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Offline Rushy

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #60 on: December 09, 2015, 04:02:36 AM »


#Trump2016

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Offline Fortuna

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #61 on: December 09, 2015, 04:42:48 AM »
People like Trump because he's honest. That's pretty much unheard of for a politician, but I think his shitty, anti-liberty ideas trump that fact.


Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #63 on: December 09, 2015, 07:55:36 AM »
There is still another possibility: a third Obama term.

In fact, Congressional Representative Jose Serrano of New York has introduced a bill to repeal the 22nd Amendment, which limits the number of terms a U.S. President may serve.

But it doesn't even have to get to this stage: all that is needed is a declaration of martial law (ongoing terrorist uprisings, or a "nuclear" 9/11); so that the existing president remains in office until the emergency passes (some kind of event which will prevent the actual national election from taking place).


Preferably, we can succeed through coercive means short of military force. We should be open to negotiations with Iran. But always remember that they should not be deemed a success when they only lead to further negotiations. Stronger pressure shouldn’t be postponed in the expectation our forbearance will encourage Iran to act in good faith. Nothing in our experience with Iran suggests it considers such gestures as anything other than a lack of resolve on our part.

Ultimately however, we must remember that their ambitions so far have come with a high tolerance for pain. Therefore, even as we work through the United Nations and with the international community on sanctions and negotiations, we should operate on a dual track. We should also be preparing our allies, and the world, for the reality that unfortunately, if all else fails, preventing a nuclear Iran may require a military solution.


M. Rubio


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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #64 on: December 10, 2015, 05:36:48 AM »
There is still another possibility: a third Obama term.

In fact, Congressional Representative Jose Serrano of New York has introduced a bill to repeal the 22nd Amendment, which limits the number of terms a U.S. President may serve.

But it doesn't even have to get to this stage: all that is needed is a declaration of martial law (ongoing terrorist uprisings, or a "nuclear" 9/11); so that the existing president remains in office until the emergency passes (some kind of event which will prevent the actual national election from taking place)


No.
Jose Serrano has been proposing this bill since 1993.  It has never made a floor vote.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Offline Ghost Spaghetti

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #65 on: December 10, 2015, 09:11:03 AM »
I'm willing to bet a month's worth of wages that Obama won't get a third term.

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Offline Snupes

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #66 on: December 10, 2015, 09:16:28 AM »
m8 I'd bet the rest of the money I earn in my life that he won't. I actually, sincerely told my conspiracy theorist brother in law I'd give him every dime I make from now 'til I die if Obama gets a third term. He very firmly believed he would, but wasn't willing to bet anything.
There are cigarettes in joints. You don't smoke it by itself.

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #67 on: December 10, 2015, 09:51:19 AM »
m8 I'd bet the rest of the money I earn in my life that he won't. I actually, sincerely told my conspiracy theorist brother in law I'd give him every dime I make from now 'til I die if Obama gets a third term. He very firmly believed he would, but wasn't willing to bet anything.
Then he didn't believe it.


Also I remember when it was bush getting a 3rd term.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #68 on: December 10, 2015, 07:39:36 PM »
You mean this?

You'll want war soon when Iran gives a nuke to ISIS who then nukes London.

Iran is Shia, ISIS is Sunni, they hate each other that's why you're cosying up, if anyone gives them nukes it wil be the Saudi's and they have been buddies with the Republicans for years.





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Offline Fortuna

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #69 on: December 11, 2015, 01:19:12 AM »
If ISIS nuked London, I don't think very many people would have the slightest problem with indiscriminately carpet bombing all of Syria. That would be a pretty suicidal move.

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Offline beardo

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #70 on: December 11, 2015, 11:12:16 AM »
Banning muslims from coming to the US is a very bad idea. Where would they go instead? Oh yeah, Europe.
The Mastery.

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #71 on: December 11, 2015, 07:51:28 PM »
If a major war breaks out in 2016, the chances of a third Obama term increase greatly.

Other than that, the winner will be whichever candidate will gain/attract the votes which would have been given to Trump.

Of course, should any of the main candidates choose to run as an independent/third party (including Sanders), it will make it easier to pick out the winner ahead of time.

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #72 on: December 12, 2015, 07:28:26 PM »
Let us focus on the Republican primaries.

Obviously, in Iowa, the evangelical vote will matter most.

So, one week later, the candidate who wins Iowa might get second or third place in NH.

Given the large number of well-known strong candidates, the SC primary might not be a clear indication of what will happen three months down the road.

Then, on March 1, the evangelical vote will be of considerable importance, especially if one of the candidates is from a home state.

The number of candidates will then narrow considerably: conservative side vs. moderate (establishment) side.

