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Offline AATW

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #40 on: August 09, 2024, 06:54:50 AM »
To correct myself, she's not only going to lose because of the commie thing. A big part of her loss will be because she's extremely naïve, and has a developmental age of about eight
But it’s all rigged, isn’t it?
How can she lose? :)
Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"

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Offline Pete Svarrior

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #41 on: August 09, 2024, 03:08:12 PM »
and who believes in things like the data in the cloud is literally above us in the clouds.
I wonder what it says about your own developmental age if you think this is something she literally believes. Perhaps you should withhold judgement?
Read the FAQ before asking your question - chances are we already addressed it.
Follow the Flat Earth Society on Twitter and Facebook!

If we are not speculating then we must assume

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Offline Rushy

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #42 on: August 09, 2024, 04:03:15 PM »
Where would the data cloud be if not amongst the other clouds in the sky? We keep it in the clouds because water has memory. A lot of memory.

Anyway, current poll averages:

National: Harris +0.5
Arizona: Trump +2.8
Nevada: Trump +4.0
Wisconsin: Harris +0.5
Michigan: Harris +2.0
Pennsylvania: Trump +1.8
North Carolina: Trump +3.0
Georgia: Trump +0.6

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Offline honk

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #43 on: August 09, 2024, 04:46:24 PM »
I'm feeling pleasantly optimistic about the election, which is incredible when just a month ago I was 99% certain Trump was going to win. I never would have guessed that replacing Biden on the ticket could have been handled so smoothly, nor that Trump's VP pick would be such a disaster. Speaking of which, two days ago Vance flubbed an obvious softball question and made himself look like an asshole with his defensive response:

https://x.com/samueljrob/status/1821203241494839542
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Offline mahogany

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #44 on: August 10, 2024, 01:05:33 AM »
Kamala and "the old man" are in the honey-moon stages... I wouldn't get too excited.

With respect to flubbing questions, Kamala relies heavily on carefully choreographed scrips; and when not reading from scrips, she is a master-flubber. One data point example is NBC interviewer Lester Holt asking her why she hasn't been to the border yet as Border Czar. Kamala first says "we've been to the border... we've been to the border... we've been to the border". Lester says "But you haven't been to the border". To which she replies "I haven't been to Europe, I mean what's your point." There are other examples as well.

The upcoming debate(s) will be interesting and fun to watch, especially with Kamala not being able to read off of scripted answers.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Kamala didn't really earn the delegates. They were Joe Biden's. Joe Biden gifted Kamala the delegates. In the 2020 race, Kamala was a terrible candidate. Again, we are in the honeymoon phase with her and the old man and so it's too early to tell.

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #45 on: August 10, 2024, 01:34:02 AM »

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #46 on: August 10, 2024, 05:23:39 AM »
ITT



Why should it frighten me to see humans acting like humans?  Not like they're saying how Kamala will wipe out her enemies or how if they lose, they'll kill someone.
The conviction will get overturned on appeal.

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Offline honk

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #47 on: August 10, 2024, 05:39:01 AM »
I really wish we could keep shitposts to the shitpost thread.
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Offline AATW

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #48 on: August 10, 2024, 05:58:29 AM »
Why should it frighten me to see humans acting like humans?  Not like they're saying how Kamala will wipe out her enemies or how if they lose, they'll kill someone.
Tom is panicking, all of the MAGA lot are. So is Trump. They knew they were going to beat Biden. They didn’t even have to do anything, they just had to stand there and let Biden do what he did in the debate and prove himself unelectable. In a 2 party system they’d win by default.
Now they’re suddenly facing someone they have to actually beat and they’re not sure they can. They can’t now use the whataboutism when it comes to Trump’s age.
Hence Trump’s claims that they “stole” the presidency from Biden - what does that even mean, Biden is still president!

The Democrats were sleepwalking in to certain defeat, they switched to Kamela later than they should have in my view but actually maybe the honeymoon period mahogany mentioned will last long enough that it will prove a masterstroke.
Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"

Offline mahogany

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #49 on: August 10, 2024, 09:58:29 AM »
I don't think the MAGA lot (myself included) are panicking. I think there is anxiety in trying to get Kamala front and center with debates and off-scripted interviews as soon as possible.

I think her campaign knows deep down that Kamala doesn't do well talking off-scripted and so they are sticking to easy bits like rallies where Kamala can talk in platitudes. I think she's signed up for only 1 interview with ABC news in the middle of September with no sit down interviews as of to date and a "we'll see" in terms of any additional debates. Her constant giggling (while kind of cute in my opinion) is a nervous tick when she is asked direct / hard questions. 

Trump is pushing for more debate (beyond the ABC one) and I think wants to expose Kamala for the platitude talking head that she is before the November election.

Republicans have been saying (as far back as 3-4 years ago) that Biden's cognitive state is poor. Democrats and the press have been ignoring this up until the recent debate where his cognitive state was finally front and center for everyone to see. And, you saw what happened after that. For Kamala, same thing but slightly different story -- she's not good unscripted and so they will try to keep her away from tripping over herself as much as possible. Republicans know she's vulnerable in this area.   
« Last Edit: August 10, 2024, 10:04:19 AM by mahogany »

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Offline Rushy

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #50 on: August 10, 2024, 04:41:40 PM »
Tom is panicking, all of the MAGA lot are. So is Trump.

