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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #60 on: March 26, 2021, 12:03:50 AM »
EDIT for image from the webpage you quoted;

If you went to NASA's eclipse website then you would know that there are no n-Body equations on there. It says that the Saros cycle repeats itself and that is how they are able to calculate it. It shifts a bit with recurrences, and multiple sets of Saros series are in operation at any given time, but it is nonetheless calculated based on past patterns and events.

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Offline stack

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Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #61 on: March 26, 2021, 12:17:59 AM »
EDIT for image from the webpage you quoted;

If you went to NASA's eclipse website then you would know that there are no n-Body equations on there. It says that the Saros cycle repeats itself and that is how they are able to calculate it. It shifts a bit with recurrences, and multiple sets of Saros series are in operation at any given time, but it is nonetheless calculated based on past patterns and events.

I did go to NASA's eclipse website and apparently you are incorrect on a couple of fronts. Specifically, to gain greater predictive measures of eclipses, they rely on the JPL DE405 ephemeris. JPL DE405 is described as:

"The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE405 solar system ephemeris. This ephemeris consists of computer representations of the positions, velocities and accelerations of major Solar System bodies, tabulated at equally spaced intervals of time, covering the span 1599 Dec 09 to 2201 Feb 20. Beginning in 2003, the Astronomical Almanac has been based on JPL DE405."
https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpath/de405-predictions.html

In regard to the n-body calculations, yes, the JPL DE405 ephemeris relies on them:

"Each ephemeris was produced by numerical integration of the equations of motion, starting from a set of initial conditions. Due to the precision of modern observational data, the analytical method of general perturbations could no longer be applied to a high enough accuracy to adequately reproduce the observations. The method of special perturbations was applied, using numerical integration to solve the n-body problem, in effect putting the entire Solar System into motion in the computer's memory, accounting for all relevant physical laws. The initial conditions were both constants such as planetary masses, from outside sources, and parameters such as initial positions and velocities, adjusted to produce output which was a "best fit" to a large set of observations."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_Propulsion_Laboratory_Development_Ephemeris

And here: DE 102 - A numerically integrated ephemeris of the moon and planets spanning forty-four centuries
http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu//full/1983A%26A...125..150N/0000150.000.html

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #62 on: March 26, 2021, 12:30:49 AM »
EDIT for image from the webpage you quoted;

If you went to NASA's eclipse website then you would know that there are no n-Body equations on there. It says that the Saros cycle repeats itself and that is how they are able to calculate it. It shifts a bit with recurrences, and multiple sets of Saros series are in operation at any given time, but it is nonetheless calculated based on past patterns and events.

I did go to NASA's eclipse website and apparently you are incorrect on a couple of fronts. Specifically, to gain greater predictive measures of eclipses, they rely on the JPL DE405 ephemeris. JPL DE405 is described as:

"The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE405 solar system ephemeris. This ephemeris consists of computer representations of the positions, velocities and accelerations of major Solar System bodies, tabulated at equally spaced intervals of time, covering the span 1599 Dec 09 to 2201 Feb 20. Beginning in 2003, the Astronomical Almanac has been based on JPL DE405."
https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpath/de405-predictions.html

In regard to the n-body calculations, yes, the JPL DE405 ephemeris relies on them:

"Each ephemeris was produced by numerical integration of the equations of motion, starting from a set of initial conditions. Due to the precision of modern observational data, the analytical method of general perturbations could no longer be applied to a high enough accuracy to adequately reproduce the observations. The method of special perturbations was applied, using numerical integration to solve the n-body problem, in effect putting the entire Solar System into motion in the computer's memory, accounting for all relevant physical laws. The initial conditions were both constants such as planetary masses, from outside sources, and parameters such as initial positions and velocities, adjusted to produce output which was a "best fit" to a large set of observations."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_Propulsion_Laboratory_Development_Ephemeris

And here: DE 102 - A numerically integrated ephemeris of the moon and planets spanning forty-four centuries
http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu//full/1983A%26A...125..150N/0000150.000.html

Incorrect. The Saros Cycle predicts the time of the eclipse, not the position of the Sun. To predict the position of the Sun you would have to use some other system. Saros is mentioned 14,400 times on the NASA eclipse website. Obviously they are using the Saros Cycle to predict the eclipse.

