Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #240 on: October 02, 2024, 09:18:24 PM »
I don't think "we know people who do weird voodoo shit with cats" is a bridge too far.

"my friend 'went to a voodoo ritual'" is already a bridge too far for me to take anything that follows at face value
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Offline Action80

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #241 on: October 02, 2024, 09:54:02 PM »
^Basement staircases are probably "a bridge too far" as well.
To be honest I am getting pretty bored of this place.

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #242 on: October 03, 2024, 01:28:14 AM »
So much passion.

« Last Edit: October 03, 2024, 03:57:51 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Offline Rushy

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #243 on: October 03, 2024, 04:28:30 AM »
I don't think "we know people who do weird voodoo shit with cats" is a bridge too far.

"my friend 'went to a voodoo ritual'" is already a bridge too far for me to take anything that follows at face value

I don't think your lack of friend diversity should reflect upon Action69's story.

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Offline Rushy

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #244 on: October 03, 2024, 05:46:47 PM »
Poll update:

National: Harris +2.2 -- This Day In History:  October 3, 2020: Biden +7.8 | October 3, 2016: Clinton +3.2
Arizona: Trump +1.7
Nevada: Harris +1.1
Wisconsin: Harris +0.8
Michigan: Harris +0.7
Pennsylvania: Tie
North Carolina: Trump +0.6
Georgia: Trump +1.5

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #245 on: October 11, 2024, 09:30:24 AM »
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fox-news-proposes-dates-possible-second-trump-harris-debate-2024-10-09/

Trump turns down fox news invite for debate with Harris.  Apparently he doesn't want a rematch even on a safe network like Fox.  Weird, right?
The conviction will get overturned on appeal.

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Offline rooster

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #246 on: October 11, 2024, 12:23:33 PM »
Where do these polls happen? I've always wanted to be Polled.

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Offline Rushy

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #247 on: October 11, 2024, 03:33:31 PM »
Where do these polls happen? I've always wanted to be Polled.

You have to be the kind of person that always answers when random phone numbers call you.

Poll update:

National: Harris +1.8 -- This Day In History: October 11, 2020: Biden +10.3 | October 11, 2016: Clinton +6.0
Arizona: Trump +0.5
Nevada: Trump +0.2
Wisconsin: Harris +0.3
Michigan: Trump +0.9
Pennsylvania: Trump +0.4
North Carolina: Trump +0.5
Georgia: Trump +0.5

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #248 on: October 12, 2024, 05:47:12 PM »
It sounds like the party's over for Kamala.

https://unherd.com/newsroom/the-kamala-harris-honeymoon-is-coming-to-an-end/

Quote
This is the race Democrats feared. Less than a month before the US election, Donald Trump is regaining the slight edge he held before Democrats convened in Chicago to nominate Kamala Harris. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average in battleground states, Trump trailed Harris from late August until late September. Now, though, he’s back on top at 48.4 to 48.1. His lead may be fractional — and Harris is up two points in the popular vote — but the numbers have Kellyanne Conway feeling good.

Alongside a picture of the RCP numbers, the pollster argued this week that Trump is “in his best polling ever era, even as media outlets are likely undercounting his voters — again”. On CNN, Harry Enten crunched the numbers too. “Let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020. What happens then?” he asked on Tuesday. “Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes.”

In his Wednesday column, Charles Blow of the New York Times lamented that FiveThirtyEight now gives Harris and Trump “close-to-even chances” of winning. “The campaign doesn’t need a post-joy strategy,” he wrote, “but it definitely needs an in-addition-to-joy strategy.” FiveThirtyEight‘s win probability chart mirrors RCP‘s battleground chart in that as Harris’s DNC bump has waned, Trump’s numbers have gone up, closing the gap significantly in just the last few weeks.

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #249 on: October 12, 2024, 08:54:27 PM »
It sounds like the party's over for Kamala.

https://unherd.com/newsroom/the-kamala-harris-honeymoon-is-coming-to-an-end/

Quote
This is the race Democrats feared. Less than a month before the US election, Donald Trump is regaining the slight edge he held before Democrats convened in Chicago to nominate Kamala Harris. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average in battleground states, Trump trailed Harris from late August until late September. Now, though, he’s back on top at 48.4 to 48.1. His lead may be fractional — and Harris is up two points in the popular vote — but the numbers have Kellyanne Conway feeling good.

