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Other Discussion Boards => Philosophy, Religion & Society => Topic started by: xasop on May 29, 2016, 10:26:01 AM

Title: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on May 29, 2016, 10:26:01 AM
tl;dr: Australia is fucked.

After the thoroughly underwhelming performance of Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister for the past year, we now have a choice between him and the most underwhelming Opposition Leader we've had in the past decade, Bill Shorten. They're both by and large in agreement on all their worst policies, and where they differ, they prefer to fling shit at the other guy's policies rather than back up their own with anything substantial.

What's more, the Greens -- who I have severe disagreements with as well, but they look like angels compared to the two big parties -- have gotten into bed with Turnbull to cement the major parties' power in the Senate with some half-baked voting reforms. Now Turnbull has called a double dissolution to get rid of minor party Senators, and it's doubtful whether a single one will be able to scrape up enough votes to return.

The only possible outcome of this election that won't be catastrophic is a hung Parliament. The less the circlejerk of powermongers that is Capital Hill can accomplish, the less they can fuck up.

Here you can see the two candidates for Prime Minister flinging shit at each other while failing to convince anyone why they should be in Parliament, let alone running the country:

http://livenews.abc.net.au/Event/Politics_live_May_29
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: Lord Dave on May 29, 2016, 10:48:56 AM
So Austrailia is just like America?
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on May 29, 2016, 01:57:34 PM
So Austrailia is just like America?

I would still take our political system over America's. While the outcome is the same, the reason for America having to pick between two shitty options is intrinsic to their system, while the reason for it being the case here is because voters are morons.

At least we have the potential to change if enough people get better educated. America can't change without some serious reforms.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: Luke 22:35-38 on May 31, 2016, 07:38:41 PM
Australia has elections?!?!?  :o :o ;D
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: İntikam on June 03, 2016, 09:27:54 AM
Is there anywhere is known as Australioua?  ??? 
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on June 19, 2016, 01:24:28 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0I0wae57nJ0

This is what passes for political campaigning in Australia in the 21st century.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: beardo on June 19, 2016, 01:46:31 PM
Surely it can't be worse than still having Abbott?
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on June 19, 2016, 02:14:13 PM
Surely it can't be worse than still having Abbott?

You would think so, but Turnbull has proven himself to be but a prettier face on the same old.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on June 25, 2016, 12:48:39 PM
1 week to go until we hit the polls!

All of the candidates for the House of Representatives in my electorate suck. I'll probably vote for the three Independents, then Labor, and then the even worse three (CDP, Liberal and Greens, probably in that order).

Fortunately, the Senate is less bleak. I'll be voting to re-elect this guy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-zJ_Y2x1mY
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 02, 2016, 02:47:33 AM
It's voting day! I'm going to spend a little bit of time reading about the options in the Senate (I already know more or less how I'm going to vote, just need to sort out my preference order) and then take a walk to the polling booth.

Wish us as a nation luck! We're going to need it...
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 02, 2016, 04:51:59 AM
I have compiled a list of 21 parties to preference in the Senate (Australia uses STV (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_vote) for our Senate), consisting of 20 minor parties and Labor. The idea is that my vote won't go to Labor unless any of the minor parties I like don't get it (and that would be a shitty outcome, but less shitty than it going to Liberal or the Greens).

Time to go and do my democratic duty!
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 02, 2016, 05:48:19 AM
I have voted.

In the House of Representatives, my vote will make no difference, as I live in a very safe Liberal electorate. It will still be interesting to see where my vote ends up after preference redistribution. If the two-party preferred is Liberal/Labor, then my vote will go to Labor; but if the two-party preferred is Liberal-Greens, my vote will go to Liberal (I preferenced Greens last).

In the Senate, things are spicier. I gave my first preference to Liberal Democratic Party (whence comes David Leyonhjelm in the video I posted before), and various other liberty- and democracy-promoting parties in the next 15 preferences. I only realised after voting that I forgot to include the Secular Party, but I can't do anything about that now.

