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Offline Toddler Thork

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Re: Eclipse
« Reply #20 on: April 23, 2021, 10:57:55 PM »
Predict the next eclipse with your magic maths. No tables. Use magic NASA maths to predict the next eclipse. I trust they somehow solved the 3 body problem and didn't tell anybody.  ::) Its all done with tables.

Already done, most recently for the Great American Eclipse, where the eclipse path tracked from Oregon to ... Louisiana, I think.

It was all there in the lead-up, predicted down to the last detail, with hosts of diagrams and page upon page of text telling the public what to expect. You could see how the speed of the shadow varied according to which part of the globe it was hitting. How the fall-off occurred for those outwith the path of totality. Etc etc

Far more detail than simply predicted a date in a calendar.
Who said anything about a calendar? They created tables ... and with those tables they could build computers.

Quote from: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0103275
Antikythera Mechanism

The ancient Greeks built a machine that can predict, for many years ahead, not only eclipses but also a remarkable array of their characteristics, such as directions of obscuration, magnitude, colour, angular diameter of the Moon, relationship with the Moon’s node and eclipse time. It was not entirely accurate, but it was an astonishing achievement for its era.

This computer was all done with gearing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antikythera_mechanism#Gearing

Exactly as flat earth describes the clockwork universe.

Thanks for playing.  ;)
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Offline Iceman

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Re: Eclipse
« Reply #21 on: April 23, 2021, 11:04:55 PM »
So the for the next eclipse in north america... where should I go, what time will the eclipse start, when (and for how long) will the totality hit, how wide will the shadow be, and how long will it last?

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Offline Toddler Thork

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Re: Eclipse
« Reply #22 on: April 23, 2021, 11:09:22 PM »
So the for the next eclipse in north america... where should I go, what time will the eclipse start, when (and for how long) will the totality hit, how wide will the shadow be, and how long will it last?
I don't know. I don't own an antikythera mechanism. Honestly, I don't even have my own ironing board right now.

But if you have 440 Euros, you can find out for yourself.
https://www.kotsanasmuseumshop.com/en/shop/108-antikythera-mechanism-replica-2nd-c-bc

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Offline SteelyBob

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Re: Eclipse
« Reply #23 on: April 23, 2021, 11:18:12 PM »
Thork - you still haven’t addressed how you could predict the start of a new saros  series using your tables, or an antikythera mechanism if you’d prefer.

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Offline Toddler Thork

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Re: Eclipse
« Reply #24 on: April 23, 2021, 11:57:45 PM »
Thork - you still haven’t addressed how you could predict the start of a new saros  series using your tables, or an antikythera mechanism if you’d prefer.

???

The saros cycle isn't the only cycle eclipses use, that tables predict or indeed the antikythera machine can predict.

Below is an eclipse table.


Quote from: https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/SEsaros.html
The resulting Saros-Inex Panorama proved useful in organizing eclipses. For instance, one step down in the panorama is a change of one Saros period (6585.32 days) later, while one step to the right is a change of one Inex period (10571.95 days) later. The rows and columns were then numbered with the Saros and Inex numbers.

Very convenient in the classification of eclipse cycles. Inex series, after a sputtering beginning, go on for many thousands of years giving eclipses every 29 years or so. One inex after an eclipse, another eclipse takes place at almost the same longitude, but at the opposite latitude. So just because my saros cycle ran out, I can still move a column to the right and pick up a different cycle to see where this next eclipse is coming from and restart my saros cycles from there.

There are others too: the Tritos (11 years, 1 month), the Metonic Cycle (19 years), the Exeligmos (triple Saros).

all tables, all known for thousands of years, all helping us predict eclipses.


Now, with your round earth hokum ... demonstrate how YOU would predict a new saros cycle. You seem so adamant that NASA aren't using these tables that do it for them ... show the special maths they use referring to how round the earth must be, to predict this new cycle. And when you can't, don't change the subject. You're in check ... its mate in one.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2021, 12:07:49 AM by Toddler Thork »
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Offline Tumeni

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Re: Eclipse
« Reply #25 on: April 24, 2021, 08:26:01 AM »
... show the special maths they use referring to how round the earth must be, to predict this new cycle.

Reply #16 above. Observe how the distance travelled by the shadow in each half hour increment varies according to where it falls, increasing toward the outer edges. Exactly as would be expected by a shadow moving at linear speed, falling upon a sphere.

