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Messages - garygreen

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1521
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
« on: March 06, 2014, 08:38:21 PM »
Tymoshenko was charged in May of 2011.
Try again. That was the last charge in a fairly long streak, and the one that was ultimately successful. Her first charge* came up on the 12th of May 2010.

* - Okay, technically that was a re-opening of a past charge.

This is all irrelevant to my point that Russia has a legitimate interest in protecting the democratically-elected government in Ukraine from an unconstitutional coup.  They're neighbors and allies.  Russia needs access to Crimea.  Russia needs access to LNG transportation through Ukraine.

And you're wrong anyway.  Tymoshenko was first charged in December of 2010:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2c703cec-0c79-11e0-8408-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2vDIB1tGM
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/56556.html

That's 10 months after Tymoshenko dropped her legal challenge of Yanukovych's election:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/21/world/europe/21ukraine.html?_r=0

She was convicted in October of 2011. 

You apparently have nothing to say on my most salient points, that 1) arresting Tymoshenko after she drops her legal challenge, and after the elections have been declared legitimate, makes no sense; and, 2) that Tymoshenko wasn't the figurehead of any of the international or domestic organizations overseeing the elections in the first place.

At the time she was arrested, Tymoshenko was focused on speaking out against a new parliamentary coalition founded by Yanucovych and supported by the then-PM, Mykola Azarov.  Seriously, their relationship reads like a season of House of Cards.  It's about way, way more than her opposition to his presidency.

Russia's response has hardly been wanton.  There's been no violence
Out of curiosity, what's your favourite source of world news? It's starting to sound like you watch RT.

Lexis Nexis.  Al-Jazeera America if I'm watching a news station on TV. 

Putin himself had to defend his country against allegations of aggression, which have been widely documented.

Russia's response has been non-violent and measured.  That's the opposite of wanton.  They sent some troops to Crimea and surrounded some military bases.  That's about it.

Compare that to the US reaction to Noriega's coup in Panama in 1989.  I'd say the Russians are being downright polite by comparison.

1522
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
« on: March 06, 2014, 02:25:23 PM »
Quote
trumped-up felony charges

In fairness, looking at the histories of most Ukranian MPS, charges of corruption could be deployed against virtually any of them. The choice to use it against the opposition leader was purely political.

I agree completely.  I have a lot of sympathy for Tymoshenko, but she's probably just as corrupt as the rest of Ukraine's political body.

Also, she's really, really hot.

1523
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
« on: March 06, 2014, 05:38:17 AM »
Yes, but "lots of people" were not figureheads of the questioning. Tymoshenko was. There's no point in jailing "lots of people" when you can resolve the whole situation by jailing one.

To claim that she wasn't jailed for questioning the elections means to ignore the timeline of events.

Have another look at the timeline.  My evidence indicates that the 2010 election was already given a big thumbs-up by both Ukraine's Central Election Commission and the EU's own election commission.  The situation was already resolved.  Tymoshenko was charged in May of 2011.  It doesn't make sense to me that Yanukovych would jail Tymoshenko for questioning the legitimacy of his government after it had already been approved as legitimate.  There's nothing to gain on that front.

It also makes little sense that Yanukovych would think that arresting Tymoshenko could 'resolve' international and domestic oversight of his election by the Ukraine Supreme Court, the Central Elections Commission, and the EU.

It makes a lot of sense to me that, at the height of his power, he jailed his primary political opponent of the last two decades on trumped-up felony charges to prevent her from being able to legally hold office.  They've been adversaries for nearly two decades.

The fact that the West tried to maintain good "soft" relations with Russia in the past does nothing to substantiate your claim that Russia's wanton invasion is legitimate.

Where did I say that?  That's not how I'm substantiating my claim.  The issue for me is of Russia's legitimate national interests in Crimea and Yanukovych's legitimate claim to be the democratically elected ruler of Ukraine.  If you believe as I do that an unconstitutional coup has overthrown a constitutionally elected government, then why shouldn't Russia, its neighbor and ally, get involved?  Even if it didn't have an interest in controlling Crimea, it certainly has a legitimate interest in protecting both ethnic Russians in the region, and the government of a neighboring state.   

Also, Russia's response has hardly been wanton.  There's been no violence, and Russia has a well-known and explicit interest in the region.

1524
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
« on: March 06, 2014, 01:59:11 AM »
No, they're keeping a revolution from turning a pro-Russia government into a pro-EU government, which would cost them their only deep warm water port. A EU Ukraine would devastate the Russian economy. This isn't at all about Ukraine itself, Russia is acting solely in Russia's best interest.

Ultimately, I agree completely.  That's what I was getting at with my Panama analogy.  The US would certainly have a keen (and legitimate, in my view) interest in protecting the Panama canal.  Likewise, I think Russia has a legitimate interest in protecting its resources in Crimea.

