[Action80]

Could you at least post the "empirical evidence"?

How's this?
https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/section-232-tariffs-steel-aluminum-2024/

Key Findings

    The Section 232 tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum raised the cost of production for manufacturers, reducing employment in those industries, raising prices for consumers, and hurting exports.

    The jobs “saved” in the steel-producing industries from the tariffs came at a high cost to consumers, at roughly $650,000 per job saved according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    A recent report from the U.S. International Trade Commission found that the tariffs increased the average prices of steel and aluminum by 2.4 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, disproportionately hurting “downstream” industries that use steel and aluminum in their production processes.

"suggest", "estimate," and most importantly, "supply and demand."

Most of what this bullshit artist writes is simply crapola.

Supply and demand is more aptly described as localized criminal enterprise to prop up prices and has nothing to do with tariffs.

[Dr Van Nostrand]

The idea that the Chinese will take a hit to their profitability and just eat those tariffs is ridiculous. Just like American companies, they don't pay taxes, they pass them on to the consumer in the form of price increases. America doesn't have the manufacturing capacity nor technology to build everything that we use domestically and will be forced to pay the tariffs.

Anything not made in America will become more expensive. I wonder if Trump's Swiss-made, $10,000, vaporware, gold watches will be subject to these tariffs?

As a bonus, chasing out all the immigrants will mean that Americans finally have a shot at those highly desirable jobs picking vegetables in the fields and working in the slaughterhouses shoveling pig guts. Of course, you can imagine what it will cost to pay entitled, lazy Americans to do that kind of work.

Trump has never shopped for groceries in his life (except when posing for a photo op) and destroyed 90% of the businesses he's been associated with. He has no clue what he's doing and will make America into the next Trump Taj Mahal Casino.

[Action80]

America does have the infrastructure in place to handle more production here within the country.

It can be done.

Naysayers be damned.

[garygreen]

Could you at least post the "empirical evidence"?

sure thing.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w32082

The trade-war has not to date provided economic help to the US heartland: import tariffs on foreign goods neither raised nor lowered US employment in newly-protected sectors; retaliatory tariffs had clear negative employment impacts, primarily in agriculture

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1478409224000037

We analyze the impacts of the tariffs imposed by the United States in 2018, on the industries they were intended to protect (steel, semiconductors, agricultural equipment, and chemicals industries) as well as on their suppliers and customers[...]The results demonstrate that the implementation of the 2018 tariffs had an overall negative impact on firm value, leading to a decrease in the value of domestic producers within the protected industries and mixed financial effects on firms in their supplier and customer industries.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26610/w26610.pdf

Using data from 2018, a number of studies have found that recent U.S tariffs have been passed on
entirely to U.S. importers and consumers. These results are surprising given that trade theory has
long stressed that tariffs applied by a large country should drive down foreign prices. Using
another year of data including significant escalations in the trade war, we find that U.S. tariffs
continue to be almost entirely borne by U.S. firms and consumers.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w26611

We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 U.S. import tariff increases on U.S. export growth through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we identify firms that eventually faced tariff increases. They accounted for 84% of all exports and represented 65% of manufacturing employment[...]The decline in export growth in 2019Q3, for example, is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on U.S. exports of 2% for the typical product and up to 4% for products with higher than average exposure.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2019086pap.pdf

We find that U.S. manufacturing industries more exposed to tariff
increases experience relative reductions in employment as a positive effect from import
protection is offset by larger negative effects from rising input costs and retaliatory
tariffs.

i could keep going. i have yet to find any economic research that suggests the tariffs have even really benefited the steel industry, let alone the entire economy.

America does have the infrastructure in place to handle more production here within the country.

then why aren't steel tariffs working? we've had steel tariffs on china since 2018. biden did not remove them. the initial capability utilization rate target was 80%. it still has not been reached. "In the week ending on November 23, 2024, domestic raw steel production was 1,655,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 74.5 percent."

tariffs are a fucking stupid way to spur growth and protect jobs. they do not work.

[Lord Dave]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/26/trump-tariffs-prices-harris-poll

Long story short:
Most Republicans know Tarrifs will make things cost more.  But beating the Democrats was more important.  Brand loyalty was more important.  Loyalty to Trump was more important.

[Action80]

Most of the sources are filled with "warnings."

Not as empirical as you want to project.

[garygreen]

i can't find the word "warning" in any of those links, so you'll have to be more specific

[Action80]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1478409224000037
"This has led some to warn..."

[markjo]

The last time Trump tried tariffs on China, he wound up having to bail out American soy bean farmers.