Your quote only says that it is being used for retrieving the position of the the Sun, and not for the earth or moon. The system you referenced in your quote for predicting the position of the Sun further says that it is based on numerical solutions, not analytic solutions. Numericical solutions are not solutions based directly on the underlying laws - https://wiki.tfes.org/Numerical_Solutions

Not only is this system not analytical, it is based on epicycles. What you quoted indicated that it is based on perturbations. Perturbations are epicycles - https://wiki.tfes.org/Astronomical_Prediction_Based_on_Patterns

So it's still using the ancient Saros Cycle pattern to predict the eclipse, and this non-analytical system is only used for predicting the position of the Sun. How does this hodge-podge mess help you in any way?
« Last Edit: March 26, 2021, 12:50:04 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #63 on: March 26, 2021, 12:55:27 AM »
Once again, that page (https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpath/de405-predictions.html) does not say that the system used is being used for the eclipse prediction. It's being used for getting the position of the sun.

On the website there is a tool which output sun positions along with the eclipse times:

https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/JSEX/JSEX-NA.html



It's clearly being used to generate the position of the sun at the time of the eclipse, so that you know where to look, and nothing to do with predicting the time of the eclipse. The eclipse is predicted with the Saros Cycle. This is why it is mentioned 14,400 times on the NASA eclipse website.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2021, 12:57:03 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #64 on: March 26, 2021, 12:56:44 AM »
EDIT for image from the webpage you quoted;

If you went to NASA's eclipse website then you would know that there are no n-Body equations on there. It says that the Saros cycle repeats itself and that is how they are able to calculate it. It shifts a bit with recurrences, and multiple sets of Saros series are in operation at any given time, but it is nonetheless calculated based on past patterns and events.

I did go to NASA's eclipse website and apparently you are incorrect on a couple of fronts. Specifically, to gain greater predictive measures of eclipses, they rely on the JPL DE405 ephemeris. JPL DE405 is described as:

"The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE405 solar system ephemeris. This ephemeris consists of computer representations of the positions, velocities and accelerations of major Solar System bodies, tabulated at equally spaced intervals of time, covering the span 1599 Dec 09 to 2201 Feb 20. Beginning in 2003, the Astronomical Almanac has been based on JPL DE405."
https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpath/de405-predictions.html

In regard to the n-body calculations, yes, the JPL DE405 ephemeris relies on them:

"Each ephemeris was produced by numerical integration of the equations of motion, starting from a set of initial conditions. Due to the precision of modern observational data, the analytical method of general perturbations could no longer be applied to a high enough accuracy to adequately reproduce the observations. The method of special perturbations was applied, using numerical integration to solve the n-body problem, in effect putting the entire Solar System into motion in the computer's memory, accounting for all relevant physical laws. The initial conditions were both constants such as planetary masses, from outside sources, and parameters such as initial positions and velocities, adjusted to produce output which was a "best fit" to a large set of observations."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_Propulsion_Laboratory_Development_Ephemeris

And here: DE 102 - A numerically integrated ephemeris of the moon and planets spanning forty-four centuries
http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu//full/1983A%26A...125..150N/0000150.000.html

Incorrect. The Saros Cycle predicts the time of the eclipse, not the position of the Sun. To predict the position of the Sun you would have to use some other system. Saros Cycle is mentioned 14,400 times on the NASA eclipse website. Obviously they are using the Saros Cycle to predict the eclipse.

