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Flat Earth Discussion Boards => Flat Earth Investigations => Topic started by: Dr David Thork on December 29, 2021, 12:17:08 PM

Title: Weather forecasts
Post by: Dr David Thork on December 29, 2021, 12:17:08 PM
Weather forecasts are based on 'THE SCIENCE'.  >o<

Now, whilst no one expects them to be deadly accurate, you'd expect some kind of prediction. You aren't expecting a wild stab in the dark. After all, the weather scientists have the most powerful computers on earth. They model complex algorithms using millions of data points. You'd expect, therefore, for their forecast to be a little more accurate than if they had slaughtered a goat to see how the entrails lie, when arriving at a forecast. And yet, here is the forecast for next week from two different providers, both offering me a tile of their prediction.

(https://i.ibb.co/tzZx2g8/weather.png)

So which is it? Am I expecting the coldest weather in living memory, or the hottest? I mean this is only a prediction for next week. Its not like I'm asking them to tell me what is going to happen in April. That would be a prediction on climate and I have zero confidence they can predict the future climate ... let alone to 1.5 degrees or whatever they fear, but I digress.

When something as fundamental as weather prediction, a science with so much money poured into it can't tell me with any degree of accuracy whatsoever whether I'll be freezing my nuts off next week or breaking out my shorts, why would I trust other scientific predictions also foisted upon me by the mainstream media such as coronavirus spread, climate change or inflation models? These models are untrustworthy. I'm just being lied to over and over and told to 'trust the science'. But the science is bunk.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: DuncanDoenitz on December 29, 2021, 12:52:00 PM
Both agencies, and others, are actually forecasting a mild New Years Eve, and lower temperatures the following week. 

Congratulations, you have exposed something quite sensational. 
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Iceman on December 29, 2021, 02:28:35 PM
You make it seem like it should be 100% correct all the time if you just throw enough computing power at the problem, which is obviously not the issue.

Weather forecasting also suffered during the earlier parts of the pandemic because there were fewer flights and observations reported by commercial pilots.

It does drive me crazy hearing cop-out forecasts in the summer that are basically just admissions of defeat, loaded with catch-all phrases that mean they really can’t tell us what it’s going to do. And note they always report 40 or 60% chance of precipitation… if they said 50, they’d basically be admitting it’s a coin flip! That doesn’t mean we don’t have a good sense of what’s coming down the pipe though. We understand many of the the feedbacks and climate responses, there just isn’t enough detail yet to fully capture the details.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Tom Bishop on December 29, 2021, 02:33:50 PM
Weather prediction has always been a scam, right up there with gravitational physics. If they can't predict three bodies what makes you think they can predict a quintillion bodies? Here is a documentary about how anything beyond the simplest Newtonian equations is unpredictable:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSugrPBR9JA

Three Body Problem is discussed at 9:40
Weather is discussed at 13:20
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: GoldCashew on December 29, 2021, 03:22:07 PM
Weather prediction has always been a scam, right up there with gravitational physics. If they can't predict three bodies what makes you think they can predict a quintillion bodies? Here is a documentary about how anything beyond the simplest Newtonian equations are unpredictable:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSugrPBR9JA

Three Body Problem is discussed at 9:40
Weather is discussed at 13:20


Tom - declaring that forecasting the weather has always been a scam is taking conspiratorial theory thinking to a whole new level. Besides pulling down YouTube videos, do you have any direct evidence and facts that support your conspiracy theory that predicting weather is a scam? Are Meteorologists now all liars and scammers that work in a coordinated fashion with each another on a daily basis to create fictitious weather predictions?

To say that forecasting weather has always been a scam implies that the ability for Meteorologists to help predict and track the movement of snow-storm patterns, the movement of storms, hot and cold fronts is also a big lie and meaningless.... which it isn't.

I live in tornado alley in the US and can't begin to tell you the positive impact of Meteorologists coordinating closely with on-the ground fire and rescue to help predict and ready areas for possibly devastating tornado paths hitting towns. The same with snow-storms when I lived in Michigan. I am sure the same with Hurricanes for the many folks that live in and around the Gulf States or East Coast.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Iceman on December 29, 2021, 03:56:59 PM
Yep, as fun as it is to shit on them for missing the odd isolated shower in their forecast that ruins your picnic, accurate forecasting has saved countless lives and trillions of dollars in property damage by providing reliable advanced warning for major events.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Dr David Thork on December 29, 2021, 04:51:49 PM
Tom - declaring that forecasting the weather has always been a scam is taking conspiratorial theory thinking to a whole new level.
Have a little read of the link below.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_lore
^Now, are you going to stand by your assertion that weather forecasting hasn't always been a scam?

And you know what? Those old proverbs about red sky at night or moon halos still tend to be a lot more accurate than the supercomputers.

Besides pulling down YouTube videos, do you have any direct evidence and facts that support your conspiracy theory that predicting weather is a scam?
Weather prediction is sold. Sold to militaries, sold to airlines, sold to app makers and TV stations. Its big business. And yet, they can give a shitty prediction and there is no comeback. You can't sue them. They can tell you it won't rain, and yet your wedding dress can get soaked. Tell you the sea will be calm and yet you can get caught in a storm. You can lose your life because they sold you a shitty forecast and your family can't sue them for that. Think about that. You paid them for a service. They completely fucked it up, and you don't even get a refund. That, in any other line of work ... is a scam.

Are Meteorologists now all liars and scammers that work in a coordinated fashion with each another on a daily basis to create fictitious weather predictions?
Yes. Liars who will happily take money and tell you that the world is going to end in 20 years if that's what their pay masters ask for.

To say that forecasting weather has always been a scam implies that the ability for Meteorologists to help predict and track the movement of snow-storm patterns, the movement of storms, hot and cold fronts is also a big lie and meaningless.... which it isn't.
Actually, it kind of is. Any fool can say a cloud rained over London and headed north and rained over Birmingham and the future will be that it carries on heading north and will rain over Liverpool in roughly the time it takes the wind to push that cloud north. Especially when I can add a 60% probability to cover my arse. I don't need a supercomputer for that.

I live in tornado alley in the US and can't begin to tell you the positive impact of Meteorologists coordinating closely with on-the ground fire and rescue to help predict and ready areas for possibly devastating tornado paths hitting towns.
You live in tornado alley. It is possible that in tornado season a tornado might hit your house? Wow, easy money. As a newly appointed coprologist let me be the first to tell you that it is possible that bears might shit in the woods. I take all major credit cards and paypal. You are welcome.

