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Offline stack

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #560 on: August 03, 2022, 03:20:52 PM »
I never would have guessed Kansas would vote No considering how red the state is...It's like the inverse of 2020...



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Offline crutonius

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #561 on: August 03, 2022, 03:53:16 PM »
Obviously Kansas doesn't represent America.  It's much worse than that.  Kansas represents the part of America that would theoretically be all for repealing anything that would keep abortion legal.
Would you care to elucidate?

Sure.  But I think Stack probably beat me to it.

The GOP has made the eradication of abortion one of their main long term goals for decades.  They assumed that the majority of Americans would be behind this.  But if Kansas is any indication then really only Sharia Republicans support this.

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Offline xasop

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #562 on: August 03, 2022, 03:56:16 PM »
I never would have guessed Kansas would vote No considering how red the state is...It's like the inverse of 2020...
It's almost like a two-candidate election is an atrocious way to represent nuance in political beliefs.
when you try to mock anyone while also running the flat earth society. Lol

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Offline stack

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #563 on: August 03, 2022, 04:16:31 PM »
I never would have guessed Kansas would vote No considering how red the state is...It's like the inverse of 2020...
It's almost like a two-candidate election is an atrocious way to represent nuance in political beliefs.

I kind of agree. But I wouldn't consider abortion rights, or the removal of, to be a nuance in political beliefs. It seems to be a major part of the GOP platform (Abortion falls under the GOP platform 5th Amendment - Out of 10 - titled "Protecting Human Life").
And Kansas seems to be a predominantly red state - The Kansas 2020 House and Senate races were very GOP leaning as well as the Presidential race.

I think the point is that a very Red state doesn't appear to be entirely aligned with the GOP platform.


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Offline xasop

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #564 on: August 03, 2022, 04:21:15 PM »
I think the point is that a very Red state doesn't appear to be entirely aligned with the GOP platform.
Indeed — in a two-party system, it only needs to find the GOP's platform very slightly less abhorrent than the Democrats'.
when you try to mock anyone while also running the flat earth society. Lol

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Offline stack

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #565 on: August 03, 2022, 04:30:03 PM »
I think the point is that a very Red state doesn't appear to be entirely aligned with the GOP platform.
Indeed — in a two-party system, it only needs to find the GOP's platform very slightly less abhorrent than the Democrats'.

Agreed, the difference is wafer thin on some issues.

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #566 on: August 03, 2022, 04:50:49 PM »
I never would have guessed Kansas would vote No considering how red the state is...It's like the inverse of 2020...




It looks like alot but most of that red is farmland.  Low population density.
Example.  Rice county (a random county I picked) has a population of like 9,500 people over 1,884 kmsq.


For contrast, I grew up in Orange Couny, New York.
Area: 2,100 kmsq
Population: 404,500.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Offline stack

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #567 on: August 03, 2022, 05:50:42 PM »
True, especially in western Kansas. Kansas City pop is about 500k and it looks like that area is decidedly Blue. What's interesting is that Wichita, pop approx 400k is decidedly Red along with basically the entirety of the rest of the State.

One would probably have to look at the make-up of all the red counties, get the No's versus Yes's votes cast, to really see if it was a Kansas City thing or a Kansas thing.

Considering a 59% to 41% count, that large of a spread leads me to believe it was not just a Kansas City thing, but a Kansas thing.

Edit - From 538:



Definitely more of an urban thing, though interesting to see a sort of mix out in the hinterlands.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2022, 05:59:10 PM by stack »

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Offline Rushy

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #568 on: August 03, 2022, 06:02:29 PM »
Most of the nation would probably end up voting similarly to Kansas if given the direct-democratic option of doing it. There simply aren't that many people in any given state that strongly oppose abortion rights.

Pew Research says there's only 8% of the country that want to flat-out make abortion illegal in all cases, only another 29% want it to be illegal with a few exceptions. That's 37% "net illegal" abortion opinions. Considering the Kansas vote was during the Republican primary, I'd imagine the majority of US states would have the same outcome.

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/05/06/americas-abortion-quandary/

Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #569 on: August 03, 2022, 06:15:40 PM »
"Mr Biden said the result showed "the majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion". - Evidently, the BBC thinks like Biden (for shame), that Kansans represent all of citizens of the US.
Doesn’t basically every poll show that Americans are largely pro choice?
Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"

Offline Action80

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #570 on: August 03, 2022, 07:14:59 PM »
"Mr Biden said the result showed "the majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion". - Evidently, the BBC thinks like Biden (for shame), that Kansans represent all of citizens of the US.
Doesn’t basically every poll show that Americans are largely pro choice?
Basically, every poll is taken from areas where the population is most dense.
It's so hard to have faith in humanity when they do shit like this.

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Offline stack

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #571 on: August 03, 2022, 07:40:35 PM »
"Mr Biden said the result showed "the majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion". - Evidently, the BBC thinks like Biden (for shame), that Kansans represent all of citizens of the US.
Doesn’t basically every poll show that Americans are largely pro choice?
Basically, every poll is taken from areas where the population is most dense.