My last 5 preferences are a few minor parties I would hate less than the major parties, and Labor, a major party which will swallow up my vote if none of my other preferences get elected.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 02, 2016, 06:52:21 AM
I'll be following the ABC's live election coverage tonight:

http://livenews.abc.net.au/Event/Election_day_14

The first results should start rolling in in about 2 hours. Polling is very close to 50-50, so we might not know who the next PM will be until after midnight, or even next week if there's a hung parliament.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 02, 2016, 08:25:16 AM
Counting is underway in Queensland, NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and the ACT. Polling booths in SA and NT will close in about 5 minutes (they're 30 minutes behind us civilised folk), which just leaves WA still voting for the next hour and a half.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 02, 2016, 08:36:16 AM
Aside from the ABC link above, I'll be following the counting using AEC's own website.

House of Representatives summary (the bit that's important for electing the new government):
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-20499.htm

My electorate:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-20499-132.htm

NSW senators (results tonight will only be provisional, as stated on the page):
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/SenateStatePage-20499-NSW.htm
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 02, 2016, 10:23:59 AM
Things are almost neck and neck. The Coalition have 62 seats so far, Labor have 58. 76 required to form government.

It's a bit early to call, but it looks as though we may get a hung parliament, which is the best outcome we could have hoped for.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 02, 2016, 11:27:10 AM
Still running extremely close. This is like 2010 all over again. Much better than the landslide 2013 election that brought us Tony "Stop the Boats" Abbott.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 02, 2016, 12:10:53 PM
So, it now looks very likely that the Coalition will get at least 75 seats. They need 76 to form government by themselves, but there are sufficiently many seats in doubt that it's impossible to call whether they'll make it. We likely won't know for sure until tomorrow.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 02, 2016, 02:20:43 PM
The election isn't even over yet, and there are calls for Malcolm Turnbull to resign (https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jul/02/andrew-bolt-demands-turnbull-resign-as-conservatives-turn-on-each-other-after-election). Also, for some reason Bill Shorten is celebrating victory despite not actually having won the election. His purported "victory" is simply the Liberals also not winning.

What the hell is going on?
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 02, 2016, 02:45:39 PM
Now Malcolm Turnbull is claiming victory prematurely too. "The election is over, only the counting remains." What a smug little prick.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 02, 2016, 02:51:41 PM
The election is hinging on five key seats:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-03/election-2016-five-seats-making-the-result-too-close-to-call/7564542

Apparently pre-poll votes should be finished counting within the next hour or so, but postal votes may not be counted for another few days. Depending on just how close these seats are, we may not know the result until the middle of next week.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 02, 2016, 03:23:46 PM
And counting has stopped for the night. It won't resume until Tuesday. Until then, we don't have a government.

Meanwhile, here's a decent summary of where we're at:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-03/election-result-what-happens-now/7564250

Tonight was certainly interesting. We got victory speeches from both major parties and still nobody knows who the winner is (or if there even is one). I'm giving up trying to understand politicians.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: Pete Svarrior on July 02, 2016, 09:22:38 PM
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-03/election-result-what-happens-now/7564250
"Green says the Coalition will win more seats than Labor, so a Labor majority government is not a possibility."

I don't think the ABC understands how possibilities work.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 03, 2016, 05:53:22 AM
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-03/election-result-what-happens-now/7564250
"Green says the Coalition will win more seats than Labor, so a Labor majority government is not a possibility."

I don't think the ABC understands how possibilities work.

That statement makes perfect sense to me. ???

Also, this election has achieved nothing Turnbull wanted it to and made the Senate even worse for him. The trigger for the double dissolution was some legislation he wanted to pass which was being blocked by the crossbench (i.e., parties which are not the Coalition or Labor and independents) in the Senate. That stems from the fact that the Coalition didn't control a clear majority in the Senate.

Well, now Turnbull has gone and dissolved the entire Senate, and the result is that he looks to have an even bigger Senate crossbench to contend with (we'll know for sure in a couple of weeks once all the votes are counted), and likely won't have a majority in the House of Representatives either. So far, this election has been a failure in every sense for Liberal, and a success for Labor only in the fact that it was a failure for Liberal, which makes the party leaders' continued optimism even more baffling.

Whatever happens, the coming weeks will be interesting to watch.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 04, 2016, 02:08:31 PM
Counting will resume in a few hours. The final result will likely still be slow coming in, as the most critical seats are going to be the ones where the counting is most closely scrutinised by the major parties, which will slow things down a lot. Apparently we should know by the end of the week, but it's impossible to say more precisely than that.

