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Offline Iceman

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1360 on: July 05, 2022, 11:21:24 PM »
Mike Grier announced as the New GM of the San Jose Sharks. Great story in its own right, as the culmination of a well deserved rise to the front office after a long career spanning all parts of the game.

But it’s made better that his brother Chris is also a GM of a professional sports team.  The Miami Dolphins. A pro sports team named after a marine animal, whose primary colour is teal. The lord doth work in mysterious ways.

Holy holy is the spud?

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Offline Iceman

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1361 on: September 08, 2022, 02:02:28 PM »
Football of the NFL variety is back. This is good for everyone. Except my team, but that’s OK.

Thanks Joe Biden!

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Offline Shane

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1362 on: September 08, 2022, 02:08:53 PM »
The patriots are going to win maybe 8 games very great. 

But hey, I will finally win fancy football this year, in at least one of my leagues. I can feel it. 
Quote from: Tom Bishop
wow triggered

Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1363 on: September 12, 2022, 12:13:25 AM »
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Offline Rama Set

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1364 on: September 12, 2022, 12:59:16 AM »
Unsubscribe
Th*rk is the worst person on this website.

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Offline Iceman

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1365 on: September 13, 2022, 06:33:29 PM »
Seabirds - donkeys MNF match was a delightful mess. Pure delicious irony to that finish.  Will likely be our only win for the next little bit

Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1366 on: October 08, 2022, 12:38:30 AM »
i am extremely here for watching the broncos collapse just four weeks into wilson's contract
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Offline Shane

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1367 on: October 08, 2022, 01:02:39 AM »
Bailey Zappe very good bowl mvp this season.  Take  that to the bank
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Offline Iceman

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1368 on: October 09, 2022, 01:44:07 AM »
i am extremely here for watching the broncos collapse just four weeks into wilson's contract

It has been wildly cathartic.

Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1369 on: October 20, 2022, 11:29:22 PM »
i found a treasure trove of high-quality nfl data. i made a plot. it's not especially informative, but it looks neat imo. go chefs.

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Offline Iceman

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1370 on: October 21, 2022, 03:16:50 PM »
Where did you find this? That’s a cool visual.

I don’t fully know how to read the details out of it, but it seems to show Jaylen actually has progressed into an elite big play QB and makes this year’s QB chaos pop out. All those back-ups and journeymen seem to be doing well - Mariota, Geno looking good, then I don’t know what to make of the double peaks on TEN and MIN

Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1371 on: October 21, 2022, 04:47:59 PM »
thanks fam

i got the data from some shit called the nflverse, but i made the plot myself. lol most of my time has been spent tweaking the colors. it needs a caption for sure.

i'm most surprised that nfl passing across the board is dominated by low epa plays. the distributions in general are a lot more similar than i would have expected. like i think if you just showed me one of the distributions at random, i wouldn't have any idea if it was associated with a good offense or a bad one. i'm looking into the data more carefully to see if i'm making an error in the way i group them. lol that is entirely possible.
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Offline Iceman

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1372 on: October 21, 2022, 06:31:04 PM »
The primary peak sitting at ~ -0.75 EPA seemed a bit weird that it was so consistent, but I’m neither a stats guy nor an advanced analytics guru (more of an idiot-savant).

I don’t know whether I was reading them right or not, and it would be hard to tell what one meant on its own, without being attached to a team where I can compared stats and ‘eye-test’ results… but qualitatively, I think there’s some reasonable and meaningful trends sitting on that plot.

At the very least, it looks pretty cool as is, and ya gotta be happy with KC on top

Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1373 on: October 25, 2022, 05:44:16 PM »
here's the state of the nfl today. fyi, negative numbers are good for defense, so the upper right quadrant is the good quadrant, and the lower left is the bad one. the jets are probably frauds. philly's defense has to come back down to earth sometime, but their offense may be legit. the giants may be getting mildly lucky.



The primary peak sitting at ~ -0.75 EPA seemed a bit weird that it was so consistent

i was puzzled by that, too, but i guess when you think about all the incompletions and run/pass plays that only go for a few yards or less, probably most nfl plays have a slightly negative EPA. i think the other thing that's happening is that it's difficult to judge the relative heights of the primary peaks with respect to each team. i'd expect buffalo and kc to have smaller peaks there than, say denver and carolina.

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Offline Roundy

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1374 on: October 25, 2022, 10:29:28 PM »
Man it's a good time to be a Philadelphia fan.  :)
Dr. Frank is a physicist. He says it's impossible. So it's impossible.
My friends, please remember Tom said this the next time you fall into the trap of engaging him, and thank you. :)

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Offline Iceman

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1375 on: October 25, 2022, 11:43:33 PM »
Now you just have to play the fun game of putting arrows to show where you think those surprising teams are heading ROS.

Detroit is heading straight right if they get their offensive stars back.

Same for Miami, assuming Tua can stay healthy

I have no idea where Washington is heading.

Have to expect SF to make a big shift towards good once the D gets healthy again and Jimmy starts throwing dump offs to CMC.

Denver’s offense can’t stay this bad, even with Javonte out. But I wouldn’t be pissed if they did and the hawks end up with another top 5 pick out of this.

Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1376 on: October 26, 2022, 12:34:46 AM »
i made a goof. i incorrectly filtered out some plays on my last plot that skewed the results. here is a better set. for reference, wpa is contextual and considers every play, e.g. scoring a touchdown when you're tied increases your odds of winning more than scoring when you're down by 69. epa, however, does not care about context, e.g. scoring a touchdown always adds the same expected value. to reduce systematic error due to game situations, epa only considers plays where the score is close (within 2 scores) and time is not a factor (more than 2 minutes remaining).

in other words, epa is "how good are you at moving/stopping the handegg in typical situations," and wpa is "how good are you at improving your odds of winning handegg games."

why bother with two metrics? well, let's say patrick mahomes throws an interception to end a game against the bills (yikes!). wpa is sensitive to the fact that this interception ended the game, so it penalizes this pic more than one thrown in, say, the first quarter of the game. but is mahomes (or any quarterback) really more likely to throw a pic in the 1st quarter than the 4th? if you think so, then wpa is your stat. if, however, you think player performance does not drastically change with respect to situation, then you wanna look to epa.

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Offline junker

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1377 on: October 26, 2022, 02:55:16 AM »
69ers just want to grill for god's sake

Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1378 on: October 29, 2022, 04:43:26 PM »
i changed some of the aesthetics on these plots to make them easier to read. i also made a new plot that is pretty interesting imo. this is average team wpa vs average team epa across all non-special-teams plays this season.

one way to read this plot is to look at vertical slices of ~constant epa per play. for example, the raiders and the giants both have the same average epa per play, but the giants have positive wpa per play while the raiders have negative wpa per play. in other words, both the raiders and the giants are equally effective at playing football, but the giants are performing better in situations that have a greater impact on the outcome of the game. and that is nicely reflected in their relative win percentages.

i'll leave it up to the reader to decide if that disparity is the result of things like poor situational coaching, team chemistry, "clutch" factor, momentum, or simply random variation.

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Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1379 on: November 06, 2022, 02:57:19 PM »
the state of the nfl going into today's games. go chefs.

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