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Other Discussion Boards => Philosophy, Religion & Society => Topic started by: Parsifal on November 25, 2016, 09:48:59 PM

Title: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on November 25, 2016, 09:48:59 PM
On 15 March next year, the Netherlands will go to the polls and decide their next government. Recent developments have made this look likely to become as big of a deal as Brexit or Trump.

Currently, if the polls are to be believed, the most likely next Prime Minister of the Netherlands is Geert Wilders, leader of the Party for Freedom (PVV, Partij voor de Vrijheid). Among their policies are holding a legally binding referendum on Nexit (a Netherlands exit from the EU), restricting immigration from Islamic countries, and denationalising and deporting dual nationals who commit serious crimes. Wilders has recently seen a popularity boost after being prosecuted for making "racist" comments about Moroccan immigrants -- specifically, asking his supporters if they want to see fewer of them.

His most likely (and only serious) opposition is Mark Rutte, the current incumbent. Rutte leads the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD, Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie), a fairly moderate centre-right party. Sadly, like many incumbent powers across Europe, VVD has largely ignored the current immigration crisis, though I like basically all of their other policies.

Because of the way the Dutch electoral system works, no one party has ever had an outright majority in the Second Chamber (Tweede Kamer, analogous to the UK House of Commons or the US House of Representatives). This means that whoever of Wilders or Rutte becomes Prime Minister, they are very likely to need to work with the other to form a coalition government. I say "likely" because there is the possibility that either one could work with other, smaller parties instead.

Either way, it will be interesting to see what happens regarding Nexit. It will be even more difficult for the Netherlands to leave the EU than it is for the UK, because they are also a part of the Eurozone and the Schengen Agreement. Most of PVV's other policies hinge on a successful Nexit, since they require autonomy over the Dutch immigration policy.

I'll post some more background information on the parties involved here when I have time.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Dionysios on November 25, 2016, 11:46:41 PM
...It will be even more difficult for the Netherlands to leave the EU than it is for the UK, because they are also a part of the Eurozone and the Schengen Agreement.

German capitalists use things like the Schengen agreement to make the European Union attractive and focus attention away from their control of it. The EU is a social democratic (i.e. social fascist) alternative to Nazism which serves the same master and has the same objectives. The Dutch also had a difficult time asserting their national sovereignty to the Germans in the early 1940's.

Anyone who doubts that the EU is a Trojan horse of fascism should look at the plethora of racist scapegoating politicians in Europe who these days use Muslims in place of Jews - just like Trump.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on November 26, 2016, 12:03:29 AM
Anyone who doubts that the EU is a Trojan horse of fascism should look at the plethora of racist scapegoating politicians in Europe who these days use Muslims in place of Jews - just like Trump.

This makes absolutely no sense. Aside from the fact that Islam is not a race, European politicians, like Wilders, who are opposed to Muslim immigration are generally also opposed to the EU.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Dionysios on November 26, 2016, 05:14:46 AM
My point is that my impression is scapegoating of Muslims seems almost common these days among politicians in multiple European countries. 

Forgive me for speaking so openly, but when I hear talk about banning immigration specifically from Muslim countries allegedly not being racist because Islam is not a race, I begin to reassess the source of what I'm hearing as analogous in quality to the dissimulations of a Goebbels or an American military public affairs officer.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on November 26, 2016, 02:21:21 PM
My point is that my impression is scapegoating of Muslims seems almost common these days among politicians in multiple European countries.

That wasn't your point at all. You were specifically talking about the EU, an institution those politicians are opposed to. Feel free to retract that point and pose a more rational one instead, but don't try to claim you were saying something else all along.

Forgive me for speaking so openly, but when I hear talk about banning immigration specifically from Muslim countries allegedly not being racist because Islam is not a race, I begin to reassess the source of what I'm hearing as analogous in quality to the dissimulations of a Goebbels or an American military public affairs officer.