The same with snow-storms when I lived in Michigan. I am sure the same with Hurricanes for the many folks that live in and around the Gulf States or East Coast.
Imagine thanking science that someone can tell you during hurricane season that a hurricane that is headed your way, might be headed your way.  ::)
Now, if they could tell you a hurricane will form and go a particular direction, not just extrapolate where one has already been and draw a line on a map, then I'd think it a service worthy of respect.

Yep, as fun as it is to shit on them for missing the odd isolated shower in their forecast that ruins your picnic, accurate forecasting has saved countless lives and trillions of dollars in property damage by providing reliable advanced warning for major events.
Accurate forecasting? Really? I live in a changeable part of the world (United Kingdom). Its not like Spain where tomorrow will be hot just like yesterday. Our weather is more changeable than anywhere else on earth. And I can tell you that my lived experience is that the weather shysters have no Th>o<rking clue at all.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Tom Bishop on December 29, 2021, 05:09:21 PM
Tom - declaring that forecasting the weather has always been a scam is taking conspiratorial theory thinking to a whole new level. Besides pulling down YouTube videos, do you have any direct evidence and facts that support your conspiracy theory that predicting weather is a scam? Are Meteorologists now all liars and scammers that work in a coordinated fashion with each another on a daily basis to create fictitious weather predictions?

No, they aren't fictitious. They just aren't very good. The scam came in when society convinced you that we were a super-advanced civilization who could model gravity and the weather. We are not and can not. This is all described in the NOVA documentary I embedded above.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: GoldCashew on December 29, 2021, 06:06:26 PM
Tom - declaring that forecasting the weather has always been a scam is taking conspiratorial theory thinking to a whole new level. Besides pulling down YouTube videos, do you have any direct evidence and facts that support your conspiracy theory that predicting weather is a scam? Are Meteorologists now all liars and scammers that work in a coordinated fashion with each another on a daily basis to create fictitious weather predictions?

No, they aren't fictitious. They just aren't very good. The scam came in when society convinced you that we were a super-advanced civilization who could model gravity and the weather. We are not and can not. This is all described in the NOVA documentary I embedded above.


Weather can be modeled. Examples include modeling and predicting the paths of Hurricanes and the movements and paths of potentially destructive storms.

10 days ago, Meteorologists predicted record highs where I live, in the 70's where normally in the Christmas season we experience 30's and 40's. Guess what -- right now its 73 F and so they were correct.

The ability to predict weather accurately all the time is not perfect but it doesn't mean predicting weather is a scam.

Your getting quite wrapped up in conspiracies, from space travel to now weather.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: GoldCashew on December 29, 2021, 07:05:07 PM
Tom - declaring that forecasting the weather has always been a scam is taking conspiratorial theory thinking to a whole new level.
Have a little read of the link below.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_lore
^Now, are you going to stand by your assertion that weather forecasting hasn't always been a scam?

And you know what? Those old proverbs about red sky at night or moon halos still tend to be a lot more accurate than the supercomputers.

Besides pulling down YouTube videos, do you have any direct evidence and facts that support your conspiracy theory that predicting weather is a scam?
Weather prediction is sold. Sold to militaries, sold to airlines, sold to app makers and TV stations. Its big business. And yet, they can give a shitty prediction and there is no comeback. You can't sue them. They can tell you it won't rain, and yet your wedding dress can get soaked. Tell you the sea will be calm and yet you can get caught in a storm. You can lose your life because they sold you a shitty forecast and your family can't sue them for that. Think about that. You paid them for a service. They completely fucked it up, and you don't even get a refund. That, in any other line of work ... is a scam.

Are Meteorologists now all liars and scammers that work in a coordinated fashion with each another on a daily basis to create fictitious weather predictions?
Yes. Liars who will happily take money and tell you that the world is going to end in 20 years if that's what their pay masters ask for.

To say that forecasting weather has always been a scam implies that the ability for Meteorologists to help predict and track the movement of snow-storm patterns, the movement of storms, hot and cold fronts is also a big lie and meaningless.... which it isn't.
Actually, it kind of is. Any fool can say a cloud rained over London and headed north and rained over Birmingham and the future will be that it carries on heading north and will rain over Liverpool in roughly the time it takes the wind to push that cloud north. Especially when I can add a 60% probability to cover my arse. I don't need a supercomputer for that.

I live in tornado alley in the US and can't begin to tell you the positive impact of Meteorologists coordinating closely with on-the ground fire and rescue to help predict and ready areas for possibly devastating tornado paths hitting towns.
You live in tornado alley. It is possible that in tornado season a tornado might hit your house? Wow, easy money. As a newly appointed coprologist let me be the first to tell you that it is possible that bears might shit in the woods. I take all major credit cards and paypal. You are welcome.

The same with snow-storms when I lived in Michigan. I am sure the same with Hurricanes for the many folks that live in and around the Gulf States or East Coast.
Imagine thanking science that someone can tell you during hurricane season that a hurricane that is headed your way, might be headed your way.  ::)
Now, if they could tell you a hurricane will form and go a particular direction, not just extrapolate where one has already been and draw a line on a map, then I'd think it a service worthy of respect.

Yep, as fun as it is to shit on them for missing the odd isolated shower in their forecast that ruins your picnic, accurate forecasting has saved countless lives and trillions of dollars in property damage by providing reliable advanced warning for major events.
Accurate forecasting? Really? I live in a changeable part of the world (United Kingdom). Its not like Spain where tomorrow will be hot just like yesterday. Our weather is more changeable than anywhere else on earth. And I can tell you that my lived experience is that the weather shysters have no Th>o<rking clue at all.


Thork,

Living in Tornado alley and saying that sometime during Tornado season a Tornado will happen somewhere in the mid-west region is very different than predicting that the right conditions are occurring for a potentially destructive Tornado to develop within the next 30 minutes and for potential tornadoes to develop and move through "these" specific towns. Such predictions have saved many lives.

Living in the Gulf State regions and saying that sometime this season a hurricane will likely hit is very different than tracking the movement of a hurricane in real time and having models that help to predict where hurricanes might hit landfall and even predict windspeed to help determine severity.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Dr David Thork on December 29, 2021, 08:41:07 PM
Living in the Gulf State regions and saying that sometime this season a hurricane will likely hit is very different than tracking the movement of a hurricane in real time and having models that help to predict where hurricanes might hit landfall and even predict windspeed to help determine severity.
It is different. And if they could do that, I'd be impressed.

https://youtu.be/Qi1a5Tbw77E?t=7
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: stack on December 29, 2021, 09:21:49 PM
Ahhh, the 80's. I miss 'em.

In any case, things have progressed since Mr. Fish failed to look out the window to see the weather. Hurricane tracking, for example, has gotten a lot better since then. But, like most things, can always get better:

Hurricane path forecasts have much improved. Are they as good as they can get? (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/hurricane-path-forecasts-have-improved-can-they-get-better)

The first glimmers of the proto-Hurricane Laura showed up on forecasters’ radars on August 16, 2020, a large, loose splattering of clouds rolling off the edge of West Africa.

