The Flat Earth Society

Flat Earth Discussion Boards => Flat Earth Theory => Topic started by: spherical on May 14, 2019, 05:48:11 PM

Title: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: spherical on May 14, 2019, 05:48:11 PM
Can any FEr demonstrate how the Total Solar Eclipse of July 2nd 2019 is predicted under FE map and conditions?
How the FE Moon comes under the FE Sun on that particular path?

(http://www.guidetrack.com/FE/july02totaleclipse.jpg)
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Science Supporter on May 14, 2019, 10:55:20 PM
Can any FEr demonstrate how the Total Solar Eclipse of July 2nd 2019 is predicted under FE map and conditions?
How the FE Moon comes under the FE Sun on that particular path?

(http://www.guidetrack.com/FE/july02totaleclipse.jpg)
Hmm... and why is the path of totality curved? Seems odd.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tom Bishop on May 15, 2019, 12:08:45 AM
See these two links:

https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

https://wiki.tfes.org/Astronomical_Prediction_Based_on_Patterns#The_Eclipses
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Bad Puppy on May 15, 2019, 12:24:24 AM
See these two links:

https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

https://wiki.tfes.org/Astronomical_Prediction_Based_on_Patterns#The_Eclipses

The path is not a perfect arc because as the earth rotates on its axis it is also moving around the sun.  There are two motions at play, so the globe paths for a solar eclipse is perfectly normal.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: markjo on May 15, 2019, 12:43:01 AM
See these two links:

https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

https://wiki.tfes.org/Astronomical_Prediction_Based_on_Patterns#The_Eclipses
Tom, would you care to point out in either of those links how the path of totality of a solar eclipse can be predicted by Saros alone?
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tom Bishop on May 15, 2019, 01:05:23 AM
See these two links:

https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

https://wiki.tfes.org/Astronomical_Prediction_Based_on_Patterns#The_Eclipses
Tom, would you care to point out in either of those links how the path of totality of a solar eclipse can be predicted by Saros alone?

http://www.gutenberg.org/files/34834/34834-h/34834-h.htm

Quote
72. Recurrence of eclipses.—Before the beginning of the Christian era astronomers had found out a rough-and-ready method of predicting eclipses, which is still of interest and value. The substance of the method is that if we start with any eclipse whatever—e. g., the eclipse of May 28, 1900—and reckon forward or backward from that date a period of 18 years and 10 or 11 days, we shall find another eclipse quite similar in its general characteristics to the one with which we started. Thus, from the map of eclipses (Fig. 36), we find that a total solar eclipse will occur on June 8, 1918, 18 years and 11 days after the one illustrated in Fig. 35. This period of 18 years and 11 days is called saros, an ancient word which means cycle or repetition, and since[Pg 116] every eclipse is repeated after the lapse of a saros, we may find the dates of all the eclipses of 1918 by adding 11 days to the dates given in the table of eclipses for 1900 (§ 67), and it is to be especially noted that each eclipse of 1918 will be like its predecessor of 1900 in character—lunar, solar, partial, total, etc. The eclipses of any year may be predicted by a similar reference to those which occurred eighteen years earlier. Consult a file of old almanacs.

Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: markjo on May 15, 2019, 01:50:08 AM
That doesn't really answer my question. 

First of all, the Saros cycle is closer to 8 years, 11 days, 8 hours.  That extra 8 hours means that same eclipse in the next cycle will be about 120 degrees of longitude away from the previous one.

Secondly, I'll concede that Saros is pretty good at telling you when an eclipse will occur, but I asked where it would occur (path of totality).  How do you suppose that the path of totality for a baseline solar eclipse could be determined by observation alone, especially considering that large parts of such paths are often over open ocean?

(https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/image/Fig1b.GIF)
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tom Bishop on May 15, 2019, 01:56:55 AM
It also says that partial eclipses can be predicted via Saros, which can be seen over a very great area. People don't need to be in the middle of the ocean to know where the totality will be at.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Science Supporter on May 15, 2019, 02:02:33 AM
See these two links:

https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

https://wiki.tfes.org/Astronomical_Prediction_Based_on_Patterns#The_Eclipses
I read both links. How is it possible for the path of totality to be in the shape of a hill instead of a regular arc on the flat earth? This can be explained on the globe earth.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: markjo on May 15, 2019, 02:35:15 AM
It also says that partial eclipses can be predicted via Saros, which can be seen over a very great area.
Again, that isn't what I asked.  But since you mention it, can Saros alone predict what percentage of the sun will be eclipsed at a given location?

