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Offline Roundy

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Re: Trump
« Reply #2640 on: March 24, 2018, 01:27:23 AM »
And is that illegal or unethical for any reason?
Yes, it's completely and utterly illegal given that Cambridge Analytica operated from, well, Cambridge. British data protection regulations are quite tight, and not quite as "oh, haha, businesses can do whatever :) :) :)" as the US. They broke the law the moment they exported data abroad without explicit permission, doubly so when they used it for reasons other than those originally provided to data providers (i.e. actual human beings)

If they wanted to take the US approach of "haha if you put it on the Internet then we can literally buttfuck you without asking" approach, they should have run their business from the US.

I admit I hadn't thought about that, but why is it being treated as such a big deal over here where such regulations don't exist, or are at least a lot more relaxed?
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Offline Dr David Thork

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Re: Trump
« Reply #2641 on: March 24, 2018, 01:45:25 AM »
The EU is pushing GDPR (comes into force 25th May 2018). It is a lot of work for businesses (American ones too that want to do business in the EU) and there will be a ton of costs associated. By making a big hoohaa about data protection laws they can say "GDPR - protects against this evil that is destroying democracy and we'll shame you publicly if you don't spend money complying."
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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: Trump
« Reply #2642 on: March 24, 2018, 05:33:15 AM »
And is that illegal or unethical for any reason?
Yes, it's completely and utterly illegal given that Cambridge Analytica operated from, well, Cambridge. British data protection regulations are quite tight, and not quite as "oh, haha, businesses can do whatever :) :) :) " as the US. They broke the law the moment they exported data abroad without explicit permission, doubly so when they used it for reasons other than those originally provided to data providers (i.e. actual human beings)

If they wanted to take the US approach of "haha if you put it on the Internet then we can literally buttfuck you without asking" approach, they should have run their business from the US.

I admit I hadn't thought about that, but why is it being treated as such a big deal over here where such regulations don't exist, or are at least a lot more relaxed?


1. Trump hate.
2. Hidden Video footage admitting to basically using allll that data to digitally brainwash you.  Drain the Swamp came from their research.  They found it made people angry and think about removing career politicians. 
3. America is all about 'But mah privacy!' and now the government (cause trump won) has access too all that juicy facebook data.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Offline Cain

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Re: Trump
« Reply #2643 on: April 02, 2018, 11:55:52 AM »
we can literally buttfuck you without asking
You just made my list, buddy.  >:(
this world does not have room for another mind as intelligent as yours.

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: Trump
« Reply #2644 on: April 03, 2018, 09:28:40 AM »
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/04/02/598730606/china-hits-back-on-trade-dispute-slapping-tariffs-on-128-u-s-products

But it should be easy for Trump to win this, right guys?

And hey, means more frozen pork and wine and fruit for the US.  That'll surely boost spending in America, right?
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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Trump
« Reply #2645 on: April 03, 2018, 01:30:33 PM »
Don't you ever feel rotten rooting for America to fail so that Trump doesn't win?

Re: Trump
« Reply #2646 on: April 03, 2018, 02:36:17 PM »
Don't you ever feel rotten rooting for America to fail so that Trump doesn't win?

i doubt that anyone here wants america to fail just to spite trump.  that's absurd.

*psst* i know this will be difficult for you to believe, but many of us think that trump's policies are bad for america and will cause us to be worse off
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Offline Dr David Thork

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Re: Trump
« Reply #2647 on: April 03, 2018, 03:52:10 PM »
Don't you ever feel rotten rooting for America to fail so that Trump doesn't win?
We have the same here. People are desperate for Brexit not to be a success, because they'd rather starve than have to admit they voted against freedom and opportunity. They actually want their fears realised, because theirs was the dishonorable, cowardly, selfish vote ... and if their fears aren't realised, they are just the idiots who sold out the country and handed power to a foreign government. Not the wise and noble (albeit starving) sages that they wish to be seen as. Its the selfie generation after all. Self image is everything and how people perceive you is more important than things like freedom to these iZombies.

