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Offline Dr David Thork

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #20 on: December 30, 2021, 08:50:07 PM »
Thork's OP however, juxtaposing 2 conflicting prediction of what is happening "next week" is a farce.  Yes, its the UK, so its cold one day and warm the next. 

Of course, part of the problem is that however many dollars, how much technology and expertise we throw at a question, some of the population can only understand the answer if its provided on a hand-held as a 125x125 pixel tile from a pay-per-click tabloid site.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that I know more about predicting weather than anyone else who visits this website. I have studied metrology extensively and passed numerous qualifications in the dark art.

I did metrology at A-level geography.
I did it again and in more depth when studying aerospace engineering. (A lot comes up with International Standard Atmososphere crap with maths and calcs).
I then did it again when I got my commercial pilots license at got 96% in the exam. That was more focused on cloud formations, winds and general weather predition from data.

Anyhoooooooo .... the thing I learned from all of that, is that weather prediction hasn't really improved in 100 years. The only thing that has improved is the speed at which data can be sent so you get your data points almost immediately meaning you can make a guess quicker.

But we get the same assumptions ...
Hurricane tracking, for example, has gotten a lot better since then.
It hasn't. We get data from far away sooner ... but what we do with it hasn't changed at all. The "science" that you blindly trust will let you down as often as not. Just beware placing blind trust in what scientists tell you. That's all the thread is about. Scientists tell you lies. Whether is Fauchi and Pfizer, the met office and the climate change brigade, or those who insist the earth is round. Lies, lies and more lies.
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Offline stack

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #21 on: December 30, 2021, 09:00:41 PM »
Scientists tell you lies.

All scientists are liars?

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Offline RonJ

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #22 on: December 30, 2021, 09:03:58 PM »
Also remember that weather forecasters need weather observations to build their models.  About 70% of the earth’s surface is covered with water and the number of weather stations there is lacking.  Commercial ships carry weather stations aboard and transmit the readings about twice a day back to shore.  Unfortunately, the readings they provide don’t cover the whole ocean on a regular predictable basis.  Any readings obtained from ships are spotty. 
« Last Edit: December 30, 2021, 09:10:22 PM by RonJ »
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Offline Dr David Thork

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #23 on: December 30, 2021, 09:47:46 PM »
Scientists tell you lies.

All scientists are liars?
Depends on the industry. All climate scientists are liars for example. Most coronavirus scientists are liars. Some sports scientists are liars.
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Offline GoldCashew

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #24 on: December 30, 2021, 09:56:43 PM »
Scientists tell you lies.

All scientists are liars?
Depends on the industry. All climate scientists are liars for example. Most coronavirus scientists are liars. Some sports scientists are liars.


What is a Meterologists / Climate Scientists motivation or benefit for lying about the weather?

Do you believe that there is a Weather Forecast Conspiracy just as you believe in a Space Travel Conspiracy?

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Offline Dr David Thork

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #25 on: December 30, 2021, 09:59:35 PM »
What is a Meterologists / Climate Scientists motivation or benefit for lying about the weather?
If you are a climate scientist who does not play the 'end of the world' game, you are shown the door. It's an industry, driven by profits. And those who want the results will only pay for reports that say climate change is real. So make those or find something else to do. They don't sell accurate climate predictions. They sell doom porn. That's the industry.

Ergo, the climate change scientists that are left are the ones prepared to lie for money. Anyone honest is weeded out almost immediately.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2021, 10:01:14 PM by Dr David Thork »
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Offline stack

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #26 on: December 30, 2021, 10:13:54 PM »
Scientists tell you lies.

All scientists are liars?

Depends on the industry. All climate scientists are liars for example.

Even the 3% of climate scientists who say climate change isn't an issue? They are liars too?

Most coronavirus scientists are liars.

This is based on your vast knowledge of virology, biology, medicine & pharmacology?

Some sports scientists are liars.

What's a "sports scientist"?

Lastly, when you pilot a plane, do you refuse to check the weather forecasts prior to taking flight?

