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Offline Iceman

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Re: Trump
« Reply #6780 on: November 11, 2020, 02:38:02 PM »
Reuters, and all the academics they consulted, appears to disagree with that sentiment

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27Q3AI

IThe article appears to just be talking about the difference between "proof" and "evidence"

“First, I'd like to stress that Benford's Law can NOT be used to "prove fraud",” he told Reuters by email. “It is only a Red Flag test, that can raise doubts. E.g., the IRS has been using it for decades to ferret out fraudsters, but only by identifying suspicious entries, at which time they put the auditors to work on the hard evidence. Whether or not a dataset follows BL proves nothing.”

Walter Mebane, Professor at the Department of Political Science and Department of Statistics at the University of Michigan (here) authored a December 2006 article (here) around the application of Benford’s Law to the US presidential election results. The article suggested some limitations of the process, but said in the Abstract: “The test is worth taking seriously as a statistical test for election fraud."

Do you have a special search algorithm that can detect the only phrases in an article that can be manipulated to support your preconceptions?  Did you read any of the other paragraphs? The rest of amebanes quotes? The excerpts from the paper he published about the 2020 results?

"On Nov. 9, 2020, in response to “several queries” Mebane published a paper called “Inappropriate Applications of Benford’s Law Regularities to Some Data from the 2020 Presidential Election in the United States” (www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/inapB.pdf). His paper says, “The displays shown at those sources using the first digits of precinct vote counts data from Fulton County, GA, Allegheny County, PA, Milwaukee, WI, and Chicago, IL, say nothing about possible frauds” before examining the reasons behind this statement."

The article admits that Bedford's law is a valid way of collecting evidence for voter fraud.

This is one of those Snopes: Fact Check False articles which builds a strawman and debunks it. It even ends with their "verdict".

"Someone said it was proof! Not proof, it's only evidence!!"

"This method of doing it I saw on the internet may be incorrect, but it's otherwise a valid method of collecting evidence for voter fraud"

Can you see how absurd this sounds? Why not just show that Biden's votes follow the law and that there are no anomalies.

Why not? Because the US is supposed to be the beat democracy in the world. This was arguable the most tightly- watched election of all time. The burden of proof lies on those making the claims of widespread vote fraud. So far, none of the accusations has gained any traction. I would reiterate that many of those 'anomalous' Biden votes also helped elect Republican senators. Are those Senate votes equally anomalous? Why arent Democrats crying foul that Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnel won their seats back?

Because it was a vote. Votes got counted, that's what the numbers said.

Rama Set

Re: Trump
« Reply #6781 on: November 11, 2020, 02:47:31 PM »
It's also important to note that anomaly!=fraud.  In a system counting 150,000,000 votes you will have issues with votes, but so far nothing has shown to be fraudulent and there has been no evidence that an election has been stolen.

I do love that Tom is citing Snopes.  Super hypocritical, but sure, he doesn't have much to make his case with does he?

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Offline AATW

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Re: Trump
« Reply #6782 on: November 11, 2020, 03:41:23 PM »
This is a good breakdown on Trump's lawsuits up to the publish date of the video and why they failed:
That is a good video. My favourite still from it



Non zero amount! Chuckle.  ;D
Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: Trump
« Reply #6783 on: November 11, 2020, 04:26:59 PM »
Wouldn't Bedford's law not hold up in unusual circumstances such as say.... A pandemic thst is mismanaged and a president who is unhinged, increases his power, and has no fiscal responsibility?

Like I see this election as a "Trump is a bad republican.  We vote for other republicans but want Trump out."
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

Re: Trump
« Reply #6784 on: November 11, 2020, 05:56:54 PM »
so the deep state rigged the general election, but they forgot to rig the senate and house races. and they rigged pennsylvania but forgot to rig florida for some reason. and then they rigged georgia, but they rigged it by such a close margin that georgia is now doing a by-hand recount of all the votes, greatly increasing their risk of getting caught.

yeah this totally makes a ton of sense. because benford's "law" lol.
I have visited from prestigious research institutions of the highest caliber, to which only our administrator holds with confidence.

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Offline J-Man

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Re: Trump
« Reply #6785 on: November 11, 2020, 06:53:48 PM »
The recounts begin. There needs to be auditing of these ballots. I've heard stories of peeps living in other countries now receiving 4 ballots and dead people receiving 10...holy sheeee

Calif an New York are pure Demo states...Guess what? They have the most homeless. The, get it free states, come on down. This is what we can expect in the future, slums with taxes and fees thru the roof.....No one has incentive to work.

No matter if Trump won or lost, this country has gone to sheeee

I will NOT wear a mask except where private enterprise requires me. Biden can Kiss my ass.
What kind of person would devote endless hours posting scientific facts trying to correct the few retards who believe in the FE? I slay shitty little demons.

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Offline honk

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Re: Trump
« Reply #6786 on: November 11, 2020, 06:57:23 PM »
I will NOT wear a mask except where private enterprise requires me.

You anti-maskers are the absolute worst.
ur retartet but u donut even no it and i walnut tell u y

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Offline AATW

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Re: Trump
« Reply #6787 on: November 11, 2020, 07:01:21 PM »
The recounts begin. There needs to be auditing of these ballots. I've heard stories of peeps living in other countries now receiving 4 ballots and dead people receiving 10...holy sheeee
And this is why that sort of evidence, the sort Trump’s lawyers are presenting, is getting laughed out of court.
“I heard a thing” might be a be a diverting anecdote with your buddies but the law demands something a bit more concrete than that.

Quote
No matter if Trump won or lost, this country has gone to sheeee

Well, you certainly have issues.
I’d suggest most countries do.
The government’s response to Covid here (the UK) has been typically shambolic.