It grew quickly. By the time it got a name, on August 21, forecasters for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) were watching it obsessively, kneading in data from airplanes and models and their own decades of experience to forecast exactly where and how the storm would develop. By the 24th, the center’s three-day forecast predicted that Laura would make landfall at Cameron, Louisiana, at 2 a.m. on the 27th.

It arrived at 1 a.m., just one hour and 3,000 feet away...

The clearest success has come in forecasting the storm track. In 1990, the average three-day forecast was off by about 300 nautical miles, which is the distance from New Orleans to Houston. Today, that’s down to 100 miles. By the time a storm makes landfall, the difference between its predicted and real locations is less, on average, than 8 miles (and in Laura’s case, much less). The lead time has also grown: A five-day track forecast today is as accurate as a three-day one was in 2001.


And we also have had advancement in Presidential Hurricane Storm Tracking Technology, codename: 'SHARPIE':

(https://media.giphy.com/media/j3766xIPcI45luQNQs/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: GoldCashew on December 30, 2021, 12:30:44 AM
Living in the Gulf State regions and saying that sometime this season a hurricane will likely hit is very different than tracking the movement of a hurricane in real time and having models that help to predict where hurricanes might hit landfall and even predict windspeed to help determine severity.
It is different. And if they could do that, I'd be impressed.

https://youtu.be/Qi1a5Tbw77E?t=7



"Michael Fish & the Hurricane video" from the 80's = an in-depth critical thought conclusion that weather prediction is a scam.

Got it and well done with the research.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Dr David Thork on December 30, 2021, 12:58:19 AM
Living in the Gulf State regions and saying that sometime this season a hurricane will likely hit is very different than tracking the movement of a hurricane in real time and having models that help to predict where hurricanes might hit landfall and even predict windspeed to help determine severity.
It is different. And if they could do that, I'd be impressed.

https://youtu.be/Qi1a5Tbw77E?t=7



"Michael Fish & the Hurricane video" from the 80's = an in-depth critical thought conclusion that weather prediction is a scam.

Got it and well done with the research.
You gave an exact example of hurricane paths being utterly predicted by science and I showed the greatest hurricane failure to predict the path in living memory. I remember seeing all the trees flattened. It was utter devastation. What example would have been better?
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: GoldCashew on December 30, 2021, 02:13:28 AM
Living in the Gulf State regions and saying that sometime this season a hurricane will likely hit is very different than tracking the movement of a hurricane in real time and having models that help to predict where hurricanes might hit landfall and even predict windspeed to help determine severity.
It is different. And if they could do that, I'd be impressed.

https://youtu.be/Qi1a5Tbw77E?t=7



"Michael Fish & the Hurricane video" from the 80's = an in-depth critical thought conclusion that weather prediction is a scam.

Got it and well done with the research.
You gave an exact example of hurricane paths being utterly predicted by science and I showed the greatest hurricane failure to predict the path in living memory. I remember seeing all the trees flattened. It was utter devastation. What example would have been better?


The shortcoming in your "critical thought" analysis is that you posted a video of a missed prediction, being a major memorable event. Yet, you aren't balancing your critical thought analysis with the hundreds and hundreds of daily weather forecasts that do predict weather to an accurate degree and I think you know that. Additionally, we know that predictive modelling isn't always 100% accurate (as you stated), although achieving 6-sigma is always the desired state. (over the years technology gets more and more advanced, however, am not so sure we will ever reach 100%). And so, you didn't state that.

It's a classic example of confirmation bias and conspiratorial thinking, where you are "biased" towards believing only what you want to believe, rejecting science and resisting any falsification of your said belief. This was you saying "I'm just being lied to over and over and told to 'trust the science'. But the science is bunk." So you seem to be suggesting that you are being lied to or being scammed by Meteorologists... what's the benefit to a Meteorologist for lying to you? Are you suggesting that there is Weather Forecast Conspiracy?
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: stack on December 30, 2021, 04:27:28 AM
Living in the Gulf State regions and saying that sometime this season a hurricane will likely hit is very different than tracking the movement of a hurricane in real time and having models that help to predict where hurricanes might hit landfall and even predict windspeed to help determine severity.
It is different. And if they could do that, I'd be impressed.
"Michael Fish & the Hurricane video" from the 80's = an in-depth critical thought conclusion that weather prediction is a scam.

Got it and well done with the research.
You gave an exact example of hurricane paths being utterly predicted by science and I showed the greatest hurricane failure to predict the path in living memory. I remember seeing all the trees flattened. It was utter devastation. What example would have been better?

A better example might be something that is not 35 years old. I'm imagining that we've made some technological advances in the past 3 1/2 decades.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Tom Bishop on December 30, 2021, 07:36:03 PM
A better example might be something that is not 35 years old. I'm imagining that we've made some technological advances in the past 3 1/2 decades.

Actually the 1989 NOVA documentary I posted said that weather prediction would never significantly improve.

Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: stack on December 30, 2021, 07:52:01 PM
A better example might be something that is not 35 years old. I'm imagining that we've made some technological advances in the past 3 1/2 decades.

Actually the 1989 NOVA documentary I posted said that weather prediction would never significantly improve.

    18:33
    Lorenz was quite correct. We can never
    know the initial conditions accurately
    enough to prevent some tiny unnoticed
    error - even the flapping wings of a
    butterfly - amplifying itself and
    destroying our predictions. That's why we
    never will dramatically improve our
    weather forecasting. Lorenz actually
    calls it the butterfly effect.

I'm sure some aspects of weather we will never be able to accurately predict. But other aspects, like hurricanes, etc., have advanced quite well. And probably have saved many lives.

I guess 3 decades later Lorenz was wrong.

It is apparent to me that the possibilities of the aeroplane, which two or three years ago were thought to hold the solution to the [flying machine] problem, have been exhausted, and that we must turn elsewhere.
— Thomas Edison, November 1895

I have not the smallest molecule of faith in aerial navigation other than ballooning, or of the expectation of good results from any of the trials we heard of. So you will understand that I would not care to be a member of the Aeronautical Society.
— Lord Kelvin, 1896
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: DuncanDoenitz on December 30, 2021, 08:10:16 PM
No one is disputing that predicting the upshot of chaos is a difficult one to call.  I don't make predictions (and I never will), but its quite likely that our ability to do so is unlikely to improve significantly, whatever science we throw at it. 

To claim that it is a complete sham, however, is disingenuous.  For some of us the consequence of failure means just leaving home inappropriate attired and equipped, but for many customers of the meteorological services its a matter of life or death, and sometimes even profit and loss. 