Second lastly, how much do climate scientists make off of doom porn? Is it lucrative? If so, I'm thinking of a career change.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2021, 10:15:57 PM by stack »

Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #27 on: December 30, 2021, 10:39:59 PM »
What is a Meterologists / Climate Scientists motivation or benefit for lying about the weather?
If you are a climate scientist who does not play the 'end of the world' game, you are shown the door. It's an industry, driven by profits.
I never understand this argument. You know what there's a lot of profit in? Oil. Have you seen Dubai? There would surely be a lot of money in downplaying climate change. Also, according to this dude a lot of the old climate models actually weren't that far off. They've just been deliberately misrepresented by people with a certain agenda

Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

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Offline GoldCashew

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #28 on: December 30, 2021, 10:42:12 PM »
What is a Meterologists / Climate Scientists motivation or benefit for lying about the weather?
If you are a climate scientist who does not play the 'end of the world' game, you are shown the door. It's an industry, driven by profits. And those who want the results will only pay for reports that say climate change is real. So make those or find something else to do. They don't sell accurate climate predictions. They sell doom porn. That's the industry.

Ergo, the climate change scientists that are left are the ones prepared to lie for money. Anyone honest is weeded out almost immediately.


I'm confused.

At first this thread was about weather predictions. Tom jumped in and added that predicting the weather was a scam.

You are now switching gears and talking about climate change scientists.

I think we are still on the topic of the notion that predicting weather is a scam, i.e. if a Meteorologist on the news says that the storm conditions are likely for a Tornado to develop in the next 30 minute in this specific location that they are lying and scamming us. And so I think we were talking about how predictive technology has advanced much better from the 1980's, however still not perfect.

Do you believe Meteorologists that try to forecast and predict next week's weather are liars and trying to scam us?

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Offline Dr David Thork

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #29 on: December 30, 2021, 11:02:01 PM »
Even the 3% of climate scientists who say climate change isn't an issue? They are liars too?
I believe the lie is that 3% of climate scientists say it isn't an issue. You never ever get to hear from such people. I don't believe they actually exist on someone's payroll. If they are 3% who are perpetually unemployed ... well it makes no difference.

Most coronavirus scientists are liars.

This is based on your vast knowledge of virology, biology, medicine & pharmacology?
Based on when you say one thing, then flip flop due to political pressures, yes, you are a liar. Example ... Fauchi telling people that masks don't stop the spread of coronavirus.

Some sports scientists are liars.

What's a "sports scientist"?
Quite.

Lastly, when you pilot a plane, do you refuse to check the weather forecasts prior to taking flight?

Second lastly, how much do climate scientists make off of doom porn? Is it lucrative? If so, I'm thinking of a career change.
I always checked the weather. Every single day in enormous detail. That's how I know how often the prediction is wrong.
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Offline GoldCashew

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #30 on: December 30, 2021, 11:33:31 PM »
Even the 3% of climate scientists who say climate change isn't an issue? They are liars too?
I believe the lie is that 3% of climate scientists say it isn't an issue. You never ever get to hear from such people. I don't believe they actually exist on someone's payroll. If they are 3% who are perpetually unemployed ... well it makes no difference.

Most coronavirus scientists are liars.

This is based on your vast knowledge of virology, biology, medicine & pharmacology?
Based on when you say one thing, then flip flop due to political pressures, yes, you are a liar. Example ... Fauchi telling people that masks don't stop the spread of coronavirus.

Some sports scientists are liars.

What's a "sports scientist"?
Quite.

Lastly, when you pilot a plane, do you refuse to check the weather forecasts prior to taking flight?

Second lastly, how much do climate scientists make off of doom porn? Is it lucrative? If so, I'm thinking of a career change.
I always checked the weather. Every single day in enormous detail. That's how I know how often the prediction is wrong.


I think you're telling a white lie Thork.

I fly as well and always check the weather (as of course all pilots will do; it kind of comes with the territory).

That's how I know how often such predictions help me to plan my routes as such predictions are generally accurate including about where and when turbulence can be expected.

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Offline Dr David Thork

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #31 on: December 30, 2021, 11:42:04 PM »
I think you're telling a white lie Thork.

