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Messages - Iceman

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641
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: November 14, 2020, 12:23:56 AM »
Just saw that!

Just when you think it cant cant better than Rudy hosting a presser at the Four Seasons... Donnie comes up with this bit of wonderous wordsmithing

642
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Disappearing Stars as you walk North/South
« on: November 13, 2020, 06:05:31 PM »
Are you arguing that the quote you provided from Dr. Pavlic supports the large scale bending of light  or that light doesnt travel in straight lines unless forced to curve by inhomogeneities of media it passes through? Though I'm nowhere near a subject matter expert in this, I'm not sure all that stuff about probabilities cancelling out in specific ways would be strong support for the rest of your arguments in this case.

643
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: November 13, 2020, 02:31:49 PM »
Yeah I dont know if Donnie actually wants another 4 years.

You can almost see the moment he decided to run for president in the first place, when he was getting roasted by Obama at that charity dinner... he said fuck all these people, announced his run and blew everybody else out of the water. Really was impressive when you think about it.

Tough to say if hes made enough money while being president to warrant wanting to stay there for another 4 years, but I imagine that hell sorely miss the constant attention the world gave him since then. The only pragmatic reason i can see for him wanting to keep the job, as you've said, it the insulation it provides him from the wrath of the justice system...and financiers coming after his debts.

Interesting times ahead!

644
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: November 11, 2020, 02:38:02 PM »
Reuters, and all the academics they consulted, appears to disagree with that sentiment

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27Q3AI

IThe article appears to just be talking about the difference between "proof" and "evidence"

“First, I'd like to stress that Benford's Law can NOT be used to "prove fraud",” he told Reuters by email. “It is only a Red Flag test, that can raise doubts. E.g., the IRS has been using it for decades to ferret out fraudsters, but only by identifying suspicious entries, at which time they put the auditors to work on the hard evidence. Whether or not a dataset follows BL proves nothing.”

Walter Mebane, Professor at the Department of Political Science and Department of Statistics at the University of Michigan (here) authored a December 2006 article (here) around the application of Benford’s Law to the US presidential election results. The article suggested some limitations of the process, but said in the Abstract: “The test is worth taking seriously as a statistical test for election fraud."

Do you have a special search algorithm that can detect the only phrases in an article that can be manipulated to support your preconceptions?  Did you read any of the other paragraphs? The rest of amebanes quotes? The excerpts from the paper he published about the 2020 results?

"On Nov. 9, 2020, in response to “several queries” Mebane published a paper called “Inappropriate Applications of Benford’s Law Regularities to Some Data from the 2020 Presidential Election in the United States” (www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/inapB.pdf). His paper says, “The displays shown at those sources using the first digits of precinct vote counts data from Fulton County, GA, Allegheny County, PA, Milwaukee, WI, and Chicago, IL, say nothing about possible frauds” before examining the reasons behind this statement."

The article admits that Bedford's law is a valid way of collecting evidence for voter fraud.

This is one of those Snopes: Fact Check False articles which builds a strawman and debunks it. It even ends with their "verdict".

"Someone said it was proof! Not proof, it's only evidence!!"

"This method of doing it I saw on the internet may be incorrect, but it's otherwise a valid method of collecting evidence for voter fraud"

Can you see how absurd this sounds? Why not just show that Biden's votes follow the law and that there are no anomalies.

Why not? Because the US is supposed to be the beat democracy in the world. This was arguable the most tightly- watched election of all time. The burden of proof lies on those making the claims of widespread vote fraud. So far, none of the accusations has gained any traction. I would reiterate that many of those 'anomalous' Biden votes also helped elect Republican senators. Are those Senate votes equally anomalous? Why arent Democrats crying foul that Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnel won their seats back?

Because it was a vote. Votes got counted, that's what the numbers said.