Why, do they also use words based on their actual definitions?
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Dionysios on November 26, 2016, 04:53:12 PM
Currently, if the polls are to be believed, the most likely next Prime Minister of the Netherlands is Geert Wilders, leader of the Party for Freedom (PVV, Partij voor de Vrijheid). Among their policies are holding a legally binding referendum on Nexit (a Netherlands exit from the EU), restricting immigration from Islamic countries, and denationalising and deporting dual nationals who commit serious crimes. Wilders has recently seen a popularity boost after being prosecuted for making "racist" comments about Moroccan immigrants -- specifically, asking his supporters if they want to see fewer of them.

His most likely (and only serious) opposition is Mark Rutte, the current incumbent. Rutte leads the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy

On the bigger picture, the trends evidenced by the whole scenario brings to mind a comment by Ana Pauker (of pre-Caesescu Romania) that Germany would not invade Russia again unless it was reunited and had the backing of the United States.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Dionysios on November 26, 2016, 05:06:23 PM
That wasn't your point at all. You were specifically talking about the EU, an institution those politicians are opposed to. Feel free to retract that point and pose a more rational one instead, but don't try to claim you were saying something else all along.
...
Why, do they also use words based on their actual definitions?
As I disagree with all of the above and we cannot get past this point, then I would say I would agree to disagree.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Rushy on November 26, 2016, 09:36:02 PM
You want to "agree to disagree" after you made statements so laughably false that you clearly don't have even rudimentary knowledge of European politics? It would be pretty embarrassing to "agree to disagree" at this point. At least have the courtesy of conceding.

Geert will win in the Netherlands. Maybe Le Pen will win in France, but her chances are dwindling.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on November 27, 2016, 09:37:59 AM
PVV is another 3 seats ahead in today's Peil poll.

https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?a=peil.nl&s=weekpoll&f=2016-11-27.pdf

Of particular interest is the third table (at the top of page 2). However divided the Dutch population may be on his policies, 71% of them believe that a guilty verdict against Wilders will increase his party's popularity. Everyone can see it, it seems, except his prosecutors.

When will people learn that trying to silence political opposition doesn't work?
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Dionysios on November 27, 2016, 01:17:50 PM
From the moment I read the opening post, I had a suspicion that in addition to obviously some bourgeois in their own countries, fascist and racist politicians such as Wilders or Greece's Golden Dawn have also been sponsored by German and American sources which are not at all opposed to the European Union, and there seems to be evidence of this.

https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/geert-wilders-dutch-anti-muslim-party-forced-reveal-us-donor

Whether they individually believe it or not, I suspect that many far right European politicians use Eurosceptic rhetoric because they would otherwise have a significantly less following, but actions speak louder the words. In Greece, Golden Dawn members have murdered anti-EU and anti-austerity activists.

One of the more interesting aspects about fascist politicians is their allies. Golden Dawn criminals have gotten lighter treatment from the law than leftists do for far inferior crimes. The Weimar Republic likewise treated Hitler the same way as did pre-Franco Spain's government did to the fascist criminals there.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on November 27, 2016, 01:21:30 PM
Can we please not make every second post in this thread about Hitler? If you're going to criticise Wilders, then criticise his policies instead of calling him names, and certainly don't start derailing the discussion towards irrelevant actions by unrelated parties in other countries.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Dionysios on November 27, 2016, 01:29:26 PM
The Southern Poverty Law Center's page on David Horowitz, one of Wilder's American financial backers:

https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/individual/david-horowitz
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on November 27, 2016, 01:32:53 PM
The Southern Poverty Law Center's page on David Horowitz, one of Wilder's American financial backers:

https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/individual/david-horowitz

Is there something about this page in particular that you find troubling?
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Ghost Spaghetti on November 28, 2016, 10:09:28 AM
I don't know much about Dutch politics but what little I do know is that I wouldn't want Geert Wilders anywhere near the reins of power.

Judging purely by which European and Global parties they belong to, my vote would probably go to GroenLinks.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on November 28, 2016, 10:49:26 AM
I don't know much about Dutch politics but what little I do know is that I wouldn't want Geert Wilders anywhere near the reins of power.