Personally, I think it's about more than that.  Russia's national and cultural interests aren't at odds here.  They're both important causes.  And, the Ukraine is undoubtedly a state to which Russia feels a strong regional and cultural connection.  They're its protectorate.

Gary, you may want to read up on that "legitimately" and "democratically elected government". Its election was surrounded with questions and unexplained inconsistencies, which eventually led to Tymoshenko being jailed for questioning it too much.

The European Union thought in 2010 that it was a fair election: http://www.ponarseurasia.org/sites/default/files/policy-memos-pdf/pepm_090.pdf

Quote
The dénouement of Ukraine’s presidential election in January-February 2010 was as raucous as the campaign. Appearing at a victory rally on election night, Viktor Yanukovych spoke to his supporters only in Russian, even as he claimed to be grateful to “all Ukrainians.” In subsequent days, the defeated candidate, Yulia Tymoshenko, refused to accept the outcome even though all international election monitors reported that the election had been fair and legitimate...The head of the large election observer mission for the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe, Heidi Tagliavini, hailed the 2010 Ukrainian election as “a well-administered and truly competitive election offering
voters a clear choice.”

I don't think that the West should now turn around and use political corruption as an excuse to support an unconstitutional coup of a democratically elected government. 

FWIW, Tymoshenko wasn't jailed for questioning the elections.  Lots of people in Ukraine did that.  She and Yanukovych have been political adversaries for nearly 20 years.  Tymoshenko was probably arrested to prevent her from seeking office in the future.

A good summary of those events: http://helsinki.org.ua/files/docs/1321265218.pdf

As I understand it, that whole area is basically pro Russian because they are mostly Russian immigrants. 

The Crimea and the Eastern part of Ukraine are largely ethnically Russian, with the rest of the country mostly ethnic Ukrainian.  The ethnic Russia's are very pro-Russia, but the ethnic Ukrainians are more divided.  Some love the West.  Some just want to be independent of both the West and Russia.  And, some still see Russia has a valuable protectorate. 

You also have a smattering of other ethnicities that complicate things.  Moldavians, Poles, Tatars, Belarusians, etc.

1525
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
« on: March 05, 2014, 07:25:26 PM »
Ah so it's wrong to illegitimately invade another country unless you reaaallly reaallly want to, in which case it's ok?
Not at all.  I'm saying that, from Russia's perspective, they're not illegitimately invading another nation.  They're protecting the legitimately elected government from an unconstitutional coup.

And, of course, the US and EU view Russia as interfering with a 'democratic,' popular coup against a corrupt government.  But the US and EU reactions to the crisis are just as politically motivated as Russia's.  The West wants to strengthen ties with former Soviet states and contain Russia.  Russia wants to protect its sphere of influence from the West.

As I mentioned, if the government of Panama was overthrown by a 'pro-Russia' coup (or any other coup that threatened our access to the Panama Canal), then I would see no problem with the US acting to protect and reinstate the legitimately elected government.  Not only are we allies with and protectorates of that government, but also we have huge economic and military interests in it.

I'm partly playing the devil's advocate here.  I'm not super pro-Russia on this crisis.  But I also don't think that their behavior and rationale are totally off the mark.

1526
Flat Earth Theory / Re: "Empirical" Evidence
« on: March 05, 2014, 03:16:07 AM »
If soft power is about many different aspects of our culture and ideology, then it doesn't make sense for anyone to start a fake space program to increase US soft power.  It's too small an aspect of soft power.  It has too small an effect to take such a monumental risk.  That's my point.  Soft power alone isn't a rational incentive to take such serious risks.
Ever heard of those people who confuse evolution with abiogenesis? That's what you're doing right now, and that's why this is my last response to you.
This is a good example of why it's better to just state plainly why you disagree with my statement.  I genuinely don't know what point you're trying to make.  I guess you mean that I'm conflating two fundamentally disparate concepts, but I don't know which ones because you won't just say it.

You take offence to me claiming you're doing this on purpose, but the only alternative is that you have absolutely no self-awareness. I'm doing you a favour by assuming you're just an unexperienced troll.

Perhaps someone else will take you up on your trollfest, but I doubt it. In either case, best of luck.
I'm not offended.  I'm actually doing my best to respond constructively to someone who is, at this point, just calling me an ignorant, disingenuous troll over and over again (ok, the troll part is new...kudos).  I guess I have no self-awareness, but I'm not even sure what you mean by that, either.

I'm stating my responses clearly and directly.  You're name-calling and offering terse, ambiguous remarks.  Not sure what else I can do to facilitate productive discussion.

1527
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
« on: March 05, 2014, 01:03:45 AM »
The situation in short: Russia is entirely in the wrong. End.