Your quote only says that it is being used for the sun, and not for the earth or moon. The system you referenced in your quote for predicting the position of the Sun further says that it is based on numerical solutions, not analytic solutions. Numericical solutions are not solutions based directly on the underlying equations - https://wiki.tfes.org/Numerical_Solutions

Not only is this system not analytical, it is based on epicycles. What you quoted indicated that it is based on perturbations. Perturbations are epicycles - https://wiki.tfes.org/Astronomical_Prediction_Based_on_Patterns

So it's still using the ancient Saros Cycle pattern to predict the eclipse, and this non-analytical system is only used for predicting the position of the Sun. How does this hodge-podge mess help you in any way?

Who said the position of the sun alone predicts eclipses? No one.

And wrong again, moon and earth are included.

The construction of the ephemeris: "The physics modeled included the mutual Newtonian gravitational accelerations and their relativistic corrections (a modified form of the Einstein-Infeld-Hoffmann equation), the accelerations caused by the tidal distortion of the Earth, the accelerations caused by the figure of the Earth and Moon, and a model of the lunar librations.[4]
Positions and velocities of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and planets, along with the orientation of the Moon, are stored as Chebyshev polynomial coefficients fit in 32-day-long segments.[8]


And yes, the NASA eclipse site is heavily reliant on the Saros cycles for sure. It goes on to say, "Because the Saros period is not equal to a whole number of days, its biggest drawback is that subsequent eclipses are visible from different parts of the globe. The extra 1/3 day displacement means that Earth must rotate an additional ~8 hours or ~120º with each cycle."

Funny that you use NASA and it's heliocentric based ephemerides, calculations, and predictions as some sort of source for your notions.

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Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #65 on: March 26, 2021, 01:00:31 AM »
Quote
And wrong again, moon and earth are included.

What you quoted only says that it is being used to retrieve the position of the Sun, and does not mention its use for the Earth or Moon. They are likely using it for the javascript tool mentioned above, so that you know where to look during the Solar Eclipse. The page you linked mentioning that JPL DE program even specifies "Solar Eclipse" in that title. The Saros Cycle predicts when the eclipse will recur, not where the Sun will be to see it. If the Saros Cycle was not being used to predict the eclipse there would not be extensive pages describing how to predict the eclipse with it. Obviously there would be no need to use an ancient system based on patterns at all if they were using an alternative modern system.

On another page it clearly states:

https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/SEsaros.html

Quote
The periodicity and recurrence of eclipses is governed by the Saros cycle, a period of approximately 6,585.3 days (18 years 11 days 8 hours). It was known to the Chaldeans as a period when lunar eclipses seem to repeat themselves, but the cycle is applicable to solar eclipses as well.

From another page, the Five Millennium Catalogue of Solar Eclipses:

https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SEcatalog.html

Quote
The recurrence of solar eclipses is governed by the Saros cycle.

They are using the Saros cycle to predict the eclipse, and not this numerical system you are referencing. The website specifies that this numerical system is used to predict the position of the Sun. There is a reason Saros is mentioned thousands of times throughout the website and why there there are extensive Saros charts. The reason is because the Saros Cycle is being used to predict the eclipse.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2021, 01:16:21 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #66 on: March 26, 2021, 01:16:09 AM »
Quote
And wrong again, moon and earth are included.

What you quoted only says that it is being used to retrieve the position of the Sun, and does not mention its use for the Earth or Moon.

Incorrect again:

"Positions and velocities of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and planets, along with the orientation of the Moon, are stored as Chebyshev polynomial coefficients fit in 32-day-long segments."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_Propulsion_Laboratory_Development_Ephemeris

They are likely using it for the javascript tool mentioned above, so that you know where to look during the eclipse. The Saros Cycle predicts when the eclipse will recur, not where the Sun will be to see it. If the Saros Cycle was not being used to predict the eclipse there would not be extensive pages describing how to predict the eclipse with it. Obviously there would be no need to use an ancient system based on patterns at all if they were using an alternative modern system.

Who said they are using an "alternative"? No one.

They use the ephemeris and many other tools and measurements and calculations to get as detailed as possible about eclipses. Not just the when, but the exact where, even what the prediction of the corona will look like at a given location.