In an ideal world, he wouldn't need to be. Unfortunately, he (along with other populist leaders throughout Europe) may be the wake-up call the establishment needs, like Brexit and Trump before them.

Judging purely by which European and Global parties they belong to, my vote would probably go to GroenLinks.

I'd rather have Wilders as dictator for life than a single term of GroenLinks.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Jura-Glenlivet on November 28, 2016, 11:53:14 AM
There is a shift to the right across the world now, in reaction to institutions such as the EU rather than in support, the German Afd wants the dissolution of the Euro-zone because of its historical support of immigration and liberal reforms such as gay marriage, there is much wrong with the EU, but a “Trojan Horse for fascism” it isn’t.



I'd rather have Wilders as dictator for life than a single term of GroenLinks.

Saving the Earth? Over my dead body.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Pete Svarrior on November 28, 2016, 07:24:23 PM
Saving the Earth? Over my dead body.
An astounding amount of "green" organisations and political parties are actual threats to sustainability. Perhaps unsurprisingly, GroenLinks is a great example.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Jura-Glenlivet on November 28, 2016, 09:10:17 PM

Intrigued, go on?
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Ghost Spaghetti on November 30, 2016, 04:36:59 PM
Saving the Earth? Over my dead body.
An astounding amount of "green" organisations and political parties are actual threats to sustainability. Perhaps unsurprisingly, GroenLinks is a great example.

As I say, I know next to nothing about Dutch Politics, all I know of GL is that they're in the same Political group in the European Parliament as my party, the Green Party of England and Wales. As Jura said, what's wrong with GL?
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Dionysios on December 03, 2016, 06:50:38 PM
There is a shift to the right across the world now, in reaction to institutions such as the EU rather than in support, the German Afd wants the dissolution of the Euro-zone because of its historical support of immigration and liberal reforms such as gay marriage, there is much wrong with the EU, but a “Trojan Horse for fascism” it isn’t.

These days, the more prominent fascist sort of european politicians talk anti-EU rhetoric, but the EU has been around long enough to see things change.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on December 04, 2016, 03:24:01 PM
https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?a=peil.nl&s=weekpoll&f=2016-12-04d.pdf

PVV has gained another seat, and VVD lost one. That means PVV now has a 10-seat lead.

Just needs to maintain it for another 3 months, and they'll be elected to almost certain government.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: George on December 09, 2016, 05:00:35 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/09/world/europe/geert-wilders-netherlands-trial.html

wah-wah
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on December 09, 2016, 10:30:26 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/09/world/europe/geert-wilders-netherlands-trial.html

This is only likely to bolster his popularity even further. I'm looking forward to seeing this weekend's Peil numbers.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on December 11, 2016, 12:10:45 PM
https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?a=peil.nl&s=weekpoll&f=2016-12--11.pdf

PVV is another 2 seats ahead and VVD 1 behind, making for a 13-seat lead. PVV now has almost as many seats as the next two parties combined.

There was also this poll earlier in the week:

https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?r=pp164505&f=Veroordeling+Wilders.pdf

50% of Dutch people thought Wilders should have been acquitted, and 55% thought that it was a bad decision to prosecute him.

Regarding the earlier discussion about GroenLinks, it comes as no surprise that 87% of GroenLinks voters agreed with the guilty verdict (though some disagreed with the judgment giving him no penalty). GroenLinks is second only to PvdA (Labour Party) in opposing free speech.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Dionysios on December 13, 2016, 12:23:24 AM
http://m.democracynow.org/headline/45700

Would you say Holland's government has a tendency to invoke police state powers as frequently as France?
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on December 13, 2016, 05:29:05 AM
http://m.democracynow.org/headline/45700

Would you say Holland's government has a tendency to invoke police state powers as frequently as France?