Thork's OP however, juxtaposing 2 conflicting prediction of what is happening "next week" is a farce.  Yes, its the UK, so its cold one day and warm the next. 

Of course, part of the problem is that however many dollars, how much technology and expertise we throw at a question, some of the population can only understand the answer if its provided on a hand-held as a 125x125 pixel tile from a pay-per-click tabloid site.

Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Tom Bishop on December 30, 2021, 08:24:14 PM
Quote
I'm sure some aspects of weather we will never be able to accurately predict. But other aspects, like hurricanes, etc., have advanced quite well. And probably have saved many lives.

I doubt that there has been much advancement. Here is an article from 2016:

https://web.archive.org/web/20201108135932/http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/23/magazine/why-isnt-the-us-better-at-predicting-extreme-weather.html


Multiple hurricanes have behaved unpredictably, have caused loss of life, and could have caused massive loss of life.


One third of the models are wrong.


Weather prediction is most accurately depicted by a man doing a face palm.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Dr David Thork on December 30, 2021, 08:50:07 PM
Thork's OP however, juxtaposing 2 conflicting prediction of what is happening "next week" is a farce.  Yes, its the UK, so its cold one day and warm the next. 

Of course, part of the problem is that however many dollars, how much technology and expertise we throw at a question, some of the population can only understand the answer if its provided on a hand-held as a 125x125 pixel tile from a pay-per-click tabloid site.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that I know more about predicting weather than anyone else who visits this website. I have studied metrology extensively and passed numerous qualifications in the dark art.

I did metrology at A-level geography.
I did it again and in more depth when studying aerospace engineering. (A lot comes up with International Standard Atmososphere crap with maths and calcs).
I then did it again when I got my commercial pilots license at got 96% in the exam. That was more focused on cloud formations, winds and general weather predition from data.

Anyhoooooooo .... the thing I learned from all of that, is that weather prediction hasn't really improved in 100 years. The only thing that has improved is the speed at which data can be sent so you get your data points almost immediately meaning you can make a guess quicker.

But we get the same assumptions ...
Hurricane tracking, for example, has gotten a lot better since then.
It hasn't. We get data from far away sooner ... but what we do with it hasn't changed at all. The "science" that you blindly trust will let you down as often as not. Just beware placing blind trust in what scientists tell you. That's all the thread is about. Scientists tell you lies. Whether is Fauchi and Pfizer, the met office and the climate change brigade, or those who insist the earth is round. Lies, lies and more lies.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: stack on December 30, 2021, 09:00:41 PM
Scientists tell you lies.

All scientists are liars?
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: RonJ on December 30, 2021, 09:03:58 PM
Also remember that weather forecasters need weather observations to build their models.  About 70% of the earth’s surface is covered with water and the number of weather stations there is lacking.  Commercial ships carry weather stations aboard and transmit the readings about twice a day back to shore.  Unfortunately, the readings they provide don’t cover the whole ocean on a regular predictable basis.  Any readings obtained from ships are spotty. 
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Dr David Thork on December 30, 2021, 09:47:46 PM
Scientists tell you lies.

All scientists are liars?
Depends on the industry. All climate scientists are liars for example. Most coronavirus scientists are liars. Some sports scientists are liars.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: GoldCashew on December 30, 2021, 09:56:43 PM
Scientists tell you lies.

All scientists are liars?
Depends on the industry. All climate scientists are liars for example. Most coronavirus scientists are liars. Some sports scientists are liars.


What is a Meterologists / Climate Scientists motivation or benefit for lying about the weather?

Do you believe that there is a Weather Forecast Conspiracy just as you believe in a Space Travel Conspiracy?
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Dr David Thork on December 30, 2021, 09:59:35 PM
What is a Meterologists / Climate Scientists motivation or benefit for lying about the weather?
If you are a climate scientist who does not play the 'end of the world' game, you are shown the door. It's an industry, driven by profits. And those who want the results will only pay for reports that say climate change is real. So make those or find something else to do. They don't sell accurate climate predictions. They sell doom porn. That's the industry.

Ergo, the climate change scientists that are left are the ones prepared to lie for money. Anyone honest is weeded out almost immediately.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: stack on December 30, 2021, 10:13:54 PM
Scientists tell you lies.

All scientists are liars?

Depends on the industry. All climate scientists are liars for example.

Even the 3% of climate scientists who say climate change isn't an issue? They are liars too?

Most coronavirus scientists are liars.

This is based on your vast knowledge of virology, biology, medicine & pharmacology?

Some sports scientists are liars.

What's a "sports scientist"?

Lastly, when you pilot a plane, do you refuse to check the weather forecasts prior to taking flight?

Second lastly, how much do climate scientists make off of doom porn? Is it lucrative? If so, I'm thinking of a career change.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: AATW on December 30, 2021, 10:39:59 PM
What is a Meterologists / Climate Scientists motivation or benefit for lying about the weather?
If you are a climate scientist who does not play the 'end of the world' game, you are shown the door. It's an industry, driven by profits.
I never understand this argument. You know what there's a lot of profit in? Oil. Have you seen Dubai? There would surely be a lot of money in downplaying climate change. Also, according to this dude a lot of the old climate models actually weren't that far off. They've just been deliberately misrepresented by people with a certain agenda

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4zul0BuO8A
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: GoldCashew on December 30, 2021, 10:42:12 PM
What is a Meterologists / Climate Scientists motivation or benefit for lying about the weather?
If you are a climate scientist who does not play the 'end of the world' game, you are shown the door. It's an industry, driven by profits. And those who want the results will only pay for reports that say climate change is real. So make those or find something else to do. They don't sell accurate climate predictions. They sell doom porn. That's the industry.

Ergo, the climate change scientists that are left are the ones prepared to lie for money. Anyone honest is weeded out almost immediately.


I'm confused.

At first this thread was about weather predictions. Tom jumped in and added that predicting the weather was a scam.

You are now switching gears and talking about climate change scientists.

I think we are still on the topic of the notion that predicting weather is a scam, i.e. if a Meteorologist on the news says that the storm conditions are likely for a Tornado to develop in the next 30 minute in this specific location that they are lying and scamming us. And so I think we were talking about how predictive technology has advanced much better from the 1980's, however still not perfect.

Do you believe Meteorologists that try to forecast and predict next week's weather are liars and trying to scam us?
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Dr David Thork on December 30, 2021, 11:02:01 PM
Even the 3% of climate scientists who say climate change isn't an issue? They are liars too?
I believe the lie is that 3% of climate scientists say it isn't an issue. You never ever get to hear from such people. I don't believe they actually exist on someone's payroll. If they are 3% who are perpetually unemployed ... well it makes no difference.

