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Offline Dr David Thork

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #80 on: August 30, 2020, 05:02:27 PM »
This insight by the guy who frequently shits on polls as not worthwhile.
I've heard all this from the left before. One day you'll win an election, but I don't think it will be in 2020.
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Offline Dr Van Nostrand

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #81 on: August 30, 2020, 05:59:40 PM »
All these partisan warriors are missing the fact that Trump was a gigantic piece of shit long before he became president. Because the American public has the attention span of a house fly, they've forgotten all about Marla Maples, Trump Taj Mahal, Trump University and all the other bullshit that is his life. This has nothing to do with left or right media, his public life is decades of scandal and failure. But some stupid catch phrases and empty, impossible promises is all it takes for dumbass people whip out their credit cards to order now. This man destroyed his family's fortune, crashed a half dozen companies into the ground while saddling all those small contractors with the cost in bankruptcy filings. American finance institutions won't go near this guy but the ignorant public is buying his ghost-written books on business. His only real success money-wise was stamping his name on cheap imported crap and selling it to dumb rednecks. Then he shot himself in the dick with his "MAGA! Made in America" routine, and destroyed that business too.

But, this is where the Democrats will lose. Their trying to use logic and truth on a public that believes the garbage they read in the National Enquirer. If the Democrats, "Go high when they go low," they're going to get kicked in the nuts again.

I'm a politically conservative Libertarian independent who owns guns and has a concealed carry permit. But because I'm not stupid and I don't eat his shit, he calls me a liberal globalist who hates America and wants to take your guns. Fuck him.

He's using the conservative movement, the Republicans, the Evangelicals to further his agenda just like he was using Hillary Clinton and the Democrats a few years ago when they suited him.
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Offline Roundy

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #82 on: August 30, 2020, 06:31:29 PM »
Thork lives in a fantasy world. No incumbent President with a favorability rating under 48% has ever won reelection. Trump's has never gone above 42. Biden is still kicking his ass in the polls. There's simply no logical reason to think Trump has a better shot at winning right now.
Biden is only leading by 6 percentage points? Biden is toast.
https://time.com/4546942/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-lead-poll/

1) The US media is almost all left wing.
2) They know that many left-wing Americans are narcissistic babies and will only vote if they think they will win. Seems so many Americans hate losing that they won't vote for a candidate that will likely lose. The left are always told that they will win.
3) Conservative voters are much less likely to tell posters their voting intentions as left wingers tend to get violent.
4) Many young people (who are much more likely to vote left) tend to be very vocal about their voting intentions and then don't bother their arses to vote on the day. Same with the hispanic vote. 

It's weird that right-wingers in other countries would be in denial about the state of the election right now, but apparently even they can be delusional about where this is headed.

But I do love him for being there to help sow the seeds of fear. Thanks for the effort, Thork, it can only help.
Every election in the last 5 years that predicted a left wing vote massively over inflated their chances.

Trump 2016
Brexit
UK Conservative whitewash 2019

You guys won't learn.

Quote from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor
The shy Tory factor is a name given by British opinion polling companies to a phenomenon first observed by psephologists in the early 1990s. They observed that the share of the electoral vote won by the Conservative Party (known colloquially as the "Tories") was significantly higher than the equivalent share in opinion polls.[1] The accepted explanation was that so-called "shy Tories" were voting Conservative after telling pollsters they would not. The general elections held in 1992 and 2015 are examples where it has dramatically affected the overall result, but has also been discussed in other elections where the Conservatives did unexpectedly well. It has also been applied to the success of the Republican Party in the United States.

+6% means you guys will get wrecked in the final reckoning.

Yes, yes. Keep sowing that fear! Democrats not showing up to vote is exactly what I'm afraid of in this election, and the Right's constant assurances that Trump will win despite what the polls say is the ideal antidote. Thanks again for your contribution to the cause!
« Last Edit: August 30, 2020, 07:38:19 PM by Roundy »
Dr. Frank is a physicist. He says it's impossible. So it's impossible.
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Offline Dr David Thork

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #83 on: August 30, 2020, 06:40:17 PM »
Many years ago Trump owned an airline called Trump Shuttle. Here is what one of his former employees (pilot) had to say about him.