No, but the Netherlands hasn't had as many successful terrorist attacks in recent years as France (or Belgium or Germany, for that matter). This is likely attributable to their more cautious refugee intake process, which is only going to become stricter once Wilders is in power.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on December 18, 2016, 01:05:02 PM
http://nltimes.nl/2016/12/16/pm-rutte-eu-agree-ukraine-deal-dutch-opposition-furious

Mark Rutte has struck a deal with other EU countries to press on with the Ukraine association agreement that was rejected in a nationwide referendum earlier this year. He has attempted a "compromise" in which the agreement is amended to explicitly exclude it from being a "stepping stone" to EU membership for Ukraine, with which he appears to have succeeded in antagonising everyone equally. Not only are other EU states displeased with the amendment, but the Dutch people are displeased with the agreement being ratified against their vote.

It's exactly this sort of thing, putting EU politics ahead of voters at home, which has driven the populist movement to where it is now. Clearly PVV's rising popularity has taught the established ruling class nothing. Maybe the election on 15 March will be a learning experience.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on January 07, 2017, 12:27:48 AM
(http://img.sjm.so/geertsangels)
http://www.pvv.nl/index.php/36-fj-related/geert-wilders/9403-geerts-angels.html

Wilders has published his party's list of candidates (http://www.pvv.nl/index.php/36-fj-related/geert-wilders/9405-pvv-kandidatenlijst-15-maart-2017.html) for this year's election, with the #2 and #3 spots being taken by the lovely ladies in the picture above.

Also, there will be a new Peil opinion poll tomorrow, the first of 2017. It will be interesting to see how much the terror attacks over the Christmas period have bolstered PVV's standing.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on January 09, 2017, 12:34:41 PM
As it turns out, PVV lost 1 seat in the latest poll. They're still way ahead of everyone else, though.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on January 26, 2017, 08:36:28 PM
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/01/geert-wilders-doesnt-threaten-dutch-liberalism-hes-defending-it/

Can't really disagree with anything here.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Crudblud on January 26, 2017, 11:31:29 PM
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/01/geert-wilders-doesnt-threaten-dutch-liberalism-hes-defending-it/

Can't really disagree with anything here.

Douglas Murray is generally very good at everything.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on January 30, 2017, 10:36:20 AM
http://nieuwsnl.org/wereld/2017/01/26/88468-premiersdebat-rtl-nieuws-met-vier-lijsttrekkers.html

On 1 February, it will be decided which party leaders will participate in the RTL debate. RTL Nieuws is a Dutch news broadcaster which traditionally holds a debate with the leaders of the four biggest parties before an election, but this year there are a lot of parties very close in the polls around spot 4, so there may be more participants.

About the only thing we can be certain of is that Geert Wilders (PVV) and Mark Rutte (VVD) will be involved.

The actual debate itself happens on 26 February, and will be Wilders's first. Given the enormous hatred between him and the other parties, this could get heated.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on February 01, 2017, 06:02:47 AM
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/01/31/populist-geert-wilders-praises-donald-trumps-travel-order.html

Wilders is praising Trump's actions as president, much to the indignation of his political opponents.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on February 01, 2017, 01:40:32 PM
https://twitter.com/VVD/status/826760499643703297

Meanwhile, the current ruling party is desperately tweeting out videos of moderately comforting news headlines in a last-ditch effort to save votes.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on February 04, 2017, 03:03:28 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/04/poll-topping-wilders-stop-islam-tram-branding-run-dutch-elections/

I wanna ride one of those trams.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on February 06, 2017, 06:02:32 PM
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4189856/Rabble-rouser-nail-EU-s-coffin.html

Another topical English-language article.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on February 11, 2017, 10:30:13 PM
http://www.nu.nl/politiek/4460955/wilders-ziet-af-van-koranverbod.html

Wilders has decided not to push ahead with a policy of banning the Qur'an. This will likely be a huge boost to both his popularity in the election, and his chances of forming a coalition government after the election.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on February 16, 2017, 02:42:21 AM
One month until the big day.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Crudblud on February 16, 2017, 07:08:49 AM
http://www.nu.nl/politiek/4460955/wilders-ziet-af-van-koranverbod.html

Wilders has decided not to push ahead with a policy of banning the Qur'an. This will likely be a huge boost to both his popularity in the election, and his chances of forming a coalition government after the election.

