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Messages - DuncanDoenitz

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1
Flat Earth Community / Re: The Final Experiment
« on: May 17, 2024, 10:14:16 PM »
It's on the internet, and you suspect its a scam?  Have you no faith in human kindness? 

I'm truly shocked by your cynicism, Pete.  Shocked. 

2
Flat Earth Community / Re: The Final Experiment
« on: May 17, 2024, 03:22:32 PM »
Dunno about this, AATW.  Yes, the ultimate experiment in theory, but the website makes Jeran look like George Lucas by comparison; no pages at all except a bunch of You-Tube links.  If this thing gets as far as the equator I'll eat my tinfoil hat. 

3
Flat Earth Investigations / Re: What is the true map of the earth?
« on: May 15, 2024, 08:21:43 PM »
A80; I think you'll find 35 on-schedule return flights is 70 instances.  Why, what have you got? 

(And, as you apparently failed to notice, Tom just (once again) reiterated previous apocrypha without actually referencing any single jetsteam-related cancellation). 


4
Flat Earth Investigations / Re: What is the true map of the earth?
« on: May 14, 2024, 01:40:03 PM »
Tom,

Maggie Teneva.  I think you misunderstand; I wasn't implying satire or humour with regard to Maggie, I was just making the point that the article was about making air-journeys more enjoyable, and its relevance to flight cancellations was a single line in the summary implying that cancellations were frequent, but without any evidence or analysis. 

Continental Airlines.  The article is 12 years old, and refers to Boeing 757s.  Almost no-one uses 757s for transatlantic travel these days and, unless I am missing your point, it confirms my assertion that jetstreams impede, rather than assist, westbound travel. 

"ETOPS stops".  There is no such thing.  ETOPS refers purely to the aircraft's range from a suitable diversion airport at cruising speed on a single engine. 

East-to-west winds.  You earlier drew a distinction between "jetstreams" and "winds"; I am throwing it back at you.  Your graphic, and the Wikipedia article from which it is drawn, is about wind; specifically trade-winds.  The whole point of trade winds is that they assist sailing ships, which generally operate at sea level.  They are part of a Hadley Cell, in which the high altitude component flows away from the equator and the low altitude element towards the equator, forming the trade wind.  I reiterate that jetstreams are almost exclusively a west-to-east phenomenon. 

Cancelled/rescheduled flights.  I would refer you again to the LATAM Santiago/Melbourne service as an example.  Three months of scheduled flights, 3 times per week, only one flight cancelled.  Of the remainder, every flight left Santiago on the day planned, most within an hour of the scheduled departure time.  Not replanned.  Not rescheduled.  Not removed. 

5
Flat Earth Investigations / Re: What is the true map of the earth?
« on: May 13, 2024, 08:23:31 PM »

They don't. Flights are canceled all the time, especially long haul flights. See this quote by travel writer Maggie Teneva:

“Long-haul flights are often associated with long layovers and delays or cancellations.”

If there are unexpected changes to the jet stream or winds mid-flight, a non-stop flight might even stop for fuel:

“ Dozens of Continental Airlines flights to the East Coast from Europe have been forced to make unexpected stops in Canada and elsewhere to take on fuel after running into unusually strong headwinds over the Atlantic Ocean.

The stops, which have caused delays and inconvenience for thousands of passengers in recent weeks, are partly the result of a decision by United Continental Holdings Inc., the world's largest airline, to use smaller jets on a growing number of long, trans-Atlantic routes. ”

Per ETOPS, plane flight routes are required to be in vicinity of airports or landing strips for unexpected stops like that. Even long haul flights over oceans need the capability to make detour routes to islands with landing strips in case something like the above happens. The US Military is even known to maintain landing strips on certain uninhabited islands in remote locations for ETOPS purposes.



The quote from Maggie teneva (who she?) is simply a throwaway line at the end of an article about entertaining your kids on longhaul. 

The "stopping for fuel" link doesn't go anywhere. 

The Continental Airlines example is undated, has no reference, and (if true) sounds like poor planning by  the airline in not using aircraft with apprpriate capacity/range.   