645
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: November 11, 2020, 02:12:28 PM »
Reuters, and all the academics they consulted, appears to disagree with that sentiment

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27Q3AI

IThe article appears to just be talking about the difference between "proof" and "evidence"

“First, I'd like to stress that Benford's Law can NOT be used to "prove fraud",” he told Reuters by email. “It is only a Red Flag test, that can raise doubts. E.g., the IRS has been using it for decades to ferret out fraudsters, but only by identifying suspicious entries, at which time they put the auditors to work on the hard evidence. Whether or not a dataset follows BL proves nothing.”

Walter Mebane, Professor at the Department of Political Science and Department of Statistics at the University of Michigan (here) authored a December 2006 article (here) around the application of Benford’s Law to the US presidential election results. The article suggested some limitations of the process, but said in the Abstract: “The test is worth taking seriously as a statistical test for election fraud."

Do you have a special search algorithm that can detect the only phrases in an article that can be manipulated to support your preconceptions?  Did you read any of the other paragraphs? The rest of amebanes quotes? The excerpts from the paper he published about the 2020 results?

"On Nov. 9, 2020, in response to “several queries” Mebane published a paper called “Inappropriate Applications of Benford’s Law Regularities to Some Data from the 2020 Presidential Election in the United States” (www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/inapB.pdf). His paper says, “The displays shown at those sources using the first digits of precinct vote counts data from Fulton County, GA, Allegheny County, PA, Milwaukee, WI, and Chicago, IL, say nothing about possible frauds” before examining the reasons behind this statement."

646
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: November 11, 2020, 02:05:14 PM »
Reuters, and all the academics they consulted, appears to disagree with that sentiment

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27Q3AI


647
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: November 11, 2020, 01:51:15 PM »
Trumpers point to a handful of accusations of mail-in ballot fraud - several of which have been proven to be lies (like the recent key USPS worker who just admitted he made the claim up) - but are perfectly fine with the actual and systematic efforts by trump and cronies to weaken and slow the USPS in the lead-up to the election.

They are challenging the authenticity of the results where biden won the presidency, even though those SAME BALLOTS are the ones that re-elected Republicans to the Senate.

Hypocrisy sounds like so much fun!

648
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: November 11, 2020, 12:04:18 AM »
Funny how with all the 'rampant voter fraud' out there, that Donnie only wants recounts in a couple states. Surely if it was so pervasive he, and all concerned parties, would want to expunge any and all fraudulent ballots out there... something doesn't quiiiite add up with the red flags they're raising

649
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Let's start with "Burden of Proof"
« on: November 09, 2020, 06:22:48 PM »
When it comes to the burden of proof, I'd remind all that just one single photo or video taken from outer space proves it exists and we're able to reach it. I've previously provided an example of the video of Chris Hadfield doing experiments on demand, wringing a water-soaked towel on the ISS as something that probably couldn't be faked in a vomit-comet, and I dont think we have good enough CGI to create the seamless video we see linked above.

As far as the argument that the astronauts are on harnesses... here's an hour-long tour through the ISS using a single camera with extended periods with no breaks. I didnt watch the whole thing, but they seamlessly travel through multiple compartments, spanning several minutes, with no cut breaks. The video explains a lot of what's going on up there and how it works. And you see the astronauts backs numerous times, and their travel through the numerous compartments would be impossible with any kind of fixed rack/harness/pulley system.





650
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: November 08, 2020, 10:52:12 PM »
Trumps speech was bullshit, and let's not pretend itll be a quiet transition for Biden.

 I recall a fair bit of 'deport that Muslim', 'go back to Kenya', 'hang in there' chants the last time there was a Democrat elected...

651
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Let's start with "Burden of Proof"
« on: November 08, 2020, 10:16:01 PM »

In looking at your clip with the visible wire I was definitely intrigued. But here we go again with we see what we want to see. So I had to really look into this one as I have not seen it before. So, take it at face value. I did a deep dive on it and we will all walk away with what we believe, most likely. But in doing so, trying to be as objective as possible, I think it's debunked. Here's what I came up with.

In short, the "wire" is a line outlining a sign on the hatch behind them all in the frame. What I did to determine this, first off, is found the whole higher quality clip here, starting at around 31:46 of this:



The low quality of the clip you provided helps us not.