People don't need to be in the middle of the ocean to know where the totality will be at.
It looks like you did for the June 1937 eclipse for which almost the entire path of totality was over the Pacific Ocean.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: stack on May 15, 2019, 03:57:44 AM
It also says that partial eclipses can be predicted via Saros, which can be seen over a very great area. People don't need to be in the middle of the ocean to know where the totality will be at.

Neither of the wiki entries address the "where" down to the meter that modern astronomical calculations can. Until such time that they can, they are moot.

If you are confident in a contrary position, use the Saros cycles and your wiki to show us where exactly totality will occur on a flat earth for 7/2/19.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tom Bishop on May 15, 2019, 05:04:37 AM
If you guys want to know how prediction of the eclipses work, open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic. That's how it is predicted. It's all there. If you are curious about the details, look into it. It has nothing to do with the Wiki.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: stack on May 15, 2019, 05:39:21 AM
If you guys want to know how prediction of the eclipses work, open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic. That's how it's predicted. It's all there. If you are curious about the details, look into it. It has nothing to do with the Wiki.

Good, we agree, eclipse prediction has nothing to do with the wiki.

But why then did you cite the wiki up above in your initial comment to this thread:

See these two links:

https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

https://wiki.tfes.org/Astronomical_Prediction_Based_on_Patterns#The_Eclipses

However, the OP is: "Can any FEr demonstrate how the Total Solar Eclipse of July 2nd 2019 is predicted under FE map and conditions?
How the FE Moon comes under the FE Sun on that particular path?"

Seemingly the wiki and FE cannot demonstrate how the Total Solar Eclipse of July 2nd 2019 is predicted specifically under FE map and conditions. So I guess that's that.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: markjo on May 15, 2019, 01:37:03 PM
If you guys want to know how prediction of the eclipses work, open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic. That's how it's predicted. It's all there.
Umm...  All the astronomy text books are written from an RE perspective.  How does that help explain FE eclipse predictions?

If you are curious about the details, look into it.
I am looking into it.  I'm consulting one of the preeminent FE researchers of modern times, but he doesn't seem to be much help.

It has nothing to do with the Wiki.
???  What's the point of having an FE wiki page about eclipses if not to explain how eclipses work on a flat earth?
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: 9 out of 10 doctors agree on May 15, 2019, 05:13:52 PM
If you guys want to know how prediction of the eclipses work, open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic. That's how it's predicted. It's all there. If you are curious about the details, look into it. It has nothing to do with the Wiki.
Here: http://eclipsewise.com/help/de405-predictions.html (http://eclipsewise.com/help/de405-predictions.html)
Quote
The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE405 solar system ephemeris. This ephemeris consists of computer representations of the positions, velocities and accelerations of major Solar System bodies, tabulated at equally spaced intervals of time, covering the span 1599 Dec 09 to 2201 Feb 20. Beginning in 2003, the JPL DE405 has been the basis of the Astronomical Almanac. See Jet Propulsion Laboratory Developmental Ephemeris for more information of the JPL ephemerides.
So not using the Saros cycle like you say it is.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Bad Puppy on May 15, 2019, 08:00:45 PM
If you guys want to know how prediction of the eclipses work, open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic. That's how it is predicted. It's all there. If you are curious about the details, look into it. It has nothing to do with the Wiki.

Are you thinking of any specific textbooks, or are you willing to accept that ANY astronomy textbook will be correct?
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tom Bishop on May 15, 2019, 10:55:04 PM
Seemingly the wiki and FE cannot demonstrate how the Total Solar Eclipse of July 2nd 2019 is predicted specifically under FE map and conditions. So I guess that's that.

Austrian astronomer Theodor von Oppolzer worked it out using a FE map and the Saros Cycle. See: https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

The paths make perfect arcs, unlike the Round Earth model.

