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Offline Pete Svarrior

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #20 on: February 13, 2023, 07:49:46 PM »
And you obviously have a link to those claims; its ok, we don't need to see it. 
Indeed, you (singular) don't. If you needed to see it, you wouldn't be hyperfixating on my joke post; you'd simply use the search feature on either of the two fora.
Read the FAQ before asking your question - chances are we already addressed it.
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Offline stack

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #21 on: February 13, 2023, 07:58:37 PM »
It is kind of strange. Apparently we used AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles to shoot down the balloons...at a per unit cost of US$381,069.74. The payload on the first one was the size of a bus if the reporting is correct. Perhaps worthy of a $400k missile. Not sure about the others. F-22's have a 20mm Gatling gun. I would think you could just plink-plink a balloon with a few rounds at a fraction of the cost. Guess not.

If you look at war economically the numbers will always look silly, but would you rather shoot down a $50 balloon staring at your missile silos or let the enemy get very valuable intel? It's hard to put a price tag on knowing precisely what occurs around your enemy's military bases.

I kinda think it's more about, "Hey! You can't violate our airspace with your looners!" I mean, doesn't everyone these days have satellite images and such of everyone's missile bases/silos? It all seems hardly "hidden".

A quick google search:




To Find America's Nuclear Missiles, Try Google Maps

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #22 on: February 13, 2023, 08:17:05 PM »
It is kind of strange. Apparently we used AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles to shoot down the balloons...at a per unit cost of US$381,069.74. The payload on the first one was the size of a bus if the reporting is correct. Perhaps worthy of a $400k missile. Not sure about the others. F-22's have a 20mm Gatling gun. I would think you could just plink-plink a balloon with a few rounds at a fraction of the cost. Guess not.

If you look at war economically the numbers will always look silly, but would you rather shoot down a $50 balloon staring at your missile silos or let the enemy get very valuable intel? It's hard to put a price tag on knowing precisely what occurs around your enemy's military bases.

I kinda think it's more about, "Hey! You can't violate our airspace with your looners!" I mean, doesn't everyone these days have satellite images and such of everyone's missile bases/silos? It all seems hardly "hidden".

A quick google search:




To Find America's Nuclear Missiles, Try Google Maps


Yes and no.
The resolution of orbital imaging satelites is not great.  We're talking zoomed out google maps, not great.
That's why, when Trump tweetet that picture of the Iranian rocket launch pad, it was a big deal.  It showed that US spy sattelites had insanely good resolution.  Enough to read letters on the side of the rocket launch pad. 

I suspect the chineese do not possess that kind of resolution so they can't see things like guard patrols, equipment movement, etc...
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Offline stack

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #23 on: February 13, 2023, 09:41:34 PM »
I guess I'm assuming all the super powers have the satellite super power resolution we have. Balloons just seem so quaint and 1800's even at 50-60k feet. Especially with all the hysteria around UAP's, mystery super sophisticated tech and such.

But maybe sometimes spycraft requires unexpected old-school methods.

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #24 on: February 13, 2023, 09:56:54 PM »
I guess I'm assuming all the super powers have the satellite super power resolution we have. Balloons just seem so quaint and 1800's even at 50-60k feet. Especially with all the hysteria around UAP's, mystery super sophisticated tech and such.

But maybe sometimes spycraft requires unexpected old-school methods.

Think of it this way.

1. All sattelites are tracked.  ALL of them.  Everything from like a few mm in size that's around the Earth is tracked to avoid collisions.  So spy sattelites are hard to hide.
2. The balloon was higher than any plane we have.  So it had a chance of being in that area of "Too high to hit, not high enough to be tracked".
3. They flew 3 of them across America during Trump's time undetected. 
4. They're slow but low powered and low tech so if they're captured, not a whole lot is learned.  A
5. And you can claim its a weather balloon.  Which would make shooting it down an act of aggression, legally.

Honestly its pretty ingenius.  PLUS they get realtime reaction times and tracking range of the US border.  Essentially seeing how far they can get into US territory before a response. Which is super helpful in a war.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Offline stack

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #25 on: February 14, 2023, 01:35:37 AM »
That's what I'm thinking too. Cheap, inconspicuous. Culpable deniability. Pretty smart actually. And here we are with things in the past like the billion dollar SR-71 blazing over China, 70k feet high at mach gazillion with humans onboard and in 2023 China has a happy, fun bobbing innocent weather balloon probably capturing just as much data

Offline Action80

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #26 on: February 14, 2023, 04:48:47 AM »
3. They flew 3 of them across America during Trump's time undetected. 
Begs the question, if they were undetected, how could anyone possibly know?
To be honest I am getting pretty bored of this place.

