Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #441 on: March 12, 2016, 01:04:47 AM »
Trade deficits may not be as bad as Trump makes them out to be, but working to reduce them is hardly bad either - unless you wish to claim that creating jobs is bad.

but fixating on the trade deficit is to ignore half of the ledger of our balance of trade with china.  a trade deficit is a capital account surplus by definition: we imported more goods than we exported, so by definition we exported more of our financial assets (dollars) than we imported.  why is selling dollars for goods better or worse than selling goods for dollars?  from the perspective of balance of trade, they're equal.  reducing the trade deficit isn't per se good for growth, and manufacturing employment decline is empirically driven by production, not trade.

let's suppose that i run a firm in america, and i want to buy computers for my business.  so, i spend some of my dollars importing computers from china.  they get dollars, and i get a computer.  one day my accountant comes to me and says, "bad business practices, dude.  we're losing to china!  we've imported a bunch of computers from china, but we've exported no goods to them at all!  we're running a trade deficit!  unless we start exporting goods to china, we're in real trouble!"

on the other side of the globe is the firm from which i bought computers.  one day their accountant goes to the ceo and says, "bad business practices, dude.  we're losing to america!  we've imported a bunch of capital from america, but we've exported no capital to them at all!  we're running a capital account deficit!  unless we start exporting financial assets to america, we're in real trouble!"

no doubt this analogy is fatally flawed somewhere, but i only want it to demonstrate that both of these hypothetical accountants are saying the same thing and making the same mistake: failing to acknowledge the other side of the ledger.  neither of them is running a true "deficit," they're just trading financial assets for goods.  whether or not the deal is good for me is just a function of what my firm can do with what i just bought.  if i buy goods that help me expand my business and hire new employees, then it's obviously good for growth and employment.  if i buy a bunch of dirt and leave it sitting in a pile, then it's a bad deal for growth.

likewise, the value of our trade with china can't be understood by looking at one side of the ledger or the other.  its relationship to growth and employment is a function of what we're buying.

And I think it's kinda interesting that you think he says "whatever we want to hear" when discussing a topic people barely understand in the first place. Just out of curiosity though, if you think Trump is misinformed and only speaking to people's fantasies, what do you think of Bernie Sanders? His policies are deliberately impossible and carry intrinsic and easy to understand benefits to the working class and college kids. His whole platform is just fantasy fulfillment. Shouldn't the support he's gaining be just as frightening to you, if not more so?

i mentioned already that i think sanders is employing much of the same rhetoric of fearpandering (that's a word, right?) as trump.  i find most of what sanders has to say about wall street/finance/capitalism/free trade extremely divisive and counterproductive.  that said, i don't find it frightening the way i find trump's nationalism frightening.
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Offline Blanko

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #442 on: March 12, 2016, 11:17:41 AM »
I don't think it's fair to generalize trade deficits as a literal non-issue as you seem to portray them as, but if it's that much of a trigger to you, I'm willing to drop it - my point will stand just fine without it.

Meanwhile, these fascist BLM thugs in Chicago are playing right into Trump's hands - don't they realize that turning him into a martyr will only guarantee him the presidency? It happened with Reagan, it will happen with Trump.

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Offline Rushy

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #443 on: March 12, 2016, 12:45:22 PM »
BLM simultaneously made Trump look good and caused Kasich, Rubio and Cruz to crucify themselves by blaming Trump for the riot. BLM and Bernie supporters just did more for Trump than the rally alone ever could.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2016, 01:18:40 PM by Rushy »


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Offline Rushy

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #445 on: March 12, 2016, 02:46:50 PM »
Well yeah, no shit states where independents and democrats vote makes a difference. Cruz is a looney that only the most hardcore neocons could possibly like. Trump is a moderate that is drawing the old Reagan Democrats out of the woodworks. This is why Cruz has zero chance of ever winning the general election. Ol' Lyin' Ted makes people so uncomfortable a neurologist had to investigate his creepy face: https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-fallible-mind/201601/why-ted-cruz-s-facial-expression-makes-me-uneasy

Trump is already proving he is better than the other candidates on both sides of the election.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2016, 02:49:37 PM by Rushy »

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #446 on: March 12, 2016, 02:55:58 PM »
Yeah, I don't know how people can think Cruz stands a chance in a general election. There simply aren't enough ultra-conservatives in the US for that to be mathematically possible. You need the moderate vote to win a general election, which Trump has.