If you guys want to know how prediction of the eclipses work, open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic. That's how it's predicted. It's all there. If you are curious about the details, look into it. It has nothing to do with the Wiki.
Here: http://eclipsewise.com/help/de405-predictions.html (http://eclipsewise.com/help/de405-predictions.html)
Quote
The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE405 solar system ephemeris. This ephemeris consists of computer representations of the positions, velocities and accelerations of major Solar System bodies, tabulated at equally spaced intervals of time, covering the span 1599 Dec 09 to 2201 Feb 20. Beginning in 2003, the JPL DE405 has been the basis of the Astronomical Almanac. See Jet Propulsion Laboratory Developmental Ephemeris for more information of the JPL ephemerides.
So not using the Saros cycle like you say it is.

It says that the model was only used to get the position of the sun, not to predict the eclipse.

Do some searching and you will find that JPL DE405 is based on perturbation prediction.

Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Science Supporter on May 16, 2019, 12:01:12 AM
Austrian astronomer Theodor von Oppolzer worked it out using a FE map and the Saros Cycle. See: https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

The paths make perfect arcs, unlike the Round Earth model.
The 2017 total solar eclipse is not a perfect arc. And most eclipses you look at aren't perfect arcs either. Look at future eclipses around the poles (well... North Pole) and you'll notice that it they aren't perfect arcs. The future eclipse spherical showed wasn't a perfect arc either. It was in the shape of a hill.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tom Bishop on May 16, 2019, 12:08:56 AM
Austrian astronomer Theodor von Oppolzer worked it out using a FE map and the Saros Cycle. See: https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

The paths make perfect arcs, unlike the Round Earth model.
The 2017 total solar eclipse is not a perfect arc. And most eclipses you look at aren't perfect arcs either. Look at future eclipses around the poles (well... North Pole) and you'll notice that it they aren't perfect arcs. The future eclipse spherical showed wasn't a perfect arc either. It was in the shape of a hill.

What are you talking about? On Flat Earth maps the paths are perfect arcs. They are distorted on other types of maps because they are not correct.

Here is Oppolzer's map for 2010-2028. The 2017 eclipse is a perfect arc on this map.

(http://static1.squarespace.com/static/53c358b6e4b01b8adb4d5870/t/53e68aaae4b0fda5c3dcafa7/1407617723831/CanonDerFinsternisse_Oppolzer_blatt154_2008_2030.jpg?format=1500w)
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Bad Puppy on May 16, 2019, 12:23:39 AM
Austrian astronomer Theodor von Oppolzer worked it out using a FE map and the Saros Cycle. See: https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

The paths make perfect arcs, unlike the Round Earth model.
The 2017 total solar eclipse is not a perfect arc. And most eclipses you look at aren't perfect arcs either. Look at future eclipses around the poles (well... North Pole) and you'll notice that it they aren't perfect arcs. The future eclipse spherical showed wasn't a perfect arc either. It was in the shape of a hill.

What are you talking about? On Flat Earth maps the paths are perfect arcs. They are distorted on other types of maps because they are not correct.

(http://static1.squarespace.com/static/53c358b6e4b01b8adb4d5870/t/53e68aaae4b0fda5c3dcafa7/1407617723831/CanonDerFinsternisse_Oppolzer_blatt154_2008_2030.jpg?format=1500w)

No, Tom.  On a globe Earth the paths are not perfect arcs because there are two independent movements involved: the Earth's rotation on its axis, and the moon's orbit around the Earth.  The combination of those two motions produce the hill-shaped shadow path of the eclipse.  Open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tom Bishop on May 16, 2019, 12:36:34 AM
No, Tom.  On a globe Earth the paths are not perfect arcs because there are two independent movements involved: the Earth's rotation on its axis, and the moon's orbit around the Earth.

Both of those movements are constant, not erratic.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Bad Puppy on May 16, 2019, 12:39:36 AM
No, Tom.  On a globe Earth the paths are not perfect arcs because there are two independent movements involved: the Earth's rotation on its axis, and the moon's orbit around the Earth.

Both of those movements are constant, not erratic.

....and produce a path like a hill.