Quote
I will NOT wear a mask except where private enterprise requires me. Biden can Kiss my ass.
Not while he’s wearing a mask he can’t.
Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"

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Offline J-Man

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Re: Trump
« Reply #6788 on: November 11, 2020, 07:02:17 PM »
I will NOT wear a mask except where private enterprise requires me.

You anti-maskers are the absolute worst.

Stay 6 feet away lmao... fake remedies

My county we rarely wear masks and have some of the lowest numbers of fake flu
What kind of person would devote endless hours posting scientific facts trying to correct the few retards who believe in the FE? I slay shitty little demons.

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Offline Clyde Frog

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Re: Trump
« Reply #6789 on: November 11, 2020, 07:11:41 PM »
My county we rarely wear masks and have some of the lowest numbers of fake flu
That philosophy always works, until it doesn't.

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Offline stack

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Re: Trump
« Reply #6790 on: November 11, 2020, 07:39:55 PM »

Calif an New York are pure Demo states...Guess what? They have the most homeless. The, get it free states, come on down. This is what we can expect in the future, slums with taxes and fees thru the roof.....No one has incentive to work.

The four most populous States, in order:

California
Texas
Florida
New York

Top four States Homeless count, in order:

California
New York
Florida
Texas

Seems like a bi-partisan problem.


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Offline GreatATuin

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Re: Trump
« Reply #6791 on: November 11, 2020, 07:51:37 PM »
I'm trying to find even a single other example, anywhere in the world, of a party in power accusing the opposition of rigging the elections. So far, no luck. Is it completely unprecedented?
Nearly all flat earthers agree the earth is not a globe.

you guys just read what you want to read

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Offline AATW

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Re: Trump
« Reply #6792 on: November 11, 2020, 08:01:53 PM »
Stay 6 feet away lmao... fake remedies

My county we rarely wear masks and have some of the lowest numbers of fake flu
Gotta say, I do see the sense of masks in shops and on trains, enclosed spaces where people are close together.
In more rural areas though I don't think they're going to make that much difference.
I certainly don't wear one when I'm outside.
Tom: "Claiming incredulity is a pretty bad argument. Calling it "insane" or "ridiculous" is not a good argument at all."

TFES Wiki Occam's Razor page, by Tom: "What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter to an escape velocity of 7 miles per second"

Rama Set

Re: Trump
« Reply #6793 on: November 11, 2020, 10:10:43 PM »
From yesterday's hearings on Trump v Montgomery County Board of Elections:

https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/2020/11/Transcript.pdf

Quote
THE COURT: I understand. I am asking
you a specific question, and I am looking for a
specific answer. Are you claiming that there is any
fraud in connection with these 592 disputed ballots?
MR. GOLDSTEIN: To my knowledge at
present, no.
THE COURT: Are you claiming that there
is any undue or improper influence upon the elector
with respect to these 592 ballots?
MR. GOLDSTEIN: To my knowledge at
present, no.

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Offline J-Man

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Re: Trump
« Reply #6794 on: November 11, 2020, 10:41:41 PM »
sworn affidavits... Dems cheat, Dems lost, Biden Lost,  Deep State Cheat cheat media bias

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/mcenany-unveils-234-pages-affidavits-alleging-election-irregularities-michigan
What kind of person would devote endless hours posting scientific facts trying to correct the few retards who believe in the FE? I slay shitty little demons.

Rama Set

Re: Trump
« Reply #6795 on: November 11, 2020, 11:07:15 PM »
sworn affidavits... Dems cheat, Dems lost, Biden Lost,  Deep State Cheat cheat media bias

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/mcenany-unveils-234-pages-affidavits-alleging-election-irregularities-michigan

We have no idea what is in those affidavits.  If it is hearsay, then it will not be admissible as evidence because hearsay is terrible evidence.  Trump will need more, almost certainly.  Also, we have seen the breadth of the Trump campaign's claim shrink considerably when actually put before a judge; I won't be surprised if very few of these affidavits are even submitted, assuming McEnany isn't lying.

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Offline Roundy

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Re: Trump
« Reply #6796 on: November 11, 2020, 11:25:51 PM »
From yesterday's hearings on Trump v Montgomery County Board of Elections:

https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/2020/11/Transcript.pdf

Quote
THE COURT: I understand. I am asking
you a specific question, and I am looking for a
specific answer. Are you claiming that there is any
fraud in connection with these 592 disputed ballots?
MR. GOLDSTEIN: To my knowledge at
present, no.
THE COURT: Are you claiming that there
is any undue or improper influence upon the elector
with respect to these 592 ballots?
MR. GOLDSTEIN: To my knowledge at
present, no.

It's hilarious. Trump and his peeps can lie all they want, but his lawyers aren't going to put their careers on the line for him.
Dr. Frank is a physicist. He says it's impossible. So it's impossible.
My friends, please remember Tom said this the next time you fall into the trap of engaging him, and thank you. :)


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Offline Lord Dave

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If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Offline Roundy

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Re: Trump
« Reply #6799 on: November 12, 2020, 06:44:25 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/11/politics/kfile-trump-officials-2016-election-results/index.html

Remember four years ago when the losers were having trouble accepting that they'd lost? I guess what goes around comes around. It is nonetheless funny and even illuminating reading what some of the most vocal proponents of the rigged election theory today said about the situation four years ago.

They're all a bunch of crybabies.
Dr. Frank is a physicist. He says it's impossible. So it's impossible.
My friends, please remember Tom said this the next time you fall into the trap of engaging him, and thank you. :)