I think I disagree.  At the very least, I think it's more complicated than that.  Ukraine is a big-time Russian national interest, and Russia has no interest in seeing a coup overthrow the democratically elected, pro-Russia, Ukrainian government.

I get that there are some important differences between these two, but I imagine the US behaving similarly if the government of Panama was overthrown in a coup supportive of Russia's national interests.  We'd probably go in and shut that shit down right away.  Kinda need that canal.

1528
Flat Earth Theory / Re: "Empirical" Evidence
« on: March 05, 2014, 12:55:01 AM »
Yes, if you tried paying attention to what I said instead of looking for ways to trip me up with semantics and empty "well-informed, thanks" rhetoric, you'd realise that this is consistent with what I said. They'd like to let it die, but they can't. Your graphs are excellent evidence of that, and I thank you for strengthening my argument.
Your constant insistence that I'm trying to be deceptive is getting tiresome.  I probably just misunderstood you.  You aren't exactly verbose, and you typically leave the reader to guess at what your point might be. 

You're merely asserting that these conspirators 'can't' let NASA die.  Even if that's true, my graphs show that NASA funding has been pretty stable since 1975.  Meanwhile, that money has been spread around to lots and lots of new endeavors, like probes, satellites, and telescopes.  It makes no sense for the conspirators to expose themselves to more risk in that way.  It makes no sense that the conspirators have the power to initiate a space program on that scale, but not to kill it.

The US isn't the global hegemon because of 'science and technology,' [...]
Again, you can restate it as much as you won't, and it still won't make your argument any more true. You need to start substantiating it if you want to get anywhere.
...at least not much beyond the contribution those two make to our military and economic strength.  It's not because of how impressed everyone is with us.

I provided you with the examples of the US, Russia, and China.  All three of these are nations that, as you agree, struggle to maintain a positive image internationally and are all consistently involved in violations of international law.  China and Russia especially struggle to make their political philosophies attractive to...anyone.  And yet, these three nations wield the greatest influence in the international community.  Contrast this with India, a nation that is both beloved and culturally influential, and, as I evidenced, internationally inept.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2013/05/22/the-virtues-of-hard-power/
Quote
Hard power has not been in vogue since the Iraq War turned badly in about 2004. In foreign policy journals and at elite conferences, the talk for years has been about “soft power,” “the power of persuasion” and the need to revitalize the U.S. State Department as opposed to the Pentagon: didn’t you know, it’s about diplomacy, not military might! Except when it isn’t; except when members of this same elite argue for humanitarian intervention in places like Libya and Syria. Then soft power be damned.

The fact is that hard power is supremely necessary in today’s world, for reasons having nothing to do with humanitarian intervention. Indeed, the Harvard professor and former government official, Joseph S. Nye, Jr., who, in 2004, actually coined the term “soft power” in an eponymous book, has always been subtle enough in his own thinking to realize how relevant hard power remains.

As I write, the two areas of the world that are most important in terms of America’s long-term economic and political interests — Asia and Europe — are undergoing power shifts. The growth of Chinese air and naval power is beginning to rearrange the correlation of forces in Asia, while the weakening of the European Union in geopolitical terms – because of its ongoing fiscal crisis — is providing an opportunity for a new Russian sphere of influence to emerge in Central and Eastern Europe. Of course, both challenges require robust diplomacy on America’s part. But fundamentally what they really require is a steadfast commitment of American hard power. And the countries in these two most vital regions are not bashful about saying so.

The coup in Ukraine is another excellent example of why hard power is so much more important to protecting national interests.  Russia is able to react to the coup in Ukraine with relative impunity due largely to the fact that they have nuclear weapons.  They've said as much explicitly.  The US and EU response isn't limited by how much they like Russia.  It's limited by the size and power of the Russian military.  It's limited by the resistance to a possible trade war with a nation that exports so much energy.  The West's desire for closer economic and political ties with Ukraine have nothing to do with Ukraine's sterling reputation (the opposite, in fact) and everything to do with the West's desire to contain Russia.

I can keep going, but you haven't yet provided any evidence that soft power is vital to US influence in foreign affairs.  You haven't provided any evidence that admiration of US 'science and technology' is critical to soft power.

Soft power is simply much, much larger and more complex than the US looking good because we went to space.  It's much broader.  It's about ideology and culture.
Absolutely agreed. The reason we're not discussing irrelevant elements of soft power is that they're irrelevant. You really need to stop trying to shift the focus of this discussion away.

I obviously think that they're relevant.  If soft power is about many different aspects of our culture and ideology, then it doesn't make sense for anyone to start a fake space program to increase US soft power.  It's too small an aspect of soft power.  It has too small an effect to take such a monumental risk.  That's my point.  Soft power alone isn't a rational incentive to take such serious risks.

