#### Roundy

• Abdicator of the Zetetic Council
• 3976
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1380 on: November 06, 2022, 03:00:29 PM »
Look who's at the top.
Dr. Frank is a physicist. He says it's impossible. So it's impossible.
My friends, please remember Tom said this the next time you fall into the trap of engaging him, and thank you.

#### garygreen

• 3146
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1381 on: November 13, 2022, 12:21:37 AM »
here's my first shot at a prediction model. it's just a vanilla logistic regression trained on three features for every nfl game since 2002: pythagorean expectation for each team, and a binary variable for home/away. it performed well on held-out validation data, and the fact that it seems to track the vegas odds so closely is very encouraging.

the left panel shows you my model's prediction vs the chance to win implied by the moneyline odds. the right panel shows you the difference between the predicted odds and the implied odds — this is the per-unit expected value of a bet for each team. positive numbers are good. you can multiply a team's per-unit EV by the size of a bet to get the average return on that bet (e.g., 0.05 * \$100 = \$5, so you should expect an average return of \$5 for that bet).

I have visited from prestigious research institutions of the highest caliber, to which only our administrator holds with confidence.

#### Shane

• 2913
• If you will it, it is no dream
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1382 on: November 13, 2022, 12:42:47 AM »
Celtics have the best offense in the league,  Tatum is averaging 31 ppg. Could be quite a force if Robert Williams can return, stay healthy for the playoffs and make an impact. they're gonna win the title thanks.

edit damn tatum scored 43 and Celtics win 6th straight 🔥 😳
« Last Edit: November 13, 2022, 02:26:51 AM by Shane »
Quote from: Rushy
How do you know you weren't literally given metaphorical wings?

#### garygreen

• 3146
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1383 on: November 14, 2022, 12:12:18 AM »
lmao fuck the bills
I have visited from prestigious research institutions of the highest caliber, to which only our administrator holds with confidence.

#### Shane

• 2913
• If you will it, it is no dream
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1384 on: November 15, 2022, 03:12:13 AM »
Quote from: Rushy
How do you know you weren't literally given metaphorical wings?

#### Iceman

• 1825
• where there's smoke there's wires
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1385 on: November 15, 2022, 04:02:28 AM »
Fuck Boston.

#### Shane

• 2913
• If you will it, it is no dream
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1386 on: November 15, 2022, 04:08:56 AM »
Fuck Boston.

that is very rude why do you say this
Quote from: Rushy
How do you know you weren't literally given metaphorical wings?

#### garygreen

• 3146
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1387 on: November 15, 2022, 05:48:47 PM »
the state of the nfl going into week 11

I have visited from prestigious research institutions of the highest caliber, to which only our administrator holds with confidence.

#### Iceman

• 1825
• where there's smoke there's wires
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1388 on: November 15, 2022, 09:55:18 PM »
Fuck Boston.

that is very rude why do you say this

Experience, unfortunately.

#### Shane

• 2913
• If you will it, it is no dream
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1389 on: November 15, 2022, 11:26:40 PM »
Fuck Boston.

that is very rude why do you say this

Experience, unfortunately.

Well in my experience you're mean! Boston is a nice city!
Quote from: Rushy
How do you know you weren't literally given metaphorical wings?

#### Iceman

• 1825
• where there's smoke there's wires
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1390 on: November 16, 2022, 12:09:58 AM »
It should have said Fuck Boston[‘s sports franchises]. Plenty of love for the city and the people

#### Iceman

• 1825
• where there's smoke there's wires
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1391 on: November 16, 2022, 12:13:56 AM »
Gary, is there a way to display the WPA vs EPA data by week? Might have to be broken down by division or something for the sake of displaying it, but it’d be cool to see the season-long progression, with teams either adapting to new schemes, dealing with injury or trades, variation is strength of schedule.

I don’t know if those data lend themselves well to adding a temporal component, just think it’d be cool

#### garygreen

• 3146
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1392 on: November 16, 2022, 11:19:19 PM »
yeah i think i might be able to whip something like that up. i could maybe make a gif that goes from week 1 to current that shows all the teams moving around wpa/epa space.
I have visited from prestigious research institutions of the highest caliber, to which only our administrator holds with confidence.

#### Shane

• 2913
• If you will it, it is no dream
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1393 on: November 17, 2022, 02:55:12 AM »
Quote from: Rushy
How do you know you weren't literally given metaphorical wings?

#### juner

• Planar Moderator
• 10027
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1394 on: November 19, 2022, 07:36:31 AM »
.ask Shane why was -1.5 first half @ -110 so easy js no offence

#### Shane

• 2913
• If you will it, it is no dream
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1395 on: December 01, 2022, 02:44:32 AM »

Jayson Tatum dro I s 49 on the heat, is league mvp, Celtics are the best team in the NBA and bruins at the best team in hockey

Quote from: Rushy
How do you know you weren't literally given metaphorical wings?

#### Shane

• 2913
• If you will it, it is no dream
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1396 on: December 04, 2022, 03:51:55 AM »
Bruins are 20-3-0, Bruins are 20-3-0, football sux now never actually liked it
Quote from: Rushy
How do you know you weren't literally given metaphorical wings?

#### garygreen

• 3146
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1397 on: December 06, 2022, 09:46:42 PM »
the state of the nfl going into week 13:

I have visited from prestigious research institutions of the highest caliber, to which only our administrator holds with confidence.

#### garygreen

• 3146
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1398 on: January 09, 2023, 11:03:13 PM »
the final wpa/epa plot for the 2022 nfl regular season.

I have visited from prestigious research institutions of the highest caliber, to which only our administrator holds with confidence.

#### garygreen

• 3146
##### Re: Official Sports Thread
« Reply #1399 on: January 15, 2023, 03:29:49 AM »
I have visited from prestigious research institutions of the highest caliber, to which only our administrator holds with confidence.