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Messages - GreatATuin

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141
FE'ers do claim photos from the moon and from space are false
This part.

The argument is not that all claim images are false, but rather that they're not particularly trustworthy due to their unverifiable nature. Further to that, they are rarely conclusive either way even if we ignored their other problems.

Pictures of the Earth taken from far enough away unequivocally show the Earth to be a globe. And there are a lot. From Apollo missions, from DSCOVR, from geostationary satellites (not only NASA's)...

Someone who claims the Earth is flat also claims these pictures are false. That's a logical equivalence.

By contrapositive, someone who says these pictures might be real also says the Earth might be round.

142
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Are plane tickets real?
« on: April 02, 2020, 01:25:07 PM »
If I got access to their source code then I would just need to test it and hang out with someone who has a masters in math to determine if the claims made on an HTML document is accurate or not.

You probably can't do that with Bing - Bing is closed source, it's unlikely Microsoft will ever give you their code. But you can do that with Openstreetmap. OSM and Bing both use a variant of the Mercator projection, which means their map will look reasonably similar. The data and source code of OSM are public. You can even run your own server. It would take a lot of time and effort, especially if you want to compile everything yourself from source code and not just download the binaries, but it can be done. You can see for yourself every line of code and every bit of data.

Will you ever do that? I guess not. But it's definitely possible.

143
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Are plane tickets real?
« on: April 02, 2020, 10:14:07 AM »
If I got access to their source code then I would just need to test it and hang out with someone who has a masters in math to determine if the claims made on an HTML document is accurate or not.

You probably can't do that with Bing - Bing is closed source, it's unlikely Microsoft will ever give you their code. But you can do that with Openstreetmap. The data and source code of OSM are public. You can even run your own server. It would take a lot of time and effort, especially if you want to compile everything yourself from source code and not just download the binaries, but it can be done. You can see for yourself every line of code and every bit of data.

OSM and Bing both use a variant of the Mercator projection, which means their map will look reasonably similar.

144
Flat Earth Investigations / Re: Black Holes and Paper Cuts
« on: April 01, 2020, 09:33:16 PM »
This is genuinely absurd.

If I said that magnetic attraction was the result of tiny invisible pixies, and put that alongside the electromagnetic explanation, are you truly saying that your only recourse for comparing the likelihood of those explanations is more experiments?
I'm not saying an experiment wouldn't work, I've never said that, I've said several times over they do add to evidence, they're where evidence comes from, but you are saying that so long as I said the fairies acted in the same way as the electromagnetic spectrum, according to you these would be equivalent theories.

Personally speaking I think that's utter rubbish, but whatever.
This is what you have been arguing over and distracting the thread over. I hope you're proud.

If your theory works exactly the same way, with the same equations, and the same causes result in the same consequences, they are actually equivalent theories: they will give the same predictions, and experiments will give the same results.

The part that differ, the invisible pixies, is unfalsifiable. See Russell's teapot or the Invisible Pink Unicorn. It cannot be tested and therefore cannot be part of a scientific theory. I can't prove the invisible pixies don't exist, but I don't mind: no one can prove they exist either, and I have no need of that hypothesis.

145
Flat Earth Investigations / Re: Black Holes and Paper Cuts
« on: April 01, 2020, 07:21:07 PM »
On the other hand, Flat Earth offers us several models, incompatible with each other, and these models don't give us any answer or prediction, just more questions on how they are supposed to work. The existence of several models allows flat earthers to cherry pick an explanation for anything. Where is the pseudoscience?
That is how science should be done. FEers don't cherrypick answers from whatever model is convenient, every FEer has their own model that they hold to and can answer the questions for, some choose to be more representative when they answer newbies and people that seem ignorant of that, but they don't switch between models when convenient. I can tell you what model I subscribe to, just as Tom Bishop could tell you which he favors, and many others could do the same.

They do. Tom did post very recently that he favored a bipolar earth model, but still tried to argue something based on a monopole model. Cherrypicking, as blatant as possible. And a common answer to any question seems to be "it really depends on the model".