-a brokered convention might be possible
-sudden major surprises (one the main candidates dropping out for whatever reason, choosing to run as an independent) are also possible


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Offline Rushy

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #74 on: December 12, 2015, 08:05:02 PM »
Sanders has no chance at all of winning. The election is being more or less setup to ensure that Hillary wins, regardless of anyone else that gets in the way. She is the one that corporations want to see in office.


Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #75 on: December 12, 2015, 08:25:08 PM »
Corporations have more to worry about than Clinton's chances of actually winning anything (imagine having to go against a Cruz-Carson ticket): the Fed gradually raising rates in 2016 to some 1%, the looming possibility of a war breaking out in the ME.

It is true that each of the previous presidential contests in the US has been staged (not by corporations but to a low degree; the decisions are always taken at the highest levels of the most powerful secret societies), but this time around there would have been no need to bring Trump into the political process in order to get Clinton elected; this is why the actual analysis is more complex.

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Offline Rushy

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #76 on: December 13, 2015, 01:29:42 AM »
The analysis isn't complex. The candidate that receives the most money wins.

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #77 on: December 13, 2015, 07:09:01 AM »
Certainly money is important up to a certain point.

There have been many analysts who have written articles with titles like, "Is Trump Running A False Flag Campaign", "Is Donald Trump A Democratic Secret Agent", "Is Trump Working For Hillary"...

Such an outcome would mean the end of the Republican Party, as its only role was to get a candidate from another party elected.

Voters will revolt and ask: how could the Republican leadership have been duped to let Trump get all the advantages from the very start, and not say anything about it?

Why let Trump run as an independent at the end of the electoral process, when they could have easily come out and say from the very start that Trump does not represent in any way the Republican party?

Moreover, it would be an irreparable blow to Trump's reputation and character: a con artist whose main goal was to get Clinton elected and in the process fooled his own voters.

Such a simplistic scenario does not make sense at all: it could have been easily prevented by the Republican leadership from the very start.


Trump's role is to prepare the way for someone else, and one of the best and honorable ways to exit would be a brokered convention, where Trump will hit a roadblock: the very complexity of the republican electoral process (party rules, the way delegates are allocated to each state, the bonus delegates, and much more).
« Last Edit: December 13, 2015, 07:35:48 AM by sandokhan »

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #78 on: December 17, 2015, 06:59:55 AM »
Pretty sure your record is non-existent on predictions.

On December 12, I wrote:

Obviously, in Iowa, the evangelical vote will matter most.

(imagine having to go against a Cruz-Carson ticket)

Then, on March 1, the evangelical vote will be of considerable importance,  especially if one of the candidates is from a home state.


On December 13, many hours before the actual poll came out:

Trump's role is to prepare the way for someone else


Then, the Iowa poll was published, surprising everyone (with the exception of those, including LordDave, who read my messages):

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-12/cruz-soars-to-front-of-the-pack-in-iowa-poll-trump-support-stays-flat-ii3p88rp


On December 12, I also wrote:

the Fed gradually raising rates in 2016 to some 1%

At that time, everyone was sure that the Fed would only raise the rate by 0.25% and then stop for a long time before even considering raising the rates again.


Then, again, to just about everyone's surprise:

...signaling that the pace of subsequent increases will be “gradual”

Then the Fed separately forecast an appropriate rate of 1.375 percent at the end of 2016, implying four 0.25% increases in the rate next year.

As for what will happen on March 1, we will see...

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #79 on: December 17, 2015, 08:31:55 AM »
Pretty sure your record is non-existent on predictions.

On December 12, I wrote:

Obviously, in Iowa, the evangelical vote will matter most.

(imagine having to go against a Cruz-Carson ticket)

Then, on March 1, the evangelical vote will be of considerable importance,  especially if one of the candidates is from a home state.


On December 13, many hours before the actual poll came out:

Trump's role is to prepare the way for someone else


Then, the Iowa poll was published, surprising everyone (with the exception of those, including LordDave, who read my messages):

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-12/cruz-soars-to-front-of-the-pack-in-iowa-poll-trump-support-stays-flat-ii3p88rp


On December 12, I also wrote:

the Fed gradually raising rates in 2016 to some 1%

At that time, everyone was sure that the Fed would only raise the rate by 0.25% and then stop for a long time before even considering raising the rates again.


Then, again, to just about everyone's surprise:

...signaling that the pace of subsequent increases will be “gradual”

Then the Fed separately forecast an appropriate rate of 1.375 percent at the end of 2016, implying four 0.25% increases in the rate next year.

As for what will happen on March 1, we will see...


I read an article on npr last week about cruz and the evengelion vote.  Not surprised.



If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.