On another page it clearly states:

https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/SEsaros.html

Quote
The periodicity and recurrence of eclipses is governed by the Saros cycle, a period of approximately 6,585.3 days (18 years 11 days 8 hours). It was known to the Chaldeans as a period when lunar eclipses seem to repeat themselves, but the cycle is applicable to solar eclipses as well.

From another page, the FIVE MILLENNIUM CATALOG OF SOLAR ECLIPSES

https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SEcatalog.html

Quote
The recurrence of solar eclipses is governed by the Saros cycle.


They are using the Saros cycle to predict the eclipse, and not this system you are referencing. The website specifies that is used to predict the position of the Sun. There is a reason Saros is mentioned 14,400 times throughout the website and why there there are extensive Saros charts. The reason is because it is being used to predict the eclipse.

Yes, and it goes on to say regarding the FIVE MILLENNIUM CATALOG OF SOLAR ECLIPSES you reference:

"The Moon's coordinates are based on the ELP-2000/82 theory [Chapront-Touze and Chapront, 1983]. For more information, see: Solar and Lunar Ephemerides. The revised value used for the Moon's secular acceleration is n-dot = -25.858 arc-sec/cy*cy, as deduced from the Apollo lunar laser ranging experiment (Chapront, Chapront-Touze, and Francou, 2002)."
https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpubs/5MKSE.html

Go figure, your own source even references the Moon landing. Hilarious.

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Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #67 on: March 26, 2021, 01:35:35 AM »
Quote
And wrong again, moon and earth are included.

What you quoted only says that it is being used to retrieve the position of the Sun, and does not mention its use for the Earth or Moon.

Incorrect again:

"Positions and velocities of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and planets, along with the orientation of the Moon, are stored as Chebyshev polynomial coefficients fit in 32-day-long segments."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_Propulsion_Laboratory_Development_Ephemeris

We can see that you have once again resorted to duplicity. That's a Wikipedia page about the numerical tool. That is not the NASA Eclipse Page. The NASA Eclipse page says that they are using this tool to retrieve the position of the Sun for the Solar Eclipse calculations. It does not say Earth or Moon.

https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpath/de405-predictions.html

Quote
SOLAR ECLIPSE PREDICTIONS WITH JPL DE405

The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE405 solar system

Does this page say that the system is being used to predict anything with the Earth or Moon? No.

It is obvious why they would need the position of the Sun, because the Saros Cycle alone only predicts the time of the recurrence of the eclipse, not where the Sun will be at that time.

Quote
Yes, and it goes on to say regarding the FIVE MILLENNIUM CATALOG OF SOLAR ECLIPSES you reference:

"The Moon's coordinates are based on the ELP-2000/82 theory [Chapront-Touze and Chapront, 1983]. For more information, see: Solar and Lunar Ephemerides. The revised value used for the Moon's secular acceleration is n-dot = -25.858 arc-sec/cy*cy, as deduced from the Apollo lunar laser ranging experiment (Chapront, Chapront-Touze, and Francou, 2002)."
https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpubs/5MKSE.html

And the word Ephemerides give it away.  Ephemerides the position of a celestial body in the Sky. Obviously your assertion that the JPL DE System is predicting the eclipse is incorrect if they have to use multiple types of numerical systems to for the Ephemerides of different bodies, along with the Saros Cycle, to present the data on the website.

You have not shown that the systems are actually based on the underlying laws, and nor have you explained why they would need to use the Saros Cycle if you think that such a system exists.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2021, 01:49:11 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #68 on: March 26, 2021, 02:01:41 AM »
You have not shown that the systems are actually based on the underlying laws, and nor have you explained why they would need to use the Saros Cycle if you think that such a system exists.

Yes, actually I have. You're just skipping over the references. It's a combination of predictive tactics/sources, Saros included. From your NASA eclipse site:

"Modern digital computers using high precision solar and lunar ephemerides can directly predict the dates and circumstances of eclipses. Nevertheless, the Saros and Inex cycles remain useful tools in understanding the periodicity and frequency of eclipses."
https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/SEperiodicity.html

They mix the various heliocentric ephemerides with the Saros to gain a complete picture of an eclipse, all of which culminate in the when, and exact where, as mentioned through the NASA eclipse site..