I fly as well and always check the weather (as of course all pilots will do; it kind of comes with the territory).

That's how I know how often such predictions help me to plan my routes as such predictions are generally accurate including about where and when turbulence can be expected.
Metars are accurate. Those are direct observations made in the last hour. They are useful. If you are going for a little 1 hour pootle, use the metars from your local area. But, if you are going a long way away and will be hours in flight ... now you need a TAF. And now you are going to be reading stupid shit like PROB30 which means you have a 30% chance of something happening. Not very useful is it? Should I avoid such things 30% of the time? And the problem is, if I do avoid it, it might be in the place I went to avoid the thing in the first place and I still end up in it. But for me, by far the most unreliable information is cloud height in a TAF. And that shit will kill you IFR. I learned some very hard lessons about taking TAF information with a pinch of salt. And yet someone got paid to make that TAF. Paid well. And I can't sue them if I am forced to divert because they got it wrong.
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Offline stack

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #32 on: December 31, 2021, 12:40:10 AM »
Even the 3% of climate scientists who say climate change isn't an issue? They are liars too?
I believe the lie is that 3% of climate scientists say it isn't an issue. You never ever get to hear from such people. I don't believe they actually exist on someone's payroll. If they are 3% who are perpetually unemployed ... well it makes no difference.

Longtime Climate Science Denier Hired At NOAA

David Legates, a University of Delaware professor of climatology who has spent much of his career questioning basic tenets of climate science, has been hired for a top position at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Legates confirmed to NPR that he was recently hired as NOAA's deputy assistant secretary of commerce for observation and prediction. The position suggests that he reports directly to Neil Jacobs, the acting head of the agency that is in charge of the federal government's sprawling weather and climate prediction work.

Legates has a long history of using his position as an academic scientist to publicly cast doubt on climate science.


Hired in a top spot at NOAA, no less.

Most coronavirus scientists are liars.

This is based on your vast knowledge of virology, biology, medicine & pharmacology?
Based on when you say one thing, then flip flop due to political pressures, yes, you are a liar. Example ... Fauchi telling people that masks don't stop the spread of coronavirus.

Fauchi doesn't seem like he qualifies as "most".  "Most" would be a majority of covid scientists. I take it the most you say are liars are ones you don't agree with. Are there some that you do agree with that are liars?

Lastly, when you pilot a plane, do you refuse to check the weather forecasts prior to taking flight?

Second lastly, how much do climate scientists make off of doom porn? Is it lucrative? If so, I'm thinking of a career change.
I always checked the weather. Every single day in enormous detail. That's how I know how often the prediction is wrong.

Why would you even bother to check if you have zero confidence in it?

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Offline Iceman

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #33 on: December 31, 2021, 12:56:51 AM »
One of Thork’s better ‘throw shit and see what sticks’ threads. Started with a poorly-conceived rant about two conflicting NYE forecasts for Great Britain, now we’re on to climate deniers, evil Fauci, lying sports scientists (what!?).

Can we get this back on track or you can just admit you just got sad that you couldn’t pre-plan which leather jacket to wear to the pub on NYE.

The failure of scientists and science communicators in conveying the relevant take homes points of climate change is a thread all on its own.

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Offline Roundy

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #34 on: December 31, 2021, 12:57:24 AM »
Thork's OP however, juxtaposing 2 conflicting prediction of what is happening "next week" is a farce.  Yes, its the UK, so its cold one day and warm the next. 

Of course, part of the problem is that however many dollars, how much technology and expertise we throw at a question, some of the population can only understand the answer if its provided on a hand-held as a 125x125 pixel tile from a pay-per-click tabloid site.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that I know more about predicting weather than anyone else who visits this website. I have studied metrology extensively and passed numerous qualifications in the dark art.

I did metrology at A-level geography.
I did it again and in more depth when studying aerospace engineering.

How does having extensive schooling in the science of measurement make you an expert at predicting the weather?

I thought you might have meant meteorology and that it was a typo... but the same typo twice? By someone trying to pass himself off as an expert?