Its the same with Trump. Who wants to be seen as the #imwithher muppet that voted for corruption, corporate greed and proxy wars for oil, because they were frightened by establishment threats? Trump was the honorable vote ... for American jobs, American citizens and for hope that things could be better. Everyone knows nothing would be better under Hilary. That was a vote made by people who were told they couldn't hope for anything better and they believed it. At least with Trump, you had the balls to roll the dice. The Democrat voters don't want success because they know they'd have empowered wicked Hilary to do all kinds of disgusting things and their only defense can be "we just voted against Trump and look how bad he is". But if Trump is a success, they are left being wrong and looking stupid and cowardly. Just like the Brexit remainers.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2018, 04:07:37 PM by Baby Thork »
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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: Trump
« Reply #2648 on: April 03, 2018, 04:11:46 PM »
Don't you ever feel rotten rooting for America to fail so that Trump doesn't win?
I dunno.  Does that apply to people who voted against Obama twice and rooted for him to fail?


Also: I'm not rooting for Trump to fail.  I'm saying he WILL fail and his failure will cause harm to America.  And no, he does not have the track record to give me hope he'll succeed.  He has no political experience before the presidency and his businesses (which aren't even close to running a government) have had a lot of failures.  Alot.  Some of them range from stupid choices to downright frauds.

He chose to start a trade war.  He claimed they were easy to win.  I'm certain they are not easy to win and I strongly doubt he'll win this one.  The steel and aluminum industry is cheering but the agricultural group is gonna cry foul.  He's jumping on the popular (and simple) solution to solve complex problems that almost always cause someone else to get hurt.  So what will he do when farmers start complaining about the same thing the steel and aluminum workers did?  Farmers are Republican supporters more often than not so what then?


We don't want America to fail.  We want Trump to not make dumb-ass decisions based on what Fox news and facebook users say.
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Offline Dr David Thork

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Re: Trump
« Reply #2649 on: April 03, 2018, 05:00:24 PM »
Trump is trying to solve a problem that the US has had for decades. Your trade deficit. And no one is going to just hand trade to you. I'm British, we have everything to lose by Trump's choices, but I can't fault him for them. America can't print money forever. It is a lie to think you can. At some point the world is going to get tired of giving you real things like cars and steel and food in exchange for paper. You need something to trade with. Something we want. And Facebook and google aren't enough. We're going to want real things. Useful things we have trouble making for ourselves.

Hilary like every other president would have done nothing about the deficit. But one day some president has to deal with it before America gets it margin call. You aren't going to be lent money to buy real goods that you never intend to pay back forever. And that day is coming ever closer. So you can act now, whilst you still have a strong military, a currency people value, educated people and advantages in technology and manufacture, or you can wait whilst your power erodes to a point when you really won't win a trade war because you don't have the weapons to back it, if it escalates.

You'll win a trade war against China and the EU. And you'll win because you're the ones with the deficit, and because no one is going to turn that war hot on you when they start losing.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2018, 05:02:06 PM by Baby Thork »
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Rama Set

Re: Trump
« Reply #2650 on: April 03, 2018, 08:02:22 PM »
https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/are-trade-deficits-really-bad-news

This is a really good article that basically says everything Thork thinks about trade deficits is wrong. I point you to the last paragraph:

Quote
The only reason the U.S. trade deficit is bad news is that so many people believe it is bad news.

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Offline Dr David Thork

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Re: Trump
« Reply #2651 on: April 04, 2018, 01:04:41 AM »
The guy in the article eludes to the fact that once people take your dollars, they have to do something with them and he even says ... you can buy US treasuries, you can invest in US stocks, you can invest in American real estate.

And these things are all great ... for a little while.

But what happens when people stop investing? Real estate values are already too high for example and getting a return from rental is no longer viable as people are priced out. PE ratios of stocks are too high and investors believe the stock market is over valued? Yields on bonds are at record lows so investors don't see a return there either?

And that's where you are. Bond yields are at record lows. Stocks do have sky high valuations. Real estate is astronomically high. At some point you get to the end of the road and people don't want to give you your dollars back any more. They'd rather spend them somewhere else.
You have this right now. People aren't buying your government debt. The FED has had to start doing it. No one else wants it because there is no return. And so the FED balance sheet has ballooned. And the upshot is your creditors don't roll over their investments. They take your dollars and keep them. You are coming to the end of the road and that road is going to be a hell of a crash. With practically zero interest rates, you will struggle to re-inflate the bubble next time, because no one will want the dollars you print in exchange for a debt with zero interest returns. And if you up the interest rate to make it appealing, you bankrupt your own government because it can't service the debt it has.
The US has painted itself into a corner. Its very obvious. If you buy things, and don't sell things in equal measure, you'll end up with debt. And eventually people will stop lending you money as it becomes obvious you'll never pay them back. That time is near. Trump knows it and he is trying to rebalance the economy to give investors hope that you do have things to offer.

