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Offline Roundy

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #40 on: December 31, 2021, 10:35:43 PM »
Places like The Weather Channel have been their own worst enemy in terms of public perception of how well they perform their duty of reporting the weather. A few years back, their app rolled out a feature that would send you a notification on your phone letting you know rain would begin in, for example, 10 minutes. The problem with that is, when they send that alert and it's either already started raining OR 10 minutes pass and the rain has not yet begun, it's an immediate reminder that they, yet again, got something wrong. A thing that I didn't even ask them to communicate. A truly self-inflicted wound.

"I'm Karen Smith, it's 68 degrees and there's a" (fondles boobs) "30% chance it's already raining."
Dr. Frank is a physicist. He says it's impossible. So it's impossible.
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Offline jimster

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #41 on: December 31, 2021, 11:01:49 PM »
Weather forecasting was invented by a guy in a trench in WW1, as I recall. He had the idea that if he knew the temp and air pressure of every cubic foot of the earth's atmosphere, he could predict the temperature and pressure in the next moment in each cubic foot. In practical reality, we don't have that, but we can come close enough for some useful approximation that is not 100% perfect, but way better than pure chance. Data processing power is also a limiting factor. At UCLA in 1970s, we had one of 10 IBM 360 Model 91 computers, for a brief moment, biggest in the world, certainly on the west coast. It had 4 MB of memory when 8 KB was common and 64 KB was big. You had to finish your programming lab by midnight, because then they used it to run the next day's weather forecast.

It also depends on where you live. I live on the west coast where our weather comes from the pacific ocean, thousands of miles of similar moderate temperature and no mountains. You can watch storms come in, they lok like multiple waves of commas or parenthesis moving in slowly changing formations. Very well organized. They break up somewhat at the coast, but after the storm crosses the continental divide, it whacks into the swirl of weather from north pole, atlantic, gulf of Mexico, and swirls. East coast is harder to be accurate.

They called the storm of the last 2 weeks here, pretty much nailed it, predicted record snow in the sierra, happened just when they said. Weather reports are not always accurate, but way better than wild guess. Weather in Tahoe is the weather from San Francisco, 12 hours later.

The forecast here is almost always close, often right on. The rain might be an hour early or an hour late, it night be a little less or more than predicted. If they spent the money to grid the pacific ocean with weather ships and spent much more supercomputer time running the model, it would be more accurate. Not done because $$$$$$. And the money gets bigger with more accuracy, diminishing returns.

**************************************************************************************************************************************************

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Automatic_Weather_Stations_Project

Weather forecasters need to look at the weather around them and make global weather maps, using satellite photos, and matching that up with earthbound data. This extends everywhere in every direction, there is no edge.

If you postulate FE with an edge, either the weather forecasting system is part of a conspiracy, or they are actually complete morons, or there is a giant industry of faking data, which has to be continuous 24/7/365. The Antarctic weather stations and their data must be faked in a way that matches up with the fake satellite pics. The storm coming onto one side of the disk would have to match one leaving the other side. Weather forcasters fundamentally have to know the shape of the earth. Or they are either genius frauds, or morons making occasional lucky guesses.

That would be something, wish I could know more about how this works on FE. Perhaps a new branch of weather studies, what happens with weather up against the dome. We know only one thing - weather at the south pole works very differently on FE vs RE.

"Electromagnetic Acceleration" sounds so much more sciency than "bendy light".

Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #42 on: January 02, 2022, 06:07:09 PM »
Weather prediction has always been a scam, right up there with gravitational physics...

Personally, here in Australia, I've never once queried the weather sciences and/or both long
and short term forecasts as being any sort of deliberate "scam". 

In fact the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has shown over more than a century to be accurate
to around a 97% rate as far as daily maximum and minimum temperatures are concerned.  It's
also accurately predicted the recently past El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) period of the
eastern Pacific Ocean, which Australia borders. 