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #447 on: March 12, 2016, 03:10:47 PM »
A general election is won because of three basic factors (they proved to be a decisive element at least in the last four presidential elections): Hispanic vote, African-American vote and the Catholic vote.

8 out of 10 Hispanics view Trump as unfavorable.

Given the KKK comments, you can imagine the percentage of the Black vote actually going to Trump.

You don't argue with a Jesuit Pontiff, if you want the Catholic vote to be in your favor.


Democrats are praying that Trump will make it into the final: no matter who is up against him, either Clinton or Sanders, it will turn into a disaster for the GOP (not to mention the Senate and the House elections, where prospecting republican challengers/incumbents will actually have to run anti-Trump ads).

Virtually the ONLY issue that has benefited Trump was/is the trade/economy: a clever ad campaign focusing on the university scam will put an end to his image as a successful businessman.

Let us remember also the tax returns issue: in just a few months' time, Trump will have no choice but to release them to the public/media's scrutiny.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2016, 03:25:13 PM by sandokhan »

Offline Blanko

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #448 on: March 12, 2016, 03:18:44 PM »
You're placing way too much emphasis on the KKK thing. It was a petty media spin that nobody took seriously.

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #449 on: March 12, 2016, 06:54:47 PM »
BLM simultaneously made Trump look good and caused Kasich, Rubio and Cruz to crucify themselves by blaming Trump for the riot. BLM and Bernie supporters just did more for Trump than the rally alone ever could.
This is good for Bitcoin.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #450 on: March 12, 2016, 07:25:56 PM »
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11141692/trump-university-fraud-lawsuit

Bad news for Donald Trump: a court strengthened a fraud lawsuit against Trump University

Before the presidential campaign is over, Donald Trump could end up having to testify in three separate cases about his allegedly fraudulent university.

A New York appeals court ruled Monday that a $40 million lawsuit from the state's attorney general could proceed, and that it could include evidence from up to six years ago about Trump University's deceptive practices.

Trump University wasn't a university but a multilevel marketing scam

Trump University — which was never licensed to call itself a "university" — shut down in 2010. But the legal fallout, including Schneiderman's suit, has continued.

The university, Schneiderman has charged, was a "bait and switch," a classic multilevel marketing scheme: People are told that the real benefits they want are only available if they keep paying, essentially urging them to throw good money after bad.

People were lured into a free workshop with marketing materials that promised they'd learn Trump's real estate secrets from his "handpicked" instructors and maybe even from Trump himself. Instead, they were urged to sign up for a three-day seminar that cost nearly $1,500. And at that seminar, they were pushed to sign up for an elite mentorship program that could cost as much as $35,000 per year.

Trump didn't handpick the mentors. He didn't write the curriculum. He didn't even show up at the seminars. Instead, students got to take a photo with a cardboard cutout of him.

Even the most expensive mentorship didn't deliver, Schneiderman's lawsuit charges. Some mentors simply vanished. Others had no background in real estate at all.

When Trump's candidacy looked like a publicity stunt, Trump University mostly flew under the radar.

Two class-action lawsuits from Trump University students are also working their way through the legal system in San Diego district court. Trump University's treatment of the elderly is getting special scrutiny: Some of the plaintiffs are over 60 and sank tens of thousands of dollars into Trump University's workshops and mentorships.

The final pretrial conferences for the cases are in March and June, and at least one could go to trial as soon as August.

US District Judge Gonzalo Curiel, has said he's eager to move the cases forward and has acknowledged that it's unusual to have a presidential candidate in his courtroom, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune. And it's likely that Trump himself will have to testify: He's on the witness list.

As Time magazine's Steve Brill pointed out, Trump University's victims often look a lot like Trump's voters: lower middle class, white, often elderly, and worried about their economic situation.



Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #452 on: March 12, 2016, 08:17:34 PM »
http://whitetrashtest.com/tag/trump-university-scam/ (the best analysis of the trump university scam)

The Attorney General noted that at the free seminars, instructors played a video featuring Donald Trump telling prospective students, ‘We’re going to have professors that are absolutely terrific – terrific people, terrific brains, successful, the best’ and noted that they were ‘all people that are handpicked by me.’”

Sound familiar?  These allegations are easy to believe because those words mimic what Donald Trump is presently telling the American people in his run for the Republican presidential nomination.  Elect Trump, and America will be great again.  Elect Trump, and he will handpick the best and the brightest and the most terrific, tough minds to negotiate our deals and solve all our problems.  Elect Trump, and we will all be successful and rich beyond our expectations.

In the same way as Donald Trump conducts his presidential campaign, Trump laces his pitch for Trump University with glittering generalities and get-rich-quick language.  Trump entices his audience by telling them that if they sign up with Trump University and take action, then they will become a success, unless they simply don’t love it, in which case, “it’s never, ever going to work.”  When they arrive at the seminar, the Trump University pitch keeps increasing the size of the carrot in front of the donkey.  Follow Trump, and all of America becomes rich and successful, more rich and successful with each new speech he gives.  Don’t follow Trump, and the people of America really don’t want to be successful and are content with being losers.

Trump wants us to believe he will replace all the incompetent, stupid, weak, lightweight, political hacks with the brightest, most terrific, successful, best of the best, toughest people who will manage with maximum efficiency and negotiate deals so good they will fix everything Trump perceives to be wrong with American.  But what does the experience with Trump University foretell, and why are so many people suing him for what they perceive to have been a scam?

“Given the state of the law, [Trump] would be at substantial risk of being embroiled in these [Trump University] lawsuits while serving as president.”

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Offline Rushy

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #453 on: March 12, 2016, 09:10:47 PM »
BLM simultaneously made Trump look good and caused Kasich, Rubio and Cruz to crucify themselves by blaming Trump for the riot. BLM and Bernie supporters just did more for Trump than the rally alone ever could.
This is good for Bitcoin.

Hilariously enough I did think about that exact statement while I was typing. "Shit, this is just like the 'this is good for bitcoin' meme, eh, whatever" The event has already made a genuine impact on poll numbers, so it isn't like I was wrong in any case.


Rubio is going the way of Jeb! and he'll be asking people to 'please clap' any day now: http://townhall.com/columnists/rebeccahagelin/2016/03/08/the-rubio-rally-that-wasnt-n2130095
« Last Edit: March 13, 2016, 12:38:03 AM by Rushy »

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #454 on: March 13, 2016, 07:15:06 AM »


http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/10/trump-wine-is-built-on-acres-of-lies.html

Is that true?  The wbsite does say that its not affiliated with Donald Tump...


If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #455 on: March 13, 2016, 07:39:07 AM »


http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/10/trump-wine-is-built-on-acres-of-lies.html

Is that true?  The wbsite does say that its not affiliated with Donald Tump...

It's a Trump Wine, just like Trump said. It's his son's company.

Offline Blanko

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #456 on: March 13, 2016, 01:15:30 PM »
The tolerant left:




Please remember that Trump supporters are all scum of the earth evil racists. (◕‿◕✿)

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #457 on: March 13, 2016, 01:28:38 PM »
The tolerant left:




Please remember that Trump supporters are all scum of the earth evil racists. (◕‿◕✿)
I looked at the videos but had no sound so I dkdn't hear anything. 

Not sure what it proves.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

Offline Blanko

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #458 on: March 13, 2016, 01:31:35 PM »
The tolerant left:




Please remember that Trump supporters are all scum of the earth evil racists. (◕‿◕✿)
I looked at the videos but had no sound so I dkdn't hear anything. 

Not sure what it proves.

Um, okay. Maybe next time watch the videos with sound before making a post with zero input?

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Offline Rushy

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #459 on: March 13, 2016, 01:37:52 PM »
Are you okay, Dave? Are they giving you any strange pills or injections in Norway?