Here's a link to a nice hill-type eclipse path with an animation in the middle of the page.  See "3D Eclipse Animation"

https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/solar/2017-august-21 (https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/solar/2017-august-21)

Sorry Tom.  You're wrong.  I know you'll never admit it despite the evidence presented, but it's there.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tom Bishop on May 16, 2019, 12:42:26 AM
....and produce a path like a hill.

Based on your evidence of absolutely nothing?

Quote
Here's a link to a nice hill-type eclipse path with an animation in the middle of the page.  See "3D Eclipse Animation"

https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/solar/2017-august-21 (https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/solar/2017-august-21)

That's not a geometric model of the Sun-Earth-Moon system.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Bad Puppy on May 16, 2019, 12:58:49 AM
....and produce a path like a hill.

Based on your evidence of absolutely nothing?

Quote
Here's a link to a nice hill-type eclipse path with an animation in the middle of the page.  See "3D Eclipse Animation"

https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/solar/2017-august-21 (https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/solar/2017-august-21)

That's not a geometric model of the Sun-Earth-Moon system.

Considering that I believe the Earth is a globe, that website which I linked contains accurate paths of past eclipses, and paths of future eclipses.  I've witnessed a number of eclipses which have crossed my path in the past and have matched to the minute the times and locations stated on the site.  That is evidence.

As to the 3D animation, I'm glad you can see the obvious.  It's not a geometric model of the Sun-Earth-Moon system.  It's an animation of the Earth, and the path the eclipse takes.  And look, it's a wavy line.  It's okay, Tom.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Science Supporter on May 16, 2019, 01:14:17 AM
Austrian astronomer Theodor von Oppolzer worked it out using a FE map and the Saros Cycle. See: https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

The paths make perfect arcs, unlike the Round Earth model.
The 2017 total solar eclipse is not a perfect arc. And most eclipses you look at aren't perfect arcs either. Look at future eclipses around the poles (well... North Pole) and you'll notice that it they aren't perfect arcs. The future eclipse spherical showed wasn't a perfect arc either. It was in the shape of a hill.

What are you talking about? On Flat Earth maps the paths are perfect arcs. They are distorted on other types of maps because they are not correct.

Here is Oppolzer's map for 2010-2028. The 2017 eclipse is a perfect arc on this map.

(http://static1.squarespace.com/static/53c358b6e4b01b8adb4d5870/t/53e68aaae4b0fda5c3dcafa7/1407617723831/CanonDerFinsternisse_Oppolzer_blatt154_2008_2030.jpg?format=1500w)
I was talking about the globe model.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: stack on May 16, 2019, 05:04:11 AM
Seemingly the wiki and FE cannot demonstrate how the Total Solar Eclipse of July 2nd 2019 is predicted specifically under FE map and conditions. So I guess that's that.

Austrian astronomer Theodor von Oppolzer worked it out using a FE map and the Saros Cycle. See: https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

The paths make perfect arcs, unlike the Round Earth model.

Are you that desperate to disingenuously claim that Theodor von Oppolzer worked it out using an FE map?

What about the other hemisphere of the FE Map he worked out? It's called a globe.

(https://i.imgur.com/AUw8pMU.jpg?1)
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tumeni on May 16, 2019, 07:24:52 AM
That's not a geometric model of the Sun-Earth-Moon system.

Define what a geometric model would be in this case, then.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tumeni on May 16, 2019, 07:35:40 AM
OK, so does the path shown on the Oppolzer map (centred on the North Pole) correspond to the path shown when centred on the point of maximum eclipse?

http://eclipsewise.com/oh/oh-figures/ec2017-Fig04.pdf (http://eclipsewise.com/oh/oh-figures/ec2017-Fig04.pdf)

Discuss.

Surely, if I walk in a circle on level ground, my path will look different depending on whether you look at it from above, or from on the ground, to the side of it ....

And, to go back to the first page, it's not a perfect arc when viewed from above the point of max, because the Moon's trajectory is not aligned perfectly with Earth's orbital path, and the rotation of the Earth is not aligned perfectly with the Moon's path. This should be self-evident from my link above.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tumeni on May 16, 2019, 08:09:44 AM
No, Tom.  On a globe Earth the paths are not perfect arcs because there are two independent movements involved: the Earth's rotation on its axis, and the moon's orbit around the Earth.