I don't think that is entirely true. From Pew:

Most of our U.S. surveys are conducted on the American Trends Panel (ATP), the Center’s national survey panel of over 10,000 randomly selected U.S. adults. ATP participants are recruited offline using random sampling from the U.S. Postal Service’s residential address file. Respondents complete the surveys online using smartphones, tablets or desktop devices. We provide tablets and data plans to adults without home internet.

Our surveys are representative of the entire adult population of the United States and accurately account for the full population’s diversity by age, gender, race and ethnicity, region, and socioeconomic factors such as education levels, household income and employment status.


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Offline junker

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #572 on: August 03, 2022, 07:49:38 PM »
kansas republican voters were probably just confused by the wording of the ballot measure

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Offline crutonius

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #573 on: August 03, 2022, 09:02:07 PM »
There was a story about confusing wording but I don't think it was about the ballot measure.  I think it was some marketing firm in Nevada that was pushing some PR blitz where they misrepresented what the amendment was intended to do.

Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #574 on: August 03, 2022, 09:11:47 PM »
Basically, every poll is taken from areas where the population is most dense.
That’s a yes, isn’t it?

The areas where the population is less dense are often the areas where the population is most dense…
Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #575 on: August 03, 2022, 09:34:18 PM »
"Mr Biden said the result showed "the majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion". - Evidently, the BBC thinks like Biden (for shame), that Kansans represent all of citizens of the US.
Doesn’t basically every poll show that Americans are largely pro choice?
Basically, every poll is taken from areas where the population is most dense.

In fairness, he's not entirely wromg.
Random sampling means there is a higher chance of getting someone from a high dense area vs a low one.  Tho you can adjust polls so they do random sampling of target regions to minimize that problem.  But only so many people you should poll per area and if the area has like 1,000 people, well... No need to poll more than one or two.
But a city with a few million?  Need to poll a several hundred.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Offline Rama Set

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #576 on: August 03, 2022, 10:56:26 PM »
"Mr Biden said the result showed "the majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion". - Evidently, the BBC thinks like Biden (for shame), that Kansans represent all of citizens of the US.
Doesn’t basically every poll show that Americans are largely pro choice?
Basically, every poll is taken from areas where the population is most dense.

In fairness, he's not entirely wromg.
Random sampling means there is a higher chance of getting someone from a high dense area vs a low one.  Tho you can adjust polls so they do random sampling of target regions to minimize that problem.  But only so many people you should poll per area and if the area has like 1,000 people, well... No need to poll more than one or two.
But a city with a few million?  Need to poll a several hundred.

I’m not sure Lackey’s point is fair because he is asserting that polls over sample people living in cities without any evidence.
Th*rk is the worst person on this website.

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Offline markjo

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #577 on: August 04, 2022, 12:49:48 AM »
I think that it's pretty well accepted by now that it's pretty hard to find a poll or survey that isn't biased in one way or another depending on the agenda of whoever is sponsoring, conducting and analyzing said poll.
https://study.com/academy/lesson/bias-in-polls-and-surveys.html
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Offline Action80

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #578 on: August 04, 2022, 07:24:46 AM »
"Mr Biden said the result showed "the majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion". - Evidently, the BBC thinks like Biden (for shame), that Kansans represent all of citizens of the US.
Doesn’t basically every poll show that Americans are largely pro choice?
Basically, every poll is taken from areas where the population is most dense.

I don't think that is entirely true. From Pew:

Most of our U.S. surveys are conducted on the American Trends Panel (ATP), the Center’s national survey panel of over 10,000 randomly selected U.S. adults. ATP participants are recruited offline using random sampling from the U.S. Postal Service’s residential address file. Respondents complete the surveys online using smartphones, tablets or desktop devices. We provide tablets and data plans to adults without home internet.

Our surveys are representative of the entire adult population of the United States and accurately account for the full population’s diversity by age, gender, race and ethnicity, region, and socioeconomic factors such as education levels, household income and employment status.
Congratulations on affirming my use of the word, "basically."
It's so hard to have faith in humanity when they do shit like this.

"I hate the police so I'm gonna burn a Walgreen's!"

Offline Action80

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Re: Bye Bye Abortion
« Reply #579 on: August 04, 2022, 07:27:47 AM »
"Mr Biden said the result showed "the majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion". - Evidently, the BBC thinks like Biden (for shame), that Kansans represent all of citizens of the US.
Doesn’t basically every poll show that Americans are largely pro choice?
Basically, every poll is taken from areas where the population is most dense.

In fairness, he's not entirely wromg.
Random sampling means there is a higher chance of getting someone from a high dense area vs a low one.  Tho you can adjust polls so they do random sampling of target regions to minimize that problem.  But only so many people you should poll per area and if the area has like 1,000 people, well... No need to poll more than one or two.
But a city with a few million?  Need to poll a several hundred.

I’m not sure Lackey’s point is fair because he is asserting that polls over sample people living in cities without any evidence.
Polls cannot help but oversample populations with higher population density.
It's so hard to have faith in humanity when they do shit like this.

"I hate the police so I'm gonna burn a Walgreen's!"