Then, there was a hint that the "wire" in question was actually a line printed on the hatch door behind them around some text. So I followed that lead. I then found a clear view of the hatch door, albeit, slightly off angle, and superimposed it over the video image. For the most part, it lined up. Shown here:



Now, I then took the clip and slowed it down - I went frame-by-frame to double-check, but I think the slowed down gif reveals a lot:



Notice how the "wire"/line never moves laterally or otherwise from it's fixed point along with the movement of the guy. Watch really, really closely. And even gets obscured by the pants of the guy behind the guy in front. It's not moving. It's a line in background. It's not a wire affixed to the guy in front nor grabbed by the guy on the right.

This was a particularly compelling in a, "Wow, is that a wire/cable thing faking the ISS tumbles and such?" video. No, it is not.
There is no visible wire in this clip. The wires are edited out using software. There are other videos where they simply forgot to edit the harnesses out altogether. I can pull these  up if you like, a google search should do. My point is that you can clearly see the astronaut on the right pull something that is physically attached to the astronaut on the left in order to bring him under control after his somersault. Also, look how ridiculous Sandy's hair looks. This is not how you would expect hair to behave in space. It should have a more fluid out of control behavior as it would in water. This is just blatantly gelled upwards.



How would they fake this effect?
That is very impressive CGI and nothing more. No astronaut would be wreckless enough to let water splash everywhere out of control like this. It contradicts instructional videos they did previously on how to brush your teeth in space where they were being very careful about water use, swallowing their toothpaste for example and not washing their hair for extended periods (or not at all).

So, this could be a powerful argument on your side. If you could just clear this up: is your argument that NASA's current explanation for how their spacesuits work inconsistent with physics as we know it? Or are you saying that their past explanations are not consistent, the current one are, but that the fact that their explanations changed over time is the problem. In any case, if you could provide the mathematical proof or at least a reference to a reading or a URL, that could also help. After you expand this, I'll give a more full response.
The suits they supposedly use now and also the new xEMU suits have hinges/bearings at the joints. The suits used during the Apollo missions did not. Let me explain why this is a huge problem:
On earth, there is 101,000 Pascals or Newtons per square meter of pressure or 1 atmosphere exerted on us right now. I'm spelling out the units so it's easier to comprehend how huge a pressure that is. So why don't we get crushed, or why don't our lungs collapse under this pressure? Because inside our lungs and blood vessels and body cavities there is also 101,000 Pa  of pressure - the difference between the inside and outside is effectively zero. But in space they don't have this luxury. So if you send a vessel that has
1 atm of pressure inside it into space, now you have a very difficult engineering problem on your hands because now all the materials used to make the rockets, the lunar landers, the space suits all have to withstand at least 101,000 Pa of pressure (this is not an easy problem to solve at all).
Let me give you a real world example of how huge a pressure this is: Lets say on earth we open up a spacesuit and for arguments sake the opened material is 1 square meter of fabric. If you take this piece of fabric and fix the four corners to a rope (so it's like a trampoline) if you were to put 10,100 Kg (or 10 tonnes) of mass on the fabric, the tension experienced would be the equivalent of having a space suit in space with 1 atm of pressure inside it. There are very few flexible materials that can withstand these pressures and even if they could, they would be rendered so incredibly rigid that the astronaut inside would not be able to maneuver. Think of how stiff the wall of a basketball is, well the space suit would be pressurized to twice this amount at least.

So in the post Apollo era they had to explain this away somehow. Nasa's official stance now is that before going on a space walk the astronaut has to depressurise the suit down to 5-6KPa of pressure in order to allow maneuverability. But, there is a big problem with this, as divers know, this depressurization causes bubbles of nitrogen to form in the blood causing a condition known as "the bends". To overcome this, they must pump pure oxygen into the space suits so the astronaut can expel all the nitrogen from their blood. But this raises another problem - breathing pure oxygen for extended periods causes hyperoxia which can cause death in minutes!

