[Tom Bishop]

Trump won 2016 on the longer term Bellwethers. That is a statistical point in Trump's favor. His results were also consistent in the state county counts posted.

Still waiting for the compelling statistical arguments in favor of Biden. I just see arguments that ridiculous anomalies are "possible" without supporting evidence for those arguments, and without any positive statistical evidence to present supporting Biden's win.

[Rama Set]

Trump won 2016 on the longer term Bellwethers. That is a statistical point in Trump's favor. His results were also consistent in the state county counts posted.

Still waiting for the compelling statistical arguments in favor of Biden. I just see arguments that ridiculous anomalies are "possible" without supporting evidence for those arguments, and without any positive statistical evidence to present supporting Biden's win.

The evidence is that Biden won the election.  Bellwether's are not a necessary phenomena in human behavior, so why should something related to them be seen as necessarily casting doubt on an election?

[Iceman]

Trump won 2016 on the longer term Bellwethers. That is a statistical point in Trump's favor. His results were also consistent in the state county counts posted.

Still waiting for the compelling statistical arguments in favor of Biden. I just see arguments that ridiculous anomalies are "possible" without supporting evidence for those arguments, and without any positive statistical evidence to present supporting Biden's win.

There were >7 million more points of compelling statistical evidence for Biden than for Trump.

All of the statistical anomalies you're alluding to have either been demonstrated to rely on false premises by mathematicians and political scientists, or, as in the bellweather examples, irrelevant to the discussion at hand.

[JSS]

Nope. I can point to the fact that Trump won Bellwethers in 2016. Can you show ANY historical statistical significance in Biden's favor?

I can point to the fact that Hillary won 73 Bellwethers in 2016.

Please do.

I already did, these counties voted for the Presidential winner since 2000, but strangely in 2016 they were ALL wrong.  How could this be... clearly Trump cheated.

VA-Radford ,CA-San Bernardino ,WA-Clark ,VA-Staunton ,CA-Riverside ,NJ-Somerset ,GA-Newton
,WA-Island ,NC-Wake ,NC-Wilson ,TX-Bexar ,AK-District 38 ,SC-Charleston ,AL-Jefferson
,GA-Sumter ,OH-Hamilton ,CA-San Luis Obispo ,IL-DeKalb ,IL-Will ,GA-Rockdale ,VA-Manassas
Park ,MS-Pike ,NY-Dutchess ,CA-San Joaquin ,VA-Hopewell ,VA-Loudoun ,KY-Fayette ,AK-District
39 ,GA-Baldwin ,CO-Alamosa ,IL-Lake ,ID-Latah ,IL-DuPage ,NC-Forsyth ,MN-Washington
,TX-Dallas ,LA-East Baton Rouge ,WA-Skagit ,CA-Fresno ,FL-Hillsborough ,CA-Merced ,MS-Copiah
,TX-Kleberg ,TX-Val Verde ,CO-Ouray ,OR-Clackamas ,VA-Manassas ,NC-Pitt ,TX-Harris
,NC-Buncombe ,MS-Oktibbeha ,CO-Jefferson ,PA-Centre ,CO-Arapahoe ,IL-Winnebago ,IL-Kane
,CO-Larimer ,PA-Monroe ,NV-Washoe ,MN-Dakota ,MS-Yazoo ,NM-Los Alamos ,VA-Henrico
,CA-Stanislaus ,NM-Sandoval ,CA-San Diego ,PA-Dauphin ,CA-Ventura ,GA-Douglas ,MN-Olmsted
,VA-Winchester ,VA-Prince William ,VA-Harrisonburg

Posting a list of counties and stating they are bellweather counties based on what? Elections since 2000? C'mon man!

Based on the fact they voted for the winning president every year since at least 2000.  I don't have access to data for years before that or I'd expand the list. It's the same criteria that Tom used.

Do you feel the same way about Tom's Bellweather 'evidence' as mine? Is his data just as bad? So 30 years of data is terrible but 40 years is totally legit?

Where do you see 40 years?

I see nearly 50 (and for a majority it seems to be over 100).

Cutting corners seems to be a favorite activity of yours.

Where did I see 40 years?  Read the thread you are commenting in.  Right here.

Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat.

Tell you what, you buy or find me the historical voting data for the past 100 years and I can run my analysis on it and give you data showing Trump is a big cheater using it. Would that make you happy?

I don't see you contributing anything but claiming 40 years is absolute proof and 30 years is totally not proving anything. It's easy to criticize someone elses work.

But I'll look for more data. If I find it and can match Toms data going back 50 or 100 years, will you commit to either accept both sets of data, or admitting both are easy to create?

[Roundy]

Most popular president ever

Trump? Wow, I guess there's a new record for that because Biden's already more popular than Trump ever was!

