Offline Action80

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I am wondering why I do not see...
« on: April 01, 2024, 11:29:20 AM »

The upcoming total eclipse occurring in my state next Monday in this chart posted by a RE-adherent?
To be honest I am getting pretty bored of this place.

Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2024, 01:22:34 PM »
As I understand the Saros theory, if there is an eclipse in your state that is not on this table, it will be part of a different Saros Cycle; this table only refers to Saros Cycle Number 145.  Or did you think that only 16 eclipses would occur globally over a 260 year period? 

Offline Action80

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2024, 03:01:46 PM »
As I understand the Saros theory, if there is an eclipse in your state that is not on this table, it will be part of a different Saros Cycle; this table only refers to Saros Cycle Number 145.  Or did you think that only 16 eclipses would occur globally over a 260 year period?
Not at all.

I was asking for an explanation and I appreciate the answer.
To be honest I am getting pretty bored of this place.

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #3 on: April 01, 2024, 03:25:55 PM »
It's an admission that they don't have a real eclipse prediction method based on modern RE theories and are still using the Saros Cycle, an ancient pattern-based eclipse predicting scheme created by a society of Flat Earthers.

Offline Action80

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2024, 05:01:34 PM »
It's an admission that they don't have a real eclipse prediction method based on modern RE theories and are still using the Saros Cycle, an ancient pattern-based eclipse predicting scheme created by a society of Flat Earthers.
Well, that too seems to be the case.
To be honest I am getting pretty bored of this place.

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2024, 05:41:08 PM »
It's an admission that they don't have a real eclipse prediction method based on modern RE theories and are still using the Saros Cycle, an ancient pattern-based eclipse predicting scheme created by a society of Flat Earthers.
Can you show the FE method of predicting eclipse paths?
Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"

Offline Action80

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #6 on: April 02, 2024, 12:45:07 PM »
It's an admission that they don't have a real eclipse prediction method based on modern RE theories and are still using the Saros Cycle, an ancient pattern-based eclipse predicting scheme created by a society of Flat Earthers.
Can you show the FE method of predicting eclipse paths?
If the Saros cycles originated with a culture adhering to a Flat Earth system, and that is what predicts the paths, then that is the FE method.
To be honest I am getting pretty bored of this place.

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #7 on: April 08, 2024, 04:44:37 PM »
If the Saros cycles originated with a culture adhering to a Flat Earth system, and that is what predicts the paths, then that is the FE method.
Saros cycles don't predict the exact path.
This site has a list of past and future eclipses, including today's, and explains how the predictions are calculated:

https://eclipsewise.com/solar/SEhelp/de406-predictions.html

Quote
The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE406 solar system ephemeris. This ephemeris consists of computer representations of the positions, velocities and accelerations of major Solar System bodies

Doesn't sound like a FE way of doing it to me. There's a lot of people booking hotel rooms on the basis of predictions like this, I reckon we'd know about it if they were wrong.
Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"

Offline Action80

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #8 on: April 08, 2024, 07:13:26 PM »
If the Saros cycles originated with a culture adhering to a Flat Earth system, and that is what predicts the paths, then that is the FE method.
Saros cycles don't predict the exact path.
This site has a list of past and future eclipses, including today's, and explains how the predictions are calculated:

https://eclipsewise.com/solar/SEhelp/de406-predictions.html
There is nothing indicating this system is based on RE. It is simply pattern based.

Quote
The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE406 solar system ephemeris. This ephemeris consists of computer representations of the positions, velocities and accelerations of major Solar System bodies

Doesn't sound like a FE way of doing it to me. There's a lot of people booking hotel rooms on the basis of predictions like this, I reckon we'd know about it if they were wrong.
Of course they are not wrong. When you have a couple of thousand years of observing repeating patterns, you can pretty much write that down.
To be honest I am getting pretty bored of this place.

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Offline Roundy

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #9 on: April 08, 2024, 11:09:58 PM »
Saw it today. Transcendent experience, I'm so glad I traveled to Texas to see it. I don't think it really proves anything about the shape of the Earth, but it's definitely a potent reminder of how awe-inspiring (and, dare I say, magical) the universe can be.
Dr. Frank is a physicist. He says it's impossible. So it's impossible.
My friends, please remember Tom said this the next time you fall into the trap of engaging him, and thank you. :)

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #10 on: April 09, 2024, 07:56:32 AM »
There is nothing indicating this system is based on RE. It is simply pattern based.

Quote
The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE406 solar system ephemeris. This ephemeris consists of computer representations of the positions, velocities and accelerations of major Solar System bodies

And from:

https://eclipsewise.com/help/jpl-de.html

Quote
The observational data in the fits has been an evolving set, including: ranges (distances) to planets measured by radio signals from spacecraft, direct radar-ranging of planets, two-dimensional position fixes (on the plane of the sky) by VLBI of spacecraft, transit and CCD telescopic observations of planets and small bodies, and laser-ranging of retroreflectors on the Moon, among others.

