Ghost of V

How do you think humanity will end?
« on: March 16, 2015, 06:52:44 PM »
According to the Future of Humanity Institute there are a few ways that humanity could end. Some very sci-fi causes, some more realistic. I think this topic is pretty interesting for a few reasons. It's hard to imagine humanity simply ending, but it is seemingly inevitable according to this institute's 'research'. Also, everything has to end. While I think most of this has to do with theory-crafting and speculation, it's still pretty interesting to consider the ways we could go out (listed below according to FHI).



Personally I'm a big fan of the super intelligent robots theory. I'm not sure how they got the percentage they did, especially considering the fact that we don't have anything close to super intelligent AI right now. It seems like they'd have to develop sentience, or at least artificial sentience to be able to pull something like this off. Also, molecular nanotech seems completely unrealistic as well, although I suppose it's possible.

The more realistic option, of course, is nuclear holocaust... which apparently has a lower chance of happening than super intelligent robots and nanotechnology taking over the world. I don't know how, considering that nuclear bombs exists while super smart AI does not. "Wars" is also a pretty vague one, but entirely possible and probably religiously or financially inspired. I'm surprised that meteorites or other external threats are not listed, because a meteorite could certainly cause human extinction. Basically, I think FHI is bullshit and that they don't really know what they're talking about. I'm not certain how they got these percentages, but I guess that's besides the point of the bigger picture.

Not really sure what the point of this is. I just think the topic is interesting. What do you think is going to kill off humanity?
« Last Edit: March 16, 2015, 06:54:39 PM by Vauxhall »

Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2015, 06:59:38 PM »
lol, why is natural pandemic so low? The most likely way for us to be wiped out is through natural means, either extraterrestrial or Earth-bound issues. A super volcano could fuck us up badly, the Earth could get hammered by gamma rays or a 1km asteroid. We might find some crazy virus with the perfect attributes to wipe out modern civilisation.

Nanotechnology is so far away from being weaponized in such a way that it could wipe out life, and an AI isn't really a realistic possibility is it?

Ghost of V

Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #2 on: March 16, 2015, 07:04:46 PM »
lol, why is natural pandemic so low? The most likely way for us to be wiped out is through natural means, either extraterrestrial or Earth-bound issues. A super volcano could fuck us up badly, the Earth could get hammered by gamma rays or a 1km asteroid. We might find some crazy virus with the perfect attributes to wipe out modern civilisation.

Nanotechnology is so far away from being weaponized in such a way that it could wipe out life, and an AI isn't really a realistic possibility is it?

I think FHI's chart is focused on how humans could kill humans. Certainly natural causes are far more likely than super intelligent robots or gray goo. However, I think nuclear holocaust and engineered pandemic should be much higher than they are, especially when we look at the alternatives.

Wait nevermind, "natural pandemic". Well, like I said, this chart is retarted.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2015, 07:24:01 PM by Vauxhall »

Thork

Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2015, 07:20:00 PM »
lol, why is natural pandemic so low? The most likely way for us to be wiped out is through natural means, either extraterrestrial or Earth-bound issues.
No it isn't. There can be no more pandemics. You only get pandemics when civilisations meet. All civilisations have now met. We aren't going to meet a new set of people who will give us a version of chicken pox that will kill us as happened to the aztecs. Or syphilis as happened to Europeans from the Native Americans. Or the plague which came from trade routes into the far East.

Pandemic is dead. Ignore CNN and their Ebola bollocks. New diseases (bird flu or swine flu being examples) do not go pandemic.

I'd opt for starvation. The rich 0.01% owning everything until the poor cannot feed themselves and have little to offer as machines can do almost all jobs. Economic genocide. 

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Offline beardo

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Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2015, 07:22:46 PM »
Muslim takeover.
The Mastery.

Rama Set

Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2015, 07:45:01 PM »
lol, why is natural pandemic so low? The most likely way for us to be wiped out is through natural means, either extraterrestrial or Earth-bound issues.
No it isn't. There can be no more pandemics. You only get pandemics when civilisations meet. All civilisations have now met. We aren't going to meet a new set of people who will give us a version of chicken pox that will kill us as happened to the aztecs. Or syphilis as happened to Europeans from the Native Americans. Or the plague which came from trade routes into the far East.

Pandemic is dead. Ignore CNN and their Ebola bollocks. New diseases (bird flu or swine flu being examples) do not go pandemic.

I'd opt for starvation. The rich 0.01% owning everything until the poor cannot feed themselves and have little to offer as machines can do almost all jobs. Economic genocide. 

Spanish influenza killed more people than WWI in a single year.

Anyway, nuclear annihilation at the hands of muslim extremists is our inevitable end.

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Offline Pete Svarrior

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Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2015, 08:45:16 PM »
Feminism.
Read the FAQ before asking your question - chances are we already addressed it.
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If we are not speculating then we must assume

Ghost of V

Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2015, 08:48:01 PM »

Saddam Hussein

Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2015, 08:48:40 PM »
According to the Future of Humanity Institute there are a few ways that humanity could end. Some very sci-fi causes, some more realistic. I think this topic is pretty interesting for a few reasons. It's hard to imagine humanity simply ending, but it is seemingly inevitable according to this institute's 'research'. Also, everything has to end. While I think most of this has to do with theory-crafting and speculation, it's still pretty interesting to consider the ways we could go out (listed below according to FHI).



Personally I'm a big fan of the super intelligent robots theory. I'm not sure how they got the percentage they did, especially considering the fact that we don't have anything close to super intelligent AI right now. It seems like they'd have to develop sentience, or at least artificial sentience to be able to pull something like this off. Also, molecular nanotech seems completely unrealistic as well, although I suppose it's possible.