Currently, La Niña conditions continue in the Pacific. Climate models suggest this La Niña will persist
until the late southern hemisphere summer or early autumn 2022. La Niña events increase the chance
of above average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia during summer.  And if one
checks rainfall data for Australia's eastern seaboard, it'll be seen that rainfall figures have been, in
many locations, well above the long-term average, or in fact record falls.

—Tom, do you have any evidence that weather predictions are a deliberate scam, who would be perpetrating
them, and for what specific reasons?

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #43 on: January 03, 2022, 02:01:19 AM »
These questions were already asked and answered. Go back and read them and address the responses.

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #44 on: January 03, 2022, 02:18:39 PM »
These questions were already asked and answered. Go back and read them and address the responses.


Tom,

Given that you believe forecasting the weather is a scam and thus are presenting a theory for a conspiracy occuring, a few critical thought questions:

1) From this assertion, what would be the motivation for news weatherman to be lying and scamming the public?

2) If weathermens motivation is money, how are they making money from this? Are insurance companies secretly paying weathermen to lie?

3) Do you believe weatherman (i.e. on the news) are paid actors?

4) Do you believe weatherman go into college or university thinking that predicting weather is possible but then when they are about to graduate or are then hired by weather companies they are then told in secret that everything they learned is a lie and a scam? Are they paid to keep the big secret going and their fake careers going? Who pays them?

5) Given your belief that forecasting weather is a scam and thus a theory of a conspiracy going on, do you consider yourself a conspiracy theorist or a zetetic / empirical observer?

6) How do you ensure that your beliefs in conspiracy theories don't fog up your empirical observations?
« Last Edit: January 03, 2022, 02:23:51 PM by GoldCashew »

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Offline Pete Svarrior

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #45 on: January 03, 2022, 02:40:20 PM »
3) Do you believe weatherman (i.e. on the news) are paid actors?
One moment. What else do you expect the people who present the weather in the news to be? They are very rarely meteorologists.
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Offline GoldCashew

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #46 on: January 03, 2022, 03:17:37 PM »
3) Do you believe weatherman (i.e. on the news) are paid actors?
One moment. What else do you expect the people who present the weather in the news to be? They are very rarely meteorologists.


Not sure i understand your question as the weatherman that present weather forecasts in my local area on TV are Meteorologists.

Here is a Meteorologist that presents the weather on TV in my local area.

https://www.actionnews5.com/authors/erin-thomas/
« Last Edit: January 03, 2022, 03:22:13 PM by GoldCashew »

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Offline Pete Svarrior

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #47 on: January 03, 2022, 03:21:39 PM »
Not sure i understand your question as the weatherman that present weather forecasts in my local area on TV are Meteorologists.
If you're telling the truth, you're exceptionally lucky. Generally, weather presenters are paid actors with only the most rudimentary of training. There is no requirement for them to hold any qualification in meteorology, and the pay is too low to be attractive to those overqualified.
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Offline GoldCashew

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #48 on: January 03, 2022, 03:22:56 PM »
Not sure i understand your question as the weatherman that present weather forecasts in my local area on TV are Meteorologists.
If you're telling the truth, you're exceptionally lucky. Generally, weather presenters are paid actors with only the most rudimentary of training. There is no requirement for them to hold any qualification in meteorology, and the pay is too low to be attractive to those overqualified.

Here is a Meteorologist that presents the weather on TV in my local area.

https://www.actionnews5.com/authors/erin-thomas/

Do you need more examples?

Offline GoldCashew

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #49 on: January 03, 2022, 03:26:16 PM »
This is another Meteorologist. His name is Bob Ryan and he presented the weather on TV in the Washington DC / Maryland area. I remember him on the news when I was growing up in the DC / Maryland area. Bob is now retired.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Ryan_(meteorologist)
 

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Offline Pete Svarrior

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #50 on: January 03, 2022, 03:27:06 PM »
Here is a Meteorologist that presents the weather on TV in my local area.

https://www.actionnews5.com/authors/erin-thomas/
According to Erin's LinkedIn profile, she is a broadcaster, and a current student of meteorology at an online college. It is also notable that she was a weather presenter before she commenced her studies. An excellent example.