Quote from: ex-Trump employee
It really wasn't a failure. I think it was pretty successful. I mean, Trump saved our careers, I mean, absolutely. They really took care of their employees. My wife, who had breast cancer, the CEO of the company, he said, "Hey, any bills that aren't covered, just leave it on my desk."

I left some bills on those desks. It was like, I don't know, a $30,000 pharmacy bill. You know, that's how I was treated, and so I'm sure that came down from Trump. I don't have anything bad to say.

Today, the US Air Shuttle is known as the American Airlines Shuttle. It serves New York, Boston, Washington, and Chicago.

Could you imagine Biden doing that in your wildest dreams?
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Offline Dr Van Nostrand

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #84 on: August 30, 2020, 06:47:02 PM »
Many years ago Trump owned an airline called Trump Shuttle. Here is what one of his former employees (pilot) had to say about him.

Quote from: ex-Trump employee
It really wasn't a failure. I think it was pretty successful. I mean, Trump saved our careers, I mean, absolutely. They really took care of their employees. My wife, who had breast cancer, the CEO of the company, he said, "Hey, any bills that aren't covered, just leave it on my desk."

I left some bills on those desks. It was like, I don't know, a $30,000 pharmacy bill. You know, that's how I was treated, and so I'm sure that came down from Trump. I don't have anything bad to say.

Today, the US Air Shuttle is known as the American Airlines Shuttle. It serves New York, Boston, Washington, and Chicago.


You're quoting Trump generated mythology and believing it.

Trump fired 100 employees. Just 18 months after the Trump Shuttle launch, the airline had already lost $128 million. In 1992, Donald Trump decided it was time to bail. Trump Shuttle's majority stakeholder, Citigroup, started negotiating a sale with US Air, who still saw value in the product. Donald Trump claimed he didn't lose money on the shuttle. He told the Boston Globe, "I'm smart. I got out at a good time."

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #85 on: August 31, 2020, 04:06:02 AM »
Many years ago Trump owned an airline called Trump Shuttle. Here is what one of his former employees (pilot) had to say about him.

Quote from: ex-Trump employee
It really wasn't a failure. I think it was pretty successful. I mean, Trump saved our careers, I mean, absolutely. They really took care of their employees. My wife, who had breast cancer, the CEO of the company, he said, "Hey, any bills that aren't covered, just leave it on my desk."

I left some bills on those desks. It was like, I don't know, a $30,000 pharmacy bill. You know, that's how I was treated, and so I'm sure that came down from Trump. I don't have anything bad to say.

Today, the US Air Shuttle is known as the American Airlines Shuttle. It serves New York, Boston, Washington, and Chicago.

Could you imagine Biden doing that in your wildest dreams?

So you're saying that Trump personally knew that one guy who worked for a company he owned but didn't manage and told the ceo to cover medical bills not covered by their crappy insurance?

No.  Its far more likely that the CEO did it themselves, hiding the bills in the company's finances.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Offline Dr David Thork

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #86 on: August 31, 2020, 06:05:49 AM »
No.  Its far more likely that the CEO did it themselves, hiding the bills in the company's finances.


Quote from: ex-Trump employee
and so I'm sure that came down from Trump.
Sure. Clearly you with your TDS having not been there, have a better idea than the guy it actually happened to.  ::)
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Offline Pete Svarrior

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #87 on: August 31, 2020, 07:55:57 AM »
And then everybody clapped.
Read the FAQ before asking your question - chances are we already addressed it.
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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #88 on: August 31, 2020, 09:23:27 AM »
No.  Its far more likely that the CEO did it themselves, hiding the bills in the company's finances.


Quote from: ex-Trump employee
and so I'm sure that came down from Trump.
Sure. Clearly you with your TDS having not been there, have a better idea than the guy it actually happened to.  ::)

Does that sound like Trump?  Doing expensive, good deeds without recognition?
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Offline Roundy

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #89 on: August 31, 2020, 05:00:55 PM »
No.  Its far more likely that the CEO did it themselves, hiding the bills in the company's finances.