After a series of tariff increases on Chinese imports, the government of China retaliated against U.S. exporters, as predicted by trade analysts outside of the administration. As a result, U.S. exports, particularly of agricultural goods, dropped significantly. “Losing the world’s most populous country as an export market has been a major blow to the [U.S.] agriculture industry,” reported the New York Times in August 2019. “Total American agricultural exports to China were $24 billion in 2014 and fell to $9.1 billion last year, according to the American Farm Bureau.” In 2018, U.S. farmers’ soybean exports to China declined by 75%, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission.

[Lord Dave]

Trumpers do not care.  The Trump Tarrifs could have caused them to lose their job and they would still vote for him.  It's brainwashing.

[AATW]

Could you at least post the "empirical evidence"?

sure thing.

No, silly! He means evidence that confirms what he wants to believe.

[Action80]

Could you at least post the "empirical evidence"?

sure thing.

No, silly! He means evidence that confirms what he wants to believe.

I mean empirical evidence,

Not "warnings," and economists championing further a oligarchal approach.

[Dr Van Nostrand]

Could you at least post the "empirical evidence"?

sure thing.

No, silly! He means evidence that confirms what he wants to believe.

I mean empirical evidence,

Not "warnings," and economists championing further a oligarchal approach.

If you had any experience in the manufacturing sector, if you spent years actually producing goods for the global market, you would have lived your empirical evidence. You would have seen it first hand.

But you, like Trump, never successfully manufactured anything in America and have a child-like understanding of the world around you.

People like you should be listening to people like us. We're the ones that built everything around you.

BTW: Don't embarrass yourself by talking about oligarchies. You elected the Murdoch, RNC, Russia, Musk, Trump oligarchy.

[garygreen]

Most of the sources are filled with "warnings."

you found one sentence in one paper that uses the word "warn." in the introduction. in a descriptive way (i.e., other papers that are not this paper have said x/y/z).

setting aside your hilarious lack of honesty, i don't see what that has anything to do with the empirical conclusions these papers draw from real data.

[Lord Dave]

I don't get why you even NEED emperical evidence. 

Tariffs are literally a way to make a product more expensive.  That's the whole point of their existence.  The ONLY question you need to ask is if increasing the price for that specific good improves the economy of your nation or not.

[Tom Bishop]

Every major country in the world has industries for almost every sector. Mexico and China are specifically being threatened, not the world. If Canada and Mexico can't afford to compete then companies in other countries will take their pie.

The threats worked, since both Mexico and Canada called and groveled to Trump after he made that threat and pledged to work together on his concerns.

[Lord Dave]

Every major country in the world has industries for almost every sector. Mexico and China are specifically being threatened, not the world. If Canada and Mexico can't afford to compete then companies in other countries will take their pie.

The threats worked, since both Mexico and Canada called and groveled to Trump after he made that threat and pledged to work together on his concerns.

So... It's Mexico's fault for not being competitive when Trump forces an increase in price?  How does that work, exactly?


Also, did you not read the article?

[Tom Bishop]

Of course it's Mexico's fault if they suffer higher tariffs if they don't follow the president elect's demands to do more to stop the illegal immigration from multiple countries pouring through the Mexican border.

Mexico will suffer with those tariffs, not the US. There are several dozen industrialized countries with low cost of living and low wages which can provide those goods and take over what market share Mexico had. Prices in the US would be barely affected, so I don't know what you guys are whining about.

[Lord Dave]

Of course it's Mexico's fault if they suffer higher tariffs if they don't follow the president elect's demands to do more to stop the illegal immigration from multiple countries pouring through the Mexican border.

Mexico will suffer with those tariffs, not the US. There are several dozen industrialized countries with low cost of living and low wages which can provide those goods and take over what market share Mexico had. Prices in the US would be barely affected, so I don't know what you guys are whining about.

You... You uhh..don't know anything about scaling, do you?  Or contracts.


Also, the Mexican president appeased Trump by telling him what they've been doing this whole time.  Not 'we will' but 'this is what we are doing'.


Also, why would any country make a new trade agreement?  Trump doesn't even honor his own agreements.

[Rushy]

then why aren't steel tariffs working? we've had steel tariffs on china since 2018. biden did not remove them. the initial capability utilization rate target was 80%. it still has not been reached. "In the week ending on November 23, 2024, domestic raw steel production was 1,655,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 74.5 percent."

tariffs are a fucking stupid way to spur growth and protect jobs. they do not work.

This is an uncharacteristically pro-capitalist take from you, gary. The purpose of tariffs is not to "spur growth". Their purpose is to keep a foreign adversary from killing vital industries in your nation. This is the same reason that the EU has implemented import taxes on a variety of basic goods and just recently extended their import tax on specifically Chinese steel.  To put it bluntly, you seem to entirely misunderstand modern economic policy. Perhaps reading something that explains modern goals (and how we're achieving them) is a more prudent use of your time instead of wallowing around in economic ignorance:

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3055-1.html

Biden and Trump's administration, as well as the EU, don't really differ much in terms of economic decision making with respect to China.