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Messages - crutonius

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21
Also Russia required Ukraine to give up a large part of its territory and dismantle its military.

Odd that zelensky didn't agree to that.

Incorrect. It does not say that in the link I provided. You have provided no source on that.

Even according to the Reuters timeline, it looks like NATO/Ukraine were the aggressors and were not interested in a peaceful solution:

https://web.archive.org/web/20220308213432/https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/events-leading-up-russias-invasion-ukraine-2022-02-28/

    Dec. 17 2021: Russia presents security demands including that NATO pull back troops and weapons from eastern Europe and bar Ukraine from ever joining.

    Jan. 24 2022: NATO puts forces on standby and reinforces eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets.

    Jan. 26: Washington responds to Russia's security demands, repeating a commitment to NATO's "open-door" policy while offering a "pragmatic evaluation" of Moscow's concerns. Two days later Russia says its demands not addressed.

    Feb. 2022: Amid growing Western fears Russia could attack Ukraine, the United States says it will send 3,000 extra troops to NATO members Poland and Romania. Washington and allies say they will not send troops to Ukraine, but warn of severe economic sanctions if Russian President Vladimir Putin takes military action.

    Feb. 21: In a TV address, Putin says Ukraine is an integral part of Russian history and has a puppet regime managed by foreign powers. Putin orders what he called peacekeeping forces into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, after recognising them as independent.

    Feb. 22: The U.S., Britain and their allies sanction Russian parliament members, banks and other assets in response to Putin's troop order. Germany halts the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project.

    Feb. 23: Russian-backed separatist leaders ask Russia for help repelling aggression from the Ukrainian army.

    Feb. 24: Putin authorizes "special military operations" in Ukraine. Russian forces begin missile and artillery attacks, striking major Ukrainian cities including Kiev.

I can dig it up if you want later on.  This "peace" negotiation did progress along a steady path.  Putin's demand were all over the place.  I've seen neutrality as a demand.  It almost always included disarmament as a requirement for Russia's "legitimate security concerns".  Maybe you've found a few stories where he doesn't mention it but usually he does.  He just framed his demands in such a way that neutrality was always the first thing and disarmament was in the fine print.  The media, of course, fell for it and allowed him to muddy the waters.

22
Zelensky had also rejected peace days before the war had begun. Germany had attempted to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia to avoid war. Zelensky rejected it.

Wall Street Journal - https://archive.ph/K39FE#selection-1671.0-1671.370

    Mr. Scholz made one last push for a settlement between Moscow and Kyiv. He told Mr. Zelensky in Munich on Feb. 19 that Ukraine should renounce its NATO aspirations and declare neutrality as part of a wider European security deal between the West and Russia. The pact would be signed by Mr. Putin and Mr. Biden, who would jointly guarantee Ukraine’s security.

    Mr. Zelensky said Mr. Putin couldn’t be trusted to uphold such an agreement and that most Ukrainians wanted to join NATO. His answer left German officials worried that the chances of peace were fading.

Also Russia required Ukraine to give up a large part of its territory and dismantle its military.

Odd that zelensky didn't agree to that.

24
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: President Joe Biden
« on: October 07, 2022, 08:48:23 PM »
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/10/06/oil-dispute-prompts-call-remove-us-troops-saudi-arabia-uae.html

I don't know how serious they are about this but I really want to see this happen.

25
Yes.  You can support Putin, who is a demonstrable shithole who makes people's lives materially worse in almost every conceivable fashion, or not.  Your choice.

How so exactly? In public Putin is a Christian who promotes traditional values. Everything else is a conspiracy theory about how he blew up apartment buildings which allowed him to win on a pro-police platform or whatever.

If you actually have anything that is confirmed as factual please tell us. All I have ever heard is unconfirmed theory and propaganda.

Quote
When the person who is elected shows her support and admiration for Mussolini and his policies, it seems a logical conclusion.

Which policies? Both Hitler and Mussolini had good economic policies which benefitted their nation. That is not in dispute. Even standard textbooks describe their policies as prosperous for their countries.

Quote
lol, you can try and hand wave away the actions of these people, but fortunately we don't rely on you for information.

Yes clearly, you just repeat the liberal byline on the media almost verbatim.

Is butchering civilians and stealing the filling in their teeth a traditional Christian value?

I'm just curious.  I haven't studied the Bible in a while.  I suppose it's possible that jesus condoned this sort of behavior.

26
I just don't know what to say.  I think we're living in different realities. 

The ISW, which I assume you regard as reputable since you referenced it, paints a bleak picture of the Russian Military.

https://www.iswresearch.org/

This map has a feature which you can click through day by day to see what progress each side has made.

https://deepstatemap.live/en#9/46.4748/33.6044

Yes, we do seem to live in different realities, which is odd, considering we're using the same source. The source I'm reading and looking at so far says nothing you have claimed. Are you sure you know how to read? Is the map confusing to you somehow?

