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Other Discussion Boards => Philosophy, Religion & Society => Topic started by: Rushy on February 11, 2023, 10:56:17 PM

Title: Balloon Madness
Post by: Rushy on February 11, 2023, 10:56:17 PM
Apparently North America is being attacked by even more big floating objects of unknown type. At this rate, our entire sky will be 100% balloons by the end of the year. Terrifying!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64614098
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Action80 on February 11, 2023, 11:21:35 PM
Can't keep those satellites aloft forever, you know.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: crutonius on February 12, 2023, 06:31:33 AM
Don't worry.  Our nation's youth is trained to handle such things.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pj1kpmrrJuU
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Rushy on February 12, 2023, 10:18:22 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64620064

Please help us, the balloons, they're everywhere, this may be my last message. And don't look at them. For God's sakes, do not look at the balloons!
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Lord Dave on February 12, 2023, 11:15:17 PM
Its weird.

I wonder... are Repubicans happy that Biden is now just blasting them out of the air without any plan or good hope of recovering the debris to learn what it is?  Because that's what they wanted on the first one that wasn't shot down immediately.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Roundy on February 12, 2023, 11:39:24 PM
Its weird.

I wonder... are Repubicans happy that Biden is now just blasting them out of the air without any plan or good hope of recovering the debris to learn what it is?  Because that's what they wanted on the first one that wasn't shot down immediately.

Republicans are only happy with the opposite of anything Biden does. If Biden were to change his mind about something, they would too.

Of course, anything Biden does is wrong, except when a fellow Republican does it. Finding classified documents at one of Biden's property is evidence of major impropriety that demands immediate investigation into everything connected to Biden, including of course his heinous son Hunter  >o<. Finding classified documents at one of Pence's properties, of course, is no big deal, it was just a mistake and he did nothing wrong.

But I suppose that's another issue. The bottom line is that anything Biden does is a grave threat to American society, anything they do can only save American society, even if it's the same thing.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: markjo on February 13, 2023, 12:18:24 AM
Another one shot down over Lake Huron.  Sheesh!
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-officials-believe-flying-objects-over-alaska-canada-were-balloons-schumer-2023-02-12/
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Pete Svarrior on February 13, 2023, 09:23:50 AM
Well, look at the bright sides - we will not have to worry about RE'ers claiming that stratellites don't exist for the foreseeable future.

Or, well, the usual suspects will still do it, but hey-ho.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: AATW on February 13, 2023, 10:52:47 AM
Well, look at the bright sides - we will not have to worry about RE'ers claiming that stratellites don't exist for the foreseeable future.

Or, well, the usual suspects will still do it, but hey-ho.
Have any REers claimed that?
But it’s certainly not balloons making GPS or Satellite TV work. And the ISS isn’t a fun size and shaped balloon either.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: crutonius on February 13, 2023, 12:12:50 PM
Well, look at the bright sides - we will not have to worry about RE'ers claiming that stratellites don't exist for the foreseeable future.

Or, well, the usual suspects will still do it, but hey-ho.

Well, they don't exist now.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Pete Svarrior on February 13, 2023, 02:26:05 PM
Have any REers claimed that?
It used to be a pretty regular occurrence, yeah.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Rushy on February 13, 2023, 02:59:32 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64621598

China claims the US harasses its airspace with balloons as well.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64620064

Really annoying that they're being so vague about what they shot down. Conspiracy theories are abound, from the more tame "they're too embarrassed to admit they shot down weather balloons with expensive missiles" to the more extreme "it's aliens!".

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2023/2/13/8c9d3bbb-9c9a-4d4a-b42a-9c71ffd5eade.png)
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: rooster on February 13, 2023, 04:55:32 PM
Conspiracy theories are abound, from the more tame "they're too embarrassed to admit they shot down weather balloons with expensive missiles" to the more extreme "it's aliens!".
Okay, but it is aliens.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: stack on February 13, 2023, 04:57:29 PM
It is kind of strange. Apparently we used AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles to shoot down the balloons...at a per unit cost of US$381,069.74. The payload on the first one was the size of a bus if the reporting is correct. Perhaps worthy of a $400k missile. Not sure about the others. F-22's have a 20mm Gatling gun. I would think you could just plink-plink a balloon with a few rounds at a fraction of the cost. Guess not.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: rooster on February 13, 2023, 05:14:59 PM
It is kind of strange. Apparently we used AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles to shoot down the balloons...at a per unit cost of US$381,069.74. The payload on the first one was the size of a bus if the reporting is correct. Perhaps worthy of a $400k missile. Not sure about the others. F-22's have a 20mm Gatling gun. I would think you could just plink-plink a balloon with a few rounds at a fraction of the cost. Guess not.
We don't know that the others were balloons. Like Rushy said, they're being vague about it.