Most coronavirus scientists are liars.

This is based on your vast knowledge of virology, biology, medicine & pharmacology?
Based on when you say one thing, then flip flop due to political pressures, yes, you are a liar. Example ... Fauchi telling people that masks don't stop the spread of coronavirus.

Some sports scientists are liars.

What's a "sports scientist"?
Quite.

Lastly, when you pilot a plane, do you refuse to check the weather forecasts prior to taking flight?

Second lastly, how much do climate scientists make off of doom porn? Is it lucrative? If so, I'm thinking of a career change.
I always checked the weather. Every single day in enormous detail. That's how I know how often the prediction is wrong.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: GoldCashew on December 30, 2021, 11:33:31 PM
Even the 3% of climate scientists who say climate change isn't an issue? They are liars too?
I believe the lie is that 3% of climate scientists say it isn't an issue. You never ever get to hear from such people. I don't believe they actually exist on someone's payroll. If they are 3% who are perpetually unemployed ... well it makes no difference.

Most coronavirus scientists are liars.

This is based on your vast knowledge of virology, biology, medicine & pharmacology?
Based on when you say one thing, then flip flop due to political pressures, yes, you are a liar. Example ... Fauchi telling people that masks don't stop the spread of coronavirus.

Some sports scientists are liars.

What's a "sports scientist"?
Quite.

Lastly, when you pilot a plane, do you refuse to check the weather forecasts prior to taking flight?

Second lastly, how much do climate scientists make off of doom porn? Is it lucrative? If so, I'm thinking of a career change.
I always checked the weather. Every single day in enormous detail. That's how I know how often the prediction is wrong.


I think you're telling a white lie Thork.

I fly as well and always check the weather (as of course all pilots will do; it kind of comes with the territory).

That's how I know how often such predictions help me to plan my routes as such predictions are generally accurate including about where and when turbulence can be expected.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Dr David Thork on December 30, 2021, 11:42:04 PM
I think you're telling a white lie Thork.

I fly as well and always check the weather (as of course all pilots will do; it kind of comes with the territory).

That's how I know how often such predictions help me to plan my routes as such predictions are generally accurate including about where and when turbulence can be expected.
Metars are accurate. Those are direct observations made in the last hour. They are useful. If you are going for a little 1 hour pootle, use the metars from your local area. But, if you are going a long way away and will be hours in flight ... now you need a TAF. And now you are going to be reading stupid shit like PROB30 which means you have a 30% chance of something happening. Not very useful is it? Should I avoid such things 30% of the time? And the problem is, if I do avoid it, it might be in the place I went to avoid the thing in the first place and I still end up in it. But for me, by far the most unreliable information is cloud height in a TAF. And that shit will kill you IFR. I learned some very hard lessons about taking TAF information with a pinch of salt. And yet someone got paid to make that TAF. Paid well. And I can't sue them if I am forced to divert because they got it wrong.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: stack on December 31, 2021, 12:40:10 AM
Even the 3% of climate scientists who say climate change isn't an issue? They are liars too?
I believe the lie is that 3% of climate scientists say it isn't an issue. You never ever get to hear from such people. I don't believe they actually exist on someone's payroll. If they are 3% who are perpetually unemployed ... well it makes no difference.

Longtime Climate Science Denier Hired At NOAA (https://www.npr.org/2020/09/12/912301325/longtime-climate-science-denier-hired-at-noaa)

David Legates, a University of Delaware professor of climatology who has spent much of his career questioning basic tenets of climate science, has been hired for a top position at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Legates confirmed to NPR that he was recently hired as NOAA's deputy assistant secretary of commerce for observation and prediction. The position suggests that he reports directly to Neil Jacobs, the acting head of the agency that is in charge of the federal government's sprawling weather and climate prediction work.

Legates has a long history of using his position as an academic scientist to publicly cast doubt on climate science.


Hired in a top spot at NOAA, no less.

Most coronavirus scientists are liars.

This is based on your vast knowledge of virology, biology, medicine & pharmacology?
Based on when you say one thing, then flip flop due to political pressures, yes, you are a liar. Example ... Fauchi telling people that masks don't stop the spread of coronavirus.

Fauchi doesn't seem like he qualifies as "most".  "Most" would be a majority of covid scientists. I take it the most you say are liars are ones you don't agree with. Are there some that you do agree with that are liars?

Lastly, when you pilot a plane, do you refuse to check the weather forecasts prior to taking flight?

Second lastly, how much do climate scientists make off of doom porn? Is it lucrative? If so, I'm thinking of a career change.
I always checked the weather. Every single day in enormous detail. That's how I know how often the prediction is wrong.

Why would you even bother to check if you have zero confidence in it?
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Iceman on December 31, 2021, 12:56:51 AM
One of Thork’s better ‘throw shit and see what sticks’ threads. Started with a poorly-conceived rant about two conflicting NYE forecasts for Great Britain, now we’re on to climate deniers, evil Fauci, lying sports scientists (what!?).

Can we get this back on track or you can just admit you just got sad that you couldn’t pre-plan which leather jacket to wear to the pub on NYE.

The failure of scientists and science communicators in conveying the relevant take homes points of climate change is a thread all on its own.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Roundy on December 31, 2021, 12:57:24 AM
Thork's OP however, juxtaposing 2 conflicting prediction of what is happening "next week" is a farce.  Yes, its the UK, so its cold one day and warm the next. 

Of course, part of the problem is that however many dollars, how much technology and expertise we throw at a question, some of the population can only understand the answer if its provided on a hand-held as a 125x125 pixel tile from a pay-per-click tabloid site.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that I know more about predicting weather than anyone else who visits this website. I have studied metrology extensively and passed numerous qualifications in the dark art.

I did metrology at A-level geography.
I did it again and in more depth when studying aerospace engineering.

How does having extensive schooling in the science of measurement make you an expert at predicting the weather?

I thought you might have meant meteorology and that it was a typo... but the same typo twice? By someone trying to pass himself off as an expert?

So why does your huge knowledge of metrology lead you to being better equipped to judge matters involving weather prediction?
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: GoldCashew on December 31, 2021, 01:40:56 AM
I think you're telling a white lie Thork.

I fly as well and always check the weather (as of course all pilots will do; it kind of comes with the territory).

