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Offline RonJ

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Re: Astronomical Prediction Based on Patterns
« Reply #120 on: November 24, 2018, 08:55:07 PM »
I like that prediction map.  The last total solar ellipse I've personally witnessed was over 60 years ago.  I've seen a couple lunar eclipses in the last 10 years.  This discussion did go off the rails many posts ago as I tried to say myself.  Unfortunately I was also complicit (sadly) in the continuation of the n-body argument myself.  You see diversionary tactics on here all the time.  The whole point isn't to propagate any new information but to simply generate posts.  The more posts the better.   Probably there is a logic ladder that someone has that says something like this:  If the discussion is on subject A then throw out a question on subject B,  or say subject C has got to be false.  You see subjects of a similar nature on here with the same kinds of diversions evoked.  For me the whole thing is interesting. 
« Last Edit: November 24, 2018, 09:01:14 PM by RonJ »
You can lead flat earthers to the curve but you can't make them think!

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Offline juner

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Re: Astronomical Prediction Based on Patterns
« Reply #121 on: November 25, 2018, 05:12:13 AM »
Please shut off your trolling motor, drop anchor, and put out a hook and a line for some facts that you can keep.

Do me a favor and don’t do that. Warned.

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Astronomical Prediction Based on Patterns
« Reply #122 on: November 25, 2018, 09:55:59 PM »
You can't produce this based on a mere cycle:


I do not see why not. You just posted a cycle. That very gif animation is a cycle that repeats itself. The eclipses repeat themselves. And if they have trends that differ, that can be accounted for.

Prediction in astronomy is merely the use of equations to predict the cycles.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2018, 09:58:00 PM by Tom Bishop »

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Offline Bobby Shafto

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Re: Astronomical Prediction Based on Patterns
« Reply #123 on: November 25, 2018, 10:23:57 PM »

I do not see why not. You just posted a cycle. That very gif animation is a cycle that repeats itself.

Not sure if serious. Should I report this as low-content trolling? Or are you sincere in equating a looping animated graphic of a specific eclipse as being an example of the cyclic nature of eclipses?

Here's a challenge. The coming eclipse depicted in this animation has specific characteristics:
- where and when it begins
- where and when it ends
- where and when it will be at maximum
- duration of the eclipse at that maximum
- where on the earth's surface totality can be observed
- where on the earth's surface partial eclipse can be observed
- the magnitude (how much larger the angular diameter of the moon -- or shadow object -- is than the sun)

When were the previous solar eclipses to have the same characteristics as this one such that you can claim this one is predictable simply by a cyclical pattern? Go ahead and peruse Saros 127 (of which this eclipse is a part) and find the pattern for me that allows for prediction of the above details.


The eclipses repeat themselves. And if they have trends that differ, that can be accounted for.

Prediction in astronomy is merely the use of equations to predict the cycles.

Show me.