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/biden-job-approval-first-polls.html

[Tom Bishop]

The evidence is that Biden won the election.

That's what you are supposed to be showing supporting evidence of. So you have nothing. Got it.

There were >7 million more points of compelling statistical evidence for Biden than for Trump.

All of the statistical anomalies you're alluding to have either been demonstrated to rely on false premises by mathematicians and political scientists, or, as in the bellweather examples, irrelevant to the discussion at hand.

I don't see anything "demonstrated false". You guys have yet to show positive evidence that Joe Biden is as popular as claimed, or that he legitimately won the election. We have only seen attempted excuses for various anomalies without supporting evidence for those excuses.

Most popular president ever

Trump? Wow, I guess there's a new record for that because Biden's already more popular than Trump ever was!

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/biden-job-approval-first-polls.html

Your liberal sources also said that Hillary Clinton was leading and was going to win big. Non-credible.

[Rama Set]

The evidence is that Biden won the election.

That's what you are supposed to be showing supporting evidence of. So you have nothing. Got it.

We have an inauguration. That is positive evidence that he won.

[Roundy]

Most popular president ever

Trump? Wow, I guess there's a new record for that because Biden's already more popular than Trump ever was!

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/biden-job-approval-first-polls.html

Your liberal sources also said that Hillary Clinton was leading and was going to win big. Non-credible.

Of course, I forgot liberal sources, unlike fringe conservative sources, are always biased and can't be trusted.

Here's a conservative source saying Biden's approval rating is 2 points higher than the same source ever gave Trump!

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-poll-sharp-partisan-divide.amp

Good job Joe, I always knew the people loved ya!

[stack]

The evidence is that Biden won the election.

That's what you are supposed to be showing supporting evidence of. So you have nothing. Got it.

Here's all the supporting evidence you need that Biden won and is now your President:

[Iceman]

The evidence is that Biden won the election.

That's what you are supposed to be showing supporting evidence of. So you have nothing. Got it.

There were >7 million more points of compelling statistical evidence for Biden than for Trump.

All of the statistical anomalies you're alluding to have either been demonstrated to rely on false premises by mathematicians and political scientists, or, as in the bellweather examples, irrelevant to the discussion at hand.

I don't see anything "demonstrated false". You guys have yet to show positive evidence that Joe Biden is as popular as claimed, or that he legitimately won the election. We have only seen attempted excuses for various anomalies without supporting evidence for those excuses.

Most popular president ever

Trump? Wow, I guess there's a new record for that because Biden's already more popular than Trump ever was!

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/biden-job-approval-first-polls.html

Your liberal sources also said that Hillary Clinton was leading and was going to win big. Non-credible.

Roundy's article quoted numerous polls, not just some radical-lefties opinions.

I'm claiming that Joe Biden is popular. I also claim that my friends and colleagues are happy he was elected. They voted for him.

No one is going to walk you through the ridiculousness of arguing Benford's law again; we did that in November. We're also not going to go through the 'one-in-a-bazillion' claims again. You've been shown why bell weather  counties dont matter - and you've been shown counter-bellweathers (which also dont matter!). You've been shown how Biden could have won despite winning a relatively small number of counties.

People here have tried to hold your hand and walk you through this complex election cycle (that went very predictably I might add). But if you keep choosing to willfully not understand what's happening, well, that's on you.

[Tom Bishop]

Here's all the supporting evidence you need that Biden won and is now your President:

Great. You have zero supporting statistical evidence that Joe Biden legitimately won the election, and can't appropriately contradict the items discussed. Thanks for conceding the loss of this discussion.

Roundy's article quoted numerous polls, not just some radical-lefties opinions.

Numerous polls said that Hillary Clinton was leading big. She lost. They also said that Biden was going to win at a much greater margin in the swing states than he did. Wrong again.

I'm claiming that Joe Biden is popular. I also claim that my friends and colleagues are happy he was elected. They voted for him.

No one is going to walk you through the ridiculousness of arguing Benford's law again; we did that in November. We're also not going to go through the 'one-in-a-bazillion' claims again. You've been shown why bell weather  counties dont matter - and you've been shown counter-bellweathers (which also dont matter!). You've been shown how Biden could have won despite winning a relatively small number of counties.

People here have tried to hold your hand and walk you through this complex election cycle (that went very predictably I might add). But if you keep choosing to willfully not understand what's happening, well, that's on you.

You guys were unable to show or produce a source that Joe Biden's votes followed Benford's law. You made some kind of claim that people were doing it wrong. This is not positive evidence in your favor.

[Iceman]

 

if you keep choosing to willfully not understand what's happening, well, that's on you.