Banning books is never a good idea. I'm glad Wilders has finally taken that back.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on February 16, 2017, 08:51:42 AM
Banning books is never a good idea. I'm glad Wilders has finally taken that back.

I agree. I'm not sure he was ever serious about it in the first place; he brought it up in the context of a debate about banning Mein Kampf. It really speaks volumes that nobody gives a shit about Mein Kampf being banned, but they shit all over Wilders for wanting to ban the Qur'an.

What's puzzling to me is why he included it in his election platform, but that doesn't matter now that he's clarified his position.


Meanwhile, VVD is ramping up their assimilation policies as the election gets closer:

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=nl&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraaf.nl%2Fbinnenland%2F27630194%2F___Integratie_moet_strenger___.html&edit-text=
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on February 19, 2017, 02:41:28 PM
With less than a month to go, things are heating up between Wilders and the media. Last week, Wilders and Rutte together boycotted the RTL debate taking place next week among potential Prime Minister candidates (http://nos.nl/artikel/2157894-rtl-schrapt-premiersdebat-na-afzeggen-pvv-en-vvd.html) because RTL wanted to invite more than the traditional four candidates. Now, Wilders has boycotted the RTL-organised Carré debate next month as well (http://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nederland/politiek/geert-wilders-geen-carredebat-na-interview-broer), because RTL Nieuws published an interview with his brother about his political campaign.

That leaves but two debates involving the leader of the most popular party in the Netherlands, on the two days immediately preceding the election -- one with Rutte on 13 March, and another with Lodewijk Asscher, the new Labour Party leader, on 14 March.

One has to wonder if antagonising the mainstream media is going to be as successful a strategy for Wilders as it was for Trump.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on February 21, 2017, 04:57:46 PM
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/02/21/exclusive-usa-today-interview-with-dutch-anti-islam-politician-geert-wilders/98146112/

More English-language coverage of Wilders's campaign.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on February 24, 2017, 06:00:48 AM
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/23/anti-mass-migration-firebrand-wilders-suspends-election-campaigning-migrant-origin-police-officer-arrested-security-leaks/

One of Wilders's security guards (on whom he relies for 24/7 protection from numerous Islamist groups that want to murder him) has allegedly leaked information about his security arrangements. He is suspending his campaign pending an investigation, less than three weeks before the election.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on February 24, 2017, 10:11:19 AM
http://tpo.nl/column/vrijlating-wilders-beveiliger-faris-kattat-krenkt-rechtvaardigheidsgevoel-is-probleem/

An interesting column on the release of the suspected leaker. It uses a lot of peculiar words and unusual grammatical constructions, so that I had a hard time reading it and Google Translate is almost entirely useless, so I'm not even going to bother with a Google Translate link this time. If you can't read Dutch, too bad.

A couple of salient points:

Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on February 25, 2017, 06:35:14 AM
http://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nederland/politiek/twee-beveiligers-geert-wilders-in-2015-geschorst

Two more of Wilders's publicly-appointed guards have had criminal backgrounds revealed, having been suspended from duty in 2015 for embezzlement of funds. This is turning into a downright scandal for the incumbent administration, and a terrifying realisation for Wilders, who depends on these guards for his life.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on February 27, 2017, 10:47:45 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/27/world/europe/geert-wilders-reclusive-provocateur-rises-before-dutch-vote.html

More English-language coverage.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on February 28, 2017, 02:53:02 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06IN2MbdF_I

Wilders gives an interview with Ezra Levant from The Rebel Media, one of the few English speakers who can pronounce his name correctly.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 03, 2017, 04:25:08 AM
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-election-wilders-idUSKBN16854M

Wilders is campaigning again. Less than two weeks to go until the election. Now all he has to do is not get assassinated.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 04, 2017, 01:37:36 AM
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/774503/Nexit-more-than-half-Dutch-voters-follow-Brexit-leave-EU-Wilders-poll

New poll shows 56% of Dutch voters want to leave the EU. If they go ahead and vote on it, France is reasonably likely to follow later in the year. It's probably best that Europe says its farewells to Brussels now.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 06, 2017, 12:46:12 PM
http://www.geenstijl.nl/mt/archieven/2017/03/geert_wilders_glorieus_winnaar.html