And I still find it hilarious that the Apollo moon reflectors are cited in part of the ephemerides used for a complete picture of an eclipse. A source you cite. When did you become a NASA believer?

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Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #69 on: March 26, 2021, 02:14:35 AM »
Yes, actually I have. You're just skipping over the references. It's a combination of predictive tactics/sources, Saros included. From your NASA eclipse site:

"Modern digital computers using high precision solar and lunar ephemerides can directly predict the dates and circumstances of eclipses. Nevertheless, the Saros and Inex cycles remain useful tools in understanding the periodicity and frequency of eclipses."
https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/SEperiodicity.html

They mix the various heliocentric ephemerides with the Saros to gain a complete picture of an eclipse, all of which culminate in the when, and exact where, as mentioned through the NASA eclipse site..

Incorrect. That quote says that solar and lunar ephemerides systems can also predict when they align in the sky. It says nothing about the nature of those systems, however. Ptolmy's Almagest system was an ephemerides computational system from the year 2 A.D. which had nothing to do with gravity or the underlying laws of the system.

After that brief mention, it doesn't mention that ephemerides method again, and continues to talk about the Saros method, mentioning it hundreds of times.

The ephemerides tools you have brought up references numerical perturbations. You have failed to show that any of this is based on the underlying laws. Merely pointing at the names of systems and assuming things is a terrible way to show anything.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2021, 02:19:47 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #70 on: March 26, 2021, 02:30:49 AM »
Quote
And wrong again, moon and earth are included.

What you quoted only says that it is being used to retrieve the position of the Sun, and does not mention its use for the Earth or Moon.

Incorrect again:

"Positions and velocities of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and planets, along with the orientation of the Moon, are stored as Chebyshev polynomial coefficients fit in 32-day-long segments."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_Propulsion_Laboratory_Development_Ephemeris

We can see that you have once again resorted to duplicity. That's a Wikipedia page about the numerical tool. That is not the NASA Eclipse Page. The NASA Eclipse page says that they are using this tool to retrieve the position of the Sun for the Solar Eclipse calculations. It does not say Earth or Moon.

https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpath/de405-predictions.html

Quote
SOLAR ECLIPSE PREDICTIONS WITH JPL DE405

The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE405 solar system

Does this page say that the system is being used to predict anything with the Earth or Moon? No.

It is obvious why they would need the position of the Sun, because the Saros Cycle alone only predicts the time of the recurrence of the eclipse, not where the Sun will be at that time.

Quote
Yes, and it goes on to say regarding the FIVE MILLENNIUM CATALOG OF SOLAR ECLIPSES you reference:

"The Moon's coordinates are based on the ELP-2000/82 theory [Chapront-Touze and Chapront, 1983]. For more information, see: Solar and Lunar Ephemerides. The revised value used for the Moon's secular acceleration is n-dot = -25.858 arc-sec/cy*cy, as deduced from the Apollo lunar laser ranging experiment (Chapront, Chapront-Touze, and Francou, 2002)."
https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpubs/5MKSE.html

And the word Ephemerides give it away.  Ephemerides the position of a celestial body in the Sky. Obviously your assertion that the JPL DE System is predicting the eclipse is incorrect if they have to use multiple types of numerical systems to for the Ephemerides of different bodies, along with the Saros Cycle, to present the data on the website.

You have not shown that the systems are actually based on the underlying laws, and nor have you explained why they would need to use the Saros Cycle if you think that such a system exists.

The first sentence in your link says "The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE405 solar system", well, here are the parameters used as part of the calculation in question:

https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi#results



Obviously the above parameters are heretical to Flat Earth. How can the Earth have an Equatorial Radius of 6378.137 KM, or a Heliocentric orbital speed of 29.79 km/s?