Descriptions of objects:
First object - Balloon over Montana

Second - "The object was very different to the balloon, the size of a Volkswagen Beetle, and was flying at 40,000 feet without any obvious system of propulsion or control, officials said."

Third - "Officials described the object as smaller than the first balloon and cylindrical. It was also flying at about 40,000 feet when it was shot down."

Fourth - "That object was an octagonal structure with strings hanging off it, but with no evident payload."

But then we have - "On Sunday, the US Senate majority leader, Charles Schumer, who was briefed by the Biden administration before the Lake Huron incident, said the second and third objects were very likely small balloons."

So who the fuck knows. But it's aliens.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/13/what-do-we-know-about-the-four-flying-objects-shot-down-by-the-us
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Rushy on February 13, 2023, 05:34:46 PM
Okay, but it is aliens.

In that case we should all be very thankful that aliens are easily dispatched by cold war era anti-aircraft missiles and medium anti-armor munitions. Imagine having an interstellar spacecraft capable of physics-defying maneuvers and FTL travel but you get sprayed by the 20mm fixed guns of a F-22 and your ship explodes.

It is kind of strange. Apparently we used AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles to shoot down the balloons...at a per unit cost of US$381,069.74. The payload on the first one was the size of a bus if the reporting is correct. Perhaps worthy of a $400k missile. Not sure about the others. F-22's have a 20mm Gatling gun. I would think you could just plink-plink a balloon with a few rounds at a fraction of the cost. Guess not.

If you look at war economically the numbers will always look silly, but would you rather shoot down a $50 balloon staring at your missile silos or let the enemy get very valuable intel? It's hard to put a price tag on knowing precisely what occurs around your enemy's military bases.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Lord Dave on February 13, 2023, 05:58:57 PM
It is kind of strange. Apparently we used AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles to shoot down the balloons...at a per unit cost of US$381,069.74. The payload on the first one was the size of a bus if the reporting is correct. Perhaps worthy of a $400k missile. Not sure about the others. F-22's have a 20mm Gatling gun. I would think you could just plink-plink a balloon with a few rounds at a fraction of the cost. Guess not.

Apparently not indeed.

https://www.techarp.com/military/us-chinese-spy-balloon-missile/?amp=1

Quote

Fact #4 : Missile Was Necessary To Shoot Down Balloon

In the end, the F-22 Raptor with the callsign FRANK01 attained an altitude of 58,000 feet (17.7 km) before firing an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile at the balloon. It was the first air-to-air combat kill for the F-22.

While Chinese netizens mocked the use of such an expensive missile, the AIM-9X Sidewinder is the smallest and cheapest air-to-air missile in the USAF arsenal.

It would be impossible for the F-22 Raptor pilot to use its 20 mm M61A2 Vulcan rotary cannon to shoot down the balloon, which is still 7,000 feet (2.1 km) above it!

In case you are wondering – the M61A2 Vulcan has an effective range of only 2,000 feet (600 metres). So a missile was necessary to bring down the Chinese spy balloon, and the AIM-9X was the right tool for the job.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: DuncanDoenitz on February 13, 2023, 06:10:08 PM
Have any REers claimed that?
It used to be a pretty regular occurrence, yeah.
And you obviously have a link to those claims; its ok, we don't need to see it. 

Balloons are a thing.  Satellites are a thing.  F-22s are a thing.  They're not mutually exclusive. 
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: crutonius on February 13, 2023, 06:54:26 PM
I'm just speculating here, I think the intel recovered from the first balloon led the way to detecting other surveillance objects and whatever they're using to detect these objects is something the Chinese can modify through a data connection.  So we're trying to not give away what we know and taking down what we can while China is trying to adapt.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Алёна on February 13, 2023, 07:25:22 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64621598

China claims the US harasses its airspace with balloons as well.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64620064

Really annoying that they're being so vague about what they shot down. Conspiracy theories are abound, from the more tame "they're too embarrassed to admit they shot down weather balloons with expensive missiles" to the more extreme "it's aliens!".