That's how I know how often such predictions help me to plan my routes as such predictions are generally accurate including about where and when turbulence can be expected.
Metars are accurate. Those are direct observations made in the last hour. They are useful. If you are going for a little 1 hour pootle, use the metars from your local area. But, if you are going a long way away and will be hours in flight ... now you need a TAF. And now you are going to be reading stupid shit like PROB30 which means you have a 30% chance of something happening. Not very useful is it? Should I avoid such things 30% of the time? And the problem is, if I do avoid it, it might be in the place I went to avoid the thing in the first place and I still end up in it. But for me, by far the most unreliable information is cloud height in a TAF. And that shit will kill you IFR. I learned some very hard lessons about taking TAF information with a pinch of salt. And yet someone got paid to make that TAF. Paid well. And I can't sue them if I am forced to divert because they got it wrong.


Your difficult to follow in this particular thread about predicting weather because you are all over the place with bringing in other topics like climate change that are an entirely separate thread.

Bringing this thread back to center.... do you believe that when Meteorologists communicate weather forecasts that they are purposefully lying and scamming? (Tom stated that predicting weather is a scam).

Is my local weatherman part of a sinister plot to lie and scam the local public about the 10 day weather forecast?
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: RonJ on December 31, 2021, 02:32:52 AM
Before leaving a dock at a foreign country we had a weather map sent to us from a weather forecasting and weather routing service in the USA.  Then about twice a day we would get updates.  A recommended route was given with the expected weather and sea conditions posted for our route.  It wasn’t too bad.  We would always download the satellite weather maps as well for comparison.  The weather forecast was very important for our journeys of about 6200 miles across the Pacific.  Avoidance of the typhoons was always a good thing, so the weather forecasts was essential to our wellbeing. 
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: AATW on December 31, 2021, 08:48:43 AM
I don’t think weather forecasting has got worse, but people’s expectations have got higher. With all the computing power we have now people expect very granular and accurate forecasts. As Tom noted above the weather is a fundamentally chaotic system and thus impossible to predict long term. I vaguely agree they should be doing better in the short term though. I don’t know where the iPhone app gets its data but it really isn’t very good at knowing what it’s going to do in a few hours.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: DuncanDoenitz on December 31, 2021, 04:57:38 PM
Soooooo, where are we. 

Its New Years Eve and, if the good Meterologist-Captain-Doctor's second tile is to be believed, the UK was predicted to have temperatures today higher than Spain. 

From METARs at 16.30 utc; London City Airport = 15 C.  Malaga Airport = 14 C.  (and definitely unseasonably warm in NW England). 

Gotta say the Climate Change and Covid things have muddied the waters somewhat, so I don't honestly know where this leaves the Weather Guys' evil master-plan for world domination. 

Of course, that still leaves his first tile out in the cold (pun intended), but as the 96% scoring CPL-holder neglected to specify a timeframe more accurate than "next week", I guess we'll just have to watch the skies.  And wait. 

edit; this news just in .....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-59840877

Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Clyde Frog on December 31, 2021, 10:15:40 PM
Places like The Weather Channel have been their own worst enemy in terms of public perception of how well they perform their duty of reporting the weather. A few years back, their app rolled out a feature that would send you a notification on your phone letting you know rain would begin in, for example, 10 minutes. The problem with that is, when they send that alert and it's either already started raining OR 10 minutes pass and the rain has not yet begun, it's an immediate reminder that they, yet again, got something wrong. A thing that I didn't even ask them to communicate. A truly self-inflicted wound.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Roundy on December 31, 2021, 10:35:43 PM
Places like The Weather Channel have been their own worst enemy in terms of public perception of how well they perform their duty of reporting the weather. A few years back, their app rolled out a feature that would send you a notification on your phone letting you know rain would begin in, for example, 10 minutes. The problem with that is, when they send that alert and it's either already started raining OR 10 minutes pass and the rain has not yet begun, it's an immediate reminder that they, yet again, got something wrong. A thing that I didn't even ask them to communicate. A truly self-inflicted wound.

"I'm Karen Smith, it's 68 degrees and there's a" (fondles boobs) "30% chance it's already raining."
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: jimster on December 31, 2021, 11:01:49 PM
Weather forecasting was invented by a guy in a trench in WW1, as I recall. He had the idea that if he knew the temp and air pressure of every cubic foot of the earth's atmosphere, he could predict the temperature and pressure in the next moment in each cubic foot. In practical reality, we don't have that, but we can come close enough for some useful approximation that is not 100% perfect, but way better than pure chance. Data processing power is also a limiting factor. At UCLA in 1970s, we had one of 10 IBM 360 Model 91 computers, for a brief moment, biggest in the world, certainly on the west coast. It had 4 MB of memory when 8 KB was common and 64 KB was big. You had to finish your programming lab by midnight, because then they used it to run the next day's weather forecast.

It also depends on where you live. I live on the west coast where our weather comes from the pacific ocean, thousands of miles of similar moderate temperature and no mountains. You can watch storms come in, they lok like multiple waves of commas or parenthesis moving in slowly changing formations. Very well organized. They break up somewhat at the coast, but after the storm crosses the continental divide, it whacks into the swirl of weather from north pole, atlantic, gulf of Mexico, and swirls. East coast is harder to be accurate.

They called the storm of the last 2 weeks here, pretty much nailed it, predicted record snow in the sierra, happened just when they said. Weather reports are not always accurate, but way better than wild guess. Weather in Tahoe is the weather from San Francisco, 12 hours later.

The forecast here is almost always close, often right on. The rain might be an hour early or an hour late, it night be a little less or more than predicted. If they spent the money to grid the pacific ocean with weather ships and spent much more supercomputer time running the model, it would be more accurate. Not done because $$$$$$. And the money gets bigger with more accuracy, diminishing returns.

**************************************************************************************************************************************************

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Automatic_Weather_Stations_Project

Weather forecasters need to look at the weather around them and make global weather maps, using satellite photos, and matching that up with earthbound data. This extends everywhere in every direction, there is no edge.

If you postulate FE with an edge, either the weather forecasting system is part of a conspiracy, or they are actually complete morons, or there is a giant industry of faking data, which has to be continuous 24/7/365. The Antarctic weather stations and their data must be faked in a way that matches up with the fake satellite pics. The storm coming onto one side of the disk would have to match one leaving the other side. Weather forcasters fundamentally have to know the shape of the earth. Or they are either genius frauds, or morons making occasional lucky guesses.

That would be something, wish I could know more about how this works on FE. Perhaps a new branch of weather studies, what happens with weather up against the dome. We know only one thing - weather at the south pole works very differently on FE vs RE.

Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Kangaroony on January 02, 2022, 06:07:09 PM
Weather prediction has always been a scam, right up there with gravitational physics...

Personally, here in Australia, I've never once queried the weather sciences and/or both long
and short term forecasts as being any sort of deliberate "scam". 

In fact the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has shown over more than a century to be accurate
to around a 97% rate as far as daily maximum and minimum temperatures are concerned.  It's
also accurately predicted the recently past El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) period of the
eastern Pacific Ocean, which Australia borders. 

