So your overall point is "nothing happens until it does"? Let's say I want to send people to death camps, but I don't want to have a hard time with it, so I want to start trying to disarm people first. What would that look like?
You would have a hard time with it regardless, because sending people to death camps is exactly the kind of outrageous "I am evil!" stunt that actually could spark mass resistance, regardless of whether or not people have guns. But like I said, that won't happen, because a modern authoritarian government has nothing to gain from that kind of mustache-twirling stunt.
You're right. Nothing ever happens. Violence is a thing of the past. Revolutions, riots, rebellions and wars are nonsense of a bygone era.
But, with this argument in mind, why ban guns in the first place? If gun owners are already doomed to never use them (they're too comfortable), then why go through the effort of taking them away? Surely the outcome is the same regardless, so the government's energy is better spent doing quite literally anything else.