That's why I linked the Nye article (oh hey, more evidence that you said I didn't provide).  It explains the important aspects of the US soft power landscape, and all of the things he talks about have vastly greater leverage on US foreign policy than NASA.

Despite its strong soft power, it has little ability to influence the behavior of nations around the globe.  If your argument were correct, then we should expect India and all its soft power to be the global hegemon. [...]
Right, now that I no longer have doubts that you have no interest in an educated debate, this conversation is over, as far as I'm concerned.

Fine by me.  I've been at least as civil as you've been, and I've done my best to engage your arguments seriously.  You just keep calling me stupid and accusing me of intentionally trying to obfuscate the discussion. 

Merely asserting that all of your claims are obviously true isn't very persuasive.

1529
Flat Earth Theory / Re: "Empirical" Evidence
« on: March 04, 2014, 09:48:49 PM »
You're correct that the individuals responsible for faking space travel have much to lose.
That admission took you long enough.
I didn't realize that it was even in contention.  Of course the individuals responsible for such a fraud have much to lose by getting caught.  I've been arguing that the United States has little to lose in terms of its foreign interests abroad.  It's allies must already know, and it's relations with its adversaries (ie. Russia) already have little to do with soft power (reputation) and everything to do with hard power (economic and military strength).

Additionally, I'm arguing that the only rational reason available to explain why such individuals would take such a risk is to convince the USSR that the US possess fully functional ICBMs.  The gains from soft power alone are minimal and unpredictable.  However, this hypothesis fails to explain why these individuals would continue the fraud and increase their risk of exposure for the next 50 years for no additional gain.

You suggest that they're just letting it die quietly.  The facts do not bear that out:




They're sure taking their sweet time.  And instead of letting it die quietly, they're sensationalizing their fake probes, fake satellites, fake space telescopes, fake astronomical images, fake space stations, fake astronauts, fake rovers, fake employees, fake rockets, fake moon rocks, etc.  Precisely none of your narrative makes any logical sense.

You've argued that you do it for something like 'reputation' or 'prestige,' but those aren't very valuable to foreign affairs.  Why risk exposure for them?
Because our dealings with the likes of the United States are quite different from those with China. Among other things, the United States are respected as one of the world's leading countries (if not simply the leading country) in science and technology, as well as the ideology they so actively promote. The ideology bit is already plunging like crazy, what with recent (and not-so-recent) news of the USA ignoring human rights or basic diplomatic protocol. Especially now, they are in a position where they cannot stop easily; although it's worth noting that they've been trying, by continuously cutting NASA's budget. Eventually, the space craze will just quietly die off. They don't want to risk exposure. They simply have to do so to avoid blowing their cover while quietly closing down the whole business.

The US isn't the global hegemon because of 'science and technology,' at least not much beyond the contribution those two make to our military and economic strength.  It's not because of how impressed everyone is with us.  To the limited extent that our scientific knowledge is impressive to other nations, and to the limited extent that it materially affects US foreign policy, sending humans into space is just a tiny part of that impression.  Personally, I think that the information and medical sectors are much more compelling to other nations.  Vastly more so than the fact that we send anyone to the Moon.

Soft power is simply much, much larger and more complex than the US looking good because we went to space.  It's much broader.  It's about ideology and culture.  Some authors, like Joseph Nye, believe that it's one of the primary forces that shapes international relations are large.  I think he's mistaken about its importance, but that's just me.  Either way, putting a human on the Moon isn't really a big part of it: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/59888/joseph-s-nye-jr/the-decline-of-americas-soft-power

4.  Hard power drives international relations, not 'reputation' or 'prestige.'
Which is exactly why nations like India are respected, eh? You can say "hard power" as many times as you want, and it will still not be the sole (or even the most important) factor driving diplomacy.

It's a term of art. 

India supports my narrative.  Despite its strong soft power, it has little ability to influence the behavior of nations around the globe.  If your argument were correct, then we should expect India and all its soft power to be the global hegemon.  They could duke it out with Denmark over Nicest Nation Ever.  Instead, India has relatively little influence over its own region.  It's still embroiled in territorial disputes with China and Pakistan with no end in sight.  "Respect" isn't really doing much for India. 

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21574511-indias-lack-strategic-culture-hobbles-its-ambition-be-force-world-can-india
Quote
NOBODY doubts that China has joined the ranks of the great powers: the idea of a G2 with America is mooted, albeit prematurely. India is often spoken of in the same breath as China because of its billion-plus population, economic promise, value as a trading partner and growing military capabilities. All five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council support—however grudgingly—India’s claim to join them. But whereas China’s rise is a given, India is still widely seen as a nearly-power that cannot quite get its act together.

