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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #141 on: February 03, 2016, 09:14:44 AM »
The wisdom of cracked:

If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #142 on: February 03, 2016, 12:13:54 PM »
The chances of her winning all six is so improbable that I call bullshit.

1.5% chance of all six being in her favor. So it isn't terrible, but I still call bull.

www.npr.org/2016/02/02/465268206/coin-toss-fact-check-no-coin-flips-did-not-win-iowa-for-hillary-clinton

Long story short: the coin tosses didn't amount to much and were independant flips.  Also, caucuses are fucking confusing.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

Offline Blanko

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #143 on: February 03, 2016, 03:22:54 PM »
Iowa was a victory for Trump. Cruz winning in his base state was the expected result, and the fact that he barely won even while committing voting fraud means he's on thin ice. This result simply shows that Trump is a legitimate candidate and he's going to take NH easy.

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Offline Rushy

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #144 on: February 03, 2016, 04:50:52 PM »
Both Sanders and Trump each have extremely large leads in the NH polls so we'll see how that works out next Tuesday. 

It'll be a truly interesting race if we end up with a Trump vs Sanders ordeal.

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Offline Pete Svarrior

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #145 on: February 03, 2016, 05:03:24 PM »
r u b i o   2 0 1 6
Read the FAQ before asking your question - chances are we already addressed it.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #146 on: February 03, 2016, 05:21:15 PM »
On the Republican side, the 18 percentage points difference in the recent NH polls can be overcome as I have described earlier.

On the Democratic side, there might still be surprises: if a major war breaks out, as I have said before, Obama's chances for a third term increase greatly.

If Hillary is forced to drop out of the race, another major figure (perhaps Kerry) might step in.

Let us go back to my message posted on December 12:

http://forum.tfes.org/index.php?topic=3243.msg82618#msg82618

The number of candidates will then narrow considerably: conservative side vs. moderate (establishment) side.

This is exactly what is happening now: Cruz vs. Rubio. However, the establishment vote is split among several candidates, especially on March 1.

Then, on March 1, the evangelical vote will be of considerable importance, especially if one of the candidates is from a home state.

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #147 on: February 03, 2016, 05:25:23 PM »
so you correctly predicted that the field would narrow after iowa and that the evangelical vote would be important

wow gj i'm impressed 10/10
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #148 on: February 03, 2016, 05:36:32 PM »
There is another point of view which offers a different take on the whole situation:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/jeb-bush-is-2016s-john-kerry-213341

However, this time around the moderate/establishment vote is split up all the way to "super tuesday", after which it might be too late to try to emulate Kerry's 2004 campaign.


« Last Edit: February 03, 2016, 05:43:18 PM by sandokhan »

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #149 on: February 03, 2016, 05:55:52 PM »
On the Republican side, the 18 percentage points difference in the recent NH polls can be overcome as I have described earlier.

On the Democratic side, there might still be surprises: if a major war breaks out, as I have said before, Obama's chances for a third term increase greatly.

If Hillary is forced to drop out of the race, another major figure (perhaps Kerry) might step in.

Let us go back to my message posted on December 12:

http://forum.tfes.org/index.php?topic=3243.msg82618#msg82618

The number of candidates will then narrow considerably: conservative side vs. moderate (establishment) side.

This is exactly what is happening now: Cruz vs. Rubio. However, the establishment vote is split among several candidates, especially on March 1.

Then, on March 1, the evangelical vote will be of considerable importance, especially if one of the candidates is from a home state.

Obama won't get a 3rd term just like Bush didn't.

Yes, the field would narrow.  Thats a given.

What about Trump?  Its clearly Cruz vs Trump now.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #150 on: February 03, 2016, 06:03:07 PM »

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Offline Rushy

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #151 on: February 03, 2016, 06:21:34 PM »
It would be incredibly easy to vote fix electronic ballots. It's why a lot of countries still use paper ballots.

I'm not saying that's what happened, but it could very easily be done.

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #152 on: February 03, 2016, 06:53:49 PM »
On March 1, whichever of the candidates is from a home state, will win big overall on that day.

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #153 on: February 03, 2016, 07:14:10 PM »
On March 1, whichever of the candidates is from a home state, will win big overall on that day.

So Carly Fiorina will win big.  Got it.
Also Ted Cruz.

But that's it.  So which one will win big?  Or will both win big?
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #154 on: February 03, 2016, 07:30:15 PM »
According to exit polls, evangelical Christians comprised a majority of 2012 Republican primary voters in Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Louisiana, and majorities of 2008 voters in Texas, Missouri, and Arkansas (states where exit polls were not conducted last time). Although exit polls aren’t available, evangelicals, based on their share of the overall population, will likely comprise a majority of GOP voters in other Heartland states including Kansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

In December, Cruz held only three events in Iowa, but attended 10 in the South.

By contrast, Trump's sole super state visit was to Virginia (one event). Likewise, Fiorina made only one visit to the southern states.

Cruz has devoted significant time and resources to the southern states even at a very early stage of the primaries.




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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #155 on: February 03, 2016, 09:10:19 PM »
According to exit polls, evangelical Christians comprised a majority of 2012 Republican primary voters in Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Louisiana, and majorities of 2008 voters in Texas, Missouri, and Arkansas (states where exit polls were not conducted last time). Although exit polls aren’t available, evangelicals, based on their share of the overall population, will likely comprise a majority of GOP voters in other Heartland states including Kansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

In December, Cruz held only three events in Iowa, but attended 10 in the South.

By contrast, Trump's sole super state visit was to Virginia (one event). Likewise, Fiorina made only one visit to the southern states.

Cruz has devoted significant time and resources to the southern states even at a very early stage of the primaries.

Still waiting for an answer.  Which gop candidate with a home state on march 1 will win big?  You can't just say that and there be two possibilities.
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #156 on: February 04, 2016, 07:25:21 AM »
The answer that you seek is virtually contained in the question that you posed: I already explained that Fiorina has not devoted the time/resources needed to win in the South.

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Offline Lord Dave

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #157 on: February 04, 2016, 07:42:12 AM »
The answer that you seek is virtually contained in the question that you posed: I already explained that Fiorina has not devoted the time/resources needed to win in the South.

See, I got what you implied, but you said before that whoever would have a home state march 1 would win big.  So I wanted a concrete, non-horoscope answer.  (Because you didn't check who had a home state before posting)

So, Ted Cruz will wil big March 1.  Is thst what you're saying?
If you are going to DebOOonK an expert then you have to at least provide a source with credentials of equal or greater relevance. Even then, it merely shows that some experts disagree with each other.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #158 on: February 04, 2016, 03:06:01 PM »

Re: 2016 US Presidential Race
« Reply #159 on: February 04, 2016, 03:30:26 PM »
Let us suppose that the numbers listed in the latest polls are somewhat right: with a very good ground operation, Cruz can add some 10% to his current standing. But it still won't be enough.

Therefore, the only way Cruz can win NH is if undeclared voters sign up to vote in the Republican primary, a very real possibility.