Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« on: May 14, 2019, 05:48:11 PM »
Can any FEr demonstrate how the Total Solar Eclipse of July 2nd 2019 is predicted under FE map and conditions?
How the FE Moon comes under the FE Sun on that particular path?


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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2019, 10:55:20 PM »
Can any FEr demonstrate how the Total Solar Eclipse of July 2nd 2019 is predicted under FE map and conditions?
How the FE Moon comes under the FE Sun on that particular path?


Hmm... and why is the path of totality curved? Seems odd.
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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2019, 12:24:24 AM »
See these two links:

https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

https://wiki.tfes.org/Astronomical_Prediction_Based_on_Patterns#The_Eclipses

The path is not a perfect arc because as the earth rotates on its axis it is also moving around the sun.  There are two motions at play, so the globe paths for a solar eclipse is perfectly normal.
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Offline markjo

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2019, 12:43:01 AM »
See these two links:

https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

https://wiki.tfes.org/Astronomical_Prediction_Based_on_Patterns#The_Eclipses
Tom, would you care to point out in either of those links how the path of totality of a solar eclipse can be predicted by Saros alone?
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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2019, 01:05:23 AM »
See these two links:

https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

https://wiki.tfes.org/Astronomical_Prediction_Based_on_Patterns#The_Eclipses
Tom, would you care to point out in either of those links how the path of totality of a solar eclipse can be predicted by Saros alone?

http://www.gutenberg.org/files/34834/34834-h/34834-h.htm

Quote
72. Recurrence of eclipses.—Before the beginning of the Christian era astronomers had found out a rough-and-ready method of predicting eclipses, which is still of interest and value. The substance of the method is that if we start with any eclipse whatever—e. g., the eclipse of May 28, 1900—and reckon forward or backward from that date a period of 18 years and 10 or 11 days, we shall find another eclipse quite similar in its general characteristics to the one with which we started. Thus, from the map of eclipses (Fig. 36), we find that a total solar eclipse will occur on June 8, 1918, 18 years and 11 days after the one illustrated in Fig. 35. This period of 18 years and 11 days is called saros, an ancient word which means cycle or repetition, and since[Pg 116] every eclipse is repeated after the lapse of a saros, we may find the dates of all the eclipses of 1918 by adding 11 days to the dates given in the table of eclipses for 1900 (§ 67), and it is to be especially noted that each eclipse of 1918 will be like its predecessor of 1900 in character—lunar, solar, partial, total, etc. The eclipses of any year may be predicted by a similar reference to those which occurred eighteen years earlier. Consult a file of old almanacs.

« Last Edit: May 15, 2019, 01:26:26 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Offline markjo

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2019, 01:50:08 AM »
That doesn't really answer my question. 

First of all, the Saros cycle is closer to 8 years, 11 days, 8 hours.  That extra 8 hours means that same eclipse in the next cycle will be about 120 degrees of longitude away from the previous one.

Secondly, I'll concede that Saros is pretty good at telling you when an eclipse will occur, but I asked where it would occur (path of totality).  How do you suppose that the path of totality for a baseline solar eclipse could be determined by observation alone, especially considering that large parts of such paths are often over open ocean?

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2019, 01:56:55 AM »
It also says that partial eclipses can be predicted via Saros, which can be seen over a very great area. People don't need to be in the middle of the ocean to know where the totality will be at.

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2019, 02:02:33 AM »
See these two links:

https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

https://wiki.tfes.org/Astronomical_Prediction_Based_on_Patterns#The_Eclipses
I read both links. How is it possible for the path of totality to be in the shape of a hill instead of a regular arc on the flat earth? This can be explained on the globe earth.
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Offline markjo

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2019, 02:35:15 AM »
It also says that partial eclipses can be predicted via Saros, which can be seen over a very great area.
Again, that isn't what I asked.  But since you mention it, can Saros alone predict what percentage of the sun will be eclipsed at a given location?

People don't need to be in the middle of the ocean to know where the totality will be at.
It looks like you did for the June 1937 eclipse for which almost the entire path of totality was over the Pacific Ocean.
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Offline stack

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2019, 03:57:44 AM »
It also says that partial eclipses can be predicted via Saros, which can be seen over a very great area. People don't need to be in the middle of the ocean to know where the totality will be at.

Neither of the wiki entries address the "where" down to the meter that modern astronomical calculations can. Until such time that they can, they are moot.

If you are confident in a contrary position, use the Saros cycles and your wiki to show us where exactly totality will occur on a flat earth for 7/2/19.
Not much is known about the celestial bodies and their distances.

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #11 on: May 15, 2019, 05:04:37 AM »
If you guys want to know how prediction of the eclipses work, open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic. That's how it is predicted. It's all there. If you are curious about the details, look into it. It has nothing to do with the Wiki.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2019, 05:59:03 PM by Tom Bishop »

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Offline stack

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2019, 05:39:21 AM »
If you guys want to know how prediction of the eclipses work, open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic. That's how it's predicted. It's all there. If you are curious about the details, look into it. It has nothing to do with the Wiki.

Good, we agree, eclipse prediction has nothing to do with the wiki.

But why then did you cite the wiki up above in your initial comment to this thread:

See these two links:

https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

https://wiki.tfes.org/Astronomical_Prediction_Based_on_Patterns#The_Eclipses

However, the OP is: "Can any FEr demonstrate how the Total Solar Eclipse of July 2nd 2019 is predicted under FE map and conditions?
How the FE Moon comes under the FE Sun on that particular path?"

