted), and likely won't have a majority in the House of Representatives either. So far, this election has been a failure in every sense for Liberal, and a success for Labor only in the fact that it was a failure for Liberal, which makes the party leaders' continued optimism even more baffling.

Whatever happens, the coming weeks will be interesting to watch.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2016, 07:22:28 AM by Parsifal »
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Offline la xasop

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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #24 on: July 04, 2016, 02:08:31 PM »
Counting will resume in a few hours. The final result will likely still be slow coming in, as the most critical seats are going to be the ones where the counting is most closely scrutinised by the major parties, which will slow things down a lot. Apparently we should know by the end of the week, but it's impossible to say more precisely than that.

Anyway, let the shitstorm commence!
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Offline la xasop

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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #25 on: July 06, 2016, 04:43:33 AM »
Day 5 of no government. Businesses are still trading, police are still enforcing the law, and public transport systems are still as good as they ever were (which isn't saying very much, mind you). As yet no detectable sign that anything is amiss.

We still have 8 seats in doubt: http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/list/?selector=indoubt&sort=latest

The one with the lowest percentage counted is 74.2% done, and slowly making progress. We might not know the final numbers until Friday at this rate.
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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #26 on: July 06, 2016, 06:38:57 AM »
Day 5 of no government. Businesses are still trading, police are still enforcing the law, and public transport systems are still as good as they ever were (which isn't saying very much, mind you). As yet no detectable sign that anything is amiss.
5 days is nothing, Belgium survived without a government for like 20 months. Up your game plz.
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Offline la xasop

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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #27 on: July 06, 2016, 03:07:39 PM »
5 days is nothing, Belgium survived without a government for like 20 months. Up your game plz.

Wait another 20 months and we'll see where things are at.

Looks like the counts are hovering around 80% for the seats in doubt. We may get a better idea of what our next Parliament will look like tomorrow.
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Offline la xasop

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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #28 on: July 07, 2016, 08:51:07 AM »
Bob Katter has declared his support for a Turnbull minority government in the event of a hung parliament:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-07/election-2016-bob-katter-to-support-turnbull-in-hung-parliament/7577738

With the way the seats in doubt are looking now, the Coalition could well end up with only 74 seats, meaning Katter's support wouldn't be enough on its own.
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Offline la xasop

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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #29 on: July 07, 2016, 01:15:37 PM »
The South Australian seat of Hindmarsh, currently with a 68-vote margin to Labor after 85.3% of votes counted, could be the difference between a Turnbull government and a return to the polls:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/hind/

If Liberal wins it, they'll likely get 75 seats and form government with the support of Bob Katter. If they don't, they might only win 74 seats and be unable to form government.

There's still a lot up in the air, so I wouldn't count on anything at this point.
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Offline la xasop

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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #30 on: July 08, 2016, 08:23:15 AM »
Well, Turnbull will be our next PM.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-08/antony-green-says-malcolm-turnbull-will-be-returned-as-pm/7580646

He's been promised support from three crossbenchers -- Bob Katter, of Katter's Australian Party, and independents Andrew Wilkie and Cathy McGowan. That will allow him to form minority government in the worst case of the Coalition only getting a 73-seat minority.

It is now only a question of whether he will form a majority government or a minority government. I'm hoping for a minority government, since at least then he'll be accountable to the crossbench, but the votes are still being counted -- the percent counted is lower than yesterday, so presumably they're having another recount.
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Offline la xasop

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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #31 on: July 10, 2016, 09:22:26 AM »
With 5 seats left in doubt, it's now looking probable that the Coalition will gain an outright majority of 76 seats -- the absolute minimum required to form a majority.

That's disappointing, but at least they'll still have the Senate to contend with when passing legislation.
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Offline la xasop

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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #32 on: July 13, 2016, 01:43:46 PM »
The Coalition now definitely has 76 seats. Damn it.

There's one last seat left in doubt, so it'll either be 76 Coalition and 69 Labor, or 77 Coalition and 68 Labor.
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Offline la xasop

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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #33 on: July 16, 2016, 05:11:55 AM »
That last seat currently has a margin of 12 votes:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/herb/

Whoever wins it, I'm sure there's going to be way more spending on infrastructure in Far North Queensland to appease swing voters.
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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #34 on: July 16, 2016, 12:42:12 PM »
All in all, not the result you were hoping for?

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Offline la xasop

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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #35 on: July 19, 2016, 04:28:56 PM »
All in all, not the result you were hoping for?

Not exactly.

The final result in the House of Representatives is that the Coalition has 76 seats. If only they'd gotten one fewer, we would have had a hung parliament and Turnbull would have had to negotiate with crossbenchers.

At least the Senate looks not entirely dismal. David Leyonhjelm still has a reasonable chance of winning his seat back. We should know any day now.
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Offline la xasop

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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #36 on: August 04, 2016, 03:59:14 PM »
David Leyonhjelm has been returned to the Senate, along with nobody else sane.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/senate/

At least we'll get another three years of sensible views being injected into debates. It's just a pity it's one voice among 76.
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Re: 2016 Australian federal election
« Reply #37 on: August 05, 2016, 05:40:11 PM »
Did Malcolm Roberts get reelected?