The more realistic option, of course, is nuclear holocaust... which apparently has a lower chance of happening than super intelligent robots and nanotechnology taking over the world. I don't know how, considering that nuclear bombs exists while super smart AI does not. "Wars" is also a pretty vague one, but entirely possible and probably religiously or financially inspired. I'm surprised that meteorites or other external threats are not listed, because a meteorite could certainly cause human extinction. Basically, I think FHI is bullshit and that they don't really know what they're talking about. I'm not certain how they got these percentages, but I guess that's besides the point of the bigger picture.

Not really sure what the point of this is. I just think the topic is interesting. What do you think is going to kill off humanity?

Do you have a source for this?  I'm trying to look it up, but I'm not finding anything.  I have found some other lists, like this one, but none of them seem to be at all similar to the one in the OP.

Feminism.

You can't spell "humanity" without "man."  How very patriarchal.

Ghost of V

Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2015, 08:52:38 PM »
Do you have a source for this?  I'm trying to look it up, but I'm not finding anything.  I have found some other lists, like this one, but none of them seem to be at all similar to the one in the OP.


http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf

The table itself is taken from wikipedia. I believe this information was collected via survey.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2015, 08:54:39 PM by Vauxhall »

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Offline Ghost Spaghetti

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Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #10 on: March 16, 2015, 09:35:36 PM »
We'll be usurped by our successors, whether that's artificial intelligence, hyper-augmentation, a biologically superior species, chances are that it'll happen so gradually that we won't even notice that we're not human as we would recognise them anymore.

I can fully imagine some post-humans sitting around asking themselves exactly the same question, phrased identically.

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Offline Rushy

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Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #11 on: March 16, 2015, 10:42:28 PM »
Why does it look like this site more or less made up probabilities? You can't estimate the probability of something happening unless you know all (or at least most) of the possible outcomes. e.g. why is "molecular nanotechnology weapons" more prominent than nuclear warf when one exists and the other one doesn't? The same deal with AI? We can't be sure those things will even be real by 2100, much less be more likely to happen than nuclear war.

Ghost of V

Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #12 on: March 16, 2015, 10:56:52 PM »
Why does it look like this site more or less made up probabilities? You can't estimate the probability of something happening unless you know all (or at least most) of the possible outcomes. e.g. why is "molecular nanotechnology weapons" more prominent than nuclear warf when one exists and the other one doesn't? The same deal with AI? We can't be sure those things will even be real by 2100, much less be more likely to happen than nuclear war.

I don't know. Wikipedia felt this was an accurate chart, as it has not been edited out and there is no citation of accuracy for it. I guess this is how they spend their stolen money.

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Offline Rushy

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Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #13 on: March 16, 2015, 10:58:48 PM »
Wikipedia felt this was an accurate chart

 :-\


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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #15 on: March 16, 2015, 11:29:05 PM »
These numbers look like a "What COULD kill us all" rather than a "what WILL kill us all".

Killing humanity is hard.  We've gotten to the point where we could survive in isolated, self-sustaining areas underground, even if the surface was an icy rock.  It wouldn't be fun or easy, but humanity would likely survive.

A nanotech weapon is so sci-fi that we have no clue how to deal with it.  And like the atom bomb, we'd likely make the weapon before we figured out how to stop it.  And since our fleshy bodies are likely not able deal with a nanotech, it could wipe us out before we can deal with it.  Remember, washing your hands won't stop the nanites.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Offline Particle Person

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Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #16 on: March 16, 2015, 11:33:40 PM »
These numbers look like a "What COULD kill us all" rather than a "what WILL kill us all".

Yeah, that's kind of the entire point.
Your mom is when your mom and you arent your mom.

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #17 on: March 17, 2015, 12:20:59 AM »
These numbers look like a "What COULD kill us all" rather than a "what WILL kill us all".

Yeah, that's kind of the entire point.
That's not what the OP implied.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

Ghost of V

Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #18 on: March 17, 2015, 12:25:09 AM »
These numbers look like a "What COULD kill us all" rather than a "what WILL kill us all".

Yeah, that's kind of the entire point.
That's not what the OP implied.


What do you think is going to kill off humanity?

Kinda implies "could" and personal opinion.




A nanotech weapon is so sci-fi that we have no clue how to deal with it.  And like the atom bomb, we'd likely make the weapon before we figured out how to stop it.  And since our fleshy bodies are likely not able deal with a nanotech, it could wipe us out before we can deal with it.  Remember, washing your hands won't stop the nanites.

Do we have anything similar to nanotech at this time? I always thought nanomachines and the like were in the realm of sci-fi.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2015, 12:28:58 AM by Vauxhall »

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: How do you think humanity will end?
« Reply #19 on: March 17, 2015, 01:45:42 AM »
These numbers look like a "What COULD kill us all" rather than a "what WILL kill us all".

Yeah, that's kind of the entire point.
That's not what the OP implied.


What do you think is going to kill off humanity?

Kinda implies "could" and personal opinion.
Yeah but what I got is more of a "This is the most likely scenario" when the list really reads like "This is the most likely to kill humans if it happened."

Or to put it another way:

OP: How likely is this to happen?
Me: If this happened, how likely would it wipe out humanity?

Quote
A nanotech weapon is so sci-fi that we have no clue how to deal with it.  And like the atom bomb, we'd likely make the weapon before we figured out how to stop it.  And since our fleshy bodies are likely not able deal with a nanotech, it could wipe us out before we can deal with it.  Remember, washing your hands won't stop the nanites.

Do we have anything similar to nanotech at this time? I always thought nanomachines and the like were in the realm of sci-fi.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/health/a14381/this-nanoinjector-inserts-dna-into-cells/

Yes.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.