Predicting dates will not show this.
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Nearly all flat earthers agree the earth is not a globe.

Nearly?

Offline SteelyBob

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Re: Eclipse
« Reply #26 on: April 24, 2021, 08:37:56 AM »
Thork - you still haven’t addressed how you could predict the start of a new saros  series using your tables, or an antikythera mechanism if you’d prefer.

???

The saros cycle isn't the only cycle eclipses use, that tables predict or indeed the antikythera machine can predict.

Below is an eclipse table.

Quote from: https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/SEsaros.html
The resulting Saros-Inex Panorama proved useful in organizing eclipses. For instance, one step down in the panorama is a change of one Saros period (6585.32 days) later, while one step to the right is a change of one Inex period (10571.95 days) later. The rows and columns were then numbered with the Saros and Inex numbers.

Very convenient in the classification of eclipse cycles. Inex series, after a sputtering beginning, go on for many thousands of years giving eclipses every 29 years or so. One inex after an eclipse, another eclipse takes place at almost the same longitude, but at the opposite latitude. So just because my saros cycle ran out, I can still move a column to the right and pick up a different cycle to see where this next eclipse is coming from and restart my saros cycles from there.

There are others too: the Tritos (11 years, 1 month), the Metonic Cycle (19 years), the Exeligmos (triple Saros).

all tables, all known for thousands of years, all helping us predict eclipses.


Now, with your round earth hokum ... demonstrate how YOU would predict a new saros cycle. You seem so adamant that NASA aren't using these tables that do it for them ... show the special maths they use referring to how round the earth must be, to predict this new cycle. And when you can't, don't change the subject. You're in check ... its mate in one.

Well, first of all, congratulations on learning some stuff - you've progressed from thinking that it was all just Saros periods and that the cycles went on for ever uninterrupted.

Now we're into Inex cycles. Again, great, you're learning stuff. But if you're going to quote websites, you need to read and understand everything that's going on, not just the first bit you find that matches your preconceptions. That Saros-Inex panorama is a brilliant piece of work, but as the website you yourself got it from (there's a pattern developing here, isn't there?) points out, whilst it has some useful predictive power, and it's helpful in understanding eclipse timings, it has many limitations. You can see just by looking at it that whilst there is a general pattern, the individual cycles are irregular, which limits their predictive power. Again, from your link:
Quote
No single Inex-Saros combination meets all three criteria, but there are periods that do a reasonably good job for any one of them.
And then a little later:
Quote
Modern digital computers using high precision solar and lunar ephemerides can directly predict the dates and circumstances of eclipses. Nevertheless, the Saros and Inex cycles remain useful tools in understanding the periodicity and frequency of eclipses.

An enormous Saros-Inex panorama has been produced by Luca Quaglia and John Tilley in the form of a Microsoft Excel file. It shows 61,775 solar eclipses over a 26,000-year period from -11,000 to +15,000 organized by Saros and Inex Series.

So I guess your contention is that every ephemeride is in fact secretly using tabular data built from cycle periods, and not the gravity/orbital mechanics models they claim to be. Aside from the fact that your own source points out inaccuracies and limitations of just using tables, let's drill into ephemerides and their use a little deeper.

So, you asked for how to make predictions...here's an example that compares two ephemerides, DE200 and DE405 for accuracy.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjzgdmftpbwAhULesAKHZd0BJMQFjABegQIBRAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fjournal.walisongo.ac.id%2Findex.php%2Fahkam%2Farticle%2Fdownload%2F5036%2F2796&usg=AOvVaw3M8VLR1bh6BnuHOL3w492p

There's pretty good detail on how to analyse the data and extract eclipse instances from the raw position data.

So that's half the battle, but of course you could argue that the ephemeris itself is just cyclical tables and not actually an orbital mechanics model (although as a flat earther you should be wondering how the eclipses match so perfectly with a model that is based on spherical bodies in alignment...).

If you're interested, there's a lifetime's worth of reading on what goes into an ephemeris model. Here's a detailed description of some of the measurement data that went into one of them, DE405, for example:

https://web.archive.org/web/20120220062549/http://iau-comm4.jpl.nasa.gov/de405iom/de405iom.pdf

They are enormously complex. I suppose that the people who put that together are either in on the conspiracy, or they are genuine? The bizarre insistence that their usage of numerical methods to generate model data as evidence of fraud or invalidity that seems to pop up on this site from time to time is just plain weird - just because a set of PDEs can't be solved analytically doesn't mean they aren't correct. Indeed, having created a set of solutions it's possible to back-test the data against the original equations, and to run other tests such as energy conservation (poor solutions add or lose energy over time, which can't happen).