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2023/2/13/8c9d3bbb-9c9a-4d4a-b42a-9c71ffd5eade.png)

So I watched a video of a debriefing at the Pentagon or some shit and they claimed that a UFO triangle was floating in the Us around the area.
Also, they released images of Unknown objects floating in the sky.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Pete Svarrior on February 13, 2023, 07:49:46 PM
And you obviously have a link to those claims; its ok, we don't need to see it. 
Indeed, you (singular) don't. If you needed to see it, you wouldn't be hyperfixating on my joke post; you'd simply use the search feature on either of the two fora.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: stack on February 13, 2023, 07:58:37 PM
It is kind of strange. Apparently we used AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles to shoot down the balloons...at a per unit cost of US$381,069.74. The payload on the first one was the size of a bus if the reporting is correct. Perhaps worthy of a $400k missile. Not sure about the others. F-22's have a 20mm Gatling gun. I would think you could just plink-plink a balloon with a few rounds at a fraction of the cost. Guess not.

If you look at war economically the numbers will always look silly, but would you rather shoot down a $50 balloon staring at your missile silos or let the enemy get very valuable intel? It's hard to put a price tag on knowing precisely what occurs around your enemy's military bases.

I kinda think it's more about, "Hey! You can't violate our airspace with your looners!" I mean, doesn't everyone these days have satellite images and such of everyone's missile bases/silos? It all seems hardly "hidden".

A quick google search:

(https://s3.amazonaws.com/uploads.fas.org/2021/07/China_Hami-silos.jpg)
(https://www.nps.gov/mimi/learn/historyculture/images/Minuteman-Missile-Fields-in-the-United-States-small.jpg?maxwidth=1200&maxheight=1200&autorotate=false)

To Find America's Nuclear Missiles, Try Google Maps (https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/07/31/336847318/to-find-america-s-nukes-try-google-maps)
(https://i.imgur.com/yZaGeXf.png)
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Lord Dave on February 13, 2023, 08:17:05 PM
It is kind of strange. Apparently we used AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles to shoot down the balloons...at a per unit cost of US$381,069.74. The payload on the first one was the size of a bus if the reporting is correct. Perhaps worthy of a $400k missile. Not sure about the others. F-22's have a 20mm Gatling gun. I would think you could just plink-plink a balloon with a few rounds at a fraction of the cost. Guess not.

If you look at war economically the numbers will always look silly, but would you rather shoot down a $50 balloon staring at your missile silos or let the enemy get very valuable intel? It's hard to put a price tag on knowing precisely what occurs around your enemy's military bases.

I kinda think it's more about, "Hey! You can't violate our airspace with your looners!" I mean, doesn't everyone these days have satellite images and such of everyone's missile bases/silos? It all seems hardly "hidden".

A quick google search:

(https://s3.amazonaws.com/uploads.fas.org/2021/07/China_Hami-silos.jpg)
(https://www.nps.gov/mimi/learn/historyculture/images/Minuteman-Missile-Fields-in-the-United-States-small.jpg?maxwidth=1200&maxheight=1200&autorotate=false)

To Find America's Nuclear Missiles, Try Google Maps (https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/07/31/336847318/to-find-america-s-nukes-try-google-maps)
(https://i.imgur.com/yZaGeXf.png)

Yes and no.
The resolution of orbital imaging satelites is not great.  We're talking zoomed out google maps, not great.
That's why, when Trump tweetet that picture of the Iranian rocket launch pad, it was a big deal.  It showed that US spy sattelites had insanely good resolution.  Enough to read letters on the side of the rocket launch pad. 

I suspect the chineese do not possess that kind of resolution so they can't see things like guard patrols, equipment movement, etc...
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: stack on February 13, 2023, 09:41:34 PM
I guess I'm assuming all the super powers have the satellite super power resolution we have. Balloons just seem so quaint and 1800's even at 50-60k feet. Especially with all the hysteria around UAP's, mystery super sophisticated tech and such.

But maybe sometimes spycraft requires unexpected old-school methods.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Lord Dave on February 13, 2023, 09:56:54 PM
I guess I'm assuming all the super powers have the satellite super power resolution we have. Balloons just seem so quaint and 1800's even at 50-60k feet. Especially with all the hysteria around UAP's, mystery super sophisticated tech and such.

But maybe sometimes spycraft requires unexpected old-school methods.

Think of it this way.

1. All sattelites are tracked.  ALL of them.  Everything from like a few mm in size that's around the Earth is tracked to avoid collisions.  So spy sattelites are hard to hide.
2. The balloon was higher than any plane we have.  So it had a chance of being in that area of "Too high to hit, not high enough to be tracked".
3. They flew 3 of them across America during Trump's time undetected. 
4. They're slow but low powered and low tech so if they're captured, not a whole lot is learned.  A
5. And you can claim its a weather balloon.  Which would make shooting it down an act of aggression, legally.