The commercial breaks in that debate Wilders boycotted were full of PVV party advertisements talking shit about the participants in the debate. Geert is such a Trump.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 08, 2017, 03:27:56 PM
One week until the big day.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 09, 2017, 06:41:41 AM
https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?a=peil.nl&s=weekpoll&f=2017-03-07.pdf

VVD has taken a last-minute lead in the latest poll.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 10, 2017, 09:29:52 PM
http://gatesofvienna.net/2017/03/the-dutch-elections/

More English-language coverage, this one very scathing about the accuracy (or asserted lack thereof) of the polls.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Screamer on March 11, 2017, 10:17:08 PM
Google is often a better indicator of elections than polls.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=NL&q=%2Fm%2F0d2rq,%2Fm%2F0d2s4,%2Fm%2F05c1b5,%2Fm%2F0h9d1

It suggests there is the most interest in the VVD right now and Wilders will be beaten into a close second by incumbent Mark Rutte. Google got the last Dutch election right to within a percentage point or two, and the graphs have started to move again showing what people are googling for. Conformation bias suggests people are more interested in their favourite party and google to find out more about that ... will be a fascinating election whatever happens.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 11, 2017, 10:40:41 PM
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39242707

The Dutch government has had a little falling out with Turkey. PVV had been pressuring for this call to be made for a while, and I assume Rutte did it to avoid losing face just before an election.

It's produced a rather brash reaction from Turks living in the Netherlands:

https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/840659438281342976
https://twitter.com/ANanninga/status/840671660290248704

Hard to say what impact this will have on the election, if any. It does seem to validate Wilders's position, but at the same time, Rutte's decision may endear him to would-be PVV voters.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 14, 2017, 02:56:10 PM
Tomorrow is election day. Shit's about to get real.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Screamer on March 14, 2017, 08:28:30 PM
And Wilders has just overtaken Rutte in google searches in the Nerthlands. With 50% of the dutch unsure who to vote for, this is going to the wire as people scramble to find out more about the parties manifestos. Squeeeeeeee!
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=NL&q=%2Fm%2F05c1b5,%2Fm%2F0d2rq

Come on Wilders!
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 15, 2017, 02:30:38 PM
Polls will be closing soon. I have a celebratory beer waiting in the fridge for when Wilders claims victory.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Jura-Glenlivet on March 15, 2017, 09:18:05 PM

Good luck with that.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: trekky0623 on March 16, 2017, 12:04:27 AM
I was going to lose hope in all polls if this went the other way.

EDIT:

(http://i.imgur.com/VwitJScl.jpg)
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Jura-Glenlivet on March 16, 2017, 08:39:09 AM

Well-done the Dutch, finger in the dyke to stop the trickle of fear based, divisive, backward looking politics becoming a flood.

What was that beer by the way? Bitter?
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Ghost Spaghetti on March 16, 2017, 10:41:55 AM
Polls will be closing soon. I have a celebratory beer waiting in the fridge for when Wilders claims victory.

Well that was a waste of money. Good job you didn't buy champagne.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 16, 2017, 11:36:25 AM
Well-done the Dutch, finger in the dyke to stop the trickle of fear based, divisive, backward looking politics becoming a flood.

You realise the only reason Rutte won was that he shifted his policies to be more like Wilders, right?

What was that beer by the way? Bitter?

A rye imperial stout. I've had a few of them before. I'll be drinking it anyway because it's really fucking good.

Well that was a waste of money. Good job you didn't buy champagne.

I wouldn't rule out Wilders joining a ruling coalition with Rutte just yet. I know Rutte has said he won't enter a coalition with the PVV, but you know how politicians are with promises.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Ghost Spaghetti on March 16, 2017, 05:07:42 PM
I wouldn't rule out Wilders joining a ruling coalition with Rutte just yet. I know Rutte has said he won't enter a coalition with the PVV, but you know how politicians are with promises.
[/quote]

I haven't ruled it out, but it doesn't look like they need him, and being the Junior Partner in a coalition hardly seems like he "claimed victory"
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Jura-Glenlivet on March 16, 2017, 09:52:19 PM


You realise the only reason Rutte won was that he shifted his policies to be more like Wilders, right?