I apologize for the insultingly basic suggestion.  I realize that as a professional with technology that I may suggest things that aren't necessary possible for those of us who aren't that computer literate.  I'm going to try for some basic instructions as to how to ease this website.  By all means let me know if you maybe are confused about some of the controls.  No shame.  Happens to us all.

https://deepstatemap.live/en#9/46.4748/33.6044

Close to the bottom right there's a clock icon.

click on it and set the date to the first of September.

Then Click the right every to advance one day and the advantages associated with it.

You see that that as you click the right arrow, which represents time going forward, that the Ukrainians are taking more and more territory.  And for the last month that shows increasing gains on behalf of the Ukrainians. 

I'm also going to track down a gif that should be things even simpler to understand.

Try that.  See if you still disagree with me.

27
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: The DEMS have destroyed Californya.
« on: October 04, 2022, 09:56:56 PM »
Cali kind of does suck.  There's way too many goddamn people there.

Why don't you leave if you don't like it?

28
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: The DEMS have destroyed Californya.
« on: October 04, 2022, 09:32:09 PM »
Why don't you just support Russia and buy a Tesla model Z?


29
And if this comes down to resources then Russia loses.

Debatable. Countries can take on debt, if need be, to fight wars. The more debt you take on the more interest you have to pay on that debt. Countries fail when they can't pay the interest on their debt. It is known that the US and various Western European countries are already living near their limits.

Here are some quotes:

Russia: "In 2021, the national debt of Russia amounted to about 17.02 percent of gross domestic product."

US: "US Government debt accounted for 126.7 % of the country's Nominal GDP in Jun 2022,"

UK: "Now Britain is in the 100% debt-to-GDP club, what’s the spending plan?"

Italy: "Italy Government debt accounted for 152.6 % of the country's Nominal GDP in Mar 2022,"

All biggest Western Countries and allies: "Developed countries in the 100% club are a motley lot: Cyprus, France, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy, plus Canada, Japan and the US."

So Russia might have a larger relative credit card to rack up debt on. The US and the biggest NATO countries are known to be spend-a-holics who are living at the limit, largely due to massive welfare and socialist programs enacted by liberals who do not care about fiscal responsibility. It is quite possible that fiscally conservative Russia can start spending on their credit and outspend them all. Also, $100 USD goes a lot further in Russia than in the US and UK. It's more like $500 based on what you can buy with it.

At this moment it's primarily about 6 almost insolvent countries vs. 1 (Russia).

If China and Brazil team up with Russia, as they have been suggesting recently based on UN votes on Russia condemnation and sanction, it may spell significant trouble for NATO. Those countries are fiscally conservative, do not overspend on welfare programs, and have much lower gdp to debt ratios than the US or Western European nations (~50% debt to gdp).

I think it might paint a clearer picture to consider absolute gdp instead of percentage of debt.  Our media sort of paints a picture of the West being a lot more helpful to Ukraine than we actually are.

Let me throw out a few things to put things in perspective:

The US has committed around 60 billion to Ukraine.  I think we've actually delivered about 14 billion.  This number is deceptive though.  Quite a bit of this was equipment that was obsolete and costing us money to maintain.  Most of it was a sunk cost.  It's hardware that we've already built to fight a country like Russia.  There really isn't a reason to replace it.

We suffer about 150 billion a year in hurricane damage.  So hurricanes are a bigger drain on us than Ukraine is by somewhere between 3 and 10 times.

The UK is in a bit of trouble but that's mostly from stabbing itself in the face with Brexit and massive tax cuts for the rich.

Russia and China are not friends or even allies.  China stands more to lose by severing ties with us than they do by helping Russia.  I don't know much about the geopolitics of Brazil.

There's a cost to this whole to the whole world regarding various supply chain disruptions but that's here to stay.  Even if the war were ending tomorrow a lot of countries would still refuse to trade with Russian since the mask is off now.  They're an unreliable and hostile trading partner.

30
Russia's lost a huge amount of territory in the North.  Even now they're losing more territory on that front.

No, they haven't and no, they're not. Stop making things up.

The only front Russia is making progress is around Bakmut.  Slowly.  Very slowly.

The ISW, where you got your map from, has stated that Russia's army is in danger of collapse multiple times.

Absolutely none of what you just said is true, amazing. Care to try again?

I just don't know what to say.  I think we're living in different realities. 

The ISW, which I assume you regard as reputable since you referenced it, paints a bleak picture of the Russian Military.

https://www.iswresearch.org/

This map has a feature which you can click through day by day to see what progress each side has made.

https://deepstatemap.live/en#9/46.4748/33.6044

31
Russia is quite clearly not holding the line.

This depends on what region you're talking about. In northern Ukraine, the counteroffensive is pushing the Russians back. In Southern Ukraine, the counteroffensive has already been defeated and Russian forces are retaking the border regions that they lost in the first few weeks.

Their army is in danger of collapsing.

According to who? No war analyst agrees with what you just said.


The map below makes it pretty clear. The red stripes are regions Russian forces are pushing into as of this post. They've almost retaken all of the territory lost in the southern counteroffensive.





Russia's lost a huge amount of territory in the North.  Even now they're losing more territory on that front.