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Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #71 on: March 26, 2021, 02:49:06 AM »
Quote
And wrong again, moon and earth are included.

What you quoted only says that it is being used to retrieve the position of the Sun, and does not mention its use for the Earth or Moon.

Incorrect again:

"Positions and velocities of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and planets, along with the orientation of the Moon, are stored as Chebyshev polynomial coefficients fit in 32-day-long segments."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_Propulsion_Laboratory_Development_Ephemeris

We can see that you have once again resorted to duplicity. That's a Wikipedia page about the numerical tool. That is not the NASA Eclipse Page. The NASA Eclipse page says that they are using this tool to retrieve the position of the Sun for the Solar Eclipse calculations. It does not say Earth or Moon.

https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpath/de405-predictions.html

Quote
SOLAR ECLIPSE PREDICTIONS WITH JPL DE405

The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE405 solar system

Does this page say that the system is being used to predict anything with the Earth or Moon? No.

It is obvious why they would need the position of the Sun, because the Saros Cycle alone only predicts the time of the recurrence of the eclipse, not where the Sun will be at that time.

Quote
Yes, and it goes on to say regarding the FIVE MILLENNIUM CATALOG OF SOLAR ECLIPSES you reference:

"The Moon's coordinates are based on the ELP-2000/82 theory [Chapront-Touze and Chapront, 1983]. For more information, see: Solar and Lunar Ephemerides. The revised value used for the Moon's secular acceleration is n-dot = -25.858 arc-sec/cy*cy, as deduced from the Apollo lunar laser ranging experiment (Chapront, Chapront-Touze, and Francou, 2002)."
https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEpubs/5MKSE.html

And the word Ephemerides give it away.  Ephemerides the position of a celestial body in the Sky. Obviously your assertion that the JPL DE System is predicting the eclipse is incorrect if they have to use multiple types of numerical systems to for the Ephemerides of different bodies, along with the Saros Cycle, to present the data on the website.

You have not shown that the systems are actually based on the underlying laws, and nor have you explained why they would need to use the Saros Cycle if you think that such a system exists.

The first sentence in your link says "The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE405 solar system", well, here are the parameters used as part of the calculation in question:

https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi#results



Obviously the above parameters are heretical to Flat Earth. How can the Earth have an Equatorial Radius of 6378.137 KM, or a Heliocentric orbital speed of 29.79 km/s?

That's an different program called JPL Horizons. JPL DE and JPL Horizons are different.

And I just see you showing that it can list some geophysical properties for RE Theory from its database. But this is different than showing that it uses those properties to create a dynamic working model of the solar system using Newton's laws.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2021, 02:58:15 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #72 on: March 26, 2021, 03:02:09 AM »
It says right here that the properties you listed are not necessarily used or relevant, is for general informational purposes only, and is just text from other sources.

https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/?horizons_doc#intro

Quote
Major Body Physical Parameters:

  The bulk-property parameters or constants shown as "object data" when
  a planet or natural satellite is selected are not necessarily used in
  or even relevant to Horizons ephemeris calculations.

  They are displayed for general informational purposes only, to confirm
  the selected object, and are from a variety of sources but primarily
  collected from the scientific literature and summarized in the following:

    Yoder, C. "Astrometric and Geometric Properties of Earth and the Solar
    System", published in "Global Earth Physics: A Handbook of Physical
    Constants", AGU Reference Shelf 1, 1995, with some updates and
    corrections.

    Clawson, J.F., et al., "Spacecraft Thermal Environments", Chapter 2
    in "Spacecraft Thermal Control Handbook, Volume I: Fundamental
    Technologies", ed. D. Gilmore, 2002.

    NSSDCA Planetary Fact Sheets (August 2018),
      https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/planetfact.html
« Last Edit: March 26, 2021, 03:20:27 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #73 on: March 26, 2021, 03:11:09 AM »
Merely pointing at the names of systems and assuming things is a terrible way to show anything.

If that's not ironic - Not only pointing at, but counting as well:

Saros is mentioned 14,400 times on the NASA eclipse website. Obviously they are using the Saros Cycle to predict the eclipse.