Honestly its pretty ingenius.  PLUS they get realtime reaction times and tracking range of the US border.  Essentially seeing how far they can get into US territory before a response. Which is super helpful in a war.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: stack on February 14, 2023, 01:35:37 AM
That's what I'm thinking too. Cheap, inconspicuous. Culpable deniability. Pretty smart actually. And here we are with things in the past like the billion dollar SR-71 blazing over China, 70k feet high at mach gazillion with humans onboard and in 2023 China has a happy, fun bobbing innocent weather balloon probably capturing just as much data
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Action80 on February 14, 2023, 04:48:47 AM
3. They flew 3 of them across America during Trump's time undetected. 
Begs the question, if they were undetected, how could anyone possibly know?
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: stack on February 14, 2023, 05:25:15 AM
3. They flew 3 of them across America during Trump's time undetected. 
Begs the question, if they were undetected, how could anyone possibly know?

"A senior Pentagon official told reporters last week that Chinese government surveillance balloons hovered over the continental U.S. “at least three times” during the Trump administration, and one additional time at the beginning of the Biden administration."

Supposedly, for unknown reasons, the pentagon did not inform the Trump whitehouse nor the Biden whitehouse. Who knows why.

Then there's this to muddy the waters even further...

"The transiting of three suspected Chinese spy balloons over the continental US during the Trump administration was only discovered after President Joe Biden took office, a senior administration official told CNN on Sunday.

The official did not say how or when those incidents were discovered.
"

And this...

WASHINGTON — The top military commander overseeing North American airspace said Monday that some previous incursions by Chinese spy balloons during the Trump administration were not detected in real time, and the Pentagon learned of them only later.

“I will tell you that we did not detect those threats, and that’s a domain awareness gap,” said Gen. Glen D. VanHerck, the commander of the Pentagon’s Northern Command.

One explanation, multiple U.S. officials said, is that some previous incursions were initially classified as “unidentified aerial phenomena,” Pentagon speak for U.F.O.s. As the Pentagon and intelligence agencies stepped up efforts over the past two years to find explanations for many of those incidents, officials reclassified some events as Chinese spy balloons.

It is not clear when the Pentagon determined the incidents involved Chinese spying. When the determination was made, officials kept the information secret to avoid letting China know their surveillance efforts were uncovered, the officials said.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Lord Dave on February 14, 2023, 06:44:20 AM
3. They flew 3 of them across America during Trump's time undetected. 
Begs the question, if they were undetected, how could anyone possibly know?

I heard reports that they learned of them from spies inside China.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Action80 on February 14, 2023, 09:05:33 AM
3. They flew 3 of them across America during Trump's time undetected. 
Begs the question, if they were undetected, how could anyone possibly know?

"A senior Pentagon official told reporters last week that Chinese government surveillance balloons hovered over the continental U.S. “at least three times” during the Trump administration, and one additional time at the beginning of the Biden administration."
Wow, it makes you wonder...Wouldn't everyone have had a field day "trumpeting" (pun intended) this juicy tidbit while he was in office?

Again, if they were "undetected," how do you come about the news three years later?

ETA: I see dave writes this:

Quote
I heard reports that they learned of them from spies inside China.

How or why would anyone trust any spy?

Quote
Supposedly, for unknown reasons, the pentagon did not inform the Trump whitehouse nor the Biden whitehouse. Who knows why.

Then there's this to muddy the waters even further...

"The transiting of three suspected Chinese spy balloons over the continental US during the Trump administration was only discovered after President Joe Biden took office, a senior administration official told CNN on Sunday.

The official did not say how or when those incidents were discovered.
"

And this...

WASHINGTON — The top military commander overseeing North American airspace said Monday that some previous incursions by Chinese spy balloons during the Trump administration were not detected in real time, and the Pentagon learned of them only later.

“I will tell you that we did not detect those threats, and that’s a domain awareness gap,” said Gen. Glen D. VanHerck, the commander of the Pentagon’s Northern Command.

One explanation, multiple U.S. officials said, is that some previous incursions were initially classified as “unidentified aerial phenomena,” Pentagon speak for U.F.O.s. As the Pentagon and intelligence agencies stepped up efforts over the past two years to find explanations for many of those incidents, officials reclassified some events as Chinese spy balloons.

It is not clear when the Pentagon determined the incidents involved Chinese spying. When the determination was made, officials kept the information secret to avoid letting China know their surveillance efforts were uncovered, the officials said.

