George

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1420 on: October 13, 2016, 04:14:24 AM »
Nate Bronze is under the impression that as an attitude, party identification changes a lot. The problem is that is, as I said, utter nonsense. While yes, quite a few people change their party line during election season, the vast majority of people do not. They vote exactly the same way each and every time. Hence, they are a demographic. What matters is whether they show up or not, not necessarily which way they vote.

First you say it's not "a lot," then you say it's "quite a few."  Which is it?  And it doesn't need to be the "vast majority of people" to be statistically significant in terms of polling.  If we already knew how virtually everyone was going to vote based on how they voted in the last election, there would never be any doubt about who would win them to begin with.  In any case, all you're arguing here is that polls should weight their results by party identification, not that they already do.

Quote
And you think all of those GOP voters will vote for Clinton? Your best bet is that they don't show up at all.

They might vote for Clinton, or for a third-party candidate, or write someone else in.

Quote
...primary turnout always predicts the winner. Hence why I mentioned the primary model, a model that predicts the winner based on primary turnouts and has been correct every year for the past century. Though, to be fair, the model was created in 1996 and "backtracks" in order to predict the winners since 1912.

That's not true.  The primary model predicts the winner based on the performances of the specific candidates in the primary, not the overall turnout for the party.  I don't blame you for misunderstanding it, though, as the guy's website does an atrocious job of explaining what it is and how it works. 

Also, I was talking more about your assumption that the primary turnout would predict the general election turnout, not the winner.

*

Offline Lord Dave

  • *
  • Posts: 7653
  • Grumpy old man.
    • View Profile
Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1421 on: October 13, 2016, 07:57:50 AM »
A well written cracked article o ln why Trump is popular.

http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about_p2/
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1422 on: October 13, 2016, 08:27:06 PM »
The same mass media outlets which built Trump up to become the Republican nominee, now are turning on him with full power. During the primaries, the NYT played nice to Trump, now they are out to get him.

As I have stated from the very start, we are still waiting to find out the reason why the GOP has put up with Trump in the first place.

If the rules with respect to replacing the nominee so late in the game weren't so much against any other possible outcome, I'd have said that Trump is playing the clown to get someone else elected, a last minute replacement on the Republican ticket in November (Trump/Pence out, ?/Ryan in).

George

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1423 on: October 14, 2016, 03:10:15 AM »

*

Offline Lord Dave

  • *
  • Posts: 7653
  • Grumpy old man.
    • View Profile
Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1424 on: October 14, 2016, 04:57:57 AM »
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/14/us/politics/trump-comments-linked-to-antisemitism.html

Trump has finally gone off the deep end.

Eh, its a weak link.  I wouldn't give trump the credit to have intentionally made antisemite comments.

But hey, he supported her for years so obviously he's benefited.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

George

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1425 on: October 14, 2016, 12:12:30 PM »
It's not the antisemitic thing; it's that he's hit the bottom of the barrel in his conspiracy rants.  The destruction of U.S. sovereignty?  Hillary plotting with global financial powers?  He might as well just start yelling about chemtrails and jet fuel not being able to melt steel beams while he's at it.


*

Offline Lord Dave

  • *
  • Posts: 7653
  • Grumpy old man.
    • View Profile
Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1427 on: October 14, 2016, 12:26:21 PM »
He talks about how horrible Hillary is but if you're able to start from almost nothing and have the power to bend the will of the media AND bring down the entire US as a member of the Illuminati... you're pretty fucking good at what you do.

Trump, on the other hand, started with everything and doesn't haven't any of that power.  I think he's jealous.


Anyway, all these women suddenly accusing Trump of inappropriate behavior sounds alot like what Bill Clinton went through.  He denied it, his supporters asked "why so long", etc.. and Donald is doing the same thing saying it's false and why did they wait so long, etc...

I'm not sure if it's poetic justice, irony, or just well planned attacks by Clinton.



http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/09/there-s-still-time-to-replace-donald-trump-as-the-gop-nominee.html

Pretty sure the tickets are locked now.  You can't replace him even if you wanted to.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

*

Offline rooster

  • *
  • Posts: 4139
    • View Profile
Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1428 on: October 14, 2016, 01:57:06 PM »
He talks about how horrible Hillary is but if you're able to start from almost nothing and have the power to bend the will of the media AND bring down the entire US as a member of the Illuminati... you're pretty fucking good at what you do.
She was born into a wealthy political family so I wouldn't say she started from nothing.