You can jump up and down all you want about Saros. But it's plain to see from the site you constantly reference that NASA uses Saros along with other heliocentric programs and calculations to predict/complete a holistic view of an eclipse event. It's been documented and presented.

How about we try this: Can you use just Saros to predict the exact when, where path (down to the single km level), duration of totality at the 'where', the shape and size of the corona where and when, on a flat earth? I'll await your predictive prognostication.

SteelyBob

Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #74 on: March 26, 2021, 10:19:51 AM »
Numericical solutions are not solutions based directly on the underlying laws - https://wiki.tfes.org/Numerical_Solutions

Tom, again, this is demonstrably utter nonsense. Stepping back from the particular problem at hand, and just speaking generally, numerical methods are a broad class of computational technique. To categorise all of them as not being based on their underlying laws is false. There are numerous problems in physics and engineering (for example) where system dynamics are governed by time-based differential equations that simply cannot be solved algebraically. This fact does not invalidate the principles in question. Moreover, even if they could be solved by simple algebra, it's also important to realise that in many cases, planetary motion included, the resulting output would still have some degree of error due to the modelling assumptions made (eg point masses versus spheres, neglecting some objects as being too small to be significant) and small errors in starting conditions (mass estimation, velocity, position data etc). So to characterise numerical solutions as 'wrong' and algebraic solutions as 'correct' is in itself a flawed logic. In aerodynamics, for example, algebraic solutions of gas flow past solid bodies are usually quite poor, as the simplifications required to reduce the equations to something solvable involve removing important real-world effects such as viscosity and turbulence.

Your repeated assertion that numerical methods aren't based on the underlying laws is frankly absurd. Whilst there may well be examples of this, it is certainly not a valid statement for the totality of numerical methods. Computational fluid dynamics algorithms, for example, are absolutely based on the behaviours of gases and the equations that govern them. Numerical methods for solving flow past complex shapes typically involve breaking the flow field down into discrete elements, akin to pixels, and solving each tiny element's input and output flows in turn, with the whole system advanced in small discrete time-steps. This does of course introduce error, but the smaller the elements and the smaller the time-steps, the less error there is, and the closer to the truth we get. I mention aerodynamics simply because it's a field I'm trained in, but you can find examples of this kind of solution used in all manner of science, ranging from particle physics through to astronomy.

I've very much enjoyed reading around the JPL ephemeris models - not something I'd encountered before. It's abundantly obvious from reading into them that they are absolutely based on the underlying physics. The simpler models were essentially time-stepped newtonian solutions for point masses, whereas the more recent models exploit greater computational power and include all kinds of sophistications to better approximate planet shapes and internal composition, correct for relativistic effects, include small bodies such as asteroids etc...it's impressive science.

Your assertion that NASA's inclusions of Saros cycles is somehow indicative of failings or sleight of hand in their modelling is equally absurd. Yes, solar and lunar eclipses adhere to the Saros cycles - that's well understood. But Saros models are not completely accurate in terms of accurately geo-locating eclipse shadows, and it is clear that the various ephemeris models are now considerably more accurate in terms of predictive power.

You have not shown that the systems are actually based on the underlying laws

Ok then, let's go.

Here's the description of DE 102, one of the early and simpler models, taken from https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2F978-94-009-7214-8_6.pdf:

Quote
A. Initial Conditions
The starting epoch of the integration was June 28, 1969 (JD 2440400.5), the ephemeris being integrated both forward and backward from this date. The initial conditions were the best available at that time and represented a least squares adjustment to a variety of observational data types. These included: 1) Lunar-laser ranging; 2) Mariner 9 and Viking Orbiter spacecraft ranging; 3) radar-ranging to Mercury, Venus, and Mars; and 4) Meridian circle optical data. These are described in detail in the paper cited above.
B. Equations of Motion
The equations of motion used in the integration included: 1) the n- body forces of the sun, moon, and the nine major planets; 2) the lunar librations; 3) isotropic, PPN-relativistic formulation; and 4) the perturbations from five asteroids. Though a number of the inherent constants have subsequently been modified, it is of importance to mention that the form of the equations of motion in DEl02/LE5l has not been changed in any o·f the more recent ephemerides produced at JPL.

