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That particular bit of bad math has been destroyed repeatedly.
The argument is basically "Well this thing happened before and didn't happen now so this other thing is totally wrong."
Pandemic + Historically Fucktardish President = Anomolous Election Results
This is a claim.
A claim is evidence.
I win.
Everyone: I don’t see it Tom
Tom: This is evidence. I win.
Everyone: We see something different. This is also evidence.
Tom: I don’t see it. I win.
Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat.
They’ve been dubbed “bellwether counties” and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one.
In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin.
Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Two states have announced recounts.
Bellwethers aren’t a crystal ball—their streak was expected to end sooner or later. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically.
There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average.
And then there’s Vigo County in Indiana—the quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952.
This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck.
Bellwether Characteristics
The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire.
There’s significant variability among them, though. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have “substantial Native American populations,” the authors said.
The counties “tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions,” they said.
Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West.
“The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four,” they said.
The counties are also mostly small and rural.
“Just two have populations in excess of 100,000,” the authors said.
The bellwethers’ ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next.
Scoring All Counties
The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their “bellwether score”—their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential elections—giving progressively larger weight to more recent elections.
“The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate,” they said.
“Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.”
They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend.
“The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties,” they said.
“High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers.”
As I said before, his ears are completely different.
The facial disfigurement between the eyebrows is completely different, they are curved in different directions!
One of their faces is much more gaunt than the other, skin tone is different, hairstyles are different
You know you're missing two moles around the neck, right?
Also, is this you? Because I can't seem to find the original source of the (supposidly) dead marine.
Was scrolling through the wiki, in the Coriolis effect article, when I found this gem.QuoteIn those highly controlled settings, scientists at MIT in the 1960s were able to show that Coriolis could work on a draining tub. In fact, I have been told that graduate students at MIT still do this experiment today in one of their classes.
Tom, if you're going to cherrypick quotes, at least have the sense to:
1. Remove the sections that count against FET
2. At least attempt to address the questions raised.
You didn't answer the question, what fraud evidence, specifically, was released "One Hour After Biden Sworn In..."? That's your claim. Back it up.
I don't necessarily want to talk about it. It's just exemplary of the sheer metric ton of unsubstantiated claims you glom on to without a smidge of evidence. All because your narrative has been shown to be false. And your Falconer and Survivor contestant's terabytes of treasonous evidence against the Obama administration just so happens to be one of the more fantastical ones you were hanging on to. And then "poof", it disappeared. All in all, you have have less than zero credibility when it comes to your claims, as evidenced by everything you've put forth for the past couple of months.
If you want to talk about unsubstantiated lies, what fraud evidenced was released "One Hour After Biden Sworn In..."? What was the evidence and who released it?
And if you really want to talk about unsubstantiated lies, how are we doing with your Falconer and Survivor contestant's terabytes of treasonous evidence against the Obama administration? We're still waiting on that. What's the hold-up now?
I gave you a quote that it was already decided that the data contained evidence of fraud. Look into why that was decided if you are interested.
If you want to talk about Obama now, and claims that someone made, then it looks like you have given up and are out of ammo, in your poor attempt at substantiating your claims.If you want to focus on the word fraud, why not examine these three quotes? This is also you shifting the goalposts, I did not limit my statement to 'fraud' either. That's twice you have done that.
Trump’s campaign “did not prove under any standard of proof that illegal votes were cast and counted, or legal votes were not counted at all, due to voter fraud, nor in an amount equal to or greater than” Biden’s margin in Nevada - District Court Judge James T. Russell
“Plaintiffs have not moved the needle for their fraud theory from conceivable to plausible, which they must do to state a claim under Federal pleading standards,” - District Court Judge Diane J. Humetewa
“The court finds that there is no credible or reliable evidence that the 2020 General Election in Nevada was affected by fraud.” - Nevada District Judge James Russell
This shows conclusively that some judges did rule on the merits of the case, and found the evidence to be entirely lacking. Which is exactly what I claimed.
You provided quotes from two judges here.
You are supposed to be showing that the bulk of the 60 cases were dismissed on merit, or that the bulk of the voter fraud cases were dismissed on merit, to allow you to keep using this claim about the courts finding no merit to voter fraud.
No I am not supposed to be showing that, re-read my claim that started this.
The whole 'no judges considered any lawsuits on the merits' is a myth, plenty of judges specifically took the Trump lawyers to task for not providing any evidence.
You added the condition they must be 'fraud'. You added the condition that 'the bulk' of them must be. You can not shift the goalposts and demand I prove your argument.
I have proven that some judges did indeed consider the case on it's merits, and rejected it.
If you want to claim that there was valid evidence that was rejected due to Trump's lawers making mistakes and filing them incorrectly, it's up to you to show them. I've shown exactly what I claimed.
In the Stinson case, there were a large number of fraudulent votes that had been discovered and proven. To date, nobody has found 7 million fake votes for Biden. Even after multiple hand recounts in several battleground states.
If any real evidence [for voter fraud] existed it would have been presented in one of the hundred odd GOP lawsuits that got tossed out due to a total lack of evidence. The whole 'no judges considered any lawsuits on the merits' is a myth, plenty of judges specifically took the Trump lawyers to task for not providing any evidence. They were very clear on this.
Biden won, legitimately and honestly and is not going to be removed by any fantasy lawsuit with nonexistent evidence. He won by over 7 million votes. Nobody has been able to show any large scale fraud. In fact in Pennsylvania after an extremely detailed check found only three fraudulent votes. Three. All voting
If you want to talk about unsubstantiated lies, what fraud evidenced was released "One Hour After Biden Sworn In..."? What was the evidence and who released it?
And if you really want to talk about unsubstantiated lies, how are we doing with your Falconer and Survivor contestant's terabytes of treasonous evidence against the Obama administration? We're still waiting on that. What's the hold-up now?
If you want to focus on the word fraud, why not examine these three quotes? This is also you shifting the goalposts, I did not limit my statement to 'fraud' either. That's twice you have done that.
Trump’s campaign “did not prove under any standard of proof that illegal votes were cast and counted, or legal votes were not counted at all, due to voter fraud, nor in an amount equal to or greater than” Biden’s margin in Nevada - District Court Judge James T. Russell
“Plaintiffs have not moved the needle for their fraud theory from conceivable to plausible, which they must do to state a claim under Federal pleading standards,” - District Court Judge Diane J. Humetewa
“The court finds that there is no credible or reliable evidence that the 2020 General Election in Nevada was affected by fraud.” - Nevada District Judge James Russell
This shows conclusively that some judges did rule on the merits of the case, and found the evidence to be entirely lacking. Which is exactly what I claimed.