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This is preferrable to the tradition-based system of RET where a model gains traction simply because it's been around longer, and you have to take on faith that people a century ago with the resources of a century ago didn't make a mistake, because your system is incapable of replacing something established. It only appends and tweaks small changes, or adds things, but never goes back, never questions. Fundamental claims like relativity, dark matter, those should have been the call to go back and re-examine earlier discoveries and claims in light of it, instead they were added to a model assumed to be accurate rather than re-verified, creating this ever-unstable pile of hypotheses that cracks keep opening up in.

Do you mean that, for example, the discovery of quantum physics and relativity did not lead to re-examination of what we knew? That the Copernician model did not supersede the geocentric Ptolemaic model? The Copernician model or relativity didn't gain traction because it'd been around longer: it gained traction because it works better than previous models.

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Prediction does not matter. Explanatory power does. Demanding a model make new predictions, while it can be sufficient, only serves to further the tradition-over-logic approach of RET. If you have two theories, A is established, B is new and competing, and an experiment was performed a decade ago because it was predicted by theory A, if theory B also predicts the same, then all that sets the theory apart is which came first. If someone was to go back in time and suggest B before A, and perform the same experiment, suddenly A would be the one that needs to make a new prediction. The predictive model of scientific theory does nothing but favor what has already been suggested, and thus prefers the models that were designed when less was understood. It is one of the many fundamental errors with the RE approach.

Prediction matters a lot. If you hold a theory to be true, then you should be able to make predictions based on this theory, that you can test and that will fail if the theory is wrong. That's what falsifiability is about. If there is no way to make an observation that could prove your theory wrong, then it is not falsifiable and has little or no scientific value.

Also, if two theories predict the same thing, then they are not really competing.

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RET does raise many questions, such as the one I raised in the OP. The difference between RET and FET is that we ask the questions. You are taking your own refusal to question as evidence there are no flaws, when if anything it means the opposite. A true scientific approach is one where there are questions, where nothing is ever taken as complete or fully settled, and those questions are actually asked rather than conveniently ignored.

FET asks questions that have been answered long ago.

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Further, claiming eclipse predictions grew more accurate with understanding is simply false. This is one of many crucial misunderstandings the predictive approach takes. You think because you can more accurately describe something in terms of a model, that it means the model has more evidence behind it. Instead, eclipses are by definition a predictable phenomenon, repeating completely after each saros cycle, the equations that govern them were once filled with unknowns, and then filled with values from past recorded eclipses. To say our understanding made eclipses more predictable is to confuse cause and effect, it was the predictability of eclipses that led to the equations that supposedly describe them, simply because you can make a formula for anything predictable.

Saros cycles are not enough, by far, to accurately predict the specific time and location of an eclipse. You are rewriting history. Halley made his precise prediction of an eclipse in 1715 thanks to the equations of Newton's laws of gravity. These formulas did not come out of nowhere. Newton made a hypothesis. People tried his hypothesis and saw it worked. They used it to make predictions, and these predictions were accurate. Newton wasn't looking for a way to predict eclipses.

Then centuries later, Einstein made a hypothesis that was mostly compatible with Newton's, but filled the gaps where Newton's failed. Einstein showed Newtonian physics' limits. But within these limits, it still applies, and still is in use today.

If tomorrow someone comes with a new theory that updates Einstein's relativity, it will have to be compatible with all the many cases that relativity correctly predicts, just like relativity had to be compatible with all the cases that work with Newtonian mechanics.

146
Flat Earth Investigations / Re: Black Holes and Paper Cuts
« on: April 01, 2020, 09:41:01 AM »
What you described is called pseudoscience. Astronomy is a pseudoscience.


Nice try, but no.

Science is about making a hypothesis, then trying your hypothesis. Of course for a very long time, before the Space Age, astronomical hypothesis could only be tried through observation. But even that way, you can try your hypothesis and see if it gives you a better understanding of how the world works.

And you know what? In the case of astronomy, it does. Astronomers gradually built a better and more precise description of what we see in the skies. For example, eclipse predictions got more accurate as astronomical knowledge progressed. The existence of Neptune was postulated in the 19th century based on calculations of the other planets' orbit, and then confirmed through observation. This is what science is about. Building models and see if they work. Astronomical models work pretty damn well, and they did long before we even launched our first rocket.