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Offline stack

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #27 on: February 14, 2023, 05:25:15 AM »
3. They flew 3 of them across America during Trump's time undetected. 
Begs the question, if they were undetected, how could anyone possibly know?

"A senior Pentagon official told reporters last week that Chinese government surveillance balloons hovered over the continental U.S. “at least three times” during the Trump administration, and one additional time at the beginning of the Biden administration."

Supposedly, for unknown reasons, the pentagon did not inform the Trump whitehouse nor the Biden whitehouse. Who knows why.

Then there's this to muddy the waters even further...

"The transiting of three suspected Chinese spy balloons over the continental US during the Trump administration was only discovered after President Joe Biden took office, a senior administration official told CNN on Sunday.

The official did not say how or when those incidents were discovered.
"

And this...

WASHINGTON — The top military commander overseeing North American airspace said Monday that some previous incursions by Chinese spy balloons during the Trump administration were not detected in real time, and the Pentagon learned of them only later.

“I will tell you that we did not detect those threats, and that’s a domain awareness gap,” said Gen. Glen D. VanHerck, the commander of the Pentagon’s Northern Command.

One explanation, multiple U.S. officials said, is that some previous incursions were initially classified as “unidentified aerial phenomena,” Pentagon speak for U.F.O.s. As the Pentagon and intelligence agencies stepped up efforts over the past two years to find explanations for many of those incidents, officials reclassified some events as Chinese spy balloons.

It is not clear when the Pentagon determined the incidents involved Chinese spying. When the determination was made, officials kept the information secret to avoid letting China know their surveillance efforts were uncovered, the officials said.

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #28 on: February 14, 2023, 06:44:20 AM »
3. They flew 3 of them across America during Trump's time undetected. 
Begs the question, if they were undetected, how could anyone possibly know?

I heard reports that they learned of them from spies inside China.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

Offline Action80

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #29 on: February 14, 2023, 09:05:33 AM »
3. They flew 3 of them across America during Trump's time undetected. 
Begs the question, if they were undetected, how could anyone possibly know?

"A senior Pentagon official told reporters last week that Chinese government surveillance balloons hovered over the continental U.S. “at least three times” during the Trump administration, and one additional time at the beginning of the Biden administration."
Wow, it makes you wonder...Wouldn't everyone have had a field day "trumpeting" (pun intended) this juicy tidbit while he was in office?

Again, if they were "undetected," how do you come about the news three years later?

ETA: I see dave writes this:

Quote
I heard reports that they learned of them from spies inside China.

How or why would anyone trust any spy?

Quote
Supposedly, for unknown reasons, the pentagon did not inform the Trump whitehouse nor the Biden whitehouse. Who knows why.

Then there's this to muddy the waters even further...

"The transiting of three suspected Chinese spy balloons over the continental US during the Trump administration was only discovered after President Joe Biden took office, a senior administration official told CNN on Sunday.

The official did not say how or when those incidents were discovered.
"

And this...

WASHINGTON — The top military commander overseeing North American airspace said Monday that some previous incursions by Chinese spy balloons during the Trump administration were not detected in real time, and the Pentagon learned of them only later.

“I will tell you that we did not detect those threats, and that’s a domain awareness gap,” said Gen. Glen D. VanHerck, the commander of the Pentagon’s Northern Command.

One explanation, multiple U.S. officials said, is that some previous incursions were initially classified as “unidentified aerial phenomena,” Pentagon speak for U.F.O.s. As the Pentagon and intelligence agencies stepped up efforts over the past two years to find explanations for many of those incidents, officials reclassified some events as Chinese spy balloons.

It is not clear when the Pentagon determined the incidents involved Chinese spying. When the determination was made, officials kept the information secret to avoid letting China know their surveillance efforts were uncovered, the officials said.

I think the whole story is pure hoakum.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2023, 11:49:49 AM by Action80 »
To be honest I am getting pretty bored of this place.

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Offline stack

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #30 on: February 14, 2023, 10:36:34 AM »
It does seem bizarre that somehow the Pentagon retroactively said there were others from forever ago. Even one from earlier in this administration. And they are all cagey about what exactly all these balloons were carrying. And now we seem to be missiling a new one everyday. Looners are attacking us! Next it will be the furries...

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Offline Rushy

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #31 on: February 14, 2023, 02:13:47 PM »
I kinda think it's more about, "Hey! You can't violate our airspace with your looners!" I mean, doesn't everyone these days have satellite images and such of everyone's missile bases/silos? It all seems hardly "hidden".