Nothing about China's ideology is attractive to the global community at-large.  Why do you think they're a global power and India isn't?

1530
Flat Earth Theory / Re: "Empirical" Evidence
« on: February 27, 2014, 05:07:05 AM »
I don't see how the involvement of non-space-faring nations is relevant in this situation.

Those are all spacefaring nations.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_government_space_agencies#List_of_space_agencies_with_launch_capability
You're not even attempting to answer my questions anymore. If you plan to keep trying to sidetrack this discussion by bringing up irrelevant crap, you may as well just talk to yourself. I have better things to do than deal with your intentionally obtuse attitude.

You asked, "What makes you think they know about each other's fakery?"  I responded that I don't think it matters; but, if it does, then I think they'd likely know because they're so internationally cooperative.  I listed examples of such cooperative nations.  Then, you said, "I don't see how the involvement of non-space-faring nations is relevant in this situation."  I took you to be saying that my example nations were not spacefaring.  I responded with evidence that those nations are spacefaring.  I'm genuinely not sure what your point is since you won't just state it clearly, but I'm trying to respond to you as directly as possible.  Not sure what you're so upset about.

If I'm the one being unclear, here's my point (taking the point of view of NASA):

1.  You're correct that the individuals responsible for faking space travel have much to lose.  For the fakery narrative to make sense, they must similarly have a lot to gain.

2.  The most obvious reason I can see to fake space travel in the 50s and 60s is to prove to the USSR that you can nuke them with ICBMs.  If you believe that the USSR has ICBMs, and if you believe that you never will, then it makes some sense to try and fake it to maintain deterrence.

3.  If you don't actually have ICBMs, and if ICBMs are critical to your national interests, then it doesn't make any sense to keep pretending to go to space once you've 'proven' to the USSR that you can.  It doesn't get you any more hard power.  All it does is increase your exposure to the risk of getting caught.  There's no reason for fake space stations and fake Hubble and fake planetary probes and fake weather satellites etc.  You've argued that you do it for something like 'reputation' or 'prestige,' but those aren't very valuable to foreign affairs.  Why risk exposure for them?

4.  Hard power drives international relations, not 'reputation' or 'prestige.'  I think that nations behave according to their national interests.  The US having a space program doesn't affect those foreign interests.  At least not anything like our alliances, economy, and military do.  And, again, you yourself said that the US already has its reputation tarnished regularly by violating international law (and spying on foreign diplomats and government officials).

Your two links don't really address any of that.  The first says that life sucks hard for an Italian official who got caught stealing from their space program or something.  It doesn't say anything about that being bad for Italy or it's program or anything else.

The second says that the USSR lied about the landing location so they could say they set a world record.  It doesn't say that they flight was fake. 

1531
Flat Earth Theory / Re: "Empirical" Evidence
« on: February 25, 2014, 04:14:28 PM »
Not really.  My point has always been that the US has nothing to lose by admitting to (or getting caught) faking space travel.  Space travel has virtually no leverage on foreign affairs.
That's simply untrue, which is exactly why more and more nations, especially "controversial" ones, are trying to get there. This isn't a matter of FE vs RE anymore, this is a matter of "please read the news more often".

You have yet to provide me with a single example of how getting caught faking space flight would materially impact US foreign policy or our international relations.  I'm well-informed, thanks.  I think that our foreign policy objectives, strategies, and relations are built on hard power.  Virtually nothing about our military or economic hegemony relies on sending people or machines into space (there are obvious exceptions, like the value of GPS to our military; but, FEers believe that that tech is a fiction anyway and is really just blimps or whatever).  I also don't think that any of it relies on our 'reputation' or 'prestige.' 

China is a pretty perfect example of this.  No one trades with China because they're so trustworthy, loyal, honest, prestigious, or reputable.  They trade with China because it furthers their own national interests.  Welcome to foreign affairs.

But to your point, it's pretty hard to imagine that the US wouldn't know that the other space programs are fake.  For one thing, space programs are internationally cooperative.  This is actually the argument that most conspiracy believers make: nations like India, Japan, SK, the UK, France, etc. are all cooperating with the US to fake space travel.
I don't see how the involvement of non-space-faring nations is relevant in this situation.

Those are all spacefaring nations.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_government_space_agencies#List_of_space_agencies_with_launch_capability

For another thing, the US is really, really good at spying on other nations.  We do it all the time (see: 20th and 21st century American history).
Nah, they're good at breaking international laws in ineffective attempts to spy on citizens, which get frequently revealed. This, by the way, is the exact kind of reputation loss that they're afraid of when it comes to space programs.

What?  How naive are you?  This isn't a matter of FE vs RE anymore, this is a matter of "please read the news more often."