Do you need more examples?
I don't need examples. I'm just informing you that you're mistaken about the credentials expected of TV presenters. You do not need to get defensive about it - a quick glance at Wikipedia would be more productive.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2022, 03:32:25 PM by Pete Svarrior »
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Offline GoldCashew

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #51 on: January 03, 2022, 03:32:31 PM »
Here is a Meteorologist that presents the weather on TV in my local area.

https://www.actionnews5.com/authors/erin-thomas/
According to Erin's LinkedIn profile, she is a broadcaster, and a current student of meteorology at an online college.

Do you need more examples?
I don't need examples. I'm just informing you that you're mistaken about the credentials expected of TV presenters. You do not need to get defensive about it - a quick glance at Wikipedia would be more productive.


Not defensive. Just correcting your erroneous claim.

A quick glance at Wikipedia would indeed be more productive; Meteorologist Bob Ryan's Wikipedia page is attached in my above post.

Here is some more info. about him.
https://northernvirginiamag.com/culture/culture-features/2019/03/26/bob-ryan-talks-meteorology-retirement-and-his-shot-on-the-today-show/
« Last Edit: January 03, 2022, 03:34:13 PM by GoldCashew »

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Offline Pete Svarrior

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #52 on: January 03, 2022, 03:37:59 PM »
Not defensive. Just correcting your erroneous claim.
It's not erroneous, and I once again invite you to have a quick glance at Wikipedia.

Of particular note may be the following words from the lede: There are no basic qualifications to become a weather presenter; depending on the country and the media, it can range from an introduction to meteorology for a television host to a diploma in meteorology from a recognized university. Therefore a weather presenter is not to be confused with a meteorologist, or weather forecaster, the holder of a diploma in meteorology.

Your first example was spot-on. A woman who presented the weather for over half a decade before she took up formal education in meteorology, and who was sadly laid off from her position 9 months ago (unqualified people are disposable). I'm glad that she's found a new place to work and is establishing herself in the field she clearly cares about, but her story does not solidify your case.

A quick glance at Wikipedia would indeed be more productive; Meteorologist Bob Ryan's Wikipedia page is attached in my above post.
You should pay attention to what I said. I didn't say that meteorologists [not capitalised, it's not a proper noun] never present the weather. I said it happens rarely, and that no qualifications in meteorology are usually required.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2022, 03:39:49 PM by Pete Svarrior »
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Offline WTF_Seriously

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #53 on: January 03, 2022, 04:29:58 PM »
You should pay attention to what I said. I didn't say that meteorologists [not capitalised, it's not a proper noun] never present the weather. I said it happens rarely, and that no qualifications in meteorology are usually required.

Just a quick glance at my local weather folks and it appears that a 'certificate of broadcast meteorology' is a fairly common thing (3 of the 4 I looked at in 2 minutes on the Google) here in the states.  I guess it's something overseen by the American Meteorological Society.
Flat-Earthers seem to have a very low standard of evidence for what they want to believe but an impossibly high standard of evidence for what they don’t want to believe.

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Offline Pete Svarrior

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #54 on: January 03, 2022, 04:33:16 PM »
Just a quick glance at my local weather folks and it appears that a 'certificate of broadcast meteorology' is a fairly common thing (3 of the 4 I looked at in 2 minutes on the Google) here in the states.  I guess it's something overseen by the American Meteorological Society.
Yes, the article I provided mentions that, and explicitly stresses that it's not required, though desirable if you want to progress within the profession.

I'm surprised that people are so up in arms about this. It's okay. They're people who's job is to effectively communicate the weather to others. They don't need to be scientists or researchers.
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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #55 on: January 03, 2022, 08:31:20 PM »
Tom,

Given that you believe forecasting the weather is a scam and thus are presenting a theory for a conspiracy occuring, a few critical thought questions:

1) From this assertion, what would be the motivation for news weatherman to be lying and scamming the public?