So why does your huge knowledge of metrology lead you to being better equipped to judge matters involving weather prediction?
Dr. Frank is a physicist. He says it's impossible. So it's impossible.
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Offline GoldCashew

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #35 on: December 31, 2021, 01:40:56 AM »
I think you're telling a white lie Thork.

I fly as well and always check the weather (as of course all pilots will do; it kind of comes with the territory).

That's how I know how often such predictions help me to plan my routes as such predictions are generally accurate including about where and when turbulence can be expected.
Metars are accurate. Those are direct observations made in the last hour. They are useful. If you are going for a little 1 hour pootle, use the metars from your local area. But, if you are going a long way away and will be hours in flight ... now you need a TAF. And now you are going to be reading stupid shit like PROB30 which means you have a 30% chance of something happening. Not very useful is it? Should I avoid such things 30% of the time? And the problem is, if I do avoid it, it might be in the place I went to avoid the thing in the first place and I still end up in it. But for me, by far the most unreliable information is cloud height in a TAF. And that shit will kill you IFR. I learned some very hard lessons about taking TAF information with a pinch of salt. And yet someone got paid to make that TAF. Paid well. And I can't sue them if I am forced to divert because they got it wrong.


Your difficult to follow in this particular thread about predicting weather because you are all over the place with bringing in other topics like climate change that are an entirely separate thread.

Bringing this thread back to center.... do you believe that when Meteorologists communicate weather forecasts that they are purposefully lying and scamming? (Tom stated that predicting weather is a scam).

Is my local weatherman part of a sinister plot to lie and scam the local public about the 10 day weather forecast?
« Last Edit: December 31, 2021, 01:45:54 AM by GoldCashew »

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Offline RonJ

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #36 on: December 31, 2021, 02:32:52 AM »
Before leaving a dock at a foreign country we had a weather map sent to us from a weather forecasting and weather routing service in the USA.  Then about twice a day we would get updates.  A recommended route was given with the expected weather and sea conditions posted for our route.  It wasn’t too bad.  We would always download the satellite weather maps as well for comparison.  The weather forecast was very important for our journeys of about 6200 miles across the Pacific.  Avoidance of the typhoons was always a good thing, so the weather forecasts was essential to our wellbeing. 
You can lead flat earthers to the curve but you can't make them think!

Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #37 on: December 31, 2021, 08:48:43 AM »
I don’t think weather forecasting has got worse, but people’s expectations have got higher. With all the computing power we have now people expect very granular and accurate forecasts. As Tom noted above the weather is a fundamentally chaotic system and thus impossible to predict long term. I vaguely agree they should be doing better in the short term though. I don’t know where the iPhone app gets its data but it really isn’t very good at knowing what it’s going to do in a few hours.
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TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"

Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #38 on: December 31, 2021, 04:57:38 PM »
Soooooo, where are we. 

Its New Years Eve and, if the good Meterologist-Captain-Doctor's second tile is to be believed, the UK was predicted to have temperatures today higher than Spain. 

From METARs at 16.30 utc; London City Airport = 15 C.  Malaga Airport = 14 C.  (and definitely unseasonably warm in NW England). 

Gotta say the Climate Change and Covid things have muddied the waters somewhat, so I don't honestly know where this leaves the Weather Guys' evil master-plan for world domination. 

Of course, that still leaves his first tile out in the cold (pun intended), but as the 96% scoring CPL-holder neglected to specify a timeframe more accurate than "next week", I guess we'll just have to watch the skies.  And wait. 

edit; this news just in .....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-59840877

« Last Edit: January 01, 2022, 07:25:05 AM by DuncanDoenitz »

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Offline Clyde Frog

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Re: Weather forecasts
« Reply #39 on: December 31, 2021, 10:15:40 PM »
Places like The Weather Channel have been their own worst enemy in terms of public perception of how well they perform their duty of reporting the weather. A few years back, their app rolled out a feature that would send you a notification on your phone letting you know rain would begin in, for example, 10 minutes. The problem with that is, when they send that alert and it's either already started raining OR 10 minutes pass and the rain has not yet begun, it's an immediate reminder that they, yet again, got something wrong. A thing that I didn't even ask them to communicate. A truly self-inflicted wound.