[bulmabriefs144]

Virginia did NOT win for Biden.

I was up the night of the election on https://www.elections.virginia.gov and they had counted Abigail Spanberger as losing to the red candidate. Ditto for most of the districts, they were overwhelmingly red. Up until 11pm when I fell asleep. Yet the news was reporting as though Biden had already won, when they were still saying projected results and that they hadn't counted all % yet.  This when some districts had 80% or 90% reporting, and a complete flip is implausible.

The next morning, I woke up and it had flipped blue!

What Virginia really looks like on a district map.



Rigged state...

This is why states should not account population. If a majority of the map looks like this, that should be the end of the story.

[stack]

Here's all the supporting evidence you need that Biden won and is now your President:

Great. You have zero supporting statistical evidence that Joe Biden legitimately won the election, and can't appropriately contradict the items discussed. Thanks for conceding the loss of this discussion.

All the statistical evidence I need that Biden legitimately won the election is that Biden received 306 electoral votes. That's all the statistical evidence required. And the courts all agree. Now 2020's statistical evidence is part of all Presidential election statistical evidence that will be added to the 2024 Presidential election stats and so on. Stats are fun like that.

[Lord Dave]

Virginia did NOT win for Biden.

I was up the night of the election on https://www.elections.virginia.gov and they had counted Abigail Spanberger as losing to the red candidate. Ditto for most of the districts, they were overwhelmingly red. Up until 11pm when I fell asleep. Yet the news was reporting as though Biden had already won, when they were still saying projected results and that they hadn't counted all % yet.  This when some districts had 80% or 90% reporting, and a complete flip is implausible.

The next morning, I woke up and it had flipped blue!

What Virginia really looks like on a district map.



Rigged state...

This is why states should not account population. If a majority of the map looks like this, that should be the end of the story.

NY is similar.  What that map doesn't show is how the losers did. If each county was 49/51% would that make more sense to you?

Also, again, population is a thing.  A county of 20,000 people doesn't hold as much weight as a county of a few million.  Yet that map doesn't show the weight.

[stack]

This is why states should not account population. If a majority of the map looks like this, that should be the end of the story.

What would be your alternative proposal?

[AATW]

Virginia did NOT win for Biden.

I was up the night of the election on https://www.elections.virginia.gov and they had counted Abigail Spanberger as losing to the red candidate. Ditto for most of the districts, they were overwhelmingly red. Up until 11pm when I fell asleep. Yet the news was reporting as though Biden had already won, when they were still saying projected results and that they hadn't counted all % yet.  This when some districts had 80% or 90% reporting, and a complete flip is implausible.

The next morning, I woke up and it had flipped blue!

Sigh.

This really isn't difficult to understand. Look. This is from last September:

CNN polls released last month found that a record number of voters plan to cast ballots in the mail, and that this surge is driven by supporters of former Vice President Joe Biden. Fueling this partisan divide is President Donald Trump's months-long public relations campaign against mail-in voting, which he has falsely said leads to widespread fraud and "rigged" elections.
It takes longer to count mail-in ballots, and in many states, ballots are still admissible if they are postmarked by Election Day but arrive later. In simple terms, this means the partial results that get reported on Election Night will probably look worse for Biden than the final, complete count

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/01/politics/2020-election-count-red-mirage-blue-shift/index.html

This was all known long before election day. Why are so many people being surprised and expressing incredulity about things which were known?

[AATW]

This is why states should not account population. If a majority of the map looks like this, that should be the end of the story.

Have you heard of population density?
What you're suggesting is that counties with a low population should "count" more than those with a high population.
Taking an extreme example. Imagine a state with 50 counties.
49 have a population of 1 each.
The other county has a population of a million.
Let's say the 49 people in the 49 counties all vote for Trump.
And all million people in the last county vote for Biden.

So in terms of counties you have 49-1, a nice red map with a little splash of blue.
But in terms of votes it's a million to Biden and 49 to Trump (or you could imagine it the other way around)
Are you suggesting that State should be red because of the 49 people?

[Dr Van Nostrand]

Great. You have zero supporting statistical evidence that Joe Biden legitimately won the election, and can't appropriately contradict the items discussed. Thanks for conceding the loss of this discussion.

This is the same thing you say in flat earth arguments.


You and others like you are pushing the narrative that Vladimir Putin has sold the American public on social media. Perhaps his next assault on the nation's capital will be more successful.

Congratulations comrade, there will be a special place of respect for you in the new Russian Federation.

[JSS]

Your liberal sources also said that Hillary Clinton was leading and was going to win big. Non-credible.

She did get more than three million votes than Trump, they were right that more people wanted her than Trump.  She was more popular, as predicted.  Trump just squeezed out a victory in the electoral college.