In Kherson they're making new advances in the Northern end of it.  They've moving pretty fast recently.  Kherson is interesting because I don't think retaking it is their primary goal.  I think they're trying to degrade the Russian army.

The only front Russia is making progress is around Bakmut.  Slowly.  Very slowly.

The ISW, where you got your map from, has stated that Russia's army is in danger of collapse multiple times.

32


7 months later...



Since Ukraine is a proxy war for the US and NATO countries, whom Russia is really fighting, it appears that Russia is holding the line in some areas and and advancing. When powerful foes fight it is not uncommon for boundaries to be unmoved by significant margins for relatively long periods of time.

However, it is clear from those maps that Russia is winning this. If US/NATO/Ukraine were winning they would have taken back Crimea by now.

Considering that many of the Ukraine resources are coming from outside of the country and can't be easily stopped, at this stage I would expect this to be a relative stalemate until one side runs out of resources.

Russia is quite clearly not holding the line. Their army is in danger of collapsing.

And if this comes down to resources then Russia loses.

33
https://tass.com/world/1517621

Oh noes! Zelensky just declared those territories unannexed!

I guess they'll have to run those referendums all over again.

34
Indeed.  They're retreating from Ukrainian territory at a record pace.

Good news for Ukraine.  Though I fear all of this intense panic running the Russians are doing might give them an unfair advantage in the olympics.

35
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Ron DeSantis is a shitbag
« on: October 02, 2022, 10:04:06 PM »
Then whats the point of emergency funding?
If your house is flooded to the point where it needs to be rebuilt, do you just get some emergency funding for a week at a hotel and thats it?  Is spending a year to rebuild your house (or more depending on how many houses need to be rebuilt) not an emergency?

Many of the fundamental problems with the bill are not even about rebuilding what the hurricane damaged. The emergency hurricane relief request contained significant items which were going towards projects that were unrelated to the hurricane damage:

https://www.dailysignal.com/2012/12/14/hurricane-sandy-and-fema-abuse/

    Last week, President Obama issued a request for $60.4 billion for Hurricane Sandy response and recovery. . . .Roughly $28 billion of the request is marked for future disaster-mitigation projects on the East Coast, including $3.2 million for erosion control projects and $15 billion for Housing and Urban Development Community Development Block Grants. As Heritage’s Matt Mayer explains, “Setting aside whether these projects have merit, a supplemental spending request to deal with a current crisis is not the appropriate vehicle to propose new spending projects.”

    ...Remove unnecessary items from the Administration’s request, and you’re left with a request of $12.8 billion in supplemental funds. . . .Proponents of looking at offsets for the hurricane supplemental have a point. As Mayer explains, “Too much of the Obama Administration’s supplemental request for Hurricane Sandy includes items best left for its upcoming budget.… Because of the federal government’s dire fiscal condition, underscored by the current fiscal cliff negotiations, spending reductions should offset any additional spending.”

If they want money for future disaster-mitigation projects then they should have acted honestly and created a request for that with the normal way they get funding, not try to sneak it into the hurricane sandy emergency relief.
Maybe so.  Sadly, American politics doesn't work like. 
I'm all for a 1 bill, one issue kinda system.  But I'm pretty sure the midwestern states and westard would just vote "no" because why should they care about the East Coast?  Politicians represent their state or area and their state/area generally doesn't give a shit about everyone else's problems.
So nothing would get done and the next Superstorm that hits would require yet another emergency bill.

I don't know.  I think most Americans are cognizant of how connected the states are to each other economically.  Places like Texas and Florida, while they have vile politicians in charge of them are just not areas that we can allow to be down for any amount of time. 

Objecting to future disaster mitigations is also kind of a head scratcher to me.  Do republicans really think that this will be the last hurricane that'll hit Florida?  What if spending 10 billion hardening infrastructure in these storm areas saves 50 billion in damages?  It's financially irresponsible to not prepare for what we know with absolute certainty will happen again.

36
Doesn't fall off bike...



A fantastic idea.  Let him fight his war.

37
https://www.rt.com/russia/563911-blinken-ukraine-retake-territory/

Russia's highest court approves Ukraine vote. Monday Russia votes on accepting areas. Biden thinks were going to fund another stupid war we have nothing to do with.. Putin is going to level the remaining Ukraine and take any resources left.

NATO is going to freeze in more ways than one.

I would like to point out that since the start of this war the country that has donated the most equipment to Ukraine is Russia.

Ukraine is merely field testing some of our newest weaponry for free and getting rid of a lot of our obsolete equipment that costs us money to store and maintain.

38
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Ron DeSantis is a shitbag
« on: October 01, 2022, 10:47:14 PM »
Ron DeSantis is busy tackling the real cause of hurricanes:  Critical Race Theory!

39
Philosophy, Religion & Society / Re: Ron DeSantis is a shitbag
« on: October 01, 2022, 05:45:25 PM »
They vote no but take the dough.

40
It's genius!

Putin now has the power to annex an area and conscript his people just by thinking about it, a power he learned from Trump.

Before he was killing hundreds of thousands of civilians.  Now right before a rocket hits a civilian convoy he can just declare them mobilized and call it friendly fire.

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