Wealth is always correlated to production. Not debt. British had industrial revolution, British went on to have an empire. US had the Marshal plan, it became a world super power. Now China is the worlds top producer ... and they are rich. Their people are no longer peasants. And they will be the next superpower ... unless you do something about it. Conversely places like Nigeria don't make anything and are just in debt. They aren't rich because they are in debt. Debt on its own is bad.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2018, 01:18:55 AM by Baby Thork »
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Re: Trump
« Reply #2652 on: April 04, 2018, 02:25:01 AM »
https://www.barrons.com/articles/SB108276148531092275

Quote
Isn't it strange that the economy has prospered from one decade to the next even as the deficit monster has grown bigger and bigger? The "calamity" is always somewhere out there on the horizon.

The truth is that, far from a monster, our deficit from trade in goods and services is as friendly and health-promoting to the economy as a beloved pet is to your family.

According to popular understanding, a wide deficit reflects the propensity of an irresponsible American population to consume more than it produces or to spend more than it earns. It is politically incendiary because exports are associated (inaccurately) with jobs at home while imports are associated with jobs overseas. So, for anxious observers, the trade deficit symbolizes jobs for foreigners at our expense.

Furthermore, the deficit is widely argued to be unsustainable: Gullible foreigners currently willing to finance American profligacy are sure to wake up sooner or later and withdraw their funds, aren't they? Then our fragile house of cards will come crashing down.

There is something badly wrong with this picture. In fact, the whole picture is upside down.

i had to stop myself from quoting the whole thing.  each paragraph is better than the last.
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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: Trump
« Reply #2653 on: April 04, 2018, 10:49:48 AM »
First, Thork, the national debt and trade deficits are not the same thing.  I assume you know that but just throwing that out there.  One can have no trade deficits with anyone and still run a massive national debt.  Also vice versa: you can have no national debt but still run massive trade deficits.

The reason we have such a high trade deficit with China is because we like cheap shit and China offers to make our TVs, computers, clothes, and toys for a fraction of the cost it is to make it in America and most of the world.  China supplies the cheap labor, America buys it.  This is good for both nations.  The American people get cheap manufactured goods and China gets to employ hundreds of thousands of people in horrible conditions with wages that aren't exactly great.

By enacting higher tarrifs, America may have a few steel workers with their jobs back, but so what?  Every other industry that relies on steel and aluminum is going to suffer and they'll cut back.  Maybe you gain 4,000 jobs in the steel and aluminum market but lose 10,000 elsewhere due to lower demand or higher costs.  Remember: When you need to cut costs and your materials just went up, cut labor before you raise prices.  Hell, your soda and beer cans are gonna go up in price.

Worse yet, manufacturing that comes back has a really good chance of just being autoamted.  There aren't empty factories where toys and clothing used to be made that are just waiting for people to come back.  All that manufacturing will need new buildings and if you're gonna spend the money to build a factory, might as well make it as automated as possible.  So all the jobs you think you'll get back, you won't.

In the end, everything will be more expensive, people will have less work, and no one will be able to do anything about it.


Also:
China has a realllly good reason to keep proping up our economy by buying bonds: We're a huge customer for them.  If our economy collapses, they go with us and they know it.  In fact, starting a trade war with them is going to make it harder for them to justify propping our economy up.  Especially if we stop making it worth their wild by providing a good market for their goods.

What America needs to do is stop thinking it's some great manufacturing nation and focus on Food and Services. 
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Offline Dr David Thork

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Re: Trump
« Reply #2654 on: April 04, 2018, 12:14:01 PM »
First, Thork, the national debt and trade deficits are not the same thing.  I assume you know that but just throwing that out there.  One can have no trade deficits with anyone and still run a massive national debt.  Also vice versa: you can have no national debt but still run massive trade deficits.
You cant have the worst of everything. High stock prices, high real estate prices, low bond yields, low productivity, high debt levels etc. That puts you in a place where there is no value anywhere for investors to get a return.

The reason we have such a high trade deficit with China is because we like cheap shit and China offers to make our TVs, computers, clothes, and toys for a fraction of the cost it is to make it in America and most of the world.  China supplies the cheap labor, America buys it.  This is good for both nations.  The American people get cheap manufactured goods and China gets to employ hundreds of thousands of people in horrible conditions with wages that aren't exactly great.
And what do Americans do for work, in order to pay for all this cheap shit? If you don't have people with money, you don't have an economy. you cant just be buyers. You have to earn money by selling something ... doing work.