Both of those movements are constant, not erratic.

.. but they're not aligned with each other. And the surface of the Earth under the shadow, were the Earth to remain stationary, would describe a partial semi-circle, aligned with the Moon's movement.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Bad Puppy on May 16, 2019, 11:05:42 AM
A question regarding Oppolzer's map, Tom. Is this the flat earth map you believe is accurate in the layout and size of its land masses?  You are referencing his map for these paths as being accurate for a flat earth.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tom Bishop on May 16, 2019, 11:08:23 AM
Seemingly the wiki and FE cannot demonstrate how the Total Solar Eclipse of July 2nd 2019 is predicted specifically under FE map and conditions. So I guess that's that.

Austrian astronomer Theodor von Oppolzer worked it out using a FE map and the Saros Cycle. See: https://wiki.tfes.org/Solar_Eclipse

The paths make perfect arcs, unlike the Round Earth model.

Are you that desperate to disingenuously claim that Theodor von Oppolzer worked it out using an FE map?

What about the other hemisphere of the FE Map he worked out? It's called a globe.

(https://i.imgur.com/AUw8pMU.jpg?1)

Did you compare the two maps?

Those arcs in those paths are more distorted than the Northern map. It appears that you did not think about your argument very much.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: WellRoundedIndividual on May 16, 2019, 11:20:23 AM
That is not a flat earth map. That is a representation of the earth on a map that only shows "...the earth north of the south temperate zone."

And as also shown by Stack, Oppolzer created a second map representing the earth south of the south temperate zone.  Both are merely projections. Give it up, Tom. You and the Wiki entry are presenting a falsehood of someone else's work.

Also, the text that the Wiki cites that cites Oppolzer believes the earth is round. Just read the rest of the text. Oppolzer was not a flat earther. His map is not a map of a flat earth. It is a projection of a section of a round earth.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tom Bishop on May 16, 2019, 11:24:11 AM
And as also shown by Stack, Oppolzer created a second map representing the earth south of the south temperate zone.

And the paths are perfect arcs in one map, and are distorted in the other.

Quote
Oppolzer was not a flat earther.

No one ever said that he was.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: WellRoundedIndividual on May 16, 2019, 11:27:08 AM
Thats besides the point. Its not a map of a flat earth! Therefore you cannot claim anything about it being true for a flat earth - just because you like the paths to be in perfect arcs, does not make an argument true for the earth being flat.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tom Bishop on May 16, 2019, 11:49:11 AM
Okay. Tell us why the Northern centered map has the eclipses in perfect arcs, as opposed to the globe map or any projection layout.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Rama Set on May 16, 2019, 12:01:33 PM
Okay. Tell us why the Northern centered map has the eclipses in perfect arcs, as opposed to the globe map or any projection layout.

Tell us why you would accept any FE idea that is using a map when you have said numerous times that no FE map exists?  Surely you must be skeptical of this model since you freely admit that distances between locations on Earth are unknown?  It would be a remarkable coincidence that this produced perfect arcs, as you say, by accident.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: WellRoundedIndividual on May 16, 2019, 12:19:46 PM
Because its a different projection? If I made it a different shape of a map, I would get a different plot of the path.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Rama Set on May 16, 2019, 02:21:24 PM
Because its a different projection? If I made it a different shape of a map, I would get a different plot of the path.

Who are you talking to?
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: WellRoundedIndividual on May 16, 2019, 02:23:23 PM
Okay. Tell us why the Northern centered map has the eclipses in perfect arcs, as opposed to the globe map or any projection layout.


Sorry, missed the quote reference. My comment was in response to Tom.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: spherical on May 16, 2019, 04:49:41 PM
Wow... the Oppolzer northern hemisphere 1900-1918 eclipses map posted on FE wiki Eclipses, as a reference to promote FE, had a hidden twin map for the South Pole (Antarctic continent) as center.  That is fantastic.  So, FE now improved, it is double-sided.  See how Australia's shape is more real. I wonder which way UA pushes it.   