Presumably, as a flat-earther, the lunar laser ranging and radar ranging of various planets is problematic for you? Likewise Mariner 9 and Voyager 9 data is equally conspiratorial?

I'm still waiting for that evidence, by the way. Maybe you could provide it in the same post that includes your eclipse predictive prognostication.

Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #75 on: March 26, 2021, 08:38:52 PM »
Just read through this whole thing - understood maybe half of it? - (those who remember me from when I first joined and was active a year ago perhaps recall I suck at math  ;D ).

But the thread virtually immediately deviated (as soon as Tom commented  ::)  ) from what observations about the world does RET not explain to whether we can solve the three body problem...

Here's my question (asking in sincerity, since I suck at math, recall), in an attempt to bring it back to the OP and an actual response from the FET crowd:

Does the fact that our maths cannot numerically(?) solve the three body problem* count as an "observation" that RET fails to explain? 

I don't think so.

Tom's response and the entire rabbit hole of this thread regarding numerical/analytic methods is a category error in some sense.

RET does explain the observation that there are orbiting bodies - planets, moons, etc. - in our solar system. And it explains it with comprehensive consistency with other elements of RET and accepted science.

So there's yet to be an observed phenomenon suggested in this thread that actually answers the OP. 

*Hope I didn't butcher that formulation  :(


Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #76 on: March 26, 2021, 10:55:03 PM »
Just read through this whole thing - understood maybe half of it? - (those who remember me from when I first joined and was active a year ago perhaps recall I suck at math  ;D ).

But the thread virtually immediately deviated (as soon as Tom commented  ::)  ) from what observations about the world does RET not explain to whether we can solve the three body problem...

Here's my question (asking in sincerity, since I suck at math, recall), in an attempt to bring it back to the OP and an actual response from the FET crowd:

Does the fact that our maths cannot numerically(?) solve the three body problem* count as an "observation" that RET fails to explain? 

I don't think so.

Tom's response and the entire rabbit hole of this thread regarding numerical/analytic methods is a category error in some sense.

RET does explain the observation that there are orbiting bodies - planets, moons, etc. - in our solar system. And it explains it with comprehensive consistency with other elements of RET and accepted science.

So there's yet to be an observed phenomenon suggested in this thread that actually answers the OP. 

*Hope I didn't butcher that formulation  :(

Yup. And we're still waiting for Tom to follow up on his "There are many problems with RE" statement.
Devout and strictly adherent Atheist.

Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #77 on: March 27, 2021, 01:14:25 AM »
Saying the inability to mathematically solve the N-body problem is proof that RET is incorrect is the same as saying that weather doesn't exist because humans have yet to invent a 100% accurate way to model it.

What's that? Oh, the Shobijin are calling.  I must leave now.

SteelyBob

Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #78 on: March 27, 2021, 01:09:45 PM »
Saying the inability to mathematically solve the N-body problem is proof that RET is incorrect is the same as saying that weather doesn't exist because humans have yet to invent a 100% accurate way to model it.

What's that? Oh, the Shobijin are calling.  I must leave now.

Oh dear! You’ve gone there. Wait until we lift the lid on numerical weather prediction and discover the modelling of the earth’s rotation...

*

Offline Tom Bishop

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Re: Is there anything that RET cannot explain?
« Reply #79 on: March 27, 2021, 02:05:29 PM »
The ability to predict something doesn't mean that you predicted it based on the underlying laws. I can predict that my town is going to be hot in the summer and cold in the winter, and I can do that regardless of what model or physical laws actually exist to make that happen. You are mistaking prediction accuracy for full understanding and simulation of the underlying laws

Numerical models are merely approximations, and there are numerous references for this.