ETOPS is not a restriction; it is a relaxation of previously existing routes that require aircraft to route within 1-hour flying time of a suitable diversion airfield.  In the case of the Airbus A350, this can now be extended to 5hrs 30min at single engine cruise speed (frightening but true), meaning that only Antarctica is off limits (unless, of course, one of the ice-runways is the destination). 

The USAF, being outwith ICAO regulations, is not limited by ETOPS.  The United States maintains "landing strips on certain uninhabited islands in remote locations" for military operational, security and diplomatic purposes. 

Aircraft often divert from route for reasons of security, medical or technical emergency, but beyond the apocryphal stements you have made, I challenge you to identify a single recent occurance made purely for a splash and dash.  Any commercial aircraft diverting from its planned route purely for a fuel stop would find its captain and dispatcher having a series of one-way conversations with management. 

And yes, jetstreams are a perpetual phenomenon, but no they are not alway at the extreme stengthsyou suggest, and almost without excdeption are a west-to-east direction.  Apart from local eddies there is absolutely no, general, assistance, anywhere on Earth, to westbound travel. 

Your statement "Flights are canceled all the time, especially long haul flights" is simply untrue.  For example, I've just looked at data on FR24 for LATAM's Santiago-Melbourne service LA804/805; run with a Boeing 787 Dreamliner.  The service operates 3 times a week in each direction and between 15 Feb and today, 12 weeks, 36 planned return trips; one cancellation.  And the flight times:

Santiago-Melbourne; quickest 12.55 (16 Feb), longest 14.45 (1 March). 
Melbourne-Santiago; quickest 11.38 (12 March), longest 12.35 (23 March). 


Action80;  You haven't said when your flight was, or whether it was over land or sea, but its not unusual.  Over land there is normally good radar coverage and separation is normally monitered by ATC controllers.  Oceanic; aircraft are cleared to fly a route between specific waypoints, but the principal separation is made by altitude.  Separation used to be 1000feet but for the last 20 years or so this was reduced to just 500feet, with a strict regime of altimeter-inspections and aircrew compliance.  At about a mile, a 500foot difference would probably be indistinguishable. 

6
Flat Earth Investigations / Re: What is the true map of the earth?
« on: May 12, 2024, 09:09:48 PM »
You're talking about the jetstreams as being a constant phenomenon.  They aren't, they are variable, in location, direction and velocity.  Like I said, its just a wind.  If its above 60 kts, as you say, they term it a jetstream, but its still just a wind. 

And you are absolutely correct that favourable jetstreams (like other winds) are exploited for the purpose of speed and economy, but if the jetstream is absent, or unfavourable, the flights still occur.  Just look at the post-Covid-resurrected Qantas/LAN services between Chile and Australasia; they take place on schedule every time, eastbound and westbound.  They can't be that anomalous can they? 

Now try Googling Air France flight AF174 on 8 May.  (Or here's a link);

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af174?utm_campaign=website&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sendgrid.com#351eba3d

Airbus A350 F-HUVC departed Paris CDG as AF174 for Mexico City but developed a problem over Newfoundland and returned to CDG.  Flight tracking data shows that the return leg was performed almost completely along the same route and at a similar altitude as the outbound leg.  Pretty dumb with a 300mph wind wasn't it, or maybe the airline actually knew the windspeed? 



7
Flat Earth Investigations / Re: What is the true map of the earth?
« on: May 02, 2024, 07:27:17 PM »
I showed you the calculation at Reply#2.  Average the groundspeeds of 2 aircraft flying in opposite directions at a similar airspeed in a similar airspace; for each aircraft the difference from the average is the headwind/tailwind speed component. 

8
Flat Earth Investigations / Re: What is the true map of the earth?
« on: May 02, 2024, 06:55:21 PM »


Those numbers are around the plane's cruise speed. But the plane should not be traveling at a speed around its cruising speed, since we know that on long haul flights planes across the oceans planes use jet streams to reach their location. It would be traveling the plane's cruising speed + jet stream.

Jetstreams even enable supersonic flight for commercial aircraft.