Seemingly the wiki and FE cannot demonstrate how the Total Solar Eclipse of July 2nd 2019 is predicted specifically under FE map and conditions. So I guess that's that.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2019, 07:02:05 AM by stack »
Not much is known about the celestial bodies and their distances.

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Offline markjo

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #13 on: May 15, 2019, 01:37:03 PM »
If you guys want to know how prediction of the eclipses work, open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic. That's how it's predicted. It's all there.
Umm...  All the astronomy text books are written from an RE perspective.  How does that help explain FE eclipse predictions?

If you are curious about the details, look into it.
I am looking into it.  I'm consulting one of the preeminent FE researchers of modern times, but he doesn't seem to be much help.

It has nothing to do with the Wiki.
???  What's the point of having an FE wiki page about eclipses if not to explain how eclipses work on a flat earth?
« Last Edit: May 15, 2019, 01:38:42 PM by markjo »
Abandon hope all ye who press enter here.

Science is what happens when preconception meets verification.

If you can't demonstrate it, then you shouldn't believe it.

Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #14 on: May 15, 2019, 05:13:52 PM »
If you guys want to know how prediction of the eclipses work, open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic. That's how it's predicted. It's all there. If you are curious about the details, look into it. It has nothing to do with the Wiki.
Here: http://eclipsewise.com/help/de405-predictions.html
Quote
The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE405 solar system ephemeris. This ephemeris consists of computer representations of the positions, velocities and accelerations of major Solar System bodies, tabulated at equally spaced intervals of time, covering the span 1599 Dec 09 to 2201 Feb 20. Beginning in 2003, the JPL DE405 has been the basis of the Astronomical Almanac. See Jet Propulsion Laboratory Developmental Ephemeris for more information of the JPL ephemerides.
So not using the Saros cycle like you say it is.
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Offline Bad Puppy

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #15 on: May 15, 2019, 08:00:45 PM »
If you guys want to know how prediction of the eclipses work, open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic. That's how it is predicted. It's all there. If you are curious about the details, look into it. It has nothing to do with the Wiki.

Are you thinking of any specific textbooks, or are you willing to accept that ANY astronomy textbook will be correct?
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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #16 on: May 15, 2019, 10:55:04 PM »
Seemingly the wiki and FE cannot demonstrate how the Total Solar Eclipse of July 2nd 2019 is predicted specifically under FE map and conditions. So I guess that's that.

Austrian astronomer Theodor von Oppolzer worked it out using a FE map and the Saros Cycle. See: https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

The paths make perfect arcs, unlike the Round Earth model.

If you guys want to know how prediction of the eclipses work, open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic. That's how it's predicted. It's all there. If you are curious about the details, look into it. It has nothing to do with the Wiki.
Here: http://eclipsewise.com/help/de405-predictions.html
Quote
The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE405 solar system ephemeris. This ephemeris consists of computer representations of the positions, velocities and accelerations of major Solar System bodies, tabulated at equally spaced intervals of time, covering the span 1599 Dec 09 to 2201 Feb 20. Beginning in 2003, the JPL DE405 has been the basis of the Astronomical Almanac. See Jet Propulsion Laboratory Developmental Ephemeris for more information of the JPL ephemerides.
So not using the Saros cycle like you say it is.

It says that the model was only used to get the position of the sun, not to predict the eclipse.

Do some searching and you will find that JPL DE405 is based on perturbation prediction.

« Last Edit: May 15, 2019, 11:56:55 PM by Tom Bishop »

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #17 on: May 16, 2019, 12:01:12 AM »
Austrian astronomer Theodor von Oppolzer worked it out using a FE map and the Saros Cycle. See: https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

The paths make perfect arcs, unlike the Round Earth model.
The 2017 total solar eclipse is not a perfect arc. And most eclipses you look at aren't perfect arcs either. Look at future eclipses around the poles (well... North Pole) and you'll notice that it they aren't perfect arcs. The future eclipse spherical showed wasn't a perfect arc either. It was in the shape of a hill.
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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #18 on: May 16, 2019, 12:08:56 AM »
Austrian astronomer Theodor von Oppolzer worked it out using a FE map and the Saros Cycle. See: https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

The paths make perfect arcs, unlike the Round Earth model.
The 2017 total solar eclipse is not a perfect arc. And most eclipses you look at aren't perfect arcs either. Look at future eclipses around the poles (well... North Pole) and you'll notice that it they aren't perfect arcs. The future eclipse spherical showed wasn't a perfect arc either. It was in the shape of a hill.

What are you talking about? On Flat Earth maps the paths are perfect arcs. They are distorted on other types of maps because they are not correct.

Here is Oppolzer's map for 2010-2028. The 2017 eclipse is a perfect arc on this map.

« Last Edit: May 16, 2019, 12:26:14 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Offline Bad Puppy

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Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
« Reply #19 on: May 16, 2019, 12:23:39 AM »
Austrian astronomer Theodor von Oppolzer worked it out using a FE map and the Saros Cycle. See: https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

The paths make perfect arcs, unlike the Round Earth model.
The 2017 total solar eclipse is not a perfect arc. And most eclipses you look at aren't perfect arcs either. Look at future eclipses around the poles (well... North Pole) and you'll notice that it they aren't perfect arcs. The future eclipse spherical showed wasn't a perfect arc either. It was in the shape of a hill.

What are you talking about? On Flat Earth maps the paths are perfect arcs. They are distorted on other types of maps because they are not correct.



No, Tom.  On a globe Earth the paths are not perfect arcs because there are two independent movements involved: the Earth's rotation on its axis, and the moon's orbit around the Earth.  The combination of those two motions produce the hill-shaped shadow path of the eclipse.  Open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic.
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