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/21/world/nsa-dragnet-included-allies-aid-groups-and-business-elite.html?_r=0
Quote
Britain’s Government Communications Headquarters, working closely with the National Security Agency, monitored the communications of senior European Union officials, foreign leaders including African heads of state and sometimes their family members, directors of United Nations and other relief programs, and officials overseeing oil and finance ministries, according to the documents. In addition to Israel, some targets involved close allies like France and Germany, where tensions have already erupted over recent revelations about spying by the N.S.A.

Also, why would the US be afraid of losing 'reputation' when it already happens frequently?  In other words, if US violations of international law are, as you put it, "frequently revealed," then why would anyone care about this particular instance?

Why?  Will the globe forget that we have ICBMs? [...]
Please stop trying to sidetrack this discussion.

I was responding directly to your point.  You said, "This isn't a competition that you win and forget about."  Why is that true?  Why does the US have to continually find new ways to remind the world that they can go to space in order to maintain its hegemony?  Why is going to space at all even necessary?  You haven't even explained that.  I'm the one who made that argument for you. 

e: I keep typing 'space-fairing' instead of spacefaring.  Goddamn.

1532
Flat Earth Theory / Re: "Empirical" Evidence
« on: February 24, 2014, 05:40:39 PM »
I don't see what difference it makes, anyway.
Well, it's absolutely key to the point you're making, so it makes a difference between you having a point and not having one.

Not really.  My point has always been that the US has nothing to lose by admitting to (or getting caught) faking space travel.  Space travel has virtually no leverage on foreign affairs.  This is true regardless of what US officials believe about other space programs.  It doesn't really matter, though; it's pointless speculation.

But to your point, it's pretty hard to imagine that the US wouldn't know that the other space programs are fake.  For one thing, space programs are internationally cooperative.  This is actually the argument that most conspiracy believers make: nations like India, Japan, SK, the UK, France, etc. are all cooperating with the US to fake space travel.  For another thing, the US is really, really good at spying on other nations.  We do it all the time (see: 20th and 21st century American history).

The problem with this narrative (especially if you're correct about their ignorance of each other's fakery) is that it fails to explain the following 50 years of space flight.  If you faked the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo missions in order to prove to the USSR that you have ICBMs, then why would you continue to risk exposing your fraud after they've already been convinced?
To maintain legitimacy. This isn't a competition that you win and forget about.

Why?  Will the globe forget that we have ICBMs?  Will Russia?  If the US came out today and said, "Yo dudes, all these ICBMs are fake.  We don't really have any at all," what do you think would really change?  Do you believe that ICBMs are still essential to deter Russia and project US power abroad?

1533
Flat Earth Theory / Re: "Empirical" Evidence
« on: February 24, 2014, 05:02:31 PM »
I think it makes even less sense for space-fairing nations to be troubled over the repercussions of getting caught faking space travel.  All of the space-fairing nations already know that it's fake.  As you said, they're all in it together.  They lose nothing relative to one another.
What makes you think they know about each other's fakery?

I don't.  I think the empirical evidence proving the legitimacy of space flight is overwhelming.  Even if I didn't, I'm not sure how I could answer that question since there is precisely zero empirical evidence on what these allegedly-fake space programs do or don't know about other allegedly-fake space programs.

I don't see what difference it makes, anyway.  I take the point of the OP to be skeptical of the narrative that space-fairing nations would go to such great lengths to fake being good at something that ultimately has little to no impact on foreign affairs.

In my view, the best argument you could make here is that the US and USSR needed to prove to one another during the Cold War that they had achieved ICBMs, that a 'peaceful' space program was the best means of developing and testing this technology, and that ICBMs certainly did have an enormous impact on foreign affairs in the second half of the 20th century.  Thus, if ICBMs are impossible, then both sides went to the trouble of faking space flight in order to convince the other that they had achieved them in order to maintain nuclear deterrence.

The problem with this narrative (especially if you're correct about their ignorance of each other's fakery) is that it fails to explain the following 50 years of space flight.  If you faked the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo missions in order to prove to the USSR that you have ICBMs, then why would you continue to risk exposing your fraud after they've already been convinced?

1534
Flat Earth Theory / Re: "Empirical" Evidence
« on: February 24, 2014, 07:18:27 AM »
Why do you keep thinking this has anything to do with populations after I explicitly said it doesn't?

If Russia said "Hey, America faked their space programme, the Earth is actually flat!", everyone would have to stop and think "wait, but you said it was round, and provided pictures!".

I took "everyone" in this sentence to mean all of the people in those nations.  I had not read your 'petrol station' comment.

I think it makes even less sense for space-fairing nations to be troubled over the repercussions of getting caught faking space travel.  All of the space-fairing nations already know that it's fake.  As you said, they're all in it together.  They lose nothing relative to one another.