Wrong, or at least I mostly disagree. I'm no expert on Dutch politics so this is my speculation. He tacked to the wind of public opinion in a way the Tories in Britain failed to do, those who felt their fears about immigration weren't being listened to but were deeply suspicious of Wilders extreme views on Muslims were courted, especially by his dealings with the Turkish government. But don't forget Rutte lost 8 seats.
Where Wilders lost I believe, was a combination of the Dutch people rejecting the thought of them being another part of  the populist/Brexit/Trump bandwagon, and especially as the implementation of the closure of mosques and the banning of the Koran is overtly more fascist in its implications than many in a country with the Netherlands history would be comfortable. The massive turnout and surge in the greens vote, I think bears this out.


What was that beer by the way? Bitter?


A rye imperial stout. I've had a few of them before. I'll be drinking it anyway because it's really fucking good.
Sarcasm wasted there then.


Quote from: Parsifal
I wouldn't rule out Wilders joining a ruling coalition with Rutte just yet. I know Rutte has said he won't enter a coalition with the PVV, but you know how politicians are with promises.

I doubt/hope this won't happen. He doesn't need him, and it would fly in the face of the way the majority voted.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 17, 2017, 01:57:19 PM
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2017/03/media-spins-dutch-election-as-loss-for-wilders-who-is-actually-stronger-than-ever

I'll just leave this here.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: honk on March 17, 2017, 02:03:55 PM
I mean, he did lose the election. Not a huge stretch to call it a loss when it was, in fact, a loss.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: trekky0623 on March 17, 2017, 02:18:04 PM
"Spin."

I see Wilders has adopted Bernie math.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Pete Svarrior on March 17, 2017, 03:24:34 PM
"Spin."

I see Wilders has adopted Bernie math.
Here's how Geert can still win!!1!
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Blanko on March 17, 2017, 03:26:25 PM
To be fair, in proportional representation systems merely gaining a significant amount of seats is often considered a victory. That might not necessarily be the case for Geert since he was expected to gain more(?), but it's also not as simple as the US electoral system.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Jura-Glenlivet on March 17, 2017, 04:44:01 PM

Well 20 seats out of 150, when you predicted more than thirty, no chance of power as they think (rightly) he's dangerous and won't give him any power, but the hate-rag says it's victory, meh!
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Screamer on March 17, 2017, 08:21:00 PM
The Dutch are so wet.

5 socialist parties, a Christian party and a green party. All that weed as turned them into a bunch of hippies. Still, if they want to be Germany's lapdogs, that's up to them I suppose.  :-\
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 18, 2017, 03:43:48 AM
To be fair, in proportional representation systems merely gaining a significant amount of seats is often considered a victory. That might not necessarily be the case for Geert since he was expected to gain more(?), but it's also not as simple as the US electoral system.

He still gained more seats than he had previously, to the point that the PVV is now the second-largest party. Even if they are excluded from the government, they still can't be ignored when only the VVD has more seats.

I wouldn't exactly call this a victory, but it's far from being a loss.

Well 20 seats out of 150, when you predicted more than thirty

Largely, as I said, because Rutte shifted his policies to be more like Wilders. One such example of this (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Dutch%E2%80%93Turkish_diplomatic_incident) occurred just a few days before the election, and likely caused a surge of popularity for the VVD.

And no, polls were not predicting more than 30 seats for Wilders immediately prior to the election. That had happened earlier in the cycle.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Pete Svarrior on March 18, 2017, 09:01:45 AM
One such example of this (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Dutch%E2%80%93Turkish_diplomatic_incident) occurred just a few days before the election, and likely caused a surge of popularity for the VVD.
If you think so little of PVV's core electorate as to suggest that they'd confuse Rutte's actions with anything remotely similar to PVV... damn, you must have a really bad opinion of PVV voters.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 18, 2017, 10:25:23 AM
One such example of this (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Dutch%E2%80%93Turkish_diplomatic_incident) occurred just a few days before the election, and likely caused a surge of popularity for the VVD.
If you think so little of PVV's core electorate as to suggest that they'd confuse Rutte's actions with anything remotely similar to PVV... damn, you must have a really bad opinion of PVV voters.