Quote from: ex-Trump employee
and so I'm sure that came down from Trump.
Sure. Clearly you with your TDS having not been there, have a better idea than the guy it actually happened to.  ::)

The guy makes it clear in your quote that he's assuming the money came down from Trump. He states that it was the CEO who actually made the offer. But I guess you know better than the guy it actually happened to who didn't know himself.  ::)
Dr. Frank is a physicist. He says it's impossible. So it's impossible.
My friends, please remember Tom said this the next time you fall into the trap of engaging him, and thank you. :)

Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #90 on: August 31, 2020, 05:30:14 PM »
Sooo....back to the OP of this thread -


Now that the RNC and DNC conventions are over, what are the best guesses?  Who is REALLY going to win?  Biden is up by around 6% right?  But hasn't that gap been narrowing for a while now?  It's still two whole months away.  Is Biden a sure thing, or does Trump have a good chance?

Thoughts?

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Offline Tumeni

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #91 on: August 31, 2020, 06:18:34 PM »
Trump's premise from the convention is largely;

"Look at all the riots that are happening under my Presidency, right now. This is what you'll get if you elect Biden. Vote for four more years of me"

The sub-text to that is "... so that... we don't get more of the same. Even though this is what's happening 3.5 years after I took office"
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Offline TomInAustin

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #92 on: August 31, 2020, 06:24:24 PM »
Sooo....back to the OP of this thread -


Now that the RNC and DNC conventions are over, what are the best guesses?  Who is REALLY going to win?  Biden is up by around 6% right?  But hasn't that gap been narrowing for a while now?  It's still two whole months away.  Is Biden a sure thing, or does Trump have a good chance?

Thoughts?

One thing the polls do not show is the huge numbers of life long Republicans that will hold their noses and vote for Trump.   Too lazy to look it up but a recent poll showed that a large number of people are not honest with pollsters.  Many people are afraid of repercussions if they announce for Trump.
Do you have a citation for this sweeping generalisation?

Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #93 on: August 31, 2020, 06:25:23 PM »
Trump's premise from the convention is largely;

"Look at all the riots that are happening under my Presidency, right now. This is what you'll get if you elect Biden. Vote for four more years of me"

The sub-text to that is "... so that... we don't get more of the same. Even though this is what's happening 3.5 years after I took office"

That is an interesting point.  Given that Trump has utterly failed to influence any real police reform (qualified immunity, training, all sorts of potential measures), it's kind of laughable that he would blame Biden for these riots.  Hilarious in fact. 

I can't say I've seen some realistic plan from Biden on how to address and stop the riots, though, either.

But the larger point of discussion would then be - are the riots going to help Trump (because law and order) or help Biden (because police brutality) ?  I can kind of seeing it go either way.


Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #94 on: August 31, 2020, 06:28:44 PM »
Sooo....back to the OP of this thread -


Now that the RNC and DNC conventions are over, what are the best guesses?  Who is REALLY going to win?  Biden is up by around 6% right?  But hasn't that gap been narrowing for a while now?  It's still two whole months away.  Is Biden a sure thing, or does Trump have a good chance?

Thoughts?

One thing the polls do not show is the huge numbers of life long Republicans that will hold their noses and vote for Trump.   Too lazy to look it up but a recent poll showed that a large number of people are not honest with pollsters.  Many people are afraid of repercussions if they announce for Trump.

Yeah, that could be.   So, let's say that phenomenon has a 5% impact in favor of Trump, such that he's 1% below Biden (which is the same as saying they are exactly equal, given polling norms of errors), this means it could go either way and we have no idea.

So, before Nov. 2, 2016 Hillary was pretty close to certain to win. But now, Biden merely has an equal chance?  This is strangely turning out to be a fascinating race. 

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Offline Tumeni

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #95 on: August 31, 2020, 06:44:24 PM »
I can't say I've seen some realistic plan from Biden on how to address and stop the riots, though, either.

Given that the protests are against police brutality, and Trump wants to meet this with more brutality, I would dismiss his plan as unrealistic. If pushed to the extreme, this could bring the country to civil war again.

Unaware of it being explicitly stated, but police reform and reduction in police brutality/ethnic bias would seem to be Biden's best option.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2020, 06:47:13 PM by Tumeni »
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Offline TomInAustin

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #96 on: August 31, 2020, 07:10:19 PM »
I can't say I've seen some realistic plan from Biden on how to address and stop the riots, though, either.

Given that the protests are against police brutality, and Trump wants to meet this with more brutality, I would dismiss his plan as unrealistic. If pushed to the extreme, this could bring the country to civil war again.

Unaware of it being explicitly stated, but police reform and reduction in police brutality/ethnic bias would seem to be Biden's best option.