Anyway, let the shitstorm commence!
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 06, 2016, 04:43:33 AM
Day 5 of no government. Businesses are still trading, police are still enforcing the law, and public transport systems are still as good as they ever were (which isn't saying very much, mind you). As yet no detectable sign that anything is amiss.

We still have 8 seats in doubt: http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/list/?selector=indoubt&sort=latest

The one with the lowest percentage counted is 74.2% done, and slowly making progress. We might not know the final numbers until Friday at this rate.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: Pete Svarrior on July 06, 2016, 06:38:57 AM
Day 5 of no government. Businesses are still trading, police are still enforcing the law, and public transport systems are still as good as they ever were (which isn't saying very much, mind you). As yet no detectable sign that anything is amiss.
5 days is nothing, Belgium survived without a government for like 20 months. Up your game plz.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 06, 2016, 03:07:39 PM
5 days is nothing, Belgium survived without a government for like 20 months. Up your game plz.

Wait another 20 months and we'll see where things are at.

Looks like the counts are hovering around 80% for the seats in doubt. We may get a better idea of what our next Parliament will look like tomorrow.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 07, 2016, 08:51:07 AM
Bob Katter has declared his support for a Turnbull minority government in the event of a hung parliament:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-07/election-2016-bob-katter-to-support-turnbull-in-hung-parliament/7577738

With the way the seats in doubt are looking now, the Coalition could well end up with only 74 seats, meaning Katter's support wouldn't be enough on its own.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 07, 2016, 01:15:37 PM
The South Australian seat of Hindmarsh, currently with a 68-vote margin to Labor after 85.3% of votes counted, could be the difference between a Turnbull government and a return to the polls:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/hind/

If Liberal wins it, they'll likely get 75 seats and form government with the support of Bob Katter. If they don't, they might only win 74 seats and be unable to form government.

There's still a lot up in the air, so I wouldn't count on anything at this point.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 08, 2016, 08:23:15 AM
Well, Turnbull will be our next PM.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-08/antony-green-says-malcolm-turnbull-will-be-returned-as-pm/7580646

He's been promised support from three crossbenchers -- Bob Katter, of Katter's Australian Party, and independents Andrew Wilkie and Cathy McGowan. That will allow him to form minority government in the worst case of the Coalition only getting a 73-seat minority.

It is now only a question of whether he will form a majority government or a minority government. I'm hoping for a minority government, since at least then he'll be accountable to the crossbench, but the votes are still being counted -- the percent counted is lower than yesterday, so presumably they're having another recount.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 10, 2016, 09:22:26 AM
With 5 seats left in doubt, it's now looking probable that the Coalition will gain an outright majority of 76 seats -- the absolute minimum required to form a majority.

That's disappointing, but at least they'll still have the Senate to contend with when passing legislation.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 13, 2016, 01:43:46 PM
The Coalition now definitely has 76 seats. Damn it.

There's one last seat left in doubt, so it'll either be 76 Coalition and 69 Labor, or 77 Coalition and 68 Labor.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 16, 2016, 05:11:55 AM
That last seat currently has a margin of 12 votes:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/herb/

Whoever wins it, I'm sure there's going to be way more spending on infrastructure in Far North Queensland to appease swing voters.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: George on July 16, 2016, 12:42:12 PM
All in all, not the result you were hoping for?
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on July 19, 2016, 04:28:56 PM
All in all, not the result you were hoping for?

Not exactly.

The final result in the House of Representatives is that the Coalition has 76 seats. If only they'd gotten one fewer, we would have had a hung parliament and Turnbull would have had to negotiate with crossbenchers.

At least the Senate looks not entirely dismal. David Leyonhjelm still has a reasonable chance of winning his seat back. We should know any day now.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: xasop on August 04, 2016, 03:59:14 PM
David Leyonhjelm has been returned to the Senate, along with nobody else sane.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/senate/

At least we'll get another three years of sensible views being injected into debates. It's just a pity it's one voice among 76.
Title: Re: 2016 Australian federal election
Post by: Rama Set on August 05, 2016, 05:40:11 PM
Did Malcolm Roberts get reelected?