*

Offline Lord Dave

  • *
  • Posts: 7653
  • Grumpy old man.
    • View Profile
Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1429 on: October 14, 2016, 02:13:37 PM »
He talks about how horrible Hillary is but if you're able to start from almost nothing and have the power to bend the will of the media AND bring down the entire US as a member of the Illuminati... you're pretty fucking good at what you do.
She was born into a wealthy political family so I wouldn't say she started from nothing.
She was?
Oh, then nevermind.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1430 on: October 14, 2016, 03:46:27 PM »

*

Offline Lord Dave

  • *
  • Posts: 7653
  • Grumpy old man.
    • View Profile
Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1431 on: October 14, 2016, 05:06:39 PM »
Well shit.

CIA operative...

I'm gonna have to look into him.  Might be my vote in November.


Also:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/15/us/politics/trump-voters-reaction.html?partner=msft_msn&_r=0
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1432 on: October 14, 2016, 08:45:23 PM »
It's not the antisemitic thing; it's that he's hit the bottom of the barrel in his conspiracy rants.  The destruction of U.S. sovereignty?  Hillary plotting with global financial powers?  He might as well just start yelling about chemtrails and jet fuel not being able to melt steel beams while he's at it.

Would he be wrong?

*

Offline Fortuna

  • *
  • Posts: 2979
    • View Profile
Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1433 on: October 14, 2016, 09:41:38 PM »
I think politicians plotting with global financial powers is par for the course.

Offline Dionysios

  • *
  • Posts: 280
    • View Profile
Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1434 on: October 14, 2016, 11:11:42 PM »
I welcome our time-traveling overlord Mike Pence.
But seriously, if anyone thinks half the shit they read isn't prestaged, they're as delusional as a child on christmas thinking Santa came.


I second that. And it's been that way for decades. There's more truth and understanding of the current in a methodical search through old books than through current media.

One in particular seems especially relevant:  Rajani Palme Dutt's 1934 book on fascism states that social democracy is the twin of fascism. Both systems work for the same capitalist master. Weimar Germany, pre-Mussolini Italy, pre-Franco Spain, the U.S. and most western democracies are social democracies, or social fascist countries.  They become openly fascist when the capitalist rulers feel their power threatened. Both American political parties are social democratic. America and the other social democracies are the moderate wing of fascism.

I disagree.  Old books show us nothing of greater value or truth.  Anyone can write a book and publish it, regardless of truth.  Worse yet, when all your facts flow from a limited source (books and news papers) its easier to control.


If you seek to broaden your horizons so as to be less easily manipulated, then may I suggest you check out 'Propaganda: The Formation of Men's Attitudes' by Jacques Ellul which might enhance your perspective. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda:_The_Formation_of_Men%27s_Attitudes

*

Offline spoon

  • *
  • Posts: 1134
  • Foxy wins
    • View Profile
Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1435 on: October 15, 2016, 12:38:15 AM »
Donallary Trunton ~Versus~ Hillanald Clump

Who wins in an internationally televised rap battle?
inb4 Blanko spoons a literally pizza

*

Offline Snupes

  • Planar Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 1957
  • Counting wolves in your paranoiac intervals
    • View Profile
Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1436 on: October 15, 2016, 03:33:23 AM »
Well shit.

CIA operative...

I'm gonna have to look into him.  Might be my vote in November.


Also:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/15/us/politics/trump-voters-reaction.html?partner=msft_msn&_r=0

You're voting?
There are cigarettes in joints. You don't smoke it by itself.

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1437 on: October 15, 2016, 10:34:44 AM »



George

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1438 on: October 15, 2016, 03:35:17 PM »

*

Offline Lord Dave

  • *
  • Posts: 7653
  • Grumpy old man.
    • View Profile
Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #1439 on: October 15, 2016, 03:56:15 PM »
Well shit.

CIA operative...

I'm gonna have to look into him.  Might be my vote in November.


Also:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/15/us/politics/trump-voters-reaction.html?partner=msft_msn&_r=0

You're voting?

Yes...
Why would you think I wouldn't?
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.