I just posted polling data. What about the current polls and political climate makes you think that anyone pro-Trump is "panicking"? As it stands right now, if polling data is accurate, Trump still wins. Harris needs to see more significant shifting in current swing state polls if she wants to guarantee victory. Right now, it's neck and neck with Trump slightly ahead. The switch to Harris has made Trumpers nervous, but Trump is still incredibly close to winning the election. Do note that, in 2016, for today, August 10th, Clinton was polling +7.7 nationally, in 2020, Biden was at +6.9. Right now, it's Harris at +0.8. The DNC is hiding it well, but they are well aware of the intense pressure they are under.

While it may be comforting for those online to continue to post "Trump is done now, it's over!" It is not close to over. Trump still has the statistically most likely chance of winning per current polling. A lot can change in the months leading up to the election, but that is the current state of things.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2024, 04:49:33 PM by Rushy »

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Offline honk

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #51 on: August 10, 2024, 07:46:52 PM »
Kamala and "the old man" are in the honey-moon stages... I wouldn't get too excited.

With respect to flubbing questions, Kamala relies heavily on carefully choreographed scrips; and when not reading from scrips, she is a master-flubber. One data point example is NBC interviewer Lester Holt asking her why she hasn't been to the border yet as Border Czar. Kamala first says "we've been to the border... we've been to the border... we've been to the border". Lester says "But you haven't been to the border". To which she replies "I haven't been to Europe, I mean what's your point." There are other examples as well.

The upcoming debate(s) will be interesting and fun to watch, especially with Kamala not being able to read off of scripted answers.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Kamala didn't really earn the delegates. They were Joe Biden's. Joe Biden gifted Kamala the delegates. In the 2020 race, Kamala was a terrible candidate. Again, we are in the honeymoon phase with her and the old man and so it's too early to tell.

At this point, I honestly don't take they-need-a-teleprompter criticisms seriously anymore. It's just a stock line that people all too casually throw at almost any high-profile politician, and there's seldom any strong evidence outside of vibes backing it up. Kamala didn't fumble in the Holt interview (which was over three years ago, so it's hardly a timely example) because she didn't have a teleprompter; it's because she didn't have anything she could reasonably say apart from straight-up bullshitting. The state of the border, and Kamala's role in it, is a genuine weakness in her record. Maybe her response could have been a bit more graceful if it had been scripted, but no politician in the world could have turned that question around without blatantly lying. This is a completely different issue to Vance, who genuinely seems to have poor interpersonal skills, as shown by him interpreting what was obviously an easy softball question meant to humanize him as a hostile "gotcha" question and responding to it aggressively. Remember, this is the kind of thing that ruined DeSantis's shot at the presidency, even after so many pundits and Republican big shots were predicting that DeSantis would step in and take control of the party when Trump was in a weak position after the midterms. Vance isn't going to get better at dealing with people within the space of a few months. Choosing a MAGA loyalist instead of a more mainstream, respectable Republican was a power move on Trump's part, a show of bravado meant to demonstrate his confidence in winning the election without needing to court non-MAGA Republicans, and it's backfired horribly.

It's also interesting that you call Walz "the old man" when he's only sixty years old - just a few months older than Kamala. Walz is absolutely playing on his white hair and wrinkles to project a benevolent, grandfatherly image to voters, but he's not "old" in the sense that he's greatly physically and mentally diminished the way Trump and Biden are. That's the main advantage of trading Biden in for Kamala, and even when this polling bump inevitably subsides, the age difference will remain the same. It's no longer the Democrats who are running a very old man who's nowhere near as sharp as he was eight or even four years ago; it's the Republicans. The media chose to ignore Trump's advanced age in favor of focusing on Biden's advanced age while Biden was running, and it's entirely possible they'll once again choose to ignore Trump's advanced age now that Biden isn't running, but people still have eyes and ears, and they can see how slow and diminished Trump is.
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Offline AATW

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #52 on: August 10, 2024, 08:47:08 PM »
Tom is panicking, all of the MAGA lot are. So is Trump.
I just posted polling data. What about the current polls and political climate makes you think that anyone pro-Trump is "panicking"?
Panicking is maybe over-stating it. But it has changed the momentum and it's changing the polls. With Joe the Republicans didn't need to do anything. Trump was going to win not because he's a good option, but because he is less obviously demented. He rambles and lies endlessly, but that's not new. He knows what day of the week it is, he wouldn't go round introducing Zelensky as Putin!
Now we have someone who feels like a more credible option, they have a job to do if they're going to win.
It's given me hope that Trump won't win (which, you may be surprised to hear I would regard as a bad thing). With Trump vs Biden I had no hope.
Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"

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Offline Rushy

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #53 on: August 10, 2024, 10:02:39 PM »
Panicking is maybe over-stating it. But it has changed the momentum and it's changing the polls. With Joe the Republicans didn't need to do anything. Trump was going to win not because he's a good option, but because he is less obviously demented. He rambles and lies endlessly, but that's not new. He knows what day of the week it is, he wouldn't go round introducing Zelensky as Putin!
Now we have someone who feels like a more credible option, they have a job to do if they're going to win.
It's given me hope that Trump won't win (which, you may be surprised to hear I would regard as a bad thing). With Trump vs Biden I had no hope.