By enacting higher tarrifs, America may have a few steel workers with their jobs back, but so what?  Every other industry that relies on steel and aluminum is going to suffer and they'll cut back.  Maybe you gain 4,000 jobs in the steel and aluminum market but lose 10,000 elsewhere due to lower demand or higher costs.  Remember: When you need to cut costs and your materials just went up, cut labor before you raise prices.  Hell, your soda and beer cans are gonna go up in price.
I agree, starting with steel is dumb. You should start with finished goods and work backwards, but something is better than nothing. Prices need to rise. That's how Americans get paid. A race to the bottom on cost is only going to make workers impoverished and shareholders very rich indeed. You need things to cost more, so that you can earn more.

Worse yet, manufacturing that comes back has a really good chance of just being autoamted.  There aren't empty factories where toys and clothing used to be made that are just waiting for people to come back.  All that manufacturing will need new buildings and if you're gonna spend the money to build a factory, might as well make it as automated as possible.  So all the jobs you think you'll get back, you won't.
you should get higher paid jobs. Robot designers, software designers, maintenance technicians. You don't want Americans filling boxes and sorting widgets. You want high productivity jobs that pay well giving people a high disposable income to spend back into the economy. You don't want min-wage slaves queuing at food banks.

In the end, everything will be more expensive, people will have less work, and no one will be able to do anything about it.
It will be more expensive, people will earn more and you should have more jobs, not less as productivity increases. You can't sit on your arses not making anything with your hands out to the government asking them to give you borrowed money so you can have a Chinese TV.

Also:
China has a realllly good reason to keep proping up our economy by buying bonds: We're a huge customer for them.  If our economy collapses, they go with us and they know it.  In fact, starting a trade war with them is going to make it harder for them to justify propping our economy up.  Especially if we stop making it worth their wild by providing a good market for their goods.
Newsflash. China have already threatened to stop buying your debt. They have you by the balls. This is the exact reason Trump is making the moves he is making. Cos you have your backs to the wall.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4137514-warning-bell-china-may-stop-buying-u-s-debt

What America needs to do is stop thinking it's some great manufacturing nation and focus on Food and Services. 
You mean stop being a Quaternary economy and regress to being a tertiary one. Good plan, Stan.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2018, 12:16:11 PM by Baby Thork »
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Re: Trump
« Reply #2655 on: April 04, 2018, 03:07:02 PM »
if only there were some objective way to quantify economic output...



OMH MY GOD THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IS SO SCARY WHATEVER WILL WE DO????



trade deficit hawks are fucking idiots.
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Offline Dr David Thork

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Re: Trump
« Reply #2656 on: April 04, 2018, 03:38:17 PM »
GDP. If ever there was a more bastardised statistic.

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-gdp-fraud/
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Re: Trump
« Reply #2657 on: April 04, 2018, 06:42:39 PM »
GDP. If ever there was a more bastardised statistic.

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-gdp-fraud/

i hardly made it past "obviously, government spending is in no way a reflection of private sector economic activity."  lol in 2009.  when the usfg was literally purchasing economic activity.  i'm not sure how i could possibly take that article seriously.  what does he think the government spends its money on?

but fine; if you don't like GDP, then use PPP instead.  it's the same graph.  total us economic value is growing, not shrinking.

if any of your bullshit about trade deficits were correct, then the hard landing would've happened in 2008 when capital inflow plummeted.  instead everything happened exactly as ranson predicted in 2004.  notice that the current account deficit drops precipitously in 2008/2009.  lol do you think us manufacturing and exports were suddenly skyrocketing?  during the recession?  hint: no, just look at the corresponding decline in GDP.

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Offline Rushy

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Re: Trump
« Reply #2658 on: April 05, 2018, 03:31:27 AM »
Woah I never knew the FES had so many posters with degrees in advanced macroeconomics

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Offline honk

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Re: Trump
« Reply #2659 on: April 05, 2018, 06:09:22 AM »
Woah I never knew the FES had so many posters with degrees in advanced macroeconomics

You could shut down any debate on this site with a pointless ad hominem like this.
ur retartet but u donut even no it and i walnut tell u y