Biden waited too long to denounce the violence and that scares the crap out of half the country.   

It still boils down to this for me...  Are these really the best two we could come up with.  I said the same in 16 but this makes that look like a picnic. 

Being an old fart, I have observed American politics for decades and I am blown away by the hatred each side has for the other.  I think civil war is a very real possibility no matter who wins.  The other side is going to scream cheaters!   Being very middle of the road and libertarian (not the party, the concepts) puts me in a weird place.  It's like going to prison, you have to pick a side.  Both sides are very poor choices.

Do you have a citation for this sweeping generalisation?

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #97 on: August 31, 2020, 07:14:27 PM »
I can't say I've seen some realistic plan from Biden on how to address and stop the riots, though, either.

Given that the protests are against police brutality, and Trump wants to meet this with more brutality, I would dismiss his plan as unrealistic. If pushed to the extreme, this could bring the country to civil war again.

Unaware of it being explicitly stated, but police reform and reduction in police brutality/ethnic bias would seem to be Biden's best option.

Biden waited too long to denounce the violence and that scares the crap out of half the country.   

It still boils down to this for me...  Are these really the best two we could come up with.  I said the same in 16 but this makes that look like a picnic. 

Being an old fart, I have observed American politics for decades and I am blown away by the hatred each side has for the other.  I think civil war is a very real possibility no matter who wins.  The other side is going to scream cheaters!   Being very middle of the road and libertarian (not the party, the concepts) puts me in a weird place.  It's like going to prison, you have to pick a side.  Both sides are very poor choices.

Of course.  Its because both sides do anything they can to stop a 3rd party from forming with any real power.  The Tea Party has promise but they got sucked into the Republicans.

And as for the best they could come up with: Well, the people spoke.  And people are dumb.  They choose name recognition or "best chance to win" over actual policies and skill.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Offline TomInAustin

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #98 on: August 31, 2020, 07:24:46 PM »

Biden waited too long to denounce the violence and that scares the crap out of half the country.   

It still boils down to this for me...  Are these really the best two we could come up with.  I said the same in 16 but this makes that look like a picnic. 

Being an old fart, I have observed American politics for decades and I am blown away by the hatred each side has for the other.  I think civil war is a very real possibility no matter who wins.  The other side is going to scream cheaters!   Being very middle of the road and libertarian (not the party, the concepts) puts me in a weird place.  It's like going to prison, you have to pick a side.  Both sides are very poor choices.

Of course.  Its because both sides do anything they can to stop a 3rd party from forming with any real power.  The Tea Party has promise but they got sucked into the Republicans.

And as for the best they could come up with: Well, the people spoke.  And people are dumb.  They choose name recognition or "best chance to win" over actual policies and skill.

Agree and a real 3rd party is our only hope.  With warlords like Mccain and Schumer and entrenched Nancy Pelosi and Mitch Mcconnell types only carrying about the party and personal power and wealth we will never get anywhere.
Do you have a citation for this sweeping generalisation?

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Offline JSS

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Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« Reply #99 on: August 31, 2020, 07:35:43 PM »

Biden waited too long to denounce the violence and that scares the crap out of half the country.   

It still boils down to this for me...  Are these really the best two we could come up with.  I said the same in 16 but this makes that look like a picnic. 

Being an old fart, I have observed American politics for decades and I am blown away by the hatred each side has for the other.  I think civil war is a very real possibility no matter who wins.  The other side is going to scream cheaters!   Being very middle of the road and libertarian (not the party, the concepts) puts me in a weird place.  It's like going to prison, you have to pick a side.  Both sides are very poor choices.

Of course.  Its because both sides do anything they can to stop a 3rd party from forming with any real power.  The Tea Party has promise but they got sucked into the Republicans.

And as for the best they could come up with: Well, the people spoke.  And people are dumb.  They choose name recognition or "best chance to win" over actual policies and skill.

Agree and a real 3rd party is our only hope.  With warlords like Mccain and Schumer and entrenched Nancy Pelosi and Mitch Mcconnell types only carrying about the party and personal power and wealth we will never get anywhere.

California has ranked choice voting.  I loved voting there.  I could vote my conscience AND not throw away my vote.  Superb.

Until the whole US adopts it or something similar we're going to be stuck with two parties.