Currently, La Niña conditions continue in the Pacific. Climate models suggest this La Niña will persist
until the late southern hemisphere summer or early autumn 2022. La Niña events increase the chance
of above average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia during summer.  And if one
checks rainfall data for Australia's eastern seaboard, it'll be seen that rainfall figures have been, in
many locations, well above the long-term average, or in fact record falls.

—Tom, do you have any evidence that weather predictions are a deliberate scam, who would be perpetrating
them, and for what specific reasons?
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Tom Bishop on January 03, 2022, 02:01:19 AM
These questions were already asked and answered. Go back and read them and address the responses.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: GoldCashew on January 03, 2022, 02:18:39 PM
These questions were already asked and answered. Go back and read them and address the responses.


Tom,

Given that you believe forecasting the weather is a scam and thus are presenting a theory for a conspiracy occuring, a few critical thought questions:

1) From this assertion, what would be the motivation for news weatherman to be lying and scamming the public?

2) If weathermens motivation is money, how are they making money from this? Are insurance companies secretly paying weathermen to lie?

3) Do you believe weatherman (i.e. on the news) are paid actors?

4) Do you believe weatherman go into college or university thinking that predicting weather is possible but then when they are about to graduate or are then hired by weather companies they are then told in secret that everything they learned is a lie and a scam? Are they paid to keep the big secret going and their fake careers going? Who pays them?

5) Given your belief that forecasting weather is a scam and thus a theory of a conspiracy going on, do you consider yourself a conspiracy theorist or a zetetic / empirical observer?

6) How do you ensure that your beliefs in conspiracy theories don't fog up your empirical observations?
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Pete Svarrior on January 03, 2022, 02:40:20 PM
3) Do you believe weatherman (i.e. on the news) are paid actors?
One moment. What else do you expect the people who present the weather in the news to be? They are very rarely meteorologists.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: GoldCashew on January 03, 2022, 03:17:37 PM
3) Do you believe weatherman (i.e. on the news) are paid actors?
One moment. What else do you expect the people who present the weather in the news to be? They are very rarely meteorologists.


Not sure i understand your question as the weatherman that present weather forecasts in my local area on TV are Meteorologists.

Here is a Meteorologist that presents the weather on TV in my local area.

https://www.actionnews5.com/authors/erin-thomas/
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Pete Svarrior on January 03, 2022, 03:21:39 PM
Not sure i understand your question as the weatherman that present weather forecasts in my local area on TV are Meteorologists.
If you're telling the truth, you're exceptionally lucky. Generally, weather presenters are paid actors with only the most rudimentary of training. There is no requirement for them to hold any qualification in meteorology, and the pay is too low to be attractive to those overqualified.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: GoldCashew on January 03, 2022, 03:22:56 PM
Not sure i understand your question as the weatherman that present weather forecasts in my local area on TV are Meteorologists.
If you're telling the truth, you're exceptionally lucky. Generally, weather presenters are paid actors with only the most rudimentary of training. There is no requirement for them to hold any qualification in meteorology, and the pay is too low to be attractive to those overqualified.

Here is a Meteorologist that presents the weather on TV in my local area.

https://www.actionnews5.com/authors/erin-thomas/

Do you need more examples?
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: GoldCashew on January 03, 2022, 03:26:16 PM
This is another Meteorologist. His name is Bob Ryan and he presented the weather on TV in the Washington DC / Maryland area. I remember him on the news when I was growing up in the DC / Maryland area. Bob is now retired.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Ryan_(meteorologist)
 
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Pete Svarrior on January 03, 2022, 03:27:06 PM
Here is a Meteorologist that presents the weather on TV in my local area.

https://www.actionnews5.com/authors/erin-thomas/
According to Erin's LinkedIn profile, she is a broadcaster, and a current student of meteorology at an online college. It is also notable that she was a weather presenter before she commenced her studies. An excellent example.

Do you need more examples?
I don't need examples. I'm just informing you that you're mistaken about the credentials expected of TV presenters. You do not need to get defensive about it - a quick glance at Wikipedia would be more productive.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: GoldCashew on January 03, 2022, 03:32:31 PM
Here is a Meteorologist that presents the weather on TV in my local area.

https://www.actionnews5.com/authors/erin-thomas/
According to Erin's LinkedIn profile, she is a broadcaster, and a current student of meteorology at an online college.

Do you need more examples?
I don't need examples. I'm just informing you that you're mistaken about the credentials expected of TV presenters. You do not need to get defensive about it - a quick glance at Wikipedia would be more productive.


Not defensive. Just correcting your erroneous claim.

A quick glance at Wikipedia would indeed be more productive; Meteorologist Bob Ryan's Wikipedia page is attached in my above post.

Here is some more info. about him.
https://northernvirginiamag.com/culture/culture-features/2019/03/26/bob-ryan-talks-meteorology-retirement-and-his-shot-on-the-today-show/
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Pete Svarrior on January 03, 2022, 03:37:59 PM
Not defensive. Just correcting your erroneous claim.
It's not erroneous, and I once again invite you to have a quick glance at Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_presenter).

Of particular note may be the following words from the lede: There are no basic qualifications to become a weather presenter; depending on the country and the media, it can range from an introduction to meteorology for a television host to a diploma in meteorology from a recognized university. Therefore a weather presenter is not to be confused with a meteorologist, or weather forecaster, the holder of a diploma in meteorology.

Your first example was spot-on. A woman who presented the weather for over half a decade before she took up formal education in meteorology, and who was sadly laid off from her position 9 months ago (unqualified people are disposable). I'm glad that she's found a new place to work and is establishing herself in the field she clearly cares about, but her story does not solidify your case.

A quick glance at Wikipedia would indeed be more productive; Meteorologist Bob Ryan's Wikipedia page is attached in my above post.
You should pay attention to what I said. I didn't say that meteorologists [not capitalised, it's not a proper noun] never present the weather. I said it happens rarely, and that no qualifications in meteorology are usually required.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: WTF_Seriously on January 03, 2022, 04:29:58 PM
You should pay attention to what I said. I didn't say that meteorologists [not capitalised, it's not a proper noun] never present the weather. I said it happens rarely, and that no qualifications in meteorology are usually required.

Just a quick glance at my local weather folks and it appears that a 'certificate of broadcast meteorology' is a fairly common thing (3 of the 4 I looked at in 2 minutes on the Google) here in the states.  I guess it's something overseen by the American Meteorological Society.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Pete Svarrior on January 03, 2022, 04:33:16 PM
Just a quick glance at my local weather folks and it appears that a 'certificate of broadcast meteorology' is a fairly common thing (3 of the 4 I looked at in 2 minutes on the Google) here in the states.  I guess it's something overseen by the American Meteorological Society.
Yes, the article I provided mentions that, and explicitly stresses that it's not required, though desirable if you want to progress within the profession.