2) If weathermens motivation is money, how are they making money from this? Are insurance companies secretly paying weathermen to lie?

3) Do you believe weatherman (i.e. on the news) are paid actors?

4) Do you believe weatherman go into college or university thinking that predicting weather is possible but then when they are about to graduate or are then hired by weather companies they are then told in secret that everything they learned is a lie and a scam? Are they paid to keep the big secret going and their fake careers going? Who pays them?

5) Given your belief that forecasting weather is a scam and thus a theory of a conspiracy going on, do you consider yourself a conspiracy theorist or a zetetic / empirical observer?

6) How do you ensure that your beliefs in conspiracy theories don't fog up your empirical observations?

This was explained to you:

Tom - declaring that forecasting the weather has always been a scam is taking conspiratorial theory thinking to a whole new level. Besides pulling down YouTube videos, do you have any direct evidence and facts that support your conspiracy theory that predicting weather is a scam? Are Meteorologists now all liars and scammers that work in a coordinated fashion with each another on a daily basis to create fictitious weather predictions?

No, they aren't fictitious. They just aren't very good. The scam came in when society convinced you that we were a super-advanced civilization who could model gravity and the weather. We are not and can not. This is all described in the NOVA documentary I embedded above.

Scam does not necessarily mean 'entirely fake'. Scam could mean that you were scammed by society into thinking that science was better than it is.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2022, 11:16:50 PM by Tom Bishop »

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Offline Dr David Thork

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #56 on: January 04, 2022, 12:38:11 AM »
I've been dying of an unnamed virus for 3 days and so haven't been posting. To clarify ...

The people who happily give us shitty 3 day weather forecasts and accept no liability for them being wrong, are the same people supplying our governments with weather predictions for 10 years time and claiming the earth will heat up by 1.5 degrees and that everyone is going to die.

I'm suggesting there is a credibility gap here. We are being asked to spend billions and disrupt our way of living in more profound ways than ever before ... based on the predictions of a group of people who are famous for the inaccuracy of their predictions. If you can't see a hurricane 24 hours before it destroys half of Britain, how the hell can you predict a 1.5 degree average increase in temperature and a 1m rise in sea levels 10 years from now?
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Offline GoldCashew

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #57 on: January 04, 2022, 12:54:17 AM »
I've been dying of an unnamed virus for 3 days and so haven't been posting. To clarify ...

The people who happily give us shitty 3 day weather forecasts and accept no liability for them being wrong, are the same people supplying our governments with weather predictions for 10 years time and claiming the earth will heat up by 1.5 degrees and that everyone is going to die.

I'm suggesting there is a credibility gap here. We are being asked to spend billions and disrupt our way of living in more profound ways than ever before ... based on the predictions of a group of people who are famous for the inaccuracy of their predictions. If you can't see a hurricane 24 hours before it destroys half of Britain, how the hell can you predict a 1.5 degree average increase in temperature and a 1m rise in sea levels 10 years from now?


What about the people who happily give us great 3 day weather forecasts and accept no liability for them being right? These would also be the same people supplying our governments with weather predictions.

Surely there are 3 day weather forecasts that exist that are right.

As I mentioned earlier it was predicted that we would see record highs in my local area of 70 - 75F over a few days last week. This turned out to be accurate.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2022, 12:57:18 AM by GoldCashew »

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Offline Iceman

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #58 on: January 04, 2022, 01:07:31 AM »
If only more meteorologists were involved in climate science! Actually that might not be a great thing, because climate change is very different than weather forecasting.

If you want to start a thread about climate change branding/marketing/education, great - there’s a very interesting set of issues and some serious problems to be discussed there, but keep it out of this thread because it’s just muddying the waters

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #59 on: January 04, 2022, 01:21:10 AM »
If only more meteorologists were involved in climate science! Actually that might not be a great thing, because climate change is very different than weather forecasting.
The British government gets all its climate predictions from the met office. The same people that do the weather using equally dubious prediction modelling.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp
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