None of this was taken into account during Apollo missions. There were no hinges on the suits, no depressurization chambers, no pure oxygen elements in the suits. And yet they hop around happily on the moon hitting golf balls and doing burnouts on the lunar rover!

The whole thing is preposterous if you dig in just a tiny bit.

I think you need to do better than that. You've merely said that they're on invisible harnesses, using some super CGI because getting water on a towel and hands is 'reckless', and then rambled about spacesuits without providing a shred of any useful information to support anything you've said.

652
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« on: November 07, 2020, 03:13:02 AM »
The thought of him losing by the same 'landslide' he beat Hillary by, despite losing the popular vote... just amazing.

Still early though.

653
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Terrible Political Memes
« on: November 07, 2020, 02:45:44 AM »

654
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« on: November 07, 2020, 01:34:31 AM »
If they watermarked them and it is revealed that there are bogus ballots out there, then find them, DIScount them, and charge those responsible. Adjust the counts accordingly. No one is saying that fake ballots should count... a lot of us are skeptical that there is such a conspiracy afoot, rather than just...a shit load of americans who got sick and tired of that fat orange tweet machine and just said no to four more years of this crap

655
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« on: November 06, 2020, 08:42:17 PM »
Is it too soon to point out the fact that with these razor-tight margins, Donnie really could have used the 240k votes of seniors who his actions and inactions as president failed over the last ~8 months?

Is that incredibly insensitive to point out, or is this (tentative) result a kind of justice?

656
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Joe Biden is winning by a landslide
« on: November 06, 2020, 07:31:38 PM »
I dont see what the big "AHA" moment is here... IF there were fake ballots entered, those will be uncovered in the inevitable investigations that will be initiated shortly. And IF there are fraudulent ballots, they will be eliminated and the FBI(?) will investigate their source and hopefully press charges.

So far I haven't heard of any evidence suggesting this has actually happened...

657
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Inquiries about Flat Earth theory of the firmament.
« on: November 06, 2020, 02:43:41 PM »
Yep, 100%.  ...that was bad wording on my part... it's what prevents the upper layers from getting 'sucked away' by the vacuum of space, but the root cause of our atmosphere being stuck to us and having the observed gradient in the first place is gravity.

658
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Inquiries about Flat Earth theory of the firmament.
« on: November 06, 2020, 02:05:19 PM »
Yea, I was adding reference recent empirical evidence of the atmospheric pressure gradient.

One of the main reasons for the 'need' for a firmament is to keep our atmosphere protected from the vacuum of space and the supposed argument that a vacuum cant exist beyond our atmosphere because of the supposed breaking of the second law of thermodynamics that is routinely parroted.

If the pressure at high altitude in the atmosphere is near zero (as seen at ~38km) then there is minimal remaining gradient between the upper atmosphere and the surrounding regions of space. Minimal gradient = minimal force, hence why our atmosphere can stay firmly attached to our delightful little planet even though theres no pressure in space.

659
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Inquiries about Flat Earth theory of the firmament.
« on: November 06, 2020, 01:22:12 PM »
A nice video from a balloon ascent was release not too long ago. Lots of beautiful images, but more importantly, equipped with live streaming of temperature and atmospheric pressure data during ascent and descent phases. The balloon reached an altitude of about 38 km, where it burst, as the pressure had dropped to 0.003 atm (getting real close to zero there - not much of a gradient compared to the ambient pressure within the rest of the 'vacuum's of space!)

I forget the name of the channel, but remember the balloon was nicknamed MAGE.

660
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: November 04, 2020, 11:44:01 PM »
I support Trumps call for recounts in the close races - getting the count right is essential (but typically only changes the numbers by a few hundred, one way or the other)

On the other hand, the call to stop counting votes is absurd. Voting is the most fundamental part of a democracy. If an incumbent leader in Africa was doing/saying these things, you bet your ass america and other world leaders would be sabre-rattling to get the UN involved, or the US would head in there to democratize the shit out them. But since it's happening in the states... it's only going to get worse from here.

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