I'm surprised that people are so up in arms about this. It's okay. They're people who's job is to effectively communicate the weather to others. They don't need to be scientists or researchers.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Tom Bishop on January 03, 2022, 08:31:20 PM
Tom,

Given that you believe forecasting the weather is a scam and thus are presenting a theory for a conspiracy occuring, a few critical thought questions:

1) From this assertion, what would be the motivation for news weatherman to be lying and scamming the public?

2) If weathermens motivation is money, how are they making money from this? Are insurance companies secretly paying weathermen to lie?

3) Do you believe weatherman (i.e. on the news) are paid actors?

4) Do you believe weatherman go into college or university thinking that predicting weather is possible but then when they are about to graduate or are then hired by weather companies they are then told in secret that everything they learned is a lie and a scam? Are they paid to keep the big secret going and their fake careers going? Who pays them?

5) Given your belief that forecasting weather is a scam and thus a theory of a conspiracy going on, do you consider yourself a conspiracy theorist or a zetetic / empirical observer?

6) How do you ensure that your beliefs in conspiracy theories don't fog up your empirical observations?

This was explained to you:

Tom - declaring that forecasting the weather has always been a scam is taking conspiratorial theory thinking to a whole new level. Besides pulling down YouTube videos, do you have any direct evidence and facts that support your conspiracy theory that predicting weather is a scam? Are Meteorologists now all liars and scammers that work in a coordinated fashion with each another on a daily basis to create fictitious weather predictions?

No, they aren't fictitious. They just aren't very good. The scam came in when society convinced you that we were a super-advanced civilization who could model gravity and the weather. We are not and can not. This is all described in the NOVA documentary I embedded above.

Scam does not necessarily mean 'entirely fake'. Scam could mean that you were scammed by society into thinking that science was better than it is.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Dr David Thork on January 04, 2022, 12:38:11 AM
I've been dying of an unnamed virus for 3 days and so haven't been posting. To clarify ...

The people who happily give us shitty 3 day weather forecasts and accept no liability for them being wrong, are the same people supplying our governments with weather predictions for 10 years time and claiming the earth will heat up by 1.5 degrees and that everyone is going to die.

I'm suggesting there is a credibility gap here. We are being asked to spend billions and disrupt our way of living in more profound ways than ever before ... based on the predictions of a group of people who are famous for the inaccuracy of their predictions. If you can't see a hurricane 24 hours before it destroys half of Britain, how the hell can you predict a 1.5 degree average increase in temperature and a 1m rise in sea levels 10 years from now?
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: GoldCashew on January 04, 2022, 12:54:17 AM
I've been dying of an unnamed virus for 3 days and so haven't been posting. To clarify ...

The people who happily give us shitty 3 day weather forecasts and accept no liability for them being wrong, are the same people supplying our governments with weather predictions for 10 years time and claiming the earth will heat up by 1.5 degrees and that everyone is going to die.

I'm suggesting there is a credibility gap here. We are being asked to spend billions and disrupt our way of living in more profound ways than ever before ... based on the predictions of a group of people who are famous for the inaccuracy of their predictions. If you can't see a hurricane 24 hours before it destroys half of Britain, how the hell can you predict a 1.5 degree average increase in temperature and a 1m rise in sea levels 10 years from now?


What about the people who happily give us great 3 day weather forecasts and accept no liability for them being right? These would also be the same people supplying our governments with weather predictions.

Surely there are 3 day weather forecasts that exist that are right.

As I mentioned earlier it was predicted that we would see record highs in my local area of 70 - 75F over a few days last week. This turned out to be accurate.
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Iceman on January 04, 2022, 01:07:31 AM
If only more meteorologists were involved in climate science! Actually that might not be a great thing, because climate change is very different than weather forecasting.

If you want to start a thread about climate change branding/marketing/education, great - there’s a very interesting set of issues and some serious problems to be discussed there, but keep it out of this thread because it’s just muddying the waters
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Dr David Thork on January 04, 2022, 01:21:10 AM
If only more meteorologists were involved in climate science! Actually that might not be a great thing, because climate change is very different than weather forecasting.
The British government gets all its climate predictions from the met office. The same people that do the weather using equally dubious prediction modelling.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Iceman on January 04, 2022, 02:36:50 AM
Fair point about staff at the metoffice. +1 for you there.

Global climate models are built on a lot more than just weather data, but I don’t have the energy to look into all the partnering organizations right now (pages like from the link you provided like sea ice and sea level rise).
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Kangaroony on January 11, 2022, 08:52:41 AM
...Generally, weather presenters are paid actors with only the most rudimentary of training. There is no requirement for them to hold any qualification in meteorology, and the pay is too low to be attractive to those overqualified.

This is a very broad generalisation Pete.  I can list a few Australian TV weather presenters
who're actual meteorologists straight off the top of my head:

Dave Brown,  Jane Bunn,  Tony Auden,  Rob Gell,  Nate Byrne.

And of course the weather presenters are "paid".  Why wouldn't they be?    Can you please
list a few US weather presenters who are merely actors, with no meteorological training?
You also seen to be implying that qualified meteorological individuals who choose to present
the TV weather are "overqualified" whilst also implying they should be so qualified. 

Where exactly do you stand on this?
Title: Re: Weather forecasts
Post by: Pete Svarrior on January 11, 2022, 09:14:56 AM
This is a very broad generalisation Pete.  I can list a few Australian TV weather presenters
Yes, you can. You can also read the conversation that followed my statement, in which we covered the fact that something happening "rarely" does not mean it doesn't happen at all, and in which I explained that presenting examples wouldn't help.

You really need to read before you post.

And of course the weather presenters are "paid".  Why wouldn't they be?
Where on Earth did you get the idea that they shouldn't be?

Can you please
list a few US weather presenters who are merely actors, with no meteorological training?
No, for a few reasons. Firstly, I clearly stated that they receive some rudimentary training. Secondly, I'm not gonna trawl through foreign TV stations' payrolls just to satisfy your whim. I already substantiated my general claim.

whilst also implying they should be so qualified.
I said no such thing. I also expressly stated the opposite (https://forum.tfes.org/index.php?topic=19014.msg255374#msg255374).

Where exactly do you stand on this?
Why do I need to "stand" anywhere on anything? I corrected a factual error in a post. This isn't some complex worldview with deep nuances. Weather presenters are, generally, not meteorologists. This is irrespective of the fact that meteorologists can present the weather, and that they do so sometimes (rarely).