Alongside a picture of the RCP numbers, the pollster argued this week that Trump is “in his best polling ever era, even as media outlets are likely undercounting his voters — again”. On CNN, Harry Enten crunched the numbers too. “Let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020. What happens then?” he asked on Tuesday. “Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes.”

In his Wednesday column, Charles Blow of the New York Times lamented that FiveThirtyEight now gives Harris and Trump “close-to-even chances” of winning. “The campaign doesn’t need a post-joy strategy,” he wrote, “but it definitely needs an in-addition-to-joy strategy.” FiveThirtyEight‘s win probability chart mirrors RCP‘s battleground chart in that as Harris’s DNC bump has waned, Trump’s numbers have gone up, closing the gap significantly in just the last few weeks.

And?  Do you have a point?
The conviction will get overturned on appeal.

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #251 on: October 14, 2024, 04:42:48 AM »
The conviction will get overturned on appeal.

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #252 on: October 14, 2024, 11:25:23 AM »
It is correct that the people polled tend to vote differently than the people who vote. However, Trump is beating those prior trends.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/12/polls-trump-vs-harris-biden-clinton/75532448007/



« Last Edit: October 14, 2024, 11:28:02 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Offline Rushy

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #253 on: October 14, 2024, 02:17:54 PM »
Clinton was up 10 points in 2016 and still lost.  Your polls are meaningless.

Keep in mind that Trump outperformed his polls in both 2016 and 2020. While it's possible that Harris can break the trend and outperform her polls, I don't think it's probable. As it stands right now, a neck-and-neck polling situation for Harris means Trump wins by about three points. Her campaign knows this is the case but her supporters seem to bury their heads in the sand.

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #254 on: October 14, 2024, 03:11:24 PM »
Clinton was up 10 points in 2016 and still lost.  Your polls are meaningless.

Keep in mind that Trump outperformed his polls in both 2016 and 2020. While it's possible that Harris can break the trend and outperform her polls, I don't think it's probable. As it stands right now, a neck-and-neck polling situation for Harris means Trump wins by about three points. Her campaign knows this is the case but her supporters seem to bury their heads in the sand.

But those polls are national polls and that could mean she loses the popular vote but wins the EC.  It's not how many vote for you, it's only those who win in battleground states.
The conviction will get overturned on appeal.

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Offline Rushy

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #255 on: October 14, 2024, 03:30:09 PM »
But those polls are national polls and that could mean she loses the popular vote but wins the EC.  It's not how many vote for you, it's only those who win in battleground states.

Harris is currently losing in every swing state polling average except Wisconsin.

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Offline honk

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #256 on: October 14, 2024, 03:38:12 PM »
Of course there's no way to prove this, but I'd be willing to bet that Trump's standing in the polls improving isn't a case of Kamala losing popularity so much as it is Trump gaining popularity - or more precisely, regaining popularity that he's lost. This has happened before - Republicans make noise about abandoning Trump in the wake of a scandal or bad news, he loses support, and eventually the Republicans come crawling back to him. Clearly, Kamala's best chance of winning is to damage Trump close enough to the election that he won't recover his support in time. Less an October surprise than a very early November surprise.
ur retartet but u donut even no it and i walnut tell u y

Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #257 on: October 14, 2024, 05:56:16 PM »
genuine question(s) for trump voters -- why do you want to vote for trump? what is the thing about him that you believe will benefit you and/or the nation? or, if you like: why should i vote for trump, too?

these are not meant to be sarcastic questions at all, and i'm not gonna argue with your answers. just curious.
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Offline juner

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #258 on: October 14, 2024, 06:34:13 PM »

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: US Presidential Election 2024
« Reply #259 on: October 15, 2024, 12:50:46 AM »
There is a pretty simple explanation for why Kamala's popularity dropped after her recent media tour.

« Last Edit: October 15, 2024, 12:53:41 AM by Tom Bishop »