A quick google search:


There's a lot more to intelligence gathering than taking pictures of an area...

Offline Action80

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #32 on: February 14, 2023, 04:41:34 PM »
I kinda think it's more about, "Hey! You can't violate our airspace with your looners!" I mean, doesn't everyone these days have satellite images and such of everyone's missile bases/silos? It all seems hardly "hidden".

A quick google search:


There's a lot more to intelligence gathering than taking pictures of an area...
Granted, but what kind of intelligent beings can conduct more intelligence operations if they are not intelligent enough to detect slow-moving, unwanted objects across their airspace; further, after once having identified the objects, take over a week to remove it?

Further, what possible intelligent gathering other than taking pictures would a moving overhead object be capable of?

Given the reported altitude of these objects, it is doubtful they are stingrays or dirtboxes.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2023, 07:25:14 PM by Action80 »
To be honest I am getting pretty bored of this place.

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Offline Rushy

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #33 on: February 14, 2023, 06:27:19 PM »
Granted, but what kind of intelligent beings can conduct more intelligence operations if they not intelligent enough to detect slow moving, unwanted objects across their airspace; further, once having identified the objects, take over a week to remove it?

Did you have a stroke while writing this or something?

Further, what possible intelligent gathering other than taking pictures would a moving overhead object be capable of?

Use your imagination. I'd rather not spoon-feed people on this topic for a variety of reasons, but I can say there's a lot more than pictures.

« Last Edit: February 14, 2023, 06:31:51 PM by Rushy »

Offline Action80

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #34 on: February 14, 2023, 07:24:09 PM »
Granted, but what kind of intelligent beings can conduct more intelligence operations if they are not intelligent enough to detect slow-moving, unwanted objects across their airspace; further, after once having identified the objects, take over a week to remove it?

Did you have a stroke while writing this or something?
Not at all.

Further, what possible intelligent gathering other than taking pictures would a moving overhead object be capable of?

Use your imagination. I'd rather not spoon-feed people on this topic for a variety of reasons, but I can say there's a lot more than pictures.
I did. I listed a couple.

You listed none.

So far, you just made a claim there is more to intelligence gathering than taking pictures. They actually called the first one a "spy balloon."

This begs the question as to the purpose of the overhead objects or if there ever was any.

Try a fork instead of a spoon perhaps.
 
Question is, can those two I presented be conducted from 50-60k ft? They typically are not.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2023, 07:29:06 PM by Action80 »
To be honest I am getting pretty bored of this place.

Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #35 on: February 14, 2023, 08:25:03 PM »
USAF, RAF and others are making daily flights by E-8 JOINT-STARS, RC-135 Rivet-Joint, etc, along the Moldavia, Ukraine and Belarus borders, in order to conduct SIGINT and monitoring of Russian forces across hundreds of kilometers, so the 18 km altitude of a balloon is hardly going to be a problem. 

And if you can provoke a hostile fighter to actually use its targeting radar against your balloon's SIGINT suite, that's a bonus. 

Offline Action80

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #36 on: February 14, 2023, 08:43:45 PM »
USAF, RAF and others are making daily flights by E-8 JOINT-STARS, RC-135 Rivet-Joint, etc, along the Moldavia, Ukraine and Belarus borders, in order to conduct SIGINT and monitoring of Russian forces across hundreds of kilometers, so the 18 km altitude of a balloon is hardly going to be a problem. 

And if you can provoke a hostile fighter to actually use its targeting radar against your balloon's SIGINT suite, that's a bonus.
Have anything relative to the North American continent?
To be honest I am getting pretty bored of this place.

Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #37 on: February 14, 2023, 10:20:33 PM »
You seem to be suggesting that the only meaningful intelligence possible from balloon-altitudes is visible-light photographic.  I seem to be suggesting that your premise is false.  If it works over Europe, it works over North America; geographical location is irrelevant. 

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Offline markjo

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #38 on: February 14, 2023, 11:42:33 PM »
This begs the question as to the purpose of the overhead objects or if there ever was any.
Consider the military uses of various parts of the EM spectrum other than visible light.
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Offline Rushy

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Re: Balloon Madness
« Reply #39 on: February 20, 2023, 05:18:50 PM »
https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/hobby-clubs-missing-balloon-feared-shot-down-usaf

It appears that the US and Canada have spent a non-zero amount of time destroying a hobbyist balloon that was worth maybe a few hundred dollars.