Quote
Of course they are not wrong. When you have a couple of thousand years of observing repeating patterns, you can pretty much write that down.
Again, the pattern only gives you a fairly rough indication of where and when the eclipse will be. To predict it to the accuracy they do now you have to do a load of more complicated modelling and they do that using a model of the solar system, not a FE model.
Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"

Offline Action80

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #11 on: April 09, 2024, 02:24:02 PM »
There is nothing indicating this system is based on RE. It is simply pattern based.

Quote
The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE406 solar system ephemeris. This ephemeris consists of computer representations of the positions, velocities and accelerations of major Solar System bodies

And from:

https://eclipsewise.com/help/jpl-de.html

Quote
The observational data in the fits has been an evolving set, including: ranges (distances) to planets measured by radio signals from spacecraft, direct radar-ranging of planets, two-dimensional position fixes (on the plane of the sky) by VLBI of spacecraft, transit and CCD telescopic observations of planets and small bodies, and laser-ranging of retroreflectors on the Moon, among others.
What does any of these statements mean relative to the shape of the earth?
Quote
Of course they are not wrong. When you have a couple of thousand years of observing repeating patterns, you can pretty much write that down.
Again, the pattern only gives you a fairly rough indication of where and when the eclipse will be. To predict it to the accuracy they do now you have to do a load of more complicated modelling and they do that using a model of the solar system, not a FE model.
They do it using a pattern of historical movements of the sun and moon relative to the celestial sphere coordinates. It has nothing to do with RE or FE.

« Last Edit: April 09, 2024, 07:20:25 PM by Action80 »
To be honest I am getting pretty bored of this place.

Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #12 on: April 09, 2024, 11:03:26 PM »
Saw it today. Transcendent experience, I'm so glad I traveled to Texas to see it. I don't think it really proves anything about the shape of the Earth, but it's definitely a potent reminder of how awe-inspiring (and, dare I say, magical) the universe can be.

It could be used to create a juxtapostion map between moon and sun to be superimposed on a FE map to see if it makes sense. RE explains it perfectly. Can a FE model be created that does so?
Devout and strictly adherent Atheist.

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2024, 01:55:43 AM »
The Solar Eclipse eclipse paths on a Flat Earth make more sense to me than the Solar Eclipse paths on the Round Earth. Consider the map paths on a Round Earth. On the eclipse path maps the Moon's shadow is making quite sharp North-South movements over the course of a few hours. However, the Moon does not orbit the earth in a sharp South-West to North-East angle.

In RE Moon's orbit deviates by only 5 degrees from the plane of the ecliptic, the Sun-Earth plane. It is also only moving slightly slower in the Sun in the sky, setting 50 minutes later each day

https://web.archive.org/web/20190211123505/http://ircamera.as.arizona.edu/Astr2016/lectures/skyappearance.htm



Consider how the above, with a Moon that moves slowly across the sky in comparison to the Sun, can make all of these wild shapes:

http://eclipse-maps.com/Eclipse-Maps/Welcome.html



Curiously, on a Northern Azimuthal FE map, the paths of the Solar Eclipse make symmetrical arcs:

From A Text-Book of Astronomy by George C. Comstock

https://www.gutenberg.org/files/34834/34834-h/34834-h.htm



Quote
Fig. 36.—Central eclipses for the first two decades of the twentieth century. Oppolzer.

Future eclipses.—An eclipse map of a different kind is shown in Fig. 36, which represents the shadow paths of [pg. 114] all the central eclipses of the sun, visible during the period 1900-1918 A. D., in those parts of the earth north of the south temperate zone. Each continuous black line shows the path of the shadow in a total eclipse, from its beginning, at sunrise, at the western end of the line to its end, sunset, at the eastern end, the little circle near the middle of the line showing the place at which the eclipse was total at noon. The broken lines represent similar data for the annular eclipses. This map is one of a series prepared by the Austrian astronomer, Oppolzer, showing the path of every such eclipse from the year 1200 B. C. [pg. 115] to 2160 A. D., a period of more than three thousand years.

Also see this image:

« Last Edit: April 10, 2024, 02:00:07 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #14 on: April 10, 2024, 09:03:35 AM »
The Solar Eclipse eclipse paths on a Flat Earth make more sense to me than the Solar Eclipse paths on the Round Earth.