Given that Wilders was campaigning to refuse entry to the Turkish representatives for weeks prior to Rutte refusing entry to the Turkish representatives, I'd say they could be forgiven for such an error.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Pete Svarrior on March 18, 2017, 10:39:50 AM
Given that Wilders was campaigning to refuse entry to the Turkish representatives for weeks prior to Rutte refusing entry to the Turkish representatives, I'd say they could be forgiven for such an error.
I guess, if they're completely blind to any reasoning behind the two potential actions. But, again, I think it would be downright disrespectful to assume they're so stupid.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 18, 2017, 10:45:36 AM
I guess, if they're completely blind to any reasoning behind the two potential actions. But, again, I think it would be downright disrespectful to assume they're so stupid.

I'm not sure why you think we're talking about the PVV's "core electorate", anyway. The only way it makes sense to consider the PVV voters who jumped ship for VVD as their "core electorate" is if all 13% of Dutch voters who voted for PVV were fence-sitters. I think you have things a little backwards.

Meanwhile, in related news, the newly re-elected Dutch government apologises to the Turks for using them to create a diplomatic incident to garner votes:

http://www.volkskrant.nl/politiek/aanhouding-turkse-diplomaten-mogelijk-toch-fout~a4475919/

That didn't take long.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Pete Svarrior on March 18, 2017, 11:26:05 AM
The only way it makes sense to consider the PVV voters who jumped ship for VVD as their "core electorate" is if all 13% of Dutch voters who voted for PVV were fence-sitters.
It's also possible that I was referring to a substantial part of the electorate rather than implying that literally everyone who supported PVV voted not-PVV, but I understand that you're working with a shortage of good arguments to support your side, so your resorting to shitposting is fair enough.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 18, 2017, 11:31:49 AM
It's also possible that I was referring to a substantial part of the electorate rather than implying that literally everyone who supported PVV voted not-PVV, but I understand that you're working with a shortage of good arguments to support your side, so your resorting to shitposting is fair enough.

Given that their number of seats has gone up by 5 since the last election, I don't think it's reasonable to suppose that any of their core electorate has deserted them at all. Rather, they've gained a lesser number of voters from other parties than they might otherwise have done.

Putting it in those terms makes it sound much more plausible that Rutte's actions may have saved himself some PVV-curious votes, don't you think?
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Pete Svarrior on March 18, 2017, 12:17:03 PM
Putting it in those terms makes it sound much more plausible that Rutte's actions may have saved himself some PVV-curious votes, don't you think?
Yes, which is why I'm opposing putting it in those terms. Misrepresenting what happened to make it sound like what you want it to be is not OK
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on March 18, 2017, 12:34:11 PM
Yes, which is why I'm opposing putting it in those terms. Misrepresenting what happened to make it sound like what you want it to be is not OK

Except that that is exactly what happened. They had 15 seats, and now they have 20. The voters who gained them those 5 extra seats must have voted for other parties in the last election (or not been of voting age, but that's improbable given that PVV is more popular among older demographics).
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Pete Svarrior on March 18, 2017, 02:40:04 PM
Except that that is exactly what happened. They had 15 seats, and now they have 20. The voters who gained them those 5 extra seats must have voted for other parties in the last election (or not been of voting age, but that's improbable given that PVV is more popular among older demographics).
Oh, we're changing subjects now? I guess that's an improvement.
Title: Re: 2017 Dutch general election
Post by: Parsifal on May 16, 2017, 06:03:51 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/05/16/geert-wilders-party-fully-available-as-conservatives-and-greens-fail-to-form-coalition-due-to-migrant-policy/

Turns out it's not over yet after all...