On the other hand, Flat Earth offers us several models, incompatible with each other, and these models don't give us any answer or prediction, just more questions on how they are supposed to work. The existence of several models allows flat earthers to cherry pick an explanation for anything. Where is the pseudoscience?

147
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Opposite sides viewing the same planet.
« on: March 31, 2020, 02:40:47 PM »
I'm not sure everyone is talking about the same things. OP mentioned planets. Crux is not a planet, it's a "fixed star" (as in, distant enough to look fixed in our sky).

Crux is visible most of the year south of the equator, and always visible at night south of 34ºS.

On your map, observers in Chile and in Australia will both see Crux, but at a different position in the sky.

As the Earth spins, observers at the same latitude will get a similar view of the fixed stars, but at a different time. Compare for example:

Sydney, Australia, 10:10 UTC
Cape Town, South Africa, 18:59 UTC
Valparaíso, Chile, 0:59 UTC

Note how the fixed stars look remarkably similar. The Moon however is at a slightly different position because it moved on its orbit during this time.

PS before someone corrects me: yes, Crux is actually a constellation, not a single star, but the points remain valid.

148
The Monopole model continues to be useful for conceptual reasons. The diagram in the OP can be explained as result of the latitude lines being curved.

Which conceptual reasons? The monopole and bipolar models are mutually incompatible. The Earth cannot be both a bipole and a monopole, no more than it can be both flat and round. You cannot use one of these models and apply your results to the other.

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The 2011 Sendai earthquake, east of Japan, triggered a tsunami that hit Hawaii and California. I have yet to see a bipolar model compatible with that fact.

Wind and water currents at large scales can be curved, curving on their own or wrapping around continental features.

Not a lot of straight lines there.

A tsunami is not a wind or a current. It's a series of waves.

149
The Bi-Polar Model answer is that the southern midnight sun exists, and that the Flat Earth model has had two poles since the early 1900's and stop using the 1800's Monopole model. The Bi-Polar model has always been my preference, FYI.

The 2011 Sendai earthquake, east of Japan, triggered a tsunami that hit Hawaii and California. I have yet to see a bipolar model compatible with that fact.

150
So, let's help Tom understand how Moon phases actually work. Maybe with this simulation: https://pbslm-contrib.s3.amazonaws.com/WGBH/buac19/buac19-int-earthsunmoon35model/index.html

An interesting experiment with this simulation: move forward 7 days and 6 hours to see a first quarter right overhead. The terminator appears to be perfectly vertical, which is what we expect. The Sun appears on the horizon, setting, which is also what we expect. Of course this is a very simplified model with no Earth tilt or latitudes, but it's enough for my point.

Does the "lit" side of the Moon point at the Sun? Absolutely.

Does it point at the horizon, where we see the sunset? No. It's not pointing downwards and has no reason to.

Is there a discrepancy? No, just the illusion of a discrepancy.

151

But...you’ve shown two moons in that image too, as if red and blue are looking at two different moons! They are not.
The diagram Great A’Tuin did is a better representation of the reality. And the important angle is the one at which the red and blue lines meet at the moon.


I don't want to take undue credit, the diagram is Tom's. He included it in an earlier version of his post then edited it out.

Still, we can only try to explain how it works based on how it actually works, not based on Tom's misconceptions of how it works.

So, let's help Tom understand how Moon phases actually work. Maybe with this simulation: https://pbslm-contrib.s3.amazonaws.com/WGBH/buac19/buac19-int-earthsunmoon35model/index.html

152
Interestingly, Tom posted then removed this diagram:


Maybe because it could be used to show that the actual angle difference between the blue and red lines is quite small?

153
There is an equinox article in the Wiki.

See the links at the end of https://wiki.tfes.org/Sunrise_and_Sunset

They offer no explanation on how the Sun's light could create such strange shapes on a flat Earth.

The animation you posted shows that the discrepancy is the southern midnight sun that wraps around the Earth. That takes us to Antarctica, where all the information comes from the government, and is not necessarily the best source of information.