Calculating here how Sun and Moon, both at 4800km altitude and 48km in diameter could promote the strange total eclipse path on  11/13/2012, changing more than 30° of latitude in a matter of few hours, considering only a small 12° of circling difference (longitude) between Sun and Moon in 24 hours See, same altitude, can only promote a straight down vertical shadow, total or partial, never angled.    July/22/2028 will have more than 40 degrees of latitude change.  FE behavior is amazing.  Someone may say the Moon is way down below the Sun, with a chaotic circling path (we don't observe that in the real world), but both Sun and Moon being 48km in diameter the projected umbra shadow will never be wider then 48km, the minimum noted all times was never smaller than 120km. 

A lot of things don't add up. FErs scientists and high knowledge specialists need urgent to define and post the right numbers.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: 9 out of 10 doctors agree on May 16, 2019, 04:55:33 PM
If you guys want to know how prediction of the eclipses work, open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic. That's how it's predicted. It's all there. If you are curious about the details, look into it. It has nothing to do with the Wiki.
Here: http://eclipsewise.com/help/de405-predictions.html (http://eclipsewise.com/help/de405-predictions.html)
Quote
The coordinates of the Sun used in these eclipse predictions have been calculated on the basis of the JPL DE405 solar system ephemeris. This ephemeris consists of computer representations of the positions, velocities and accelerations of major Solar System bodies, tabulated at equally spaced intervals of time, covering the span 1599 Dec 09 to 2201 Feb 20. Beginning in 2003, the JPL DE405 has been the basis of the Astronomical Almanac. See Jet Propulsion Laboratory Developmental Ephemeris for more information of the JPL ephemerides.
So not using the Saros cycle like you say it is.

It says that the model was only used to get the position of the sun, not to predict the eclipse.

Do some searching and you will find that JPL DE405 is based on perturbation prediction.
It models the positions of the Sun, the Moon, and every known planet, using Newtonian gravity, general relativity, and some tidal-force effects studied. This information is one link away from the page I linked.

You're intent on driving this "perturbation" point for every simulation that has ever been used, yet you very clearly either didn't actually do those searches you're talking about, or cherrypicked what you found. If you show me some sources and provide quotes for debate then I'll take the claim seriously.
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: spherical on May 16, 2019, 08:06:16 PM
Here the animation of what will be the July 2nd 2019 solar eclipse... large penumbra, small umbra.
Watch and learn

(https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEanimate/SEanimate2001/SE2019Jul02T.GIF)
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tumeni on May 16, 2019, 08:06:55 PM
Those arcs in those paths are more distorted than the Northern map.

And ... so what?
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: rodriados on May 17, 2019, 12:40:52 AM
If you guys want to know how prediction of the eclipses work, open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic. That's how it is predicted. It's all there. If you are curious about the details, look into it. It has nothing to do with the Wiki.
That's nice! They also say the Earth is round in there. Should I read that as well?
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: Tumeni on May 18, 2019, 04:27:42 PM
Here's the path of the Jul 2019 one, centred on the point of maximum eclipse, not on the South Pole.

http://www.eclipsewise.com/solar/SEprime/2001-2100/SE2019Jul02Tprime.html (http://www.eclipsewise.com/solar/SEprime/2001-2100/SE2019Jul02Tprime.html)
Title: Re: Total Eclipse July 02 2019
Post by: spherical on May 22, 2019, 05:15:07 PM
If you guys want to know how prediction of the eclipses work, open any astronomy textbook or consult any astronomy source on the topic. That's how it is predicted. It's all there. If you are curious about the details, look into it. It has nothing to do with the Wiki.

I got really confused now.

1.) There is a real world where we live and observe things.
2.) There is a controversy about this world to be an oblate spheroid and related conspiracies, so Flat Earth Theory was created.
3.) Based on that (2), Flath Earth Society Forum was created.
4.) On this Forum (3) a Wiki was created to explain how this our real world (1) works based on 2.

So, according to Tom Bishop, when participants try to understand something from 1 on 2, they should NOT rely on 3 and 4 ??
If you really want to make some points on 2 upon educated and not ignorant people, it is better to be prepared to answer all kinds of questions on 4.
If when things got ugly, you say 4 is not the place for answers, what the purpose of 4 (and 3) anyway?