Momentum changes are expected because of the nominee change itself, Harris' VP pick, and the deflating after-effects of the RNC (where they spent most of the time sucking off Israel for whatever reason). The upcoming DNC will further inflate Harris' numbers. Another 3 or 4 points would put Republicans firmly in "panic" mode, but until then these are manageable shifts in numbers.

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Offline Rushy

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #54 on: August 22, 2024, 01:54:53 PM »
Current poll averages:

National: Harris +1.6
Arizona: Harris +0.6
Nevada: Trump +2.2
Wisconsin: Harris +1.5
Michigan: Harris +2.4
Pennsylvania: Harris +2.0
North Carolina: Tie
Georgia: Trump +1.7

Current election status: it's Trover

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #55 on: August 22, 2024, 04:51:19 PM »
Doubtful

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/wedpolling-shows-harris-leading-trump-industry-experts-see-skewed-samples

    Prior to becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris suffered from decidedly poor approval ratings and Trump initially held the lead over her in a head-to-head matchup. The average quickly flipped, however, in the wake of several surveys showing Harris ahead. Those surveys, however, have attracted scrutiny from an array of pollsters either due to their lack of transparency about the sampling methodology or from oversampling Democrats.

    “So what they're doing is they're polling fewer Republicans. They're polling a disproportionate number of Biden 2020 voters in these states that were dead even,” pollster John McLaughlin said this week on the “Just the News, No Noise” television show.

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #56 on: August 22, 2024, 08:05:42 PM »
Who knows?  The polls are terrible indicators lately.

On the flip side: Trump is an asshole.  And with Biden gone, the people repuctant to choose between two old guys can now pick a younger woman with experience.  That gives her an advantage.  Especially since Trump has resorted to nothing but name calling and complaining about crowd sizes.
The conviction will get overturned on appeal.

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #57 on: August 23, 2024, 12:38:37 AM »
If you read the article I posted it says that these new polls polled a percentage amout less of self-identified Republicans which coincidentally correlates to about the percentage of "increase" Kamala Harris is seeing.

    “Same thing in North Carolina, 5% fewer Republicans,” he went on.

So either the existence of Kamala Harris convinced Republicans to turn their back on Republicanism altogether, or the polling is skewed.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2024, 12:47:21 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Offline honk

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #58 on: August 23, 2024, 04:05:37 AM »
Just the News is a garbage website that spreads misinformation and conspiracy theories, and this article in particular is light on verifiable statistical analyses of polls and relies heavily on the supposed authoritative weight of pollsters Scott Rasmussen and John McLaughlin insisting that something isn't right. The obvious response is that neither Rasmussen nor McLaughlin are neutral, objective observers giving their sincere professional opinions. They're both Trumpworld stooges whose continued relevance in the conservative mediasphere (mediaplane?) relies on them telling their audiences what they want to hear. Trumpworld does not tolerate bearers of bad news.

I also really like how a big part of this article is devoted to their incredulity that Kamala is more popular as a presidential candidate than a vice president. There are several elements that can explain this discrepancy. Firstly, and most importantly, the vice presidency is a very difficult job for anyone to distinguish themselves in. It's primarily a supportive role where they don't spend much time in front of the camera or publicly "doing" much of anything, and are mostly expected, at least in recent years, to represent some element that the president themselves lacks. Hence why Obama had an older, experienced senator as his VP, why Trump had a very openly religious establishment Republican as his VP, and why Biden had a younger woman of color as his VP. It's more than possible for a vice president who's mostly stagnating in the president's shadow to shine once they start campaigning for themselves as president. There's also the fact that Trump's campaign spent so much time hammering Biden on his age and frailty while he was running, and so switching Biden for Kamala has turned Trump's advantage into his disadvantage. And there's of course the candidates' vice presidential picks - Kamala made a good choice, while Trump made a terrible choice.

Of course, it's always good to have some skepticism of what the polls are saying, and make sure you vote no matter what. It's weird how McLaughlin claimed in the article that this was all an effort to suppress Republicans' votes, when falsely presenting Kamala as doing better than she really is is more likely to hurt her than help her by possibly making her potential voters complaisant.
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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #59 on: August 23, 2024, 04:21:53 AM »
Quote from: honk
Just the News is a garbage website that spreads misinformation and conspiracy theories, and this article in particular is light on verifiable statistical analyses of polls and relies heavily on the supposed authoritative weight of pollsters Scott Rasmussen and John McLaughlin insisting that something isn't right. The obvious response is that neither Rasmussen nor McLaughlin are neutral, objective observers giving their sincere professional opinions.

Those people are authorities in their field. As far as I can see your source for your information is your own self.