You don't even need to go that far to find a discrepancy. Draw a line from Sydney to Ushuaia (daytime in both cities). The line crosses parts of the world in North America that can't see the Sun at this time. How does the light of the Sun create a concave shape?

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Alternatively, the southern midnight sun is possible in the bipolar model.


Cherry-picking, how convenient. Also, the bipolar model basically assumes the Pacific Ocean is a hoax.

Round earth doesn't need a different model for each observation.

154
There is an equinox article in the Wiki.

See the links at the end of https://wiki.tfes.org/Sunrise_and_Sunset

They offer no explanation on how the Sun's light could create such strange shapes on a flat Earth.

155
On a map that looks like the polar azimuthal equidistant projection, which seems to be the hypothesis you're working with, it actually looks even worse around the December solstice:



(gif taken from this site)

See this exact time for example: https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html?iso=20211221T0845

Sun at zenith above Madagascar, day in Ushuaia as well as in all of Australia, night in North America, night anywhere north of the 68th parallel. Not easy to explain in a FE model.

156
None of the explanations above, or the video above, tell us how something can tilt to perspective without us seeing different sides of it. Distance has nothing to do with it. It will occur at all scales.



I honestly can't tell what you are trying to prove with your Rubik's cubes lines, and how it relates to the Moon tilt illusion. Which is just that: an illusion. There is no problem with the way the Moon appears to us in the night sky.

157
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Eclipse from a Plane
« on: March 27, 2020, 11:03:57 AM »
Indeed, I can't see a problem.

Most of these photos seems to be of the March 2015 eclipse. Many eclipse enthusiats boarded chartered flights or even private jets to see and photograph the eclipse.

They did so because they knew exactly when and where the eclipse would happen. Such predictions are all, without any exception, based on a round earth model. The first accurate prediction was made by Halley (yes, the comet guy) in 1715, thanks to Newton's findings.

158
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Eötvös Effect
« on: March 26, 2020, 01:29:57 PM »

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If RE could actually show its claims, they would have done that long ago
Well, they have. All you're doing is either calling it fake, misunderstanding it or hand waving it away for various spurious reasons.
It's very easy to "prove" yourself right if you ignore or call fake all the evidence showing you to be wrong.

Bonus points for those who disregard centuries of scientific research and experiments, and then claim their opponents suffer from confirmation bias. I really loved that one.

159
Flat Earth Theory / Re: Eötvös Effect
« on: March 25, 2020, 07:06:40 PM »
Too bad you edited your post before I sent that answer. Anyway, all the experiments you quoted are at much lower speeds. 25 m/s as in the Wikipedia article is about 90 km/h or 55mph. A plane is about 10 times faster.

There is an online calculator: http://walter.bislins.ch/bloge/index.asp?page=Centrifugal+and+Gravitational+Acceleration+in+an+Aircraft

But it's a shame you edited, I really love the way you quoted a website whose title is "100 Proofs that the Earth is a Globe" (https://www.mezzacotta.net/100proofs/archives/482).

160
Yet, in the southern U.S., Venus is visible at 45 degrees -- WAY up in the night sky, after sundown for at least two months STRAIGHT. Tonight, Venus is visible for as long FOUR HOURS after sunset. That means I can see it til ONE O'CLOCK in the morning.

No, you can't. The sun sets much earlier than 9pm. I tried on https://www.heavens-above.com/skychart2.aspx with Austin, TX. With that data I get a sunset at about 7:45pm with Venus at about 46º and disappearing over the horizon around 11:20pm. Note that you could actually see Venus even higher in the sky earlier in the day if you know where to look: it's bright enough to be visible in broad daylight.

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How is this possible when the Earth is turned AWAY FROM THE SUN COMPLETELY at night time??
cc8e837a4219a1a5ab.jpg[/img]

This is actually perfectly consistent: Venus is currently at its maximum elongation of about 47º with the Sun. Being able to see it with the Sun well below the horizon is therefore totally expected, exactly how long depends on your latitude. Seen from Earth, Venus more or less appears to follow the Sun on the ecliptic, which means it will rise and set a few hours later than the Sun.

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Now, come with all your Ad Hominem attacks on my person, since you can't attack my arguments and let's all have it.

Your arguments are invalid.

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