On the flight trackers there have been some interesting anomalies. Jeran shows at the 1h32m mark of the following video about the flight between Auckland and Santiago that True Airspeed can be seen to far exceed ground speed. Over the course of the flight the True Airspeed is either "N/A" or shows quite fast speeds.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKKHY72x3ZU




A jetstream is just a wind, and I accounted for it in my calculation.  A look at any jetstream map will show that they are predominently westerly in the southern hemisphere, which corresponds with my previous statement and, if it is assisting the eastbound flight will it not be hindering the westbound which is occuring simultaneously and at similar latitudes? 

We've also done Jeran's thing before.  Simultaneous to the "supersonic" speeds is a series of altitude changes which an F-16 would struggle with.  Its just a batch of missing data on aircraft position; when it recovers the position data it integrates the delta-position over time to determine speed.   

9
Flat Earth Investigations / Re: What is the true map of the earth?
« on: May 02, 2024, 09:12:36 AM »
"... faster winds in the south ....".  Ah yes, we've been here before. 

Amongst others at the moment, (now, 0912UTC on 2 May 2024) LAN-Chile has 2 Boeing 787 Dreamliners airborne over the South Pacific. 

Reg CC-BGG is operating as LAN801 from Santiago to Auckland, a route planned as about 5300NM.  The aircraft is just under halfway and estimates completing the journey with a flight time of 12 hours, giving an average ground speed of 440 kts

Its sister ship, CC-BGH is operating as LAN804 from Melbourne to Santiago, a route planned as about 6200NM.  The aircraft is about halfway and estimates completing the journey with a flight time also of 12 hours, giving an average ground speed of 520 kts

Taking the average of the westbound and eastbound flights, 480 kts, would suggest an westerly wind component of 40 kts acting as a headwind hampering LAN801 and assisting LAN804.  Wikipedia lists the cruising speed of a Dreamliner as 488 to 516 kts. 

As the captains of both aircraft would not have departed unless they were sure of the distance and fuel needed, I would suggest that calculating the distance from South America to Australasia has been calculated in considerably less than "20 to 30 years", and that the windspeeds are well understood. 

10
Flat Earth Investigations / Re: I am wondering why I do not see...
« on: April 01, 2024, 01:22:34 PM »
As I understand the Saros theory, if there is an eclipse in your state that is not on this table, it will be part of a different Saros Cycle; this table only refers to Saros Cycle Number 145.  Or did you think that only 16 eclipses would occur globally over a 260 year period? 

11
Suggestions & Concerns / Re: Wiki Spam
« on: March 23, 2024, 11:41:15 PM »
Many correspondents on these pages would contend that most of the Wiki's content is a load of old nonsense, but the fact is that FEers have devoted considerable time and effort to construct, amend and develop the information therein, and that it forms the public crystalisation of your credo. 

That some faceless, mindless morons can feck-around with it to this extent is, sadly, a typical electronic example of the modern vandalism that sees Banksies defaced, objects dropped from highway bridges, and so on. 

Sincerely hope that you can sort it out. 

12
Agreed on this example BillO, and refutes Action80's assertion that

It is important to note the routes taken today have remained essentially unchanged.

Examples are even more different in the southern hemisphere (Hemiplane?).  Witness Qantas QFA864 (B787, VH-ZNN), currently around 51S 60E en-route J'burg-Sydney; a route which didn't exist in the early 20th Century. 

13
Need to play Devil's advocate here BillO; the proof is not in this particular pudding. 

The reason for the 1920s/30s routing was, as you say, to accommodate the relatively short range of the aircraft involved (and incidentally goes some way to explaining the current hodge-podge of middle-east politics, as the British Empire ran roughshod over emirates and sheikhdoms in order to provide an air-route to British southern Africa and to India). 

Your Directflights map is not an air-route at all, its a travel agent's illustration of a hypothetical link between the 2 cities, in the same way that the London Underground Map joins Waterloo to Paddington.  Its not a navigational map.  If you look at a tracking site like Flightradar24 you'll find that the normal route is typically Balkans, eastern Med, Egypt, northern Red Sea, Ethiopea, Kenya, Tanzania, and all well to the east of a Great Circle.  The reason for this is to related to common sense as well as insurance requirements; most aviation insurance excludes flight over war-zones, rogue-states and specifically some countries such as North Korea, Libya, Yemen.  Hence, very similar to Imperial Airways, in fact, but in hours rather than days, and not a pith-helmet in sight. 

