Offline reer

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Eclipse prediction
« on: January 21, 2024, 03:11:41 AM »
Astronomers have predicted, using RE theories, that a total solar eclipse will occur over the USA on 8 April this year. Their predictions are very detailed, giving the band of totality, the times when it will be visible across the country, where you can see a partial eclipse, etc. See, for example, these websites:

https://www.planetary.org/press-releases/total-solar-eclipse-countdown?autologin=true&s_src=downlink&s_subsrc=20240119
https://www.planetary.org/eclipse

Here are my questions:
  Does FE predict eclipses?
  What method does you use?
  Or do you predict that this eclipse will not happen?

Note: as for my other question, "I don't know" is an acceptable answer, obfuscation is not.

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Eclipse prediction
« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2024, 02:20:08 AM »
Eclipse prediction has been long discussed. I would suggest reading and respond to the Wiki - https://wiki.tfes.org/Astronomical_Prediction_Based_on_Patterns#The_Eclipses

Offline reer

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Re: Eclipse prediction
« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2024, 03:10:44 AM »
The wiki does not show any research for the last 100 years or so. It only shows the simple and approximate methods used a long time ago. There has been no FE research for the last 100 years?

The old methods usually managed to predict the day of an eclipse; modern (RE based) calculations get it down to the minute. Now we can predict whether it will be a complete, partial or ring eclipse. We can predict its path across the globe, where it will start, and where it will finish. If you don't believe it, use the graph I linked and check it on 8 April.

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Eclipse prediction
« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2024, 05:20:16 AM »
Anyone clicking on that link can see that not all of the sources are old. That Wiki link cites nasa.gov, University of Florida, University College London, and wired.com.

University College London says under the heading "How are eclipses calculated?" that the eclipses are predicted by the Saros Cycle, and that it can be used to predict partial eclipses and the path and location of the eclipse --

https://web.archive.org/web/20080203093833/http://www.ulo.ucl.ac.uk/public/eclipse/ecl_calc.html

Quote
Thus the ancients discovered that, if a solar eclipse occurred on a given day, another eclipse would occur 6585.32 days later when the Moon and Sun again lined up almost exactly, although at a different place along the ecliptic. However, the resulting solar eclipse would be visible about 1/3 of the way around the world and not always visible from the original location, even in its partial phases. But, after three Saros cycles, or 54 years, 1 month, and a couple of days, another solar eclipse would occur at the same approximate range of longitudes on Earth. This time, however, the next eclipse in the 54 year cycle would be some distance further north or further south of the previous track, depending on whether or not the eclipses happen on the descending node (Moon going south as it crosses the ecliptic) or ascending node.

Query looked up some old eclipses in the Saros that contains the 11 August 1999 eclipse. The previous eclipses in this Saros are (going backwards in time, with areas of visibility):

1981 July 31, Pacific Ocean and Asia
1963 July 20, Alaska, Canada, NE United States
1945 July 9, Canada, Scandinavia, Russia
1927 June 29, England, Scandinavia
etc.

So this particular Saros is moving steadily southward with each total solar eclipse; note that the 1945 eclipse was 54 years, one month, 2 days before the 1999 eclipse, at similar longitudes, but about 12-15 degrees further north. Thus we can now predict a solar eclipse to be visible from the Mediterranean, North Africa, and Arabia on 12 September, 2053.

Over a few hundred years, each Saros series involves eclipses starting at in the Arctic or Antarctic, gradually migrating south or north, and eventually ending at the other pole. The direction depends on whether the eclipses are at the ascending or descending node. At any one time, there are around 14 or 15 Saros cycles producing eclipses.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2024, 07:06:29 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Eclipse prediction
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2024, 05:51:15 AM »
Exploratorium.edu suggests that the method to predict the eclipse is with the Saros Cycle --

https://www.exploratorium.edu/eclipse/video/how-predict-eclipses




According to NASA's "Five Millennium Canon of Solar Eclipses" the Saros can predict the Annular Eclipse (ring eclipse) as well.

https://www.cs.ou.edu/~hougen/classes/Fall-2017/DataStructures/materials/Projects/Data/5MCSE-Text11.pdf

p. 40



Other organizations, such as the NOAA, also indicate that they are using the Saros Cycle for eclipse models --

https://sos.noaa.gov/catalog/datasets/solar-eclipse-paths-2010-2030/



"Eclipses are very predictable as they follow a cycle that takes place over 6,585 days. This cycle is known as the Saros cycle. Every 18 years, 11 days, and 8 hours, a similar eclipse path arises as the Sun, Earth, and Moon are relatively in the same geometry, but shifted over 120 degrees in longitude on Earth. Thanks to the cycle, we know that the path the 2023 Annular Eclipse will follow (Saros 134) will repeat on October 25, 2041, just over China and Japan."
« Last Edit: January 26, 2024, 10:43:38 AM by Tom Bishop »