As for every other nation: why would that knowledge really change for them?  What are they going to do?  Get mad and stomp their feet?


1535
Flat Earth Theory / Re: "Empirical" Evidence
« on: February 23, 2014, 03:45:33 PM »
I would think that America or Russia would have loved to show that the other side faked their space program during the cold war.  Sorta like how America was publicly embarrassed when a U-2 spy plane was shot down by the Russians after America said that they weren't sending spy planes to fly over Russia.
Ah, yes, but your example is missing a "tu quoque" element to it. If Russia said "Hey, America faked their space programme, the Earth is actually flat!", everyone would have to stop and think "wait, but you said it was round, and provided pictures!".

Discrediting the other side is all well and good, but they're in this together. Besides, as Tintagel said, they probably don't even know about this.

Both Russia and the US are regularly accused of lying to their populations.  Getting caught for the nth time doesn't really mean much to either government.  It happens all the time.  And what would "everyone" do about it, anyway?  Suppose the government comes out and says, "Yo dudes, we've been faking all this space stuff.  Later."  I bet everyone still goes to work the next day.  All the other space-faring nations are faking it, too, so it isn't like any of them would have anything to say or do about it.

1536
Suggestions & Concerns / I suggest that you discuss the Flat Earth Theory
« on: January 30, 2014, 04:19:08 PM »
tl;dr: I just don't see the point in starting these boards if all of the people who know the most about FET almost exclusively restrict their posts to threads about the NFL and Star Trek.

What exactly are y'all planning on saying in the press release?  "New FES splinters from old and starts forum for discussing Star Trek and Bitcoin."  So far, that's about the sum of it.

I get that these new boards were founded by users who were on .org for a very long time and who discussed FET with others so much that it got old.  And, I get that these users grew tired of having the same debate/argument over and over again.  That makes perfect sense.  But if this site contains only (or mostly) FEB-ers who explicitly look down on posting about FET (Thork) because it's too lame or easy or tiresome or whatever, then why not just start a social club and ditch the FES aspect of it all?  What's the point?

My sarcastic tone aside, this is a genuine suggestion.  And hopefully it's obvious that this isn't a TK-style plea for attention to my posts since I basically only post here once a week and only to argue with Tom.  The people who know the most about this subject and who have the most to add should use the upper boards as a way to advance that knowledge.  Maybe this requires a fresh outlook, attitude, or process for the upper boards.  Maybe they need a new directive or function.  I dunno.  It just seems silly to me to start a new FES and then never really discuss FET.

e: I feel like it's worth adding that this isn't at all meant to be a OMG U DOODS SUCK post.  There is a lot to like about the new site and the new leadership.  Y'all are actually proactive and appear to be advancing a real agenda, and that's definitely laudable.  And, the new site itself obviously runs much better than .org now that people are actually running and paying attention to the site.  But once those things start working and you start bringing new people to these boards, what are they going to see?  What is someone who is directed by your press release to this site going to see?  They're going to see a few random, disjointed threads that are sometimes only tangentially related to FET (you can blame me for at least one of those), and then a bunch of threads about random stuff.

1537
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: January 21, 2014, 09:23:13 PM »
As for racial bias, give me a break. Richard Sherman is a fucking asshole. People dislike him because he's an asshole. Don't even try and compare Philip Rivers and Richard Sherman. There are a lot of differences beyond race. Philip Rivers doesn't tell sports commentators that he's better at life than them, nor does he get into feuds saying he's better than the best player at his position (Revis).

I just don't see how Sherman's trash talk is any different than any of the other trash talk in the media and on the field.  NFL fans and NFL media tend to laud this behavior in white athletes for 'playing with a chip on his shoulder.'  Just look at how the media talks about Tom Brady.  The same people tend to criticize this behavior in black athletes.  They're disproportionately characterized as arrogant, hostile, overly-aggressive, bad sports, and stupid.  Again, just to be clear, I'm talking in generalities about our national discourse, not you specifically.  I don't want to be misunderstood to be calling anyone a racist for disliking a football player.

And I really don't see any argument for Revis being better than Sherman this season.

http://deadspin.com/a-guide-to-richard-sherman-your-new-favorite-nfl-playe-1504931508
Quote
To start, let's go to our favorite individual metric for coverage, Pro Football Focus's yards per snap in coverage. This stat measures how many yards a defensive back's assigned man gets for every snap he's in coverage. So if a cornerback drops into coverage 50 times in a game and gives up 100 total yards, the number will be 2; if he drops back those same 50 times and gives up 25 yards, it's 0.5. Sherman's number is 0.77 yards per coverage snap—second in the league behind Darrelle Revis's 0.72. This is a preposterous number on its own, but Sherman's targets per snap in coverage—the Deion metric, basically—is 9.5, the best figure in the last two years. There's a huge drop down to Revis at 8.8, and another huge drop to 7.7 for third place Patrick Peterson and Keenen Lewis.