I think I've identified the issue.
This is a bit complicated but this video does a reasonable job of explaining it:



The headline is that straight lines when mapped on to a globe aren't straight when shown on a 2d map projection.
And the earth is rotating at different speeds at different latitudes, which complicates things.
Also note that the width of the eclipse path changes with latitude. The size of the shadow isn't different, it's just that the angle of the earth's surface with respect to that shadow is different which means it can be seen over a wider area.
Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #15 on: April 10, 2024, 10:26:03 AM »
Also see this image:
I'm pretty sure the globe earth paths shown on that are from more than one eclipse, I'd like to see the source for that.
And is your claim that this is an accurate FE map? If so how does it compare with known distances between places?
And how does the Sydney to Santiago flight work on that map? There's literally one in the air right now which you can track here:

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/QFA27

(at the time of writing, here's a screenshot from about half an hour ago)

Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #16 on: April 11, 2024, 11:28:26 AM »
The Solar Eclipse eclipse paths on a Flat Earth make more sense to me than the Solar Eclipse paths on the Round Earth.

I think I've identified the issue.
This is a bit complicated but this video does a reasonable job of explaining it:



The headline is that straight lines when mapped on to a globe aren't straight when shown on a 2d map projection.
And the earth is rotating at different speeds at different latitudes, which complicates things.
Also note that the width of the eclipse path changes with latitude. The size of the shadow isn't different, it's just that the angle of the earth's surface with respect to that shadow is different which means it can be seen over a wider area.

That video is titled "Why Do Eclipses Travel WEST to EAST?" and does not attempt to even explain the North-South movements. I am not asking why the eclipses travel West to East. I am asking why they make North-South movements, and make shapes like this:



Not only is there North-South movement, there many of them there is also a point of inflection, with one concave and one convex arch and where the eclipse changes direction.

The shapes are quite radical on a Round Earth, and there appears to be a lack of a coherent explanation for what is occurring here:

http://eclipse-maps.com/Eclipse-Maps/Welcome.html

« Last Edit: April 11, 2024, 01:50:13 PM by Tom Bishop »

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #17 on: April 11, 2024, 03:00:18 PM »
That video is titled "Why Do Eclipses Travel WEST to EAST?" and does not attempt to even explain the North-South movements.
It mentions it just after 3 minutes in. To understand this just put Google Earth in Globe mode, define some straight lines across the globe and then go back in to map projection mode. Voila:



Basically, it's a 2D line - the shadow path - mapped on to a 3D object - the globe - which is also spinning. And the rate of that spin varies with latitude.

It's a bit complicated, but if you look at the example at just after 3 minutes in to that video you can have a go yourself to help you understand it. A lot of your FE belief seems to stem from you not understanding the RE model and thus declaring it impossible.
Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #18 on: April 11, 2024, 03:48:38 PM »
Quote
It mentions it just after 3 minutes in.

No, it doesn't explain it. This is what it says at the 3 minute mark, that straight lines will look like curves at another angle:

Angle 1:


Angle 2:


This does not answer why the lines move North-South. It answers a different question of why they might appear curved.

To understand this just put Google Earth in Globe mode, define some straight lines across the globe and then go back in to map projection mode. Voila:



Basically, it's a 2D line - the shadow path - mapped on to a 3D object - the globe - which is also spinning. And the rate of that spin varies with latitude.

It's a bit complicated, but if you look at the example at just after 3 minutes in to that video you can have a go yourself to help you understand it. A lot of your FE belief seems to stem from you not understanding the RE model and thus declaring it impossible.

That's not an explanation for why it travels North-South. This is an explanation for why a line might appear straight on a globe and make those curves on a map projection. You drew the North-South line there, not explained how that could occur in RE with a Moon which moves East to West.

Also, the below are not map projections. The lines do not appear straight or consistently curved here:

http://eclipse-maps.com/Eclipse-Maps/Welcome.html

« Last Edit: April 11, 2024, 03:55:55 PM by Tom Bishop »

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Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« Reply #19 on: April 11, 2024, 04:57:13 PM »
That's not an explanation for why it travels North-South. This is an explanation for why a line might appear straight on a globe and make those curves on a map projection. You drew the North-South line there, not explained how that could occur in RE with a Moon which moves East to West.
OK. But why is North-South movement an issue? The rotation of the earth is at an angle so while the shadow may go in a straight line in the East-West direction, that angle means the shadow isn't going to hit the earth at the same latitude as it does so. Plus as I said the earth is rotating as it does so, the ground speed varies by latitude so that adds some complication.
And as I said you get very wide shadows when eclipses appear near the poles - it's not the size of the shadow that's different (although that does change a bit as the moon's distance from us varies - hence annular eclipses when it's too far away to completely obscure the sun), it's the angle of the ground with respect to that shadow that changes.

There is some complication here, admittedly, but a lot of your issues with RE seem to come from you not understanding them and thus concluding they must be impossible.
Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"