I agree 100% with your concept of modern air-routes generally being more direct, but you'll likely be looking at oceanic examples to get your point over.  Glad you're feeling better btw. 

14
Science & Alternative Science / Re: New Report on WTC 7
« on: February 19, 2024, 08:56:49 PM »

Google search - "how much fuel did ua 175 carry"

1st up = "UA 175 was also a Boeing 767-200ER and had also left Boston, bound for Los Angeles. It flew into WTC 2 carrying about 9,100 gal (62,000 lb) of jet fuel, evenly distributed between the inboard portions of the left and right wing tanks."

That is less than 10,000.

Your "book," is way, way off...perhaps in the section called "fiction."


So, "62,000 lb ........ that is less than 10,000".  Please explain.  Are you introducing gallons into this debate, when jet fuel is measured by mass, just to maintain your assertion that Mahogany is a liar? 


15
Science & Alternative Science / Re: New Report on WTC 7
« on: February 19, 2024, 07:57:12 PM »
Both 767s were destined for LAX.  According to Mr Google, a 767 uses around 13,000 pounds of fuel per hour.  Flight time of 5 hours from passing NY, plus 40 min reserves, would suggest that each 767 was carrying around 70,000 pounds of Jet-A1; kerosene if you will, at impact.  "Tens of thousands" in my book. 

Although Mahogany did not specify units, aircraft of US origin normally measure fuel load in pounds; European generally in kilograms.  Fuel quantity on commercial and military aircraft is always quantified by mass (not volume) since that is directly related to its calorific value. 

Can you be a little more specific about his alleged lie? 

16
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Trump
« on: February 18, 2024, 10:06:03 PM »
"When they came for the Estonians, I was not Estonian, so I did nothing". 

And so on, and so forth. 

17
Science & Alternative Science / Re: New Report on WTC 7
« on: February 18, 2024, 09:42:34 PM »
Titled ".... WTC BUILIDING 7 ..." (sic). 

Obviously a critique with this level of peer-review deserves our full attention. 

18

Yes they are.

https://edition.cnn.com/style/article/blue-marble-photo-50th-anniversary-snap-scn/index.html
[/quote]


Quote
The iconic photo, known as “Blue Marble,” was taken by NASA astronauts Eugene “Gene” Cernan, Ronald Evans and Harrison Schmitt on December 7 using a Hasselblad camera and a Zeiss lens, about 45,000 kilometers (28,000 miles) away from home, as the Apollo 17 crew made its way to the moon.


Quote
"Oh my God, look at that picture over there! There's the Earth coming up. Wow, is that pretty!" Bill Anders shouted at fellow astronaut Jim Lovell. "You got a colour film, Jim? Hand me a roll of colour, quick, would you?"
"That's a beautiful shot," said Lovell as Anders clicked the shutter and captured what has become one of the world's most famous photographs.

There's little doubt that the Earthrise image has been chopped about and digitally altered to enhance its impact in the modern age, but it was first published in 1969.  Adobe Photoshop was developed by Thomas Knoll, born 1960.  You think maybe NASA saw his potential and brought him onboard at age 9?

19
Ferguson's Map; indeed.  Other brands also available.

Is it not clear to you that I am not debating the multitude of possible forms of map, but directly Action80's contention that the Earth is flat, "everywhere (he) goes". 

Like his desk.  And most of the maps. 


(Oh, and "zealot" btw?  Thank you; "praise indeed"). 

20
Pete, I already discounted the grain and blemishes (the mountains and valleys, if you will).  My suggestion is that Action80's desk probably has an overall curvature.  He proposed it as an analogy to the observed Earth (despite the fairly obvious difference in perspective) and stated that it is flat, but has so far provided no evidence to this effect. 

(4 years; my my).   

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