I think the whole story is pure hoakum.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: stack on February 14, 2023, 10:36:34 AM
It does seem bizarre that somehow the Pentagon retroactively said there were others from forever ago. Even one from earlier in this administration. And they are all cagey about what exactly all these balloons were carrying. And now we seem to be missiling a new one everyday. Looners are attacking us! Next it will be the furries...
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Rushy on February 14, 2023, 02:13:47 PM
I kinda think it's more about, "Hey! You can't violate our airspace with your looners!" I mean, doesn't everyone these days have satellite images and such of everyone's missile bases/silos? It all seems hardly "hidden".

A quick google search:


There's a lot more to intelligence gathering than taking pictures of an area...
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Action80 on February 14, 2023, 04:41:34 PM
I kinda think it's more about, "Hey! You can't violate our airspace with your looners!" I mean, doesn't everyone these days have satellite images and such of everyone's missile bases/silos? It all seems hardly "hidden".

A quick google search:


There's a lot more to intelligence gathering than taking pictures of an area...
Granted, but what kind of intelligent beings can conduct more intelligence operations if they are not intelligent enough to detect slow-moving, unwanted objects across their airspace; further, after once having identified the objects, take over a week to remove it?

Further, what possible intelligent gathering other than taking pictures would a moving overhead object be capable of?

Given the reported altitude of these objects, it is doubtful they are stingrays or dirtboxes.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Rushy on February 14, 2023, 06:27:19 PM
Granted, but what kind of intelligent beings can conduct more intelligence operations if they not intelligent enough to detect slow moving, unwanted objects across their airspace; further, once having identified the objects, take over a week to remove it?

Did you have a stroke while writing this or something?

Further, what possible intelligent gathering other than taking pictures would a moving overhead object be capable of?

Use your imagination. I'd rather not spoon-feed people on this topic for a variety of reasons, but I can say there's a lot more than pictures.

Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Action80 on February 14, 2023, 07:24:09 PM
Granted, but what kind of intelligent beings can conduct more intelligence operations if they are not intelligent enough to detect slow-moving, unwanted objects across their airspace; further, after once having identified the objects, take over a week to remove it?

Did you have a stroke while writing this or something?
Not at all.

Further, what possible intelligent gathering other than taking pictures would a moving overhead object be capable of?

Use your imagination. I'd rather not spoon-feed people on this topic for a variety of reasons, but I can say there's a lot more than pictures.
I did. I listed a couple.

You listed none.

So far, you just made a claim there is more to intelligence gathering than taking pictures. They actually called the first one a "spy balloon."

This begs the question as to the purpose of the overhead objects or if there ever was any.

Try a fork instead of a spoon perhaps.
 
Question is, can those two I presented be conducted from 50-60k ft? They typically are not.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: DuncanDoenitz on February 14, 2023, 08:25:03 PM
USAF, RAF and others are making daily flights by E-8 JOINT-STARS, RC-135 Rivet-Joint, etc, along the Moldavia, Ukraine and Belarus borders, in order to conduct SIGINT and monitoring of Russian forces across hundreds of kilometers, so the 18 km altitude of a balloon is hardly going to be a problem. 

And if you can provoke a hostile fighter to actually use its targeting radar against your balloon's SIGINT suite, that's a bonus. 
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Action80 on February 14, 2023, 08:43:45 PM
USAF, RAF and others are making daily flights by E-8 JOINT-STARS, RC-135 Rivet-Joint, etc, along the Moldavia, Ukraine and Belarus borders, in order to conduct SIGINT and monitoring of Russian forces across hundreds of kilometers, so the 18 km altitude of a balloon is hardly going to be a problem. 

And if you can provoke a hostile fighter to actually use its targeting radar against your balloon's SIGINT suite, that's a bonus.
Have anything relative to the North American continent?
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: DuncanDoenitz on February 14, 2023, 10:20:33 PM
You seem to be suggesting that the only meaningful intelligence possible from balloon-altitudes is visible-light photographic.  I seem to be suggesting that your premise is false.  If it works over Europe, it works over North America; geographical location is irrelevant. 
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: markjo on February 14, 2023, 11:42:33 PM
This begs the question as to the purpose of the overhead objects or if there ever was any.
Consider the military uses of various parts of the EM spectrum other than visible light.
Title: Re: Balloon Madness
Post by: Rushy on February 20, 2023, 05:18:50 PM
https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/hobby-clubs-missing-balloon-feared-shot-down-usaf

It appears that the US and Canada have spent a non-zero amount of time destroying a hobbyist balloon that was worth maybe a few hundred dollars.