Sherman also leads the league in interceptions, QB Rating against, and coverage snaps per reception, and has one of the lowest ratios of YAC to total yards allowed of all cornerbacks.

And Revis isn't even top-50 in WPA this season: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/defenderstats.php?pos=CB

Also this video

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-films-presents/0ap2000000254372/NFL-Films-Presents-The-trash-talking-cornerback

1538
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: January 21, 2014, 05:42:44 PM »
Sherman was caught taking adderall, not steroids.  Given his reputation for hard work and studiousness, I'd say it's at least an even money bet that he was using it as a study aid.  Sherman is far from the most athletic corner in the game.  But if you want to reason that if some players were caught taking PEDs then all players must be taking PEDs, go for it.

Frankly, my love and endearment for Richard Sherman has skyrocketed in the last 24 hours. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/isaac-saul/what-richard-sherman-taught-us_b_4631980.html
Quote
This is a guy who represents one of the best kinds of sports stories there is in the world: the rise from the bottom, the profound destruction of obstacles, the honest success story built by a foundation of hard work and loving parents. If anyone with a brain took the time to learn about Richard Sherman, and then put him in the context of the rest of the National Football League, he'd be a pretty hard guy to bash.

He made an asshole comment about a receiver he genuinely dislikes, and then a bunch of people called him a nigger for it.  When Philip Rivers talks shit on Jay Cutler, everyone lauds his passion and intensity.  He's praised for it.  Even when it's criticized, it's done so with an almost absurd politeness.  Google 'Philip Rivers trash talk' and check out what you get:

No mistaking the player, but Rivers the person is just misunderstood
Philip Rivers is the emotional heart and soul of the Chargers
Chargers QB Philip Rivers Is an Entertaining Fellow

These are just some examples, and to be clear I'm absolutely not suggesting that anyone in this thread, or anyone else who dislikes Sherman, is a racist.  But, I do think that both the level of scrutiny this event has been given, and the intensity of the negative reactions to it, does speak to a kind of systematic racial bias or preference that definitely still exists.  I think that that bias is having a strong effect on the way our society is talking about this event.

1539
Arts & Entertainment / Re: Official Sports Thread
« on: January 21, 2014, 03:28:20 AM »
Life is real good right now.

I thought the way Sherman acted was kind of a dick move, but he's a hard guy to hate.  I'm biased to be sure, but I can't dog the guy too much for acting out just moments after making the Superbowl on the biggest play of his life against a player he genuinely dislikes. 

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/01/20/richard-sherman-interview-michael-crabtree/
Quote
A lot of what I said to Andrews was adrenaline talking, and some of that was Crabtree. I just don’t like him.

It was loud, it was in the moment, and it was just a small part of the person I am.

1540
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Show me proof of a flat earth.
« on: January 17, 2014, 05:56:17 PM »
To reproduce, do the following in photoshop:

add sharpness
add light to shadows
the earths imaged during A11 appear tampered with.

Also, why do you get to sharpen the image?  I dunno much about digital imaging, but I gather that sharpening parts of an image increases contrast between different pixels, and it exaggerates artifacts in images.

http://www.cambridgeincolour.com/tutorials/unsharp-mask.htm
Quote
Note how it does not transform the edges of the letter into an ideal "step," but instead exaggerates the light and dark edges of the transition. An unsharp mask improves sharpness by increasing acutance, although resolution remains the same...

Unsharp masks are wonderful at sharpening images, however too much sharpening can also introduce "halo artifacts." These are visible as light/dark outlines or halos near edges. Halos artifacts become a problem when the light and dark over and undershoots become so large that they are clearly visible at the intended viewing distance...

Another complication of using an unsharp mask is that it can introduce subtle color shifts. Normal unsharp masks increase the over and undershoot of the RGB pixel values similarly, as opposed to only increasing the over and undershoots of luminance. In situations where very fine color texture exists, this can selectively increase some colors while decreasing others.

http://www.scantips.com/simple6.html
Quote
Sharpening will greatly emphasize dust spots and will aggravate JPG artifacts.

To be honest, I can't even replicate what Jack White shows on his page.  Your final images looks much different than his.  It would be nice to know exactly what he did to the images so that we could subject obviously genuine photos to his method and test for false positives.  I imagine that that's exactly why he didn't bother to provide those details.

This is the closest I've come:




It looks just like the stair-step pattern/ringing artifacts I demonstrated previously.  I get the same thing if I sharpen the image with Smart Sharpen.



Until someone can reproduce the image Jack White did, I'm not sure why I should even believe that he didn't just directly edit the image himself to make it look as it does.

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