Quote
You're in check ... its mate in one.

I think this is the problem, neatly summed up in one short line. Good scientist shift their position on new evidence. I don't consider this to be a game of win or lose. I'm not trying to defeat you, whereas you appear to consider this to be a case of picking a side and defending it, regardless of all evidence. It's ok, in fact it's positively fantastic, to change your position. Go ahead, read some stuff, and learn.

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Offline Toddler Thork

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Re: Eclipse
« Reply #27 on: April 24, 2021, 08:43:16 AM »
Well, first of all, congratulations on learning some stuff - you've progressed from thinking that it was all just Saros periods and that the cycles went on for ever uninterrupted.

Now we're into Inex cycles. Again, great, you're learning stuff.

That's as far as I read. How about you learn some manners?
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Offline SteelyBob

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Re: Eclipse
« Reply #28 on: April 24, 2021, 09:00:26 AM »
Well, first of all, congratulations on learning some stuff - you've progressed from thinking that it was all just Saros periods and that the cycles went on for ever uninterrupted.

Now we're into Inex cycles. Again, great, you're learning stuff.

That's as far as I read. How about you learn some manners?

My congratulations were genuine. Apologies if you inferred something else.

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Offline Toddler Thork

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Re: Eclipse
« Reply #29 on: April 24, 2021, 09:01:01 AM »
... show the special maths they use referring to how round the earth must be, to predict this new cycle.

Reply #16 above. Observe how the distance travelled by the shadow in each half hour increment varies according to where it falls, increasing toward the outer edges. Exactly as would be expected by a shadow moving at linear speed, falling upon a sphere.

Predicting dates will not show this.
I already answered this at the top of the page.

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Offline Tumeni

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Re: Eclipse
« Reply #30 on: April 24, 2021, 09:48:02 AM »
I already answered this at the top of the page.

You appear to address only the last sentence of my previous point, so IMHO, you did not answer this, but ... hey-ho.
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Nearly all flat earthers agree the earth is not a globe.

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Offline SteelyBob

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Re: Eclipse
« Reply #31 on: April 24, 2021, 05:13:27 PM »
... show the special maths they use referring to how round the earth must be, to predict this new cycle.

Reply #16 above. Observe how the distance travelled by the shadow in each half hour increment varies according to where it falls, increasing toward the outer edges. Exactly as would be expected by a shadow moving at linear speed, falling upon a sphere.

Predicting dates will not show this.
I already answered this at the top of the page.

I have to agree with Tumeni here. You haven't even come close to answering the question. All you've done is claim it can be done using tables and cite the Antikythera machine which, whilst being an amazing feat of invention and mathematics, doesn't actually work all that well, as the quote you yourself posted acknowledges. Moreover, it has absolutely no hope whatsoever of being able to predict eclipses to the level of precision and reliability that can be achieved by analysing ephemeris data in the way I showed in response to your 'check mate' questions.

Offline WTF_Seriously

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Re: Eclipse
« Reply #32 on: April 27, 2021, 02:37:33 PM »
The bigger problem with FE eclipse is not predicting them but what they look like.

Here's a snippet of the path of the Dec. 4 2021 eclipse.  You can view the animation here: https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/solar/2021-december-4


At the time of the fullest eclipse, the sun and moon are over the Indian ocean at approximately the red X.  This can be determined using Suncalc.org and Mooncalc.org and entering the coords. -23.2 Lat. 58.5 Long. and adjusting to time 11:34 UTC+4.

So the first question is how the Sun and Moon crossing at that location can cast a shadow so far west. 

If you watch the animation the path of the moon's shadow is travelling east to west.  How can the sun, approaching and then crossing over the moon, not cause the shadow to travel east to a point at the same longitude of the sun and moon at the time of the crossing and then have the shadow travel further east?

« Last Edit: April 27, 2021, 03:15:09 PM by WTF_Seriously »
Distance from